Members Daily Post: 30/07/18 (complete)

Tips x5 + write ups,Section 1 (comp), test zone, Galway pointers, main report

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Ayr

2.00 – My Valentino (micro class) G3 10/1 UP

2.30 – Redarna (m class) I3 9/1 WON 8.1/1>13/2

3.00 – Hillgrove Angel (m TJC) 14,30 G3 22/1 UP 16/1 

3.30 – Chinese Spirit (m TJC) 14,30 G3 6/1 UP 9/2 

4.30 – Dark Defender (m runs) ES+ I3 9/1 S3A UP

5.00 –

Cheeni (m TJC) I3 G3 25/1 UP

Corton Lass (m dist)  20/1 UP

Kibaar (m dist) G1 9/1 S6 WON 9/1>6/1  (9.05 BFSP)

 

Windsor

7.50 –

Casement (all hncps 5 yrs,all) 14,30 ES+ I1 G3 6/1 S3A# S6 

Quality Seeker (all hncps 5 yrs, all) w1 ES+ H3 3/1 S3A 

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

2.10 – Kilmurvy (hncp chase, m class move) I1 4/1 WON 4/1>3/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/186,65p, +5.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +146)

Daily Tips

2.30 Ayr – Redarna – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/BV) 9/1 (gen) (10p R4) WON 8.1/1>13/2

3.00 Ayr – Hillgrove Angel – 1 point win– 20/1 (bet365) 18/1 (gen) UP

3.30 Ayr – Chinese Spirit – 1 point win – 13/2 (bet365) 6/1 (gen) UP sometimes this game leaves you scratching your head..no attempt to get him prominent there which was odd,usually races on pace..was neck and neck LTO with winner,with ground in favour etc. Thumped. Odd, horse never looked entirely happy mind. 

4.30 Ayr – Dark Defender – 1 point win– 7/1 (gen) UP 9/1..can’t complain with that, in with a chance for most of way, a decent 4th. Unexposed one took it who got the run up the rail. On that evidence he’ll be winning a weak Ayr handicap soon enough, even more rain would be welcome.

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Festival Tips

8.10 Galway – Maze Runner – 1 point win– 13/2 (Lad/BetfS/PP) 13/2 (gen)

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That’s all for tipping content today. 

 

Redarna – i thought 9/1 or so looked a shade generous for this CD winner, having his second start of the season. He has always gone well with cut in the ground and hopefully there is plenty of good to soft around, and the softer the better really so any more rain would be welcome. His last win was over CD in a C6, 6 starts back last July – well, it was this very race. This is his first run back in a C6 since but he’s been consistent. For one that needs 7f+ with some cut, returning over 6f on GF, from a poor draw, may not have suited him LTO. With any luck it was just a run to blow the cobwebs away and he will be spot on here. Of course he may not have come to the boil yet but i’d like to think this has been a plan. Jimmy S jumps back on, the horse moves back up in trip, on more preferred going, drops back into C6 and back to a CD that he’s proven over. In what looked an open race with plenty having questions, his price looked generous enough. He is usually a hold up horse which means he will want a pace to aim at and will need some luck in running. Hopefully he gets there in time.

Hillgrove Angel – a bit of a punt but the trainer is in very good form and the price lured me in. He returned after 600+ days off LTO but was up there for quite a time, over an inadequate trip. This horse has form on all sorts of going and he is now 1lb below his last winning mark. IF he were to repeat his run at Muss 4 starts ago (July 2016!) then he would out-run these odds. It could be that he’s now gone at the game but the ground shouldn’t be an issue, he stays well, and I suspect PJ will have him in the right spot,just behind the pace. I thought this race looked open and the race he ran in LTO on his return has worked out well, throwing up 5 winners to date. It’s just whether he can return to some of his best form. If he does we will be on the edge of our seats.

Chinese Spirit – maybe a double for trainer/jockey here but in truth i’d take one of them winning for sure. Three things interested me here really… 1 the return to some ground with some juice in/not rattling quick, 2. the return to Ayr, where both of his career wins have been to date and 3. PJ jumping back on for the first time this season, since last October. He was on him when last winning here. He does have to prove he is up to C4, but many of these do in truth and he is only 4/fairly lightly raced still. He should be fit now, and clearly didn’t like the GF at Hamilton when last seen, but still ran well. He arrives in form, his trainer is red hot, PJ is riding out of his skin and he likes the track. He also races prominently and will either lead or just track the pace, in the perfect spot. 6s seemed fair to my eyes anyway.

Dark Defender…well I had no idea Nick had tipped this one when I waded in, and he would appear to have got a bigger price. But, value is in the eye of the beholder at the time you look and I don’t like to beat myself up about long gone prices etc. I thought 7s still seemed a few points too big and he should have been the same price as the Godolphin horse at 9/2…that is all in the context of IF he returned to his best form, including a demolition job against Kenny The Captain here last July, over CD in a C4, which was also his last win. He drops back into a C4 for the first time in a few starts and more importantly returns to a track with some cut. I’m a tad buggered today I fear if the ground is still riding good/fast enough, especially for this one, but I think it should be ok. He is another who likes it soft but GS is fine. If he returned to the form of that Doncaster run a few starts back, off 7lb lower (4lb effectively) he’d be right in there pitching. Phil Makin jumps on for the first time in an age and he’s won twice on him and is riding well/in form. The yard are also going better than they have been. When on song he races up with the pace/leads, and i hope they try and make all again here. He could take some pegging back if they do. I thought most in here had as many questions to answer esp if there is genuine cut in the ground.

Maze Runner… to Galway I go… I had a flick through the pointers below and wanted to have a go at this one. Mullins is 5/22,9p in all flat handicaps at the track in the last 5 years, 3/3 over CD. His yard is on fire again, 11/20,16p in the last 14 days. This one makes handicap debut and he is 0/5,2p with such types on the flat here. His overall record with handicap debutants isn’t great, but he does tend to do ok at the Festivals with them. This one has some ok maiden form and while he has to build on that last run, there is a chance he needed it and/or also found the ground too quick. The flat track has gone soft after plenty of rain and he may relish it over this trip. He races prominently and there is a chance he tries to lead. I thought plenty of others around him in the market had soft to prove, having been racing/winning on fast ground. Trainer/jockey are 4/14,6p when teaming up on the flat and hopefully they can add to it here. With any luck he can outstay/gallop this lot from the front and gain his first win. Oh, and also build on Willie’s stats of 5/16,8p, +23 with 3 year olds in flat handicaps. Is there a more talented trainer across the codes? I don’t think so.

That’s the lot for today. 5 darts fired, hopefully a return of sorts!

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

3.30 Ayr – Two For Two

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Report: Goodwood+ Galway  CLICK HERE>>> *

This pulls together everything I have so far…all the trainer/jockey/owner pointers, + trends/stats for 6 races inc Galway Plate/Hurdle. I’ve only focused on the Class 2 handicaps at Goodwood for now. I just have Saturday’s races to complete. As always, use/ignore as you please…but if you use any content to home in on a horse or two, do post a comment, pre race! 🙂

*NOTE..I used HorseRaceBase when mapping these out (they had Day x next to race,in the big race trends bit) but it appears some may have moved around and not be on the days I thought! There is a 1m4f C2 handicap HRB has down on day 5, but that is Wednesday, for example.

 

Galway Day 1

Willie Mullins Micro

5.20 – Cool Colonnade / Easy Game / Shoulda Lied

7.40 – Chelkar / Limini / Uradel

8.10 – Maze Runner

8.40 – Royal Rendezvous

Other pointers

5.20 – Lucky Icon (TM, 12/1< best)

5.55 – The Major General (JOB, 5/1<, also JP 5/1<)

7.40 – Grand Partner / Top of The Ra ((TM, 12/1< best)

8.10 – Subjudice (JOB, 5/1<)

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. Katheefa Wolverhampton Monday 18:15 1pt e/w Price available 7/1
    Speed Company Ayr Monday 16:00 1pt e/w Price available 10/1
    Dark Defender Ayr Monday 16:30 1pt e/w Price available 12/1

  2. No joy on the AW today, so -5pts.

    Results Update
    w/c 23 July: Staked 22pts, Profit 4.0pts, ROI 18.18% or £20 to £5 stakes. Still 16.5pts up in May with 2 meetings to go.

    Tomorrow’s AW racing comes from Lingfield and Wolves. Qualifiers below:
    Lingfield
    1.50 Giant’s Treasure 9/2
    2.20 Betsalottie 10/1
    2.50 Exec Chef 4/1
    3.50 Dorian Gray 11/1

    Wolves
    7.25 Art Echo 4/1 & Nezar 11/1
    9.00 Sir Gnet 4/1 & Noneedtotellme 33/1 (EW)

    1pt win each except where noted EW

    Good Luck

        1. Nice one Martin. I’ve been following without tipping. Decided to have a nibble today at 11/1. Cheers

  3. Flat Jockey Profits
    No Joy with the one qualifier today so 1pt loss. No qualifiers for Monday.

    NTF Summer Stunners
    Today’s one qualifier was a NR.

    One qualifier for Monday
    Newton Abbot 3.40 Tamarillo Grove 6/1

    After getting the Class of today’s qualifier wrong, thought I’d better do a more thorough job of checking against the notes, which are:
    All wins on G or G-F – check
    All wins over 2m 1f or shorter – check
    All wins left-handed – check
    All systems go!!

    Good Luck

        1. Yeah I did wonder about the ground last night but it seems he’s got over his dislike for softer ground by coming home in front. Cracking ride from Sean Houlihan.

  4. 6.40 Windsor – Cracking Dream 11/2

    Cox is 5 from 6 with his 2 year olds at Windsor in the month of July since 2016, including some first time out runners. Bred by Oasis dream who have a 16% s/r over course and distance. Kirby on board is obviously a plus with his record at Windsor.

    Fav is a Gosden horse but he is 0/3 with his 2 year olds here in July. Hannon also has a good record with the same criteria but not had a first time out runner amongst his winners.

  5. Looks like some good results for the group over the weekend, always great to see!

    Chris M Selections:
    Ayr
    14:00 – Inglorious (5/1 gen)
    15:30 – Kharbetation (7/1 gen)

    Lingfield
    15:50 – Honourbound (11/1 gen)

    Just the three from me today, last weeks results to follow. Makes for some good reading for the second week running.

    1. Re-Cap w/c 23/7/18:
      19 bets – 5 winners and 1 N/R
      S/R: 27.78%
      ROI: 108.88%
      P/L: +19.6 pts

      Overall:
      205 bets – 44 winnners and 5 N/R
      S/R: 22.00%
      ROI: +16.14%
      P/L: +32.28 pts

      Another great week and signs my luck is turning around. July is looking like a very profitable month which is more than welcome after a poor June.

      1. great stuff Chris, decent set of result building up there. You’d take that repeating every 200 bets as minimum, 16% long term ROI with a 22% sr not to be sniffed at. Keep up the good work.
        Josh

        1. Cheers Josh. Hoping these past two weeks are signs my bad spell is behind me. If I could repeat that every 200 bets I would be one happy punter!

  6. COLINS BETS
    Lingfield
    1.50 Kasbah
    AYR
    2.00 Mecca’s Spirit
    3.00 Question Of Faith
    3.00 Braes Of Lochalsh
    5.00 Brendan
    Windsor
    7.15 Bahamian Dollar

  7. A busy week on the racing front coming up. So I am up at six to get an early start, including dog walking. Today I notice that Saeed Bib Suroor sends two up to Ayr for handicaps. 4.00 Dubai Horizon and 4.30 Desert Frost. They are being rode by seperate ‘local’ jockeys and so the stable does not send a stable jockey up there. Logic tells me that it is a long way to go for the sea air from Newmarket and so why would they send them unless they had a good chance, or one has a good chance and the other is going to keep him company? Any thoughts?

    At Galway it looks very competitive. Dermot Weld has an off year in 2017 but usually goes well at this meeting. Today I like Viking Hoard in the 5.55; Rapture’s Delight in the 7.05; Chelkar in the 7.40. Day one may tell us something about who is in from for the meeting?

    1. Hi Martin,

      I was re-reading Alan Potts ‘Against the Crowd’ over the wknd and he mentioned a good point in relation to your musing “Logic tells me that it is a long way to go for the sea air from Newmarket”.
      His opinion is why would a trainer send something that far if it was any good, it should be winning at Newmarket or somewhere more local.
      Also a lot of these ones are over bet on that assumption. It’s an interesting point as I like yourself am/was in that school of thinking.
      I accept the book was written over 20yrs ago but the point still holds true, what’s your thoughts?

    2. I think Joe has nailed it on the head. These types are always over hyped and the general plan is to take them on and take it on the chin if they beat you.

      1. I have not backed them. I take the points made which make sense. I guess Godolphin have ample funds and so do not have to worry about expense and so Ayr is as good as anywhere. Top jockeys are likely having a day off before Goodwood anyway.

        Looking at Wolverhampton Gavin Cromwell sends two over from Ireland, 8.00 Sbraase and 9.00 Wavepoint. Both seem reasonably well fancied and have solid jockeys aboard. So the same question really, with plenty of meetings in Ireland why send two over to race on the sand at Wolverhampton with low prize money? The logic of this I do not get.

        1. I saw an interesting tweet last night about Sbrasse :
          “Joined Levins from Tate when rated 83, useless when with Levins & dropped to 51, makes his debut for Cromwell tomorrow.
          At Wolverhampton he’s won a maiden & off 73 & 78. He’s placed off 77, 77, 78, 78, 83 & 84
          Runs off 51 on debut for Cromwell”

          Now 5/2 from 7/2 – can’t think of a reason why he sends so many over the irish sea, maybe he’s found it more cost effective or more lucrative or both!

          1. Matt from GGz did an a piece a while back about Irish flat raiders which showed a decent SR but they’re no longer profitable to follow blind.

          2. Very interesting piece Joe afraid over many years the Irish trainers have made a mockery of our Handicapping system,whether it be NH,Flat or AW,they come over and the horse can be 25/1 in the betting and they will win with a ton in hand.
            BHA and the Irish Handicapper are two different bodies for me every Irish horse should have to carry 7lb more each and every race in the UK.
            Over the years the Dinosaur’s at the BHA have done nothing to stop this,Cheltenham Festival alone they are winning many handicaps with horses way in front of our handicappers.
            Love the BHA really, no i don’t.

          3. I didn’t realize that Saeed was Irish Colin. (sorry couldn’t resist) The funny thing there is when it comes to sprinters it is the opposite and English sprinters are very well treated when going over to Ireland keep winning the big sprints.

          4. Tut tut Nick
            British raiders to Ireland are mostly competing in better class races Listed and upwards and the odd Heritage HC not at Dundalk AW,so many of the top Irish sprinters have raced over here so would imagine ratings would be a lot closer and doubt if their would be a lot of difference in advantage to the British Runners.

          5. Joe
            What a great spot with the tweet.
            I gave the former a single bet and made it a double.
            Doubled my days profit.

            Many thanks.

            Mike

      2. LOL if McDonald had kept the rail with that head carriage he would have won and everyone would be saying how easy the game is celebrating a 30/1 Double. Hamilton is so underrated. Was that George Downing on Tommy G ?

    3. Plenty of racing in Scotland in June,July and August,Newmarket trainers will send up some horses that will stay up their for many weeks at a time and run on the Scottish circuit,they use satellite stables to stable them,like the Americans and Australians do when sending their horses over here to race.
      Used to be a system to back Newmarket runners in Scotland when the Daily Mail Newmarket correspondent tipped at the Scottish courses but he only tips a Nap and next best now so that is obsolete.
      Some look at Longest traveler but the Newmarket horse may have only traveled 30 miles to race at Ayr,not whatever the distance is from Newmarket.

  8. OBVIOUSLY NOT TIPS ( I AM NOT A TIPSTER 🙂 )
    AS JOSH SAYS JUST MY MUSINGS ( OUTLOUD)
    2.00 AYR MECCA’S SPIRIT 2.50PTS WIN (trainer in form and quick re-appearance all within trainers m.o.)
    2.00 ayr PALAVICINI RUN 0.5 E/W (trainer in form)
    Think Miss L A Perratt is up to no good here when she throws a few at one race it’s not necessarily the most fancied one that does the best and this jockey is on the trainers approved list 🙂
    2.50 ling EXEC CHIEF 2.50PTS WIN
    (ANY RIDES ON COLTS/GELDINGS @ LINGFIELD / NOT HANDICAPS / 1-3 IN BETTING / 5F-1M2F / 1-3RD TOP WEIGHTS RIDING THE FAVOURITE ON THE TAPETA/ALL WEATHER COURSES)
    3.00 AYR HILLGROVE ANGEL 1.00PT E/W ( TRAINER EXCELS AT THIS DISTANCE)
    3.50 LINGFIELD DUBAI LANDMARK 0.50 PT E/W ( THE TRAINERS GO TO JOCKEY FOR EEKING OUT A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT)
    4.00 AYR MUTAMADED 1.00 PT E/W( 5YO RUNNERS AT AYR WITH THIS JOCKEY )
    5.00 AYR JUST DESSERTS 0.50 E/W ( TRAINER DOES WELL WITH QUICK RE-APPEARANCES)

    THANKS ALL THE ABOVE WRITINGS MOST INTERESTING AND USEFUL AND ALL NOTED APPROPRIATELY 🙂

    GL
    BC
    🙂

  9. EMMMMMMMM …. i also think young pj mcdonald could have potential bonanza here today at ayr … have used a little bit of the sds dividends from yesterday on various small acca’s etc 🙂
    gl
    bc 🙂

  10. Hi all, late post…. Sorry.

    Like Brian, I’m on Palavinic run 2.00 Ayr.
    Diplomatico. See 08/07/18 post…4.10 N.A
    Lingfield price gone but on at 20s chute causeway 2.50.
    3.50 suachiehall Street….goes well after a break.
    Wolverhampton 7.25 kommander kirkup 28s
    8.30 papelaine 25s
    Windsor 7.15 may remain 25s

    Great work yesterday Brian!

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