Members Daily Post: 29/07/18 (complete)

Section 1 (complete) , test zone, 2x micros/research

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Pontefract

2.30 – 

Multellie (3yo+, + micro TJC/going/class move) ES+ H1 I1 11/2 S1 S3A#  WON 11/2>6/4 (30p r4) 3.85/1> 6/4

Sempre Presto (m class move) 7/1 2nd 8/1 

5.10 – 

Scoundrel (3yo+, + m going) ES+ 8/1 S3A UP

Oriental Splendour (m dist) 13/2 UP

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

2.10 – Get Ready Freddy (m TJC/dist) 14,30 ES+ H1 I3 3/1 S3A#

3.45 – Theatrebar (m TJC) w2 14,30 ES+ H1 I1 3/1 S3A# UP

5.20 –

Loch Linnhe (all hncps + hncp chase) ES I3 16/1 S2A S3 S5  3rd 16/1>15/2 (40p R4) 9.6/1>15/2 

Mrs Robbin (m TJC) w2 w1 14,30 ES+ H1 7/4 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 17/182,64p, +0.3) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +146)

Daily Tips

NONE…i’ll take the day off… i’m not sure I can even make an educated guess at the going…Ponte is still GF but it’s raining now and expected to continue through to the afternoon…they haven’t watered since Wednesday so it may soak up plenty…so it could ride well still, or be soft+ and everything in between. I won’t bother. It’s also raining at Uttoxeter but only ‘light’ apparently, currently good, good to soft in places. I have no idea what that going will be come race time, on watered ground. Who knows. I’ll just leave it today and a blank Sunday for the racing brain before next week isn’t a bad thing.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

Top of the Class

2.00 Pont – Flawless Jewel WON 2/7>1/4

 

Jumps

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

2.10 Uttox – Chasing Headlights UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Jamie Osborne

After BC tipped up his 16/1 winner of the last at Ascot (was a section 1 qual,but sadly not a strategy qual and in truth I was nowhere near tipping him…but the yard was hot,unexposed on turf,1st headgear), I did take a look at his record with first time headgear…

So for the last 10 years, + 2018 to date…

  • All runners 1st time headgear: 132 / 17 wins / 37p / 13% sr / +7 SP / +30 BFSP / AE 0.97
    • Blinkers: 2/58,14p, -30
    • Visor: 0/7,0p
    • Hood: 3/6,3p, +12
    • Hood + Blinkers: 2/8,3p, +42
    • Cheekpieces: 10/53,16p,…+6…+14 BFSP

If I just focus on class 5 or 6 races, 1st time Cheekpieces or Hood: 42 bets / 12 wins / 14p / 29% sr / +30 SP / +40 BFSP / AE 1.73

(that’s before today’s winner)

Do with that as you please.

 

*

Nigel Tinkler

I’ve probably missed the boat this season but i’ve had a few trainers saved in HRB for a while who have historically done well in Flat Turf Handicaps, for 3 year olds only (3YO)

I’ve noticed he’s had a few winners recently. His runners in such races (3YO only handicaps on the turf) since the start of 2013, sent off 11/1 or shorter SP

106 bets / 35 wins / 53p / 33% win SR / +99 SP / +118 BFSP / AE 1.78

  • 12/1>20/1: 3/49,11p, +28 BFSP
  • 22/1+ : 0/49,3p

He is 12/46,14p, +45 BFSP so far in 2018… (insert expletive here)

*

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

36 Responses

  1. Josh
    Well done with your Thru the card at Ascot today. Had some small change on them to help a with a good day finished of with C of C.
    A friend of mine who has been doing the horses for more years that I can remember but has no IT whatsoever but has advised me to follow Sir Mark Prescott at this time of year and towards the autumn especially with his outsiders.
    Could you have a look at your HRB to see if there is any merit in what he says.

    Cheers for all your work and what a great site.

    Mike

  2. 3 winners and 9.5pts profit on the AW after NR’s and Rule 4.

    Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers below:
    1.50 Caracas 10/1
    3.20 Foxrush Take Time 14/1 & Ventura Crest 11/2
    3.55 Windsorlot 14/1
    4.25 Racehorse 5/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

  3. Flat Jockey Profits

    No joy again today. 6pts loss for full list and 2pts loss for filtered list.

    One qualifier for Sunday

    Daniel Tudhope (Pontefract)
    4.35 Extra Large 6/1

    NTF Summer Stunners
    4.35 Ponte – Vosne Romanee 4/1 (PP/BF) 7/2 generally.
    Goes for the hat-trick but steps up in Class from C3 to C2 which doesn’t quite fit the recommendation.

  4. Re C of C I noted the drop in trip and the switch to a straight track as other likely causes of improvement. A careful jockey booking too. JO tried to keep this one quiet but they were on.

    1. hmm, yes, in hindsight as I look back that was clearly more of a decent poke than I gave credit for. Some decent AW form, still open to progress esp on turf- only run to date at Sandown after a break, had been running well- hampered the last day, this was a slight drop in class also into a lesser C3, down in trip, first run straight track as you say, headgear, a track where you can just back his runners blind, and topped off with jockey booking. Oh and the yard was ‘in form’. Damn! Much to ponder there, sounds like you had a go which is the main thing.

  5. Interested to see Loch Linnhe hit a number of stats in the 5.20. I had already backed him on the basis of his trainer having won this race twice in the last 10 years from two runners. He seems to prefer the softer ground he’ll get today and trainer had a winner yesterday. Looks good value at 16. 4 places with Sky.

  6. Just wondering if josh’s box of tricks could put my mind at rest on headgear for the trainer Gay Kelleway……… she has one today in blinkers ………. but my hunch and memory is that it is only when she applies the visor for the first time ….. that bells need to start ringing in my head ??

    looks like a no bet today for me ..unless i try a appleby/sds doubles and trebles on all the front runners they have today ???
    gl all
    bc

    1. Yep, I think I touched on that briefly at some point in the distant past, but didn’t think much of it…I probably should have…
      last 10 years, GK with 1st time visor… 11/53,19p, +99 SP, +146 BFSP
      -Outside of handicaps, 7/27,12p, +83

      IF you just focused on those with 0-1 career win (so logically still unexposed/yet to take advantage of their mark,and less likely to be an older regressive horse,where you’re just trying everything you can think of…and also, Visor a bit more friendly, scares you more than CP, but not as much as blinkers- which can just make young horses boil over say/do too much/not work at all…so some logic why visor would work best and she clearly knows when to apply it/race types etc)…

      so 1st visor, 0-1 win in career to date… all race types/codes… 10/36,15p, +114, +160 BFSP
      5/11,6p, +100 since start of 2017.

      Josh

      p.s yep not much doing for other headgear, esp blinkers 1st time, visor is the place to focus, systematically at least, albeit she has odd winner with other headgear.

          1. yep, i have Osborne and the Kellaway one saved, so no reason can’t post up in test zone as and when. Wont be many quals but usually a nice price, as often horse appears out of form etc I suspect.

      1. booooom !!!! trebles and yankee and acca !!! 🙂 easy like a sunday morning 🙂

        hope a few followed me with some shrapnel on them 🙂 .. seemed the only fun bet for me today ………….. 🙂

        as we say over here on y va !!!!!!!!!!! 🙂

        gl :
        mr c 🙂

        1. Where have you been all this time Brian haha. Your first two ‘tipping’ comments/musings, appear to have gone rather well! Well done. Sadly I wasn’t as wise as yourself or Max, and didn’t have a penny on. Suddenly my day out paintballing appears rather more expensive than it could have done haha. Top work. And we will all owe you a drink when Osborne and GK mop up in future with 1st time headgear runners also!
          Josh

  7. COLINS BETS

    5.10 Pontefract Musharrif

    Cannot for the life of me really believe that Pontefract is GD/FIRM for Sheffield is approx 50 miles away and we are having very heavy rain.
    Musharrif’s last win was on GD/Soft in the same class and is well drawn,also won on GD/Firm,so for me worth a bet.

    1. tricky Colin, I have no idea how well it drains in truth! They haven’t watered since Wed, and most tracks can put on up to 5mm I thin to maintain decent going when hot, and they are forecast 10mm today, to clear up by racing. So, it may not be that bad/going will be good at worse, or it doesn’t drain that well and will ride on soft side/water may seep to inside and be a bias, or they get more than expected and softer! I suppose you can make educated guesses at the price but I for one couldn’t be bothered. Best of luck.

    2. I know ground conditions do matter a lot to some horses but I think that it is overstated whatever you read or listen to. I hear pundits on TV or on numerous podcasts I wade through talk about what may happen if it rains a bit etc. On the flat and the amounts of rain we get in the summer generally I think it makes minimal difference. If it is genuinely soft after much rain then fair enough. Just my thoughts and it is even raining in Kent at present!

      1. Cracksman on saturday did not run in the King George because of the fast ground,the race that it had been trained for all season,Gosden knew that it would not do itself justice on those conditions,thankfully the connections pulled it out saving punters losing their cash,on the day.
        Clerk’s of the courses do not want to advertise GD/Soft going early for they know many trainers will not turn up with their horses and the course will lose money on the public not turning up along with food and drink sales will be down.
        Trainers have traveled from Lambourn to Pontefract with their horse,cost of diesel along with 2 stable staff time and wages not forgetting the fee for running,and possibly the owners taking the day off work, they tend to run the horse even though they know the horse does not handle the conditions,so it is an
        exercise gallop in reality.
        My first port of call is to see if the horse that i am thinking of backing handles the going,and in most cases that it has won on it in the past,my opinion is that the going is the most important factor before contemplating having a bet,along with other factors.

        1. At this time of year the ‘change in going’ is usually very minimal I think. And how do you know what the going is until you watch the first race? The stick plungers are just giving an opinion based upon how deep it goes in the earth. As has been said before here, you cannot trust the stick. Cracksman was never going to run. Oppenheimer is Chairman of De Beers and so can afford a day out for the horse. I wonder if they had a test with the horse in the stable area to see how he played up or not after last time? With Frankie missing as well. It would have been interesting if Cracksman had run though. The Arc will be more up his street.

  8. Inniscastle Lad Uttoxeter 14:10 1pt e/w-Price available 9/1
    Knight Of Noir Uttoxeter 15:45 1pt e/w-Price available 12/1

  9. thats what this excellent is all about … share and share alike 🙂

    another two to look at ( all be it a bit late for this season )

    r beckett : 3yo’s fto or first run of the season ( especially fillies !! )
    m w bell : fto or first run of the season

    i made hay earlier in the season especially on the beckett’s .. just don’t know if i was just lucky to catch the right one at the right ? ….. just wondering if your box of tricks could shed any light on those at all ???

    thanks again
    a very happy mr bc 🙂

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.