Members Daily Post: 28/07/18 (complete)

Tipsx5, Section 1 (comp), test zone , big race shortlists, ascot ‘through the card’ thoughts

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ascot 

3.00- 

Flaming Spear (micro class) I3 9/1 UP

Lucymai (m class) w2 I3 66/1 

Il Primo Sole (m age) 14,30 12/1 UP

4.50 – Cliffs of Capri (m class) 14 H3 I3 16/1 WON 16/1>12/1 

 

Chester

2.35 – Forever A Lady (m dist) w1 14 H1 I3 G1 7/2 S1 S2 S4 UP

3.10 – Confessional (3yo+) w1 H1 I1 G1 6/1 S1 S4 S6 UP

 

York

2.05 – Alfred Hutchinson (m dist move) 14 I3 G1 16/1 S2 S6 

2.40 – Flying Pursuit (m runs) I3 12/1 WON 12/1>9/1 

4.25 – Stormin Tom (m runs) w1 H3 G3 6/1 S5 UP

5.00 – Feline Groovy (all hncps 5 yrs, m class) w2 14,30 ES+ 9/2 S3A UP

 

Newmarket (July)

3.25 – Blizzard (all hncps 5 yrs,all,3yo+) (hncp debut) w1 ES+  11/2 S3A UP

5.40 – Beat The Judge (m age) (hncp debut) 11/1 

 

Salisbury

5.15 – Groundnut (m runs) 14,30 G1 12/1 S6 UP

8.15 – Hernandes (all hncps + m class) 14,30 G1 14/1 S6 

 

Lingfield

8.30 – Shoyd (all hncps,3yo+) 8/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 17/182,64p, +0.3) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +146)

Daily Tips

NONE… i’ll just stick with the two big races below today.

 

Festival Tips

3.00 Ascot

Gallipoli – 1 point win– 66/1 (wh/uniB/BV) 50/1 (gen) UP

Via Serendipity – 1 point win – 28/1 (BV/lad/coral/boyle) 25/1 (gen) 4th

Mukalal – 1 point win– 28/1 (unib) 25/1 (gen) UP

 

2.40 York 

Growl – 1 point win– 15/2 (bet365) , 7/1 (gen) UP

Flying Pursuit – 1 point win– 10/1 (bet365/WH/PP/BetfS/10bet) 9/1 (gen) WON 10/1>9/1

that’s it for ‘festival tips’ as of 10.24, write ups are on the free post…

 

Recent Losing Daily Tips

3.20 Newc – Be Kool (2nd run) UP

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

Top of the Class

4.55 Chest – Zatorious 11/2 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Big race trends… the report below includes…

  • Sat, Ascot International Stakes
  • Sat, York, SkyBet Dash

All HERE>>>

 

Ascot: International Stakes

the first four 10/10 stats in the report above leave nine, inc any 3 year olds for now…

Makzeem, Ripp Orf , Il Primo Sole (3yo), Oh This Is Us, Via Serendipity, Sabador, Chessman, Mukalal, Hajjam

I’ve looked at 6 or pointers or so, most of them 9/10 stats etc, and Mukalal hits them all. That was the case with Skelton’s handicap hurdler last week, and he may still be running. I may find it hard not to have something on him at his price. He goes well for Dane,and if the rain comes that may help…he was on the wrong side LTO and a line can be put through that. One of the more intriguing outsiders anyway, but i’ll have a proper look Sat morning.

 

York: SkyBet Dash

well all the 10/10 stats don’t leave any qualifiers…if I ignore the class move stats and distance move which are small enough samples that leaves 5…

Intisaab, Dashas, Baron Bolt, Related, Watchable. 

There are some strong stats for the unexposed horses, those with 8 or fewer career runs, and 5 or fewer in handicaps… that only leaves one… Enjazaat ... who takes a drop in grade here…and Crowley is up here rather than Ascot but I haven’t looked at the rest of the card to see what he may be here for. But, in a race full of exposed types, this one does have a different profile to the rest. Again, i’ll be back in the morning with any further thoughts/tips.

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Ascot through the card…

for what it’s worth, a quick flick through…

1.50- Angel’s Hideaway WON 9/2 

2.25 – George of Hearts UP / Rum Runner UP

3.00 – covered above UPx3

3.40 – Poets Word WON 7/4

4.15 – Victory Command WON 6/1

4.50 – Normandy Barriere 2nd 4/1

5.20 – Bajan Gold 2nd 4/1

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. Heading to chester tomorrow any thoughts from you guys are much appreciated as ever ! Will back both of the qualifiers

    1. Think Josh put up a system for unexposed Balding handicap runners at Chester before. Theres 1 qualifier tomorrow in the 4.55 – Zatorius.

      Crystal Moonlight in the 3.45 is extremely well bred and won nicely lto so should be a good thing, bit concerned with the jockey change but think it will still win

  2. Flat Jockey Profits

    One winner from the full list but still a loss of 1.5pts. Nothing from the filtered list. Loss of 2pts. 1 NR on both lists.

    Qualifiers for Saturday
    Jim Crowley (York)
    2.40 Enjazaat 7/1
    3.15 Elarqam 15/8*
    5.00 Naqaawa 7/2*

    * Does not qualify for filtered list

    Ryan Moore S2 (Ascot)
    3.40 Hydrangea 16/1

    Good Luck

  3. Meant to say earlier, thank you Ken for the time you are putting in on the jocks stats,much appreciated.

  4. AW racing from Newcastle tomorrow. Qualifiers below:

    1.40 Something Brewing 4/1
    2.10 Donnachies Girl 10/1 & Frown 4/1
    2.45 Indian Chief 13/2 & Rashdan 13/2
    3.20 My Target 13/2
    3.55 Lucky Lucky Man 10/3 & Soldiers Minute 3/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

  5. Saturdays qualifiers.
    14:40 York. Tommy Taylor 11-1 sky 6 places
    15:00 Ascot. Cardsharp 16-1 sky 6 places
    16:50 Ascot. Twin Appeal 14-1
    full result update after tomorrows racing.

  6. Well it was deja-vu all over again from last year but a small profit overall. I have looked at the Gigaset (might add one more in the morning if it hasn’t rained too much) as well as the Newmarket and York cards. Will look at the rest in the morning. One thing to note in case anyone is wondering I have decided after Royal Ascot that in any race with 25+ runners I will be betting slightly smaller so these don’t reflect a lower level of confidence.

    Flying Pursuit York Saturday 14:40 1pt e/w Price available 14/1
    Cardsharp Ascot Saturday 15:00 0.75pt e/w Price available 16/1
    Ultimate Avenue Ascot Saturday 15:00 0.75pt e/w Price available 40/1
    Euginio York Saturday 15:15 1pt e/w Price available 11/1

  7. unless Josh tips something different bets haven’t worked out too bad today with only the 3-00 Ascot with 9 selections looking a bit silly profit wise, probably need to fill all 6 places to make a healthy profit, 4 in the 2-25 and 3 in York 2-40 is fair enough. just one of those big race days you have to stake normally over all your sources.

    1. Agreed. Whatever you do you either ignore the race completely or you stake your normal amounts. Anything halfway house is an error long term.

  8. I had a study Friday evening and found 3 bets worth part exercising the betting bank on.

    3.00 Ascot Rip Orf at 11/ for 5 points and Flaming Spear for 5 points. I think that Rip Orf could be extremely well weighted at 8’8” and has the potential to step up the levels. Flaming Spear is now with Dean Ivory for Tony Bloom. Dean trains a sprinter well and although he has 9’7”, I have to have it on this tricky customer as Dean may have brought him on?

    2.25 Ascot, Enchantment at 11/2 for 8 points. He was impressive LTO and is another who can go up the grades.

    Good luck.

  9. 4.50 ASCOT CLIFFS OF CAPRI 14/1 2.50 PTS E/W = TRAINER IN FORM / FIRST TIME CHEEK PIECES ( NOT SURE OF RECORD BUT EXTRAORDINARY WHEN THIS TRAINER USING 1ST TIME HEADGEAR ! 🙂
    GL 2 ALL 🙂

    BC

    1. Well done BC. Headgear has made all the difference there. Did flick through stat some quals for tipping purposes but must admit wasn’t close to putting him up! Will have a look at his record with headgear etc now haha. Another one for a yard ‘in form’

    2. Brizzie
      Many thanks for Cof C I had a small bet via josh S1 but doubled the stake after reading your post. Got me into profit for the day.
      Keep putting up these gems.

      Mike

    3. 🙂 🙂 🙂 GLAD TO ADD TO AN ALREADY GREAT SITE 🙂 🙂 🙂 ….. I WONDER IF MY SKY BET A/C IS NOW CANCELLED 🙂 🙂 🙂 ( I EVEN DONE THE FORECAST TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY !! 🙂
      PLUNDER WHEN THE TIDE HAS TURNED IN YOUR FAVOUR 🙂
      GL AND KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK JOSH 🙂
      :):):):):):):):):):)

  10. Newcastle Picks all bf prices current
    1.10 Sirus Slew 3.5
    1.40 Traditional Dancer 10.5
    2.10 Tarte Tropizene 7.8
    2.45 1st Snookered 12, 2nd Taqwaa 32, 3rd Desert Ruler 5.5
    3.20 Big Tour 5.1
    3.55 Symposing 11
    4.30 Adventureman 2.88
    5.05 Little Jo 5.2

  11. At last a sp2a josh and nick agreement. When these 3 strike together get the wheel barrow out . Cheers guys for a fantastic day.

    1. Ha, there is some logic to that given neither one influenced by the other. I don’t open sp2a until tips complete and try to avoid reading comments/nicks esp Friday into Sat. Glad he won given what I had on haha. Been a good day whatever now.

  12. Thanks BC, chucked a few quid atCoC on your enthusiastic recommendations and rounded off a nice day! Many thanks! Josh, thanks for Flying Pursuit, maybe the Osborne headgear angle worth some of your time?

    Cheers all

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