Free Daily Post: 28/07/18 (complete)

Big Race Tips x5 + preview

No luck from yesterday’s two daily tips, albeit one ran a decent 3rd on ground which in the end may have stretched him. I didn’t expect it to go that soft but knew it was a risk, so no complaints. Onto today and I have repeated the members’ ‘Festival Tips’…I have started to dip into big flat races more this year, in essence playing with the 55 or so points won at Royal Ascot, mainly thanks to Baccus. Newmarket’s July meeting was frustrating, a case of crossing off the winner last from my shortlists and an agonising nose second at 18/1. But, that’s the nature of these races. Today i’ve focused on the big handicaps from Ascot and York. Last year I tipped Flying Pursuits to win at York and while I didn’t tip in the International Stakes, my shortlist 5 or so included the 50/1 winner, Stamp Hill, for Richard Fahey. That horse was running in a first time visor if my memory serves me right, and today i’ve gone for another 50s+ shot from his yard, this one in first time blinkers…we can but dream…let’s crack on…

 

results summary from members’ post… (with the tips from the free posts, I think we’re up around +310 points since Sept 1st 2017…) Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 17/182,64p, +0.3) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +140)

 

‘Festival’ (big race) Tips

2.40 York 

Growl – 1 point win– 15/2 (bet365) , 7/1 (gen)

Flying Pursuit – 1 point win– 10/1 (bet365/WH/PP/BetfS/10bet) 9/1 (gen)

 

3.00 Ascot

Gallipoli – 1 point win– 66/1 (wh/uniB/BV) 50/1 (gen)

Via Serendipity – 1 point win – 28/1 (BV/lad/coral/boyle) 25/1 (gen)

Mukalal – 1 point win– 28/1 (unib) 25/1 (gen)

 

 

*

York… the rain has arrived and both of these should relish conditions. Not many in this are proven in soft but these two most definitely are and there should be no excuses. Flying Pursuit seemed a bit overpriced to my eyes given his liking for conditions and how he won this race last year. He is well handicapped again and I think the fast ground has done for him this season so far. I tipped him at Hamilton last time out when expecting rain that never arrived, and he just doesn’t put down/pick up when it’s rattling. He should blast out from his low draw and could move over to the far side rail. Whether that side of the track is the place to be, we shall find out, but i’ve got one from either side. Growl…he has some pace to track his side and is well handicapped again, having been around 109 for a time which just seems too high. He ran a very good race in the Stewards Cup last August effectively off 102. IF he were to repeat that run, or the odd placed effort/decent run, in group races, he would win this well enough I think. Fahey has given a positive update and says he couldn’t be going better at home. I get the impression they expect a big run today. Since 2004 there have only been two winners of this in double figure prices, the market usually gets this right. It’s speaking positively for the other Easterby runner who looks to have an ok chance. Enjazaat is the interesting one…were this on faster ground i’d have gone for him I think as he has a different profile to the rest here…however soft is just a bit of an unknown and connections say he wants it quick… he may sluice through it though, but his price at single figures felt short enough in a race like this, given that big unknown. He may win today but is certainly one to watch moving forwards.

Ascot…

there were some stats/trends pointers i’ve used as a guide for this, but I have ignored them for Gallipoli…I just couldn’t resist at this price given that on paper there isn’t loads of pace in this (often when I think that in these big handicaps a load of them blast out and it’s run at a frenetic gallop, so we shall see!). He led the last day and in first time blinkers I just hope they blast out and try and make all up that far side rail. Whether that’s the place to be i’ve no idea, but if he takes to the headgear and settles, he could run a big race. He doesn’t have track experience which is a negative in this race historically and of course he may blow a gasket in this headgear, do too much, and fade out tamely. But I get 66/1 to find out, which is always exciting.

Via Serendipity…well he shows up well on the stats/trends I used and he is just very consistent. He ran very well in the Victoria Cup here on his second run of the season and has run with credit since. He raced prominently two starts back when winning but then was held up the last day, staying on well to get 3rd. I hope that was to keep him ticking over for this, as if racing prominently there he may have won it. I like the fact he stays further and he can race up there. From this draw Harry has the chance to bag the near side rail and he’d be foolish not to try and grab it if he can, and set sail for home. He looked an interesting outsider.

Mukalal…well my hunch is that he may not like quick ground but it’s still an unknown…on the stats/trends/pointers that I used he was the only horse to tick every box for every main stat I looked at…when I get a runner like that, given my approach in these races, when they are this price I find them hard to leave, even if I think they may be out of sorts. He is lightly raced and there will be more to come one day. He has track form and like so many from this ownership, races prominently. He will be up there for a long way in this, it’s just whether he kicks on, or fades as he did at Newmarket LTO. It could be that he is spot on now. In any case, he ticked enough boxes for me to pay to find out. He is the sort of stats/trends pick that if they were to win and I wasn’t on, it’s unforgivable really. I’m more content losing the 1 point then seeing them sluice home unbacked.

Of the rest…well where do you start… clearly it’s likely I haven’t mentioned the winner. Going EW is probably wise but I didn’t want to bet 6 points on the race (1 point EW) and I hate going 1/2 points EW on horses in races like this, but each to their own. I can live with the very quiet fallow periods. Flaming Spear has a favourites chance as he was an eye-catcher the last day. However Ivory’s yard isn’t firing as yet and 6 year olds+ don’t have the best of records in this in recent years, but I won’t be shocked if he goes well, obviously. Given the big priced winners in this in recent years I did focus attention on those 20s+. There are plenty from the Bunbury Cup around 12s, and maybe that’s the formline to focus on, but i haven’t.  Cardsharp is worth a mention just because Fahey and Johnston have done very well in this race in recent years, winning 6 of the last 10 between them! 3 year olds don’t have the best of records, but not too many have tried. He could notch a win for the younger brigade but I was a bit worried about his stamina for a test like this. If he stays, he won’t be far away. Ultimate Avenue is of some interest at a big price also… I thought he was a bit too poor the last day but maybe he needs 7f and the tongue tie returns, for the first time since he’s had a wind op. They must think he needs it and it could make the difference. The trainer expects him to win one of these big handicaps one day. Maybe it will be today and i’ll be annoyed I wasn’t on, we shall see. I’ll mention Oh This Is Us at 40s who also shows up well on my stats. I just thought something may be better handicapped but that would be one of those sickeners were he to win, but you can’t back them all!

I may well not have mentioned the winner of either race above, that’s how it goes in these. Hopefully Growl can ensure a profitable day, (or Flying P, but I’ve a hunch the former may outclass them all today) and we can watch and enjoy the 3pm.

GD with any bets,

Josh

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. Im going to stick my neck out and have a reasonable punt on Scintillating in the 1.50 at Ascot at 4/1.

    Having watched replays of all the horses running in the race tomorrow, this one stood out as a potential Group 1 horse in the way it moved through its first and only race so far. Im hoping Hugh agrees and that my eyes don’t need testing! Usual caveats of 2 year old fillies and inconsistent performances apply

    1. Royal Intervention has been well touted for the race and the 4/1 Scintillating is holding up. Difficult to going in big on such races though unless you have info that most others have missed.

      Good luck.

      1. Personally I care less about the market on 2 year olds compared to older aged horses, it’s often very wrong as there’s more scope for improvement between runs at this age. Much like Hughs comment below the way Scintillating travelled made me think it could be a special horse

        1. Yes, Hugh does like him which is never a bad thing. 4/1 does look value to me, I just dont bet big on 2YO races.

          Good luck and I will cheer him on for you.

          1. Can’t help chiming in here. I do my level best to ignore the market in 2yo races, particularly maidens. The tissues seem to be more about what they cost and who trains them and stable whispers, this is inevitable with unraced ones.
            There was a fine example of it in the 6 runner 2yo maiden at Ascot yesterday. After looking at them in the paddock it seemed to me that the two who on looks were likeliest to be the least competitive were Lethal Guest and Power Link. I couldn’t separate the two short priced ones at 6/4 and 9/4 but the two longest priced ones were 10/1 and 20/1. The prices offered up a trifecta opportunity and I got lucky as Almania 6/4 for Stoute underperformed and the two outsiders finished 2nd and 3rd. Trifecta paid £173 although of course there were 24 lines.
            Now this bet could only have been made if you were there and could use the visual info because the prices particularly 9/2 about Power Link must have been all about the fact that he cost £180k rather than the animal or his trainer’s record with first time out runners. Similarly Mick Channon’s Lethal Guest although coming from a trainer who does get fto wins was not good enough on the eye.
            It illustrates what a lottery maidens can be as the bookmaker’s tissues are necessarily formed from the info they have to hand. The one bit of market info I may use is a last minute shortening on certain trainers runners.

          2. Do you think that there is much stable money about in 2YO races these days? Particularly the smaller stables who may have a flyer at home? Can they keep this type of info to themselves these days?

            I agree re the bigger stables 2YO’s going off shorter because of where they are trained as well as their breeding. Although that is the case all over now. You see it very clearly in national hunt racing.

          3. Hi Martin, I think that odd though it sounds, very often in maidens the really small stables aren’t sure what they’ve got. I backed Tip Two Win at 33’s on debut at Windsor last year.
            I think either a stable is not a gambling stable or they are intimidated by the potential of some big stables runner and haven’t got a decent 2yo to compare it with.
            On the other hand there is no doubt in my mind that the Millmans knew what they’d go with Greeley when he was backed from 28’s to 14’s when he won his first nursery even though most of the top 2yo stables were represented.
            A couple of years ago I had a conversation with Clive Washbourne in the pre-parade at Lingfield. I said to him that I really liked his big filly trained by William Jarvis. He said that he thought 25/1 was too big but he was worried about a couple from big stables. I said I thought she was by far the nicest and she duly won at 25/1.
            In short I don’t really know; there are daft small stables who shorten theirs up when they have no chance, R Eddery springs to mind and others like Roger Teal who if the stable were on big time hid it well.

  2. ITV Racing.
    any over 6-1 ew
    Ascot
    1-50. Royal Intervention 2-1
    2-25. Sam Gold 10-1, Protected Guest 33-1, paying 5 places
    3-00. Flaming Spear 9-1, Cardsharp 16-1, paying 6 places
    3-40. Crystal Ocean 5-2, Hydrangea 14-1(half stake)
    York
    2-05. Alfred Hutchinson 20-1
    2-40. Flying Pursuit 9-1, Tommy Taylor 11-1, paying 6 places
    3-15. Fabricate 8-1, Euro Nightmare 40-1

  3. Yesterday profit of 4.8125 @bog (inc r4’s) 0.7 @ sp
    Quite a few today

    A 2.25 – Petrus @ 25 poss e/w
    3.40 – Hydrangea @ 14
    C 4.20 – Dragons Tail @ 5
    4.55 – Danzay @ 8
    Nm 3.25 – Tirania @ 5
    4.00 – Excellent Times @ 5
    5.40 – Keep up Kevin @ 13/2
    Y 3.15 – Forest Ranger @ 5
    5.00 – Exhort @ 9
    Nc 2.10 – Tarte Tropezienne @ 15/2
    3.55 – Lucky Lucky Man @ 2
    L 5.30 – Ferrier @ 15/8
    6.00 – Surrey Blaze @ 3
    7.30 – Gainsay @ 3
    S 6.45 – Three Little Birds @ 8
    8.15 – Cheeky Rascal @ 5

  4. Saturday 28th July Newmarket and York
    Thanks for the kind comments yesterday.
    A great result yesterday with Greeley, although still displaying an odd head carriage and looking a bit difficult to convince getting up late on and in the end winning comfortably. It was probably an even better performance than the bare result suggests. The ground had gone from g/f that he won on before to soft, he raced wide with little cover for most of the race. In addition to this his head carriage is odd, he does not really nod, holding his head very stiffly. I am beginning to think that maybe it is just a physical characteristic and not thinking. That said it may limit him as a good nodding action aids efficient breathing. He looks to have filled out well and his strength to get up and win going away suggests we may be able to go to this well once more.
    My initial rating for him was 70, he raced off an OR of 66 today. Hopefully he will only get put up 6lbs to 74. I would think this performance and his increased strength should mean that he has developed to around 76 on my ratings and he may still be well in nto.
    Ascot 1.50pm 6f Group 3 Princess Margaret
    Ratings
    1. Angel’s Hideaway, Chapelli
    2. Scintillating, Nicki’s Angel, Royal Intervention, The Mackem Bullet
    Ratings Bet 1pt Win Scintillating
    I was very impressed by Scintillating at Newbury, admittedly there was not much else in the race. The big danger here is Royal Intervention who was beaten by Octave on debut then won easily from Strings Of Life 2to. I haven’t seen her but I have seen Octave and Strings Of Life and the collateral is, I think, no stronger than Scintillating’s.
    Scintillating – Looked a class above the rest, size, strength and depth. probably group class. 90
    Angel’s Hideaway – Heavy bodied lower medium strong filly. 87
    Chapelli – Typically for a Mark Johnston horse, a bigger model but tall and not that heavily made. Stuck on well from worst draw. Got her black type. 81
    Newmarket 2.15pm 7f Novice
    Ratings
    1. Alkaamel, Ours Puissant,
    2. Fox Fearless, Golden Valour, Machell Place, Shining Torch, Topical
    3. War Eagle
    Way too confusing with double entries from Gosden and Hannon with odd jockey bookings and Japanese top jock on the Godolphin favourite Golden Valour. Below are the comments on the ones I have seen. The logical bet is Machell Place but I just have a niggle about him.
    Machell Place – Another unready one needing run. Good looking boy 80
    Topical – Lesser model than the first two lower to mid medium at best. 95% fit. Win a maiden. 75
    Hugh

  5. 4.50 ASCOT CLIFFS OF CAPRI 14/1 2.50 PTS E/W = TRAINER IN FORM / FIRST TIME CHEEK PIECES ( NOT SURE OF RECORD BUT EXTRAORDINARY WHEN THIS TRAINER USING 1ST TIME HEADGEAR !
    GL 2 ALL

    BC

      1. THANKS ALLAN …… GLAD TO ASSIST 🙂 HOPE A FEW OTHERS PLUNDERED AS WELL 🙂 .. I DIDNT ACTUALLY SEE THE RACE .. DID HE DO IT FROM THE FRONT AS I EXPECTED ?? 🙂

        GL

        1. Sorry never saw it either. Race result says ‘ in touch, took it up over a furlong out and stayed on well’

    1. Thanks for the Analysis – Spot on . With the other advice from Josh, SP2A, and the other advisers made a good profit and pulled back some of the recent losses. THANKS TO EVERYONE

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.