Members Daily Post: 25/07/18 (complete)

Section 1 (comp), test zone , a look ahead…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Lingfield

4.50 – Firenze Rosa (micro class) G3 10/1 

 

Bath

4.00 – 

Amberine (3yo+ 5 yrs, 3yo+, m dist) w1 14 ES+ G3 S3A 5/2 UP

Hastenplace (m age)  20/1 UP

 

Catterick

4.10 – 

Longroom (m dist) w2  8/1 UP

Excessible (m class) G3 9/2 2nd 

4.40 – Cupids Arrow (m TJC/dist) H1 11/4 

5.10 – 

Danish Duke (m TJC/dist/age) I1 G3  9/1 S2  S6

Indian Pursuit (m TJC/dist/class) 9/2 

5.45 – Wotabreeze (m class) H3 I3 7/2 

 

Leicester

8.10 – Clenymistra (m age) 14,30 H3 I3  10/3 

 

Sandown

8.00 – The Last Emperor (m going) 14,30  11/4 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 16/178,62p, -6.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +140)

 

Daily Tips

NONE.

4.40 Catt – Cuppacoco – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) NR

that will be all for tips (well, it was, another wasted few minutes, was going to make all and bolt up as well! :))

I was going to write that this one was back into a C6, running for the first time since the trainer had hit hot form, CP on, and there was every chance she would get an easy time on the front end. She had been darting out to the left/hanging left in her races (she’d have won at Thirsk two starts back if staying straight,having watched that back) but she’d be able to get the rail here and race up against it all the way home, if breaking smartly/getting the lead. Top rated GG speed, in a weak enough race on paper, she only every really runs well when dominating. She’d shown ability winning twice at Newcastle as a 2 year old and this all aged handicap looked hers for the taking, with a masterful front running ride from Fanning. Alas, we will never know!

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re-cap…ah, another 2nd yesterday and I don’t know what to think of the horse/ride…it had a sense of inevitability about it in the last furlong. I fear he may have done too much in the early part, getting in a scrap with another horse and somewhat setting it up for a closer, but that’s racing. He was in the right spot to kick and put the race to bed if good enough, but he either wasn’t, or had used up too much energy, going up and down on the spot a bit. I’m not sure he looked the most straightforward on that evidence either. One to track, if maybe not to trust. 

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Recent Tips

(2018, 07/06/18- ; 16/107, +13)

5.10 Catt – Guardia Svizzera

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

5.10 Catt – Guardia Svizerra 4/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Three musings from Monday’s racing you may or may not find of interest…

Knight Errant...5.40 Windsor..if you haven’t watched the race, do take a look. I think it’s one of the most extraordinary wins i’ve seen on the flat… the horse was nearly brought down,stumbled, nearly unseated rider, then got caught between horses, bumped, barged, squeezed through a gap and somehow still won. Guts and determination from the jockey and more so the horse. A good job my tip was a NR really…if this one had held his position he’d have won this by 1 or 2L + you’d have thought. Worth noting down as he could be smart, certainly ahead of whatever mark he gets I suspect albeit may not be much of a price NTO anyway. Still, worth a watch. Incredible from a young horse.

Optimum Time… a decent 14/1 winner for S6 in the 8.40 Windsor… he hit 25s through the day and I know at least one of you got 32.00 on the machine. Nice. I was nowhere near tipping him, but that’s part of the reason for the strategies, to remove subjective thought. But, always something to learn, as I would have liked to have put him up/had more on!… 1st time blinkers was the key… as was a move into an all age handicap for the first time (albeit one with a few 3YO in) and also Eddie Greatrex jumped on for the first time…of interest due to his track record.. now 9/39,16, +33 in Windsor handicaps, 5/14,9p over 8f. It was the massive distance move and possible change to make all tactics that should have got me thinking also… he was dropping from 12f to 8f here..if you’re going to apply 1st time blinkers, it makes no sense to hold them up in my view. Given that trip move it wasn’t hard to fathom they may try and burn them off from the front, and that’s what he did. A brilliant ride. Oh, and the horse was returning to Windsor for the first time since his debut win here over 6f on his first career start. The stars always align post race but plenty there for me to hammer home into my racing brain.

Three Saints Bay 9/1>5/1…8pm Bev… he was bolting up for S3A# and really should have been higher up in my tipping thoughts…in the morning when looking at him I did ponder whether they may make all..only because they appeared to be holding him up to teach him to settle/to get 7f… he was very keen two starts back/had been fresh enough this season but appeared to have now learnt to drop his head. Given that, they were probably more confident he would stay now. He had an 8lb swing with the horse that beat him that day, and I took no account of that in the morning. Slap on wrist. It was his first run in an all age handicap and Danny T was jumping back on for the first time in 3 runs. O’Meara was also now banging them in, this one and many others may also have just taken time to come to and and as touched on there was no out and out pace on paper pre race. He got it all together over this trip, made all,and somewhat bolted up. Annoying given he was 9s and I wasn’t close enough to tipping, but again bits and pieces to take away from him. Not so bad if you have the odd dabble on S3A# qualifiers though.

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Next Week…Goodwood + Galway.... I’m starting to home in on the races I may look at through the week, with trends etc. It will be quite the test but Ascot week and The July Meeting I think demonstrated that I should keep trying at these Festival races. (10/1 + 50/1 winners, 18/1 nose 2nd, close to two winners, a few losers also) I’ve no issue with the jumps results long term but I suppose diving into Flat festival handicaps is a bit new still, but I like a challenge. The week is looking like this… Goodwood unless stated…

Tuesday

1m2f Handicap, C2

5f Handicap C2

1m6f Handicap C2

Wednesday 

Galway Plate Handicap Chase

Thursday 

1m2f handicap , 3YO, C2

Galway Hurdle

5f Handicap C3 (the C3s may get chopped as plenty going on already)

Friday

1m3f handicap, C3, (again may get chopped)…i’m at a Wedding on the Friday and I may be best spending Thursday looking at what’s to come on Saturday…

Saturday 

7f handicap C2

1m4f handicap C2

Stewards Sprint Stakes handicap C2

Stewards Cup handicap C2

Galway…2m7f handicap hurdle Grade B

(i’ll want to look at both the sprint handicaps as the main focus, the rest may stretch me albeit if the longer distance tips have done well up to this point, i’ll have to look) 

Sunday 

Day of rest. 🙂

There will also be the trainer/jockey/owner pointers and I will do some ‘through the card’ starting points for each day of Goodwood, that’s the intention anyway. I’d best stock up on coffee. I’m conscious not to do too much as it can be a case of quality over quantity/too much information. Some of those will be shared on the free post, prob with a ‘race in focus’ each day on there, TBC.

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This Saturday...we have a 7f Heritage Handicap from Ascot I won’t be able to resist, if a decent field size, and the SkyBet Dash from York. I will dig out some stats/trends for those, and hopefully some shortlists of use.

All in addition to the usual content etc.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

21 Responses

  1. I’m just on the trail at the minute and absolutely loving the set up here. Great work mate. Keep it going. I hope you here for the very long term.

  2. Donny Belle Bath Wednesday 16:00 1.5pt win-Price available 7/1 I want to give this one one more chance as I felt she was a little unlucky LTO behind a wall of horses. Before that she has ran well in a number of hot races. Has a solid draw and gets a massive jockey upgrade with Kingscote in the saddle who is 2/6, 4p for the trainer including 2/4, 3p on 3yr olds. Gets a 3 yr old allowance against all bar one of the field. I think the extra half a furlong will suit.

  3. Not long back from a great day out at Musselburgh. Sod’s Law, the two who don’t follow racing had 4 winners between them, Mike one winner and yours truly zilch!! However, pooled bets meant that it paid for the meal after haha 🙂

    On a brighter note, my AW tips made a profit of 2.5pts and the Flat Jockey Profits made a profit of 12.60pts if you went for the filtered list or 14.55pts if you used the full list, after Rule 4.

    Thanks for all the qualifiers and tips Josh (and Colin). I think they came in useful!

    1. You didn’t even back the S6 qualifier/’through the card’ tip, tut tut haha. Sounds like you had a great day out nonetheless.

      1. I did have half my usual stake the night before but went off piste at the course. Still a great day out.

  4. There are three AW races at Lingfield tomorrow. Qualifiers below:
    1.50 Live Dangerously 9/1
    2.20 Joyful Dream 9/1
    2.50 Sky Marshall 9/1
    1pt win each

    There is also one qualifier for the Flat Jockey Profits, also at Lingfield:

    Adam Kirby
    2.20 American Patrol 3/1 (Qualifies for the filtered list)

    Good Luck

  5. Good day yesterday with 2 good wins at 15/2 and 7/1.

    Chris M Selections:
    Lingfield
    16:20 – Silkstone (14/1) * crashed to 12/1 or lower as I wrote this

    Just the one from me today, good luck with your betting!

  6. Tips – 4.00 Bath, Archimedes, 2 points at 7/1. In good form and suited by an extra half furlong they go today.

    Good luck

  7. Dandy Highwayman who finished last on Friday is quickly brought out in the claimer at Catterick today….chance in this grade if recovering from whatever happened Friday.

    1pt each-way DANISH DUKE, 510 Catterick, 8-1 generally

    This is a 6f class 6 0-60 and Danish Duke comes in with dreadful form. He runs off a mark of 55 and has won off marks of between 58 and 69. In this class, on turf he is 2 wins 5 places from 7 starts and at Catterick, he is 2 wins, 3 places from 4 starts. His last run here was in August 2016 when he won over course and distance off a mark of 68. He may well blow out but I expect there to be 3 or 4 disputing the lead and I’m hoping Sullivan can bring him over the top in the last furlong. My last selection was a long last mind!

    1. I hope you’re right Paul, be nice for S6 to nab another one. i starred at him for an age pondering whether to tip him and I hope I have him wrong, but I just couldn’t work out why he was going to suddenly bounce back, unless Ruth has tinkered with something at home in his routine, and he arrives a happy/in form horse! Can see the case based on his mark etc but he does just look regressive but will find a race at some point, and that could be at this track. He is best with cut but did win on GF, but that appears a bit of an anomaly but we shall see. My system stake is down, so best of luck! I wouldn’t be shocked if just bounced back from nowhere.

        1. yep, was a step forward of sorts on some recent efforts, prob hack up in autumn when GS somewhere. Rather annoyed Indian P wasn’t 8s this morning, happy to leave at morning odds of 9/2, but no shock he’s made all at his fav track/class in 1st time visor, that price would have allowed the risk I think, in this race, but not 9/2. damn.

  8. Handicap winners bets:-
    400 Amberine
    410 Bosham
    530 Champagne Bob
    740 Ghayadh
    810 Iconic Belle
    840 Christmas Night

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