Members Daily Post: 23/07/18 (complete)

UPDATE to 2pm Ayr! TIPS x3, Section 1 (comp) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ayr 

2.00- (late update, 09.46,appear to have missed the 2pm!!) 

Vallarta (micro dist/class) w1 H1 10/3 UP

Racquet (m dist/class) G3 14/1 UP

Star Cracker (m TJC) H3 I1 8/1 S2 S6  UP

3.05 – Irvine Lady (micro TJC) 30 40/1  UP

3.35 – Cheeni (m TJC)  12/1 UP 25/1

4.10 –

Wasm (m class) 33/1 UP

Crazy Tornado (m runs) I1 14/1 S6 UP

4.40 

Gworn (m TJC) 11/1 UP

Universal Gleam (m dist) (hncp debut) w2 3/1 UP

 

Windsor

UPDATE: Inform added, as of 08.45,missed first time, 2x S6s now…

5.40 – 

Abel Tasman (all hncps 5yrs, all) 30 ES+H3 I1 7/1 S2 S3A S6

The Jean Genie (m TJC) H3 7/2 UP

7.10- Madame Bounty (all hncps 5 yrs, all)30 G1 I3 11/4 S2 2nd 

7.40 – Last Enchantment (m age) H3 I1 13/2 S2 S6 UP

8.40 – 

Glorious Army (all hncps 5 yrs, all) ES+ 10/1 S3A 2nd 

Optimum Time (m age) G1 14/1 S6  WON 14/1>14/1 (hit 25s through day) 

 

Beverley

7.00 – Musharrif (m class/age) I3 7/2 2nd 

8.00 – 

Theodorico (all hncps) I3 8/1 UP

Three Saints Bay (m TJC/dist/age) 14 ES+ H3 G3 9/1 S3A# S5 WON 9/1>5/1 

8.30 – 

Stringybark Creek (all hncps)  11/1 WON 11/1>5/1 

Vigee Le Brun (m TJC/dist/class/age) 14 ES+I3 G1 6/1 S2 S3A# S6

9.00 – Outlaw Torn (all hncps + m class) I3 20/1 

 

JUMPS

Cartmel

2.45 – 

Court King (all hncps + m age) 14,30 I1 4/1  2nd 

Chocolat Noir (m class/runs) 9/1 UP

3.20 – Handy Hollow (m dist) H3 I1 5/1 UP

4.25 – Wisty (m runs) H3 I3 11/4 UP

4.55 – Earthmoves (all hncps + m age) 14, 30 I3  4/1 UP

 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 16/177,61p, -5.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +140)

 

Daily Tips

3.35 Ayr – Cheeni – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP 25/1…well the market was some indication there as it turned out, she looked a bit too lit up in the headgear early on, and has never done anything of not in the race. Maybe it was too hot as the pace held, and in any case she’s flattened out tamely- maybe a combo of headgear/trip, sadly not working the oracle as hoped. Poor

5.40 Wind – Abel Talisman – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen)  NR

8.30 Bev – Vigee Le Brun – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen)  NR

That’s all for tips, prices correct as of 09.30,

 

UPDATE: It would appear my brain wasn’t functioning at 7am this morning… I missed 3 horses in the 2pm Ayr above, and the inform speed ratings for Windsor on first run through- all updated now, with the odd strategy qualifier of note.

 

Cheeni – I’ve been lured in at 14/1 here in what feels an open enough race although a handful of class droppers that have been running ok and one 3YO lurking at the bottom. Jim Goldie’s have been going ok in recent days and I liked the fact that PJ jumps back on given he is 1/4,3p on her in handicaps and he is riding well at the moment, 9/44,14p the last 14 days. She only appears to run her best here, in part because this is where she does most of her running, but she is 1/8,4p over 6f. I was intrigued that they try 7f here for the first time as she’s always come with a late rattle and has run plenty of races to suggest she could be worth a crack at this trip – it could see her return to the winning enclosure. Of course she may not stay, hence why I wanted a price, and 14s was big enough for me. They also try first time blinkers which may make a difference- again that could be positive or negative but it’s doing something different and at this basement level that’s important I think. She was in form two starts back, beaten by a horse that had been running well, with a big gap back to the rest. The two horse behind her that day have since come out and won so there was some substance to the form, the three around here rated 60, 62, 64. We have to excuse that last run but having watched it back she never looked happy at all, with a slightly awkward head carriage and she didn’t seem to want to go through with her effort. Given she has never won when the ground is rattling fast, I wonder if it was just too quick that day. Her best form has been on ‘good’ which she gets here and the odd shower may take any further sting out of it also. All in all I thought there was enough to go on at the price for a poke, in a race where everything seems to have a question or three.

Abel Talisman... 8/1 seemed a big price to my eyes here for this one who is 1/6,2p in turf handicaps and there could be more to come. This one drops back down to 10f having run over 12 LTO which I don’t think he stayed. That was also a C3 and he is back into a C5 here, quite a drop. Two starts back he ran a decent second in a class 4,beaten by one who has since followed up off 88. The race before that he obliterated his field in a C5 again at Haydock, winning with plenty in hand to my eye. The 3rd, 5th and 7th have since come out and won, 4 wins between them, so again some substance there. Walker remains in form and you can just back his handicappers blind here, 7/21,10p in the last year with his handicappers here. 20/89,43p all runners in the last 5 years.  Trainer and jockey are 7/24,12p in the last 30 days, 3/9,4p the last 14, they are going well. This one can race prominently and dropped in trip/class I hope they track the Cox horse and keep tabs on him. He gets first time CP here to hopefully bring about further improvement/greater focus at the business end-  Walker is 4/13,6p when applying those for the first time in C5/6 races. All in all I thought there was plenty to like at his price and if he could get back to the form of that Haydock win three starts back, back into a C5, he should be bang there to my eye. Knight Errant may be the danger, and I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver on him.

Vigee Le Brun... this one was an acceptable 6/1 when I started deliberations but a 20p R4 reduced that somewhat and as such I still think 9/2 is ok. Maybe this one is a tad risky at the price given she still hasn’t won a race but having watch a couple of races I think she tries. A few things lured me in…O’Meara races her over 7f for the first time and from this draw I expect Tudhope to blast out and try and make all. In any case he should be in the front two I think, bagging the rail. Her mark is falling, Tudhope jumps back on and the yard are starting to find some consistency – 17/70,36p in the last 14 days (70 runners in two weeks!), +28. I’m not sure she stays 8f+, certainly not 10f, but if she could repeat that 3rd here 4 starts back, in a C5, off 64, i’d like to think she would be bang there at the finish. There really is no excuse today to my eye. Well, unless there is a thunderstorm or something- a small chance of showers apparently but it’s rattling fast at the moment and hopefully they don’t materialise. Having wanted rain at Hamilton and not getting hardly any on Friday,no doubt it will pour down! Rebel State is a danger but is a hold up horse and will need plenty of luck- he won’t be far away if he gets it. Justice Pleasing can push the pace but again i’m not sure why he should suddenly win a race like this, his placed efforts racking up- maybe that consistency will see him thereabouts. Hopefully Tudhope can dictate or at least hit the front a few out, and put this race to bed. At what was 6/1 (now 9/2 after R4), there was enough there to go on for me.

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Recent Tips

3.20 Cart – Handy Hollow (first run) UP

5.25 Cart – Stags Leap (first run) WON 12/1>7/1 

7.00 Bev – Musharrif (3rd)

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

Top of the Class

6.30 Bev – Lady Rouda (any odds)

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.55 Cart – Jovial Joey UP

D McCain (14/1< guide)

4.25 Cart – Raise A Spark w1 WON 11/8 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

UPDATE: It would appear my brain wasn’t functioning at 7am this morning… I missed 3 horses in the 2pm Ayr above in Section 1, and the inform speed ratings for Windsor on first run through- all updated now, with the odd strategy qualifier of note.

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The week ahead… i’m yet to glance at what big races may wet the appetite through the week/come the weekend, but i’ll be spending plenty of time getting my prep out the way for Goodwood and Galway, working out which races to attack with stats/trends, noting the trainer records for each race, those with 2+ winners, as i’ll do a ‘through the card’ info template for each day at Goodwood. I’m thinking of attacking the whole week with w 20-25 point bank, and seeing how that goes. I’ll probably just focus on any classy handicap hurdles from Galway, and maybe any decent 3m+ handicap chases, if the trends are strong enough.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. Josh
    Ken and I are going to Musselburgh on Tuesday would appreciate your guidance to help fill our wheelbarrow, Lol.

    Mike

  2. Flat Jockey Profits

    Ryan Moore S2 wiped it’s feet with 1pt profit from four races to BOG.

    I’ve found a marginally better filter for Daniel Tudhope which is:
    5/2 to 20/1 (3/1 to 14/1) remembering this is a fairly small sample.

    There is one qualifier for Monday:
    Daniel Tudhope
    7.30 Beverley – Geetanjali 9/4 which doesn’t meet the filtered criteria.

    It looks like there will be a few for Tuesday.

    1. Evening Ken,
      I wasn’t sure of the price parameters for Tudhope so I’ve thrown some change at Geetanjali.
      Cheers
      Andy

  3. Rather than clutter the beginning of this post there is an update on figures for Josh’s tips at the end of comments in members post 22/7.
    Mike

  4. Hi Josh, A 2.00 to add ?

    Vallarta (micro dist, class) w1
    Racquet (micro dist, class)
    Star Cracker (micro TJC)
    Mike

    1. Cheers Mike, sometimes I do wonder what goes on in my head, not sure how i’ve completely shpt past that race haha, I won’t blame the early start/lack of coffee! Cheers, no doubt one of them, hopefully the S6, will now bolt up with any luck.
      Josh

  5. Tips – 2.45 Cartmel, Dreamsoftheatre, 3 points at 11/2 BOG. Tends to come good this time of the year and worth a go at this price.

    U.S. Tips – Saratoga race 8, Crea’s Brooklyn Law, UK time 10.02.

    Good luck.

    1. Hi Martin Dreamoftheatre is also on the NTF Summer Stunners list as is Wisty 4.25 Cartmel if anyone is following.

      I missed 3 picks yesterday one of which won at shortish odds and another placed.

      1. Ground is always tricky when it rains as sometimes it has an impact and other times not. Shocker of an effort by the horse, drifted in the market as well.

      2. Ben Aitken suggests in his notes that the horse needs good or better (7/8) rather than good to soft or worse (1/17). He won at Cartmel on 1st July on good to firm (good in places) today was good (good to firm in places) so not much difference there. I suspect it is more a case of Jonjo’s not often winning two on the trot!

        1. He is just a tricky bugger sadly, hard to catch right and I doubt connections know when he may spark. Has PU 7 times in career, and always followed up a win with a shocker to date. He received a wonderful ride LTO- has to be kept interested but at same time I think you have to make him think that he isn’t in a race! Last time it all fell apart somewhat and he just swept around and galloped past a more moderate bunch than today’s small field I think. That’s him sadly, a frustrating one.

  6. Chris M Selections:
    Ayr
    14:00 – Vallarta (7/2 gen)
    14:30 – Fool For You

    Last week looks like my lull in form going away, results to follow!

    1. Apologies I hit enter on the last post before it was finished, an edit button would be great. Rest of post below:
      Chris M Selections:
      Ayr
      14:00 – Vallarta (7/2 gen)
      14:30 – Fool For You (4/1 gen)

      Ballinrobe
      20:20 – Greenpanda (11/2 gen)

      Results update will be updated below

    2. Re-Cap w/c 16/7/18:
      28 bets – 6 winners
      S/R: 21.43 %
      ROI: 89.29%
      P/L: +25 pts

      Overall:
      186 bets – 39 winnners and 4 N/R
      S/R: 21.43 %
      ROI: +6.97 %
      P/L: +12.68 pts

      Well that makes much better reading than the past few weeks, some nice winners at 20/1 and 14/1 SP were the highlights last week. This feels like the turn around I was needing to get out of the rut I was in since I started posting, onwards and upwards. June ended negative but it looks like July will wipe that out and add some for us!

  7. COLINS BETS
    Sorry so late but a fantastic night of music last night,down town after till 5.00
    AYR
    2.00 Star Cracker
    2.00 Brendan
    2.30 Jabarocki
    3.05 Jessie Allan
    4.10 Lotara
    Windsor
    5.40 Blaze Of Hearts
    Beverley
    8.30 Rebel State
    9.00 Bollin Joan

    Bookmakers
    SP + 20.359

    BOG + 45.875

  8. Handicap winners bets:-
    320 Celtic Monarch
    410 Coviglia
    455 Alderbrook Lad
    510 Akamanto
    640 Hackney Road
    700 Desert Ace
    710 Open Wide
    730 Bit of a Quirke
    830 Abushamah

  9. Beverley 7pm Pomme de Terre 10/1

    Picked this before i had seen the price crash. Its just a line with Desert ace where theres a 22lb swing (if you include jockey allowances). Thats from an Ayr Race back in August.
    Sire check, Trainer Check, Jockey Check.
    Horse well its not won at 5f but its last run gives me hope it can win at the distance.
    Just need some lady luck.

    1. Sorry should of added. %pt win. Im confident. Not in my form but that line of form.
      Moving on 9pm John Caesar 7/1 1pt win
      ticks all the boxes.
      CD winner who ran too far last time and ran too short the race before it won here. Obvious init. Like the Jockey.
      Just need some lady luck. Go on please

  10. 9pm Outlaw Torn wont win but should lead and trade a lot lower than its starting price for those who like that option. I meant 5pt win on Pomme.

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