Members Daily Post: 21/07/18 (complete)

Daily Tips x3, Fest Tips x2, Section 1 (comp) , test zone , MR summer hurdle shortlist, Cartmel Through the card..

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Newbury

4.45 – 

Madeleine Bond (micro age) 20/1 

Flying North (m runs) w2 w1 H3 15/2 

5.20 – 

Mankib (all hncps 5 yrs, all, 3yo+) (hncp debut) 14 ES+ 13/2 S3A 

Medahim (m runs) H3 I1 G1 11/4 S1 S2 S4 

 

Newmarket (July) 

3.25 – Syrian Pearl (all hncps/3yo+) I3 12/1  UP

4.00 – Masham Star (m dist move) H3 I3 G3 8/1 S4 S5  UP

 

Ripon

3.30 – Mikmak (m TJC) H1 2/1  UP

4.05 – 

Aasheq (m TJC + dist) w2 H1 I3 7/2 S2

Mukhayyam (m dist) w2 I3 G3 11/1 UP

Appointed (m dist/dist move) 10/1  2nd 

4.40 – 

Storm Ahead (m TJC) I1 7/2 UP

Mutarakez (m class) I3 16/1 UP

5.15 – 

Multellie (m TJC/Dist)  11/2 2nd 

Be Perfect (m class) I3 11/1 UP

 

 

Lingfield

7.15 – Porto Ferro (m class move) w1 H3 15/2 

 

Haydock

8.30- Dundunah (m age) I3 G3 13/2 

 

JUMPS

Market Rasen 

2.05 – 

Court Minstrel (all hncps) 30  I1  18/1 S2A S5 UP

Fair Mountain (micro hncp h debut) (hncp debut) w2 w1 14,30 H3 4/1 2nd 

2.40 – Red Hot Chilly (m class) w1 H1 11/4 UP

3.15 – More Bucks (m age) w1 14,30 I3  9/1 WON 9/1>6/1 

3.50 –

Card Game (all hncps) w1 H3 I3  11/2 UP

Voodoo Doll (all hncps) w2 w1 30 H1 4/1 UP

4.25 – Royal Village (nov hncps) 14 I3 6/1 WON/Dead heat 6/1>3/1 

 

Cartmel 

2.30 – 

Wells De Lune (all hncps + m age) 14,30 w1 H1 I1 11/4  WON 11/4 

Lough Kent (m TJC) H3 33/1  UP

3.05 – 

William of Orange (m dist) w2  I3 12/1 S2 S5  WON 12/1>14/1 

Volcanic (m dist) w1 H3 5/2  Fell

4.50 – Chantara Rose (all hncps) 14,30 15/2 UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 15th July)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 15/173,60p, -8.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +140)

Daily Tips

4.00 Newmarket – Masham Star – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen) UP, poor.

4.50 Cartmel – Chantara Rose – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen) Up- odd ride, Johnson went wide and must have covered about 4 miles! That told in the last furlong. No idea why held up so far back/wide given how she travelled but may have been good reason, she is a character I think.

5.20 Newb – Mankib – 1 point win – 6/1 (WH/BV) 11/2 (gen) WON 6/1>9/2 

 

 

Festival Tips

2.05 Market Rasen 

Mister Universum – 1 point win – 9/1 (betfS/PP/188) 8/1 (gen) UP

Court Minstrel – 1 point win – 20/1 (WH/UniBet/888) 18/1 (gen) UP

*

Write ups… 

Masham Star… tipped LTO in the Bunbury, it would be heartbreak were he to rock up here and win at this price. He raced on the wrong part of the track that day which was sadly only evident to me post race- i’m not sure the far rail was the place to be but in any case he was away from the action. I took a poke at his price there with the drop to 7f but he wasn’t quick enough to get to the front there and probably went harder than ideal through most of that. He steps back up to his favoured 8f here, and in a weaker/less competitive race. Franny Norton takes over and he’s riding at the top of his game and rides this track well enough. I think the Geegeez race card stats do not separate between both Newmarket tracks (well, I don’t think they used to, but maybe that’s been sorted now) in any case, Franny is 6/26,11p here in the last year (or in Newmarket!) and trainer/jockey 3/13,6p at the ‘track’ in last year. Again the PACE was a consideration… he is a better horse than stable mate Poet’s Society and has the more experienced rider on – surely they will instruct Oliver Stammers to hold fire and sit off Masham, and not kill them both on the front end. Maybe the latter will just track him and take over a couple out. In any case, Johnston should hold the key to the pace of this race and MS should be in the right spot. He is only 4 but has had a lot of racing, however his mark his fine against some former exploits, no excuses there. Maybe the race will come too quick but there was enough there at 15/2 for me. They’d be idiots to set it up for Ripp Orf or Vintager but having said that I know what happens now! And it would appear i’ve cursed Nick below also, but with any luck it’s a positive when we land on the same horse independently.

Chantara Rose… yet to win a chase but she hasn’t had many starts for the red hot Peter Bowen, she’s a former C4 winner over hurdles, her mark is plummeting and she drops in to a class 5 for the first time. With his sons engaged at Market Rasen, he’s gone for Johnson here. I’m sure they mean business. I also found it intriguing that they remove the cheekpieces for the first time in an age – at this level, with these older horses, that can make a difference. She runs as if he does want 3m and i’m not sure she likes going RH. There are some valid excuses for recent runs I think but she ran well on yard debut at Fontwell in a C4, plugging on. Pulled up 11 days later when something went amiss, and out 16 days after that, it may have come too quickly. In that context the 46 day break could be a positive here and Bowen may have worked his magic/found the key at home. Maybe she’s been for a splash in the sea. I wouldn’t be shocked if she hacked up here, or indeed if it was a poor run! You pays your money. It looks a weak enough race albeit if the headgear works for Damien’s again, he’s the one they have tp catch. And Vaughan’s looks of some interest also. If Chantara doesn’t win you’d think one of the LTO chase winners would, but strange things can happen at Cartmel. Chantara was doing enough different for me, while still unexposed over fences, from a good mark. Bowen will win a chase with her one day.

Mankib… I thought 6s was just about ok in this race, given it could be a tactical affair. Reading Jim Crowley’s column on coral (which I did post tip having seen a tweet) wouldn’t fill you with confidence as he thinks it’s a fact finding mission. But, this one is having his second start after a break/for the yard and drops down from a G3 into a handicap. He had some decent form on good in France from a few starts and also made all/raced up there on a couple of those. I hope Jim is more aggressive here and tracks Buick. The fact he takes over is significant I think and he was unfancied at 33s LTO. Haggas is in red hot form and in general has a decent record with handicap debutants. I didn’t think the way this race would be run over 7f would suit Medahim, who in that context looked short enough. Maybe they’ll be aggressive with him also and he hits a few strategies. 11/4 felt about right. Top Score from SBS is a danger but the selection is open to more progress I think. It could be he’s out of form but if he came here on the back of a running on 2nd/3rd LTO, he would probably be half this price. I expect to see more today.

*

2.05 Market Rasen

Looking at this race, through every runner, I came to the conclusion that it may not actually be that good a race, and that shaped my thinking with the selections…

Mister Universum…if Harry was on he’d be half the price and maybe that tells it’s own story. However, this is the only horse to tick every single one of my trends/stats pointers and at 8s I felt obliged to have a go.  He’s trained by Skelton who is red hot and targets this day (safe to say after last year I think!) and the horse horse is an unexposed handicapper who won a C2 LTO in impressive enough fashion. He must have been put away for this and I thought he looked solid. He has proven class really for this race when not many can say that, and yet he is still open to improvement. Harry made the wrong decision in a Festival handicap this year, from a choice of two, and hopefully he’s done the same and Bridget can ride this one to victory. Skelton’s stats for horses returning 60+ days at the track are something else. (59 days is close enough!) Given he ticked all my stats pointers, were he to win at his price you’d hear the anguish from wherever you are today.

Court Minstrel…well… 16s-20s was worth a poke here given the view I came to about the race. He would bust all the trends/stats but he is the classiest horse in here by some way. Just 6 starts ago he was beating Sam Spinner at Chepstow in a very hot early winter season handicap hurdle. IF he repeated that form today, he would win this by a few lengths. It could be he is totally out of sorts – that run LTO was odd, he was never put into it at all, but came home in his own time. They didn’t pull him up which intrigued me and you do wonder if the canny Williams has plotted him for this-  it could have been a target for most of the year, running him on soft twice since Xmas just to get the mark down. He will have a pace to aim at and he has gone close in a small field C2 over 16f at Stratford back in the day. His legs may be slower now. We will get one of two runs here- he will either be held up and that’s where he stays, because he is out of sorts, or our hearts will be racing approaching the last. At 20s i’ll pay to find out. Maybe Williams can nab back to back victories in the race.

Of the rest…well the race is packed full of young, unexposed, in form horses, and so I could have read this completely wrong. But, they have all been winning C4/5 races and this should be some step up. Skelton’s Fair Mountain could be anything, but his price was short enough for one that now has to go and prove it, but he is the choice of Harry. Artful Artist is unexposed and the likes of Ocean Drive who are interesting, but this will be a new experience and they all have to improve. I can live with something else beating me in here, i suppose the one I looked at longest at a price was Ocean Jive but he fell down on a couple of pointers.. i’m hoping the 0/44,3p stats for horses returning 16-25 days is maintained- maybe it’s an illogical one but there could be something in it, although a small enough stats pool. We shall see!

Right, that’s the lot…onto Cartmel for a quick through the card… 11.23…

 

Recent Tips

5.15 Ripon – Armandihan (2nd run)

A few prev Festival tips running… Bacchus (3pm Newb), Hence (4.55 Cur) , Masham Star (4pm New)

Stratum was an eye catcher at Ascot, but his price gone/short enough in that new, valuable, very competitive 2m contest.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

3.30 Rip – Mulligatawny 9/2

Jumps

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.05 Cart – Volcanic 5/2  / William of Orange 12/1 W 14/1

*

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.40 Cart – Eric The Third 2/1

4.15 Cart – Bambi Du Noyer 9/4

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: Please read yesterday’s musings if you haven’t already, links in Key above also esp ‘The Strategies: where should you start’ Plenty of useful stuff in there, with the aim to create a systematic portfolio if you wish, that for small stakes as a min would pay for subs over the year/provide some fun, or of course to use what you please as ‘starting points’ etc.

*

 

Saturday Stats/Pointers

A look ahead to Market Rasen …some stats/trends etc for the hurdle and the chase, …READ HERE>>>

*

2.05 MR – Summer Handicap Hurdle

Looking at the stats in the link above, and focusing on those with 0-1 handicap hurdle wins, 0-1 runs at the track, and top 2 at least once on last 3 runs, leaves 6…

Shortlist:Fair Mountain / Artful Artist / Mister Universum / Cubswin / Je Suis Charlie / Ocean Jive

other pointers inc 5-14 hurdle runs, 2-5 career wins, age 5 or 6 ideal, 11-00+ have a decent record, did not run 16-25 days ago (could be a random stat but they are 0/44,3p, and Fair Mountain falls down on that). The only horse with positive ticks against all of those pointers is Mister Universum, with the rest falling down on at least one- but they are only stats as a guide. With any luck the winner is in that initial list of 6 and that’s where i’ll focus and see if there is a bet. It looks competitive enough with plenty of lightly raced, in form, horses.

*

 

Cartmel ‘Through The Card’ 

Info/starting points…

Trainer Race Pointers

Festivals/race trends…Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Non trends races…those that won the race last year 

Trainers ‘in form’

’14’Geegeez Symbol as per key 

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

*

No geegeez speed ratings, so HRB and Inform…

1.55

Trainer Race Pointers

Ofcourseiwill (McCain/Hughes won last year with What Happens Now) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Mac Tottie W

Top Rated Runners

Fact of The Matter / Fact of The Matter 

 

2.30

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Utility / Candy Burg / Wells De Lune W 

Top Rated Runners

Wells De LuneW  / Wells De Lune W

 

3.05

Trainer Race Pointers

Boruma / Wood Breizh (trainer won with Altruism last year, C Jones rode)

Trainers ‘in form’

/

Top Rated Runners

Beeno / Exitas 

 

3.40 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

/

Top Rated Runners

Eric The Third / My Renaissance W

 

4.15 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Benton’s Lad 

Top Rated Runners

Sleep In First / Bambi Du Noyer W 

 

4.50 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Chantara Rose 

Top Rated Runners

Damiens Dilemma / Dun Faw Good |Shaiyzar 

 

5.25 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Undefined Beauty 

Top Rated Runners

Secret Escape / Undefined Beauty 

 

My thoughts… nothing too original in what follows but we shall see how they go…famous last words but it does feel like  a card for those near top of the market… all the usual caveats, i’ve whizzed through this in around 10-15 mins…

1.55 – Mac Tottie (toss a coin for any of front three,this one is biggest price,yard red hot!)

2.30 – Candy Burg

3.05 – Volcanic

3.40 – Motion To Strike

4.15 – Bentons Lad

4.50 – Chantara Rose / Damiens Dilemma

5.25 – Undefined Beauty

 

*

 

Thundercloud...damn…the below video is only 7 minutes, I think it’s a form of therapy.I was close to that one, but not close enough at 10s this morning, blinded by a 9/2 shot…most of what i discuss below I did think pre race…work to do but the thinking/rationale discussed is the way forward, and if you take something from it to apply to your own punting, then great. Or you can just enjoy my temporary misery. The Opus Dei kit is still in it’s box, more positives than negatives but plenty of room for improvement…

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. Summer Plate tips from free post…

    3.15 Summer Plate

    Bagad Bihoue – 1 point win – 15/2 (sky/lad/betfS/PP) 7/1 (gen)

    Brian Boranha – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)

    Josh

  2. systems can be weird at times , some good races tomorrow but only one qualifier ,mainly because of unsure going, and i won’t have time to run them again late morning . wouldn’t have picked the qualifier in a month of sundays but that’s systems.
    16:50 Cartmel. Milans Well 33-1 wh

  3. Flat Jockey Profits

    A better day today with 3 wins and 1 place. Depends on whether you went win only or EW but for me it worked out at 18.5pts profit to BOG for 2pts win up to 10/1 and 1pt EW above that.

    There are a high number of qualifiers tomorrow but I’ve done some analysis on the raw data and found a few filters that give similar or better returns for significantly fewer bets. It will take a bit of time to explain them all and it’s getting late so I’ll explain tomorrow or Sunday but it’s based on a range of odds for each jockey.

    For now I’ll put up all the qualifiers and mark those that do not qualify after the filters have been applied with an asterisk and leave it up to you whether to take them or not.

    Frankie Dettori (Newbury)
    1.50 Fajjaj 16/1*
    3.00 Bacchus 6/1

    Adam Kirby (Newbury)
    2.25 Stars Over The Sea 40/1*

    Oisin Murphy
    2.45 Newmarket Melodic Motion 11/2*
    8.15 Lingfield Fearless Warrior 10/3*

    Jim Crowley (Newbury)
    1.50 Spark Plug 9/2*
    2.25 Quloob 13/2
    3.00 Yafta 10/1
    4.10 Conspiritor 8/1
    4.45 Melodies 5/1
    5.20 Mankib 13/2

    William Buick (Newbury)
    1.50 Emotionless 9/4*
    2.25 Hochfeld 16/1
    3.00 Equilateral 10/3

    Paul Hanagan (Newbury)
    2.25 Percy’s Word 18/1*
    3.35 Red Balloons 7/1
    4.10 Cool Reflections 20/1*

    There are also a no. of qualifiers for what I call Ryan Moore Strategy 2 (ie. RM/AO’B combo). I don’t have any filters for this strategy as they didn’t provide the raw data but the profits for this strategy were pretty good in the report.

    Ryan Moore (Curragh)
    2.35 Mount Tabora 2/1
    3.45 Full Moon 15/2
    4.20 Just Wonderful 7/4
    4.55 St. Patrick’s Day 7/4
    5.30 Magic Wand 11/8
    6.40 Frankincense 5/2

    There are a few races with extra places available so I have reduced my ew threshold to 7/1+ in these races.

    One thing I will say is that the last 3 Saturday’s have been fairly profitable with profits of 25.2pts, 18.4pts and 48.9pts respectively (cue big loss tomorrow!!)

    Hope that all makes sense. I’ll be playing golf tomorrow morning and it’s my grand-daughter’s first birthday party in the afternoon so I won’t be around to answer any questions but feel free to comment and I’ll get back to you later tomorrow or Sunday.

    Good luck.

    1. Well done Ken, lots of runners which I guess is an issue with Saturday cards. There is a long running discussion about Saturdays being different from the rest of the week generally. I guess if you are breaking down any system you could split it between Saturdays/ Festival days and other days and see if results compare? I think that, and I have no evidence to prove this, that other days would have more winners, taking account of volumes, but at lower SP’s. Obvious I guess?
      Anyway hope you kept out of the rough, #fairwaysarenice.

  4. Tried to stay away from the flat, after 30 odd years trying to work it out i can finally say i do not have a clue when it comes to picking winners!?
    Ways in are and probably always will be a mystery, the jumps game, whether summer, or winter is a different kettle of fish and i have concentrated on two races here and gone for obvious picks, (well Josh won`t thank me).

    14:05 Market Rasen
    COURT MINSTREL 20/1 boylesports 1pt ew
    This is a marmite horse, if at his best, he has the speed to see of all of these and come with a really late rattle, was his last race a blow the cobwebs off race? we will find out here, may appear late and strong, but, at 20/1 is value.
    HASSLE 17/2 PP 1pt ew
    Been there seen it / done it horse who could bolt up here if reproducing those runs, has gone up in class here, but, will love the conditions and the course, value at 17/2.
    15:15 Market Rasen
    BRIAN BORANHA 14/1 gen 1pt ew
    Won after a nine month absence and will have come on leaps and bounds for that, unexposed and lightly raced should enjoy this extra challenge. Aiden Coleman on board who isn’t shy when fighting out a finish should be able to cajole this warhorse into the driving finish, first place!
    SHANTOU VILLAGE 12/1 gen 1pt ew
    Is something of a forgotten horse, he was favourite for the Old Roan chase back in October last year, he is now 10lb lower and could be the best handicapped horse in the race, his speed figures suggest this tight track will favour him and he should give a good account of himself!

    That is all for today, best of luck with whatever you back today!

  5. Amazing Red Newbury 14:45 1pt e/w
    Hey Jonesy Newbury 15:00
    Sumkindofking Market Rasen 15:15 1pt e/w
    Masham Star Newmarket 16:00 1pt e/w

  6. We have two more bets in the starting points chasers sequence:-
    340 Eric The Third – Stake £16
    415 Bambi du Noyer – If the previous bet loses, then stake £18.
    If Eric wins at a price greater than 2/1 the bet will be £12; otherwise £14.
    The last five bets have lost but we will still be in profit if both these lose.

    1. Bambi breaks the run of losses, W11/4, BSP 3.83 (2.69), returning £48.42 thereby clearing the last three losing bets so the next stake is £12.
      The bank is £30 below its peak at the end of June.

  7. Rum lad 2.55 ripon
    Blame roberta 3.55 newb
    Island brave 2.25 newb
    Court minstrel 2.05 m.r
    Teepeetime 8.30 hay
    Gibeno 3.10 curr
    New kid in town 3.40 cart
    Nautical nitwit 3.05 cart

  8. COLINS BETS
    Newbury
    2.25 Sir Chauvelin
    5.20 Lake Volta
    Market Rasen
    2.40 Intifadah
    Newmarket
    Mr Wagyu
    Ripon
    4.05 Atkinson Grimshaw
    4.40 Weellan
    5.15 Multellie

  9. Chris M Selections:
    Newmarket
    14:15 – Rosamour (6/1 gen)
    14:25 – Queen of Connaught (7/1 gen)
    15:25 – Meshardal (5/1 gen)
    16:00 – Masham Star (15/2 gen)

    Market Rasen
    15:50 – Card Game (7/1 gen)
    16:25 – Royal Village (6/1 gen)

    Cartmel
    15:05 – William of Orange (14/1 gen)

    Lingfield
    19:15 – Babyfact (14/1 bet365, 12/1 gen)

    That’s all from me, hopefully finish the week on a high!

  10. Handicap Winners:
    240 Red Hot Chilly
    330 Indomeneo
    340 Eric The Third
    515 Snax
    520 Top Score
    645 Timoshenko
    800 Airton

  11. ITV7
    all above 13-2 ew
    Newbury.
    1-50 Autocratic 9-2*
    2-25 Sir Chauvalin 14-1*,Almoghared 7-1
    3-00 Yafta 10-1*, Hey Jonesy 9-1
    3-35 Society Queen 18-1*, Good Tyne Girl 25-1
    Market Rasen.
    2-05 Mystic Sky 20-1*, Ocean Jive 14-1
    3-15 More Bucks 9-1*, Calett Mad 7-1
    Newmarket.
    2-45 Ejtyah 6-1*
    starred are my itv7 entries and a 5p ew accum for 1/2 mill quid 🙂

  12. My E/W Lucky 15 for today,
    Market Rasen 2.15 Ocean Jive 12/1
    Market Rasen 3.15 Not A Role Model 20/1 (4 Places)
    Newbury 3.00 Yafta 12/1
    Newmarket 4.00 Silver Quartz 15/2.

  13. Tips – 2.25 Newbury, Almoghared, some 6/1 still about, 5 points win. A three year old at the bottom of the weights from the Gosden stable, in a handicap here, set to move onto group class. What can go wrong?

    Minus 14.25 points in July to date.

    Good luck.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.