Members Daily Post: 19/07/18 (complete)

Tips x3 + write ups, Section 1 (comp), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Hamilton

2.30 – Life For Rent (3yo+, + micro age) H3 I3 3/1 UP

3.00- 

Yes You (all hncps) I1 5/1 

Gullane One (3yo+, + m age) I3 G3 7/2  WON 7/2 

3.30 – 

Tor (all hncps) I1 G3 11/2 S2  WON 6/1 

Davys Dilemma (m age) H1 I3  2/1 S2 UP

4.00 – Where’s Jeff (all hncps) w2 w1 I3 G1 Evens S2 

5.05 – 

Finnion Fox (3yo+,+ m age) 14/1 UP

Crazy Tornado (m runs) ES+I1 9/1 S2A S6  UP

 

Chepstow

2.10 – Peak Storm (m dist) 16/1  UP

3.40 – Major Valentine (m age) I3 G3 13/2  UP

4.40 – Delirium (all hncps) H3 G3 5/2 S5  UP

5.15 – Warofindependence (m age) I3 G1 11/2 S2 UP

 

Leicester

3.20 – Sioux Frontier (m class/age) w1H3 G3 11/4 S5 UP

3.50 – On A May Day (all hncps, 3yo+,+ m age) 14,30 ES+ 9/2 S3A UP

5.25 – Me Before You (m age) H3 I3 5/2 3rd 

 

Epsom

7.05 – Big Storm Coming (m age) I3 5/1 WON 5/1

7.40 – Macaque (all hncps + m dist) I3 3/1 UP

 

Doncaster

None. 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 15/172,60p, -7.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +144)

Daily Tips

2.50 Leic – Tember – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 9/1 (PP) WON 8/1>5/1 

4.50 Leic – Albert Boy – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) UP (no excuse, in perfect spot I thought and faded tamely, having taken a walk in market)

5.05 Ham – Red Charmer – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) 3rd (ok run,exciting for a time, well beaten enough and the gamble landed on Irish raider) 

that’s it for tips (09.00), a slight change of approach today, write ups below..

A slight change of approach today in that I didn’t really like any of the stats quals on this page at the prices and while no doubt i’ve got the odd one wrong, i thought i’d try and use all the tools at my disposal to make some sort of effort to improve on the daily tipping which has been crap all year to date. I don’t really have an excuse for how things are going and I really need to up my game on that front. I should be much better day to day, it’s as simple as that. I’m putting more emphasis on ‘in form’ trainers, hot form, class droppers and jockey changes, mixed in with how I look at races generally, and more use of geegeez instant expert to get a feel for races/horses/ways in, with my own subjective interpretation of value. The ‘big race’ tipping has been decent ever since I started blogging back in 2013, and while there is always room for improvement on that score, it’s a pretty good foundation on which to try and constantly build. Last Sept-Oct showed what is possible with the daily tipping and I need to try and recapture those heady heights. I’ll get there, no doubt about that, and with that said…

Tember – a 3YO seller wouldn’t usually be a betting race of choice for me but there was plenty to like about this one’s chances at the odds, in what seems an open enough race with no stand-out. Barron is the only trainer ‘in form’ (geegeez as per Key), 3/15,7p in the last 14 days, and while that doesn’t mean the rest are out of form, it’s a big positive. The horse runs for the first time this season when the trainer is ‘hot’. Barron doesn’t come to Leicester that often but is 4/14,5p here in the last year. Barron and Curtis are 4/12,5p here in the last year and 3/12,4p when teaming up in the last 30 days, 2/5,3p in the last 14. The horse has the odd bit of ‘hot form’, esp that Ripon race over 6f where although well beat, it was a decent enough race for the grade given 21 other horses have since run, 7 winning (a few multiple times), 13 places (inc the wins). The horse drops into selling class for the first time and also runs over 7f for the first time. He ran over 8f LTO and was up there until 1.5f out or so, before fading. He races prominently and this stiff 7 could be ideal. He shows up well on a few of the ratings sets and some of the inform ratings and it’s a race without a stand-out horse. A few have tried selling class before and the others look very moderate also. Barron does ok in Sellers, 2/13,7p in the last 4 years, and he’s 8/20,10p when dropping a horse down 1f into selling class, since 2003. At 8/1 I thought there was enough to go on. It could be he doesn’t like winning and he may fade out of it again, but i was happy to roll the dice with him.

Albert Boy – I thought this CD winner (the only one in the race) should be fav here and was probably 1 point too big. We shall see if that judgement is correct but he arrives here in form. LTO at Doncaster he returned after 103 days off and ran with credit given the break and the fact it was a C5. He rallied there and stayed on again, like an in form horse. He returns 13 days later here and is hopefully cherry ripe now. Of course it could come too quickly but I’m guessing there and he is 1/7,3p in flat handicaps returning 8-15 days. The winner has yet to run again but he was unexposed, and the horse that finished 1.5L behind him, Dalshand for O’Meara, has since come out and won a C5 off 68. He was splitting two horses rated 70 and 71 in that race. He’s one of only two horses with win on Good to Firm in this, the other being Sexy Secret who looks a main danger but he’s never run well here and just scraped home in a C6 at Yarmouth LTO, up 3lb. There is some strength to that with the second winning twice since. Pace was the other tick in the box – this one likes to make all and he may well do so, or in any case be in the right spot. M Applebys likes to get on with this but over this trip may not have the pace and in any case looks really out of sorts/arrives after 57 days off. At some point I’d like to think he will hit the front and be able to put the breaks on. There are no younger/unexposed/inform hot pots in this, with the rest having plenty of questions to answer also. Kieran O’Neill jumps on and the horse is now 3lb below his last winning mark. I thought there was plenty to like about his chance,albeit it’s a class 6 so I suppose anything could happen. But, if he runs as he did LTO, and builds on it, i’m sure he’s the one to beat here.

Red Charmer– another who I thought should be fav here, on my reading of him and the race. He runs here for an ‘in form’ trainer, 3/10,3p in the last 10 days, 3 of her last 5 runners winning. This one just loves Hamilton and this CD, his 4 runs yielding 3 wins and it’s his first run here since his last win in June 2016. He’s had his problems since and he returned this season after nearly a year out. He ran well at Ayr on his second run back, and then tailed off at Beverley- there is a chance that 3rd quick run after a break did for him. He had a 30 day break and returned at Ripon LTO in a Class 5 off 51. He came a 3l 4th there, having been up there for a time and plugging on at the end. He was bottom weight, beaten by the three horses at the top of the handicap,rated 70, 69 and 72. Racemaker finished just ahead of him and he’s since won on his next start, a C5 at Ayr. The other two have yet to run. He drops back into a C6 here, back at his favourite venue, now 11lb below his last winning mark. He probably isn’t as good as that anymore but he should have a bit in hand here. Graham Lee rides for the first time and he rides the track well. He is another that races prominently in a race lacking loads of pace and he should be able to get out from his draw and adopt a prominent position. It could be that whatever injury he had has affected him, and he just doesn’t like putting down/going through with it anymore. But, given all of the above, he really doesn’t have an excuse today. It seems a rather weak event, with plenty out of form. Zoravan drops in class but that hasn’t been the reason for his defeats – he just looks a bit of a mule these days, but the race may fall apart for him and a repeat of  recent run may be good enough. Not one to trust at 4s given he doesn’t like winning. Crazy Tornado – well he’s an S6 and if mine doesn’t win I hope he does but on paper he just looks out of form and is 0/11,1p on GF. I struggled to work out why he would bounce back, but strange things can happen at this level. It’s interesting that J Feane takes a trip over the water to run two in this. Ana Lichious is well treated but GF is an unknown for that one also, having been kept to AW/soft for much of her career. Dutch Coed won here two starts back, in a weak event, beating a horse in second who’s now 0/20, although the 3rd has since won. But he’s up 6 and has since run an awful race at Newcastle, although maybe doesn’t like the sand. Anyway, there was plenty to like about Red Charmer and I thought he should be shorter given my reading of him/this race.

So, that’s those three. I’d like to think if I take such an approach to every future tipped horse that the profit pile will only go one way in time, as those horses nearly tick every box I like to be ticked I think. There are no unexposed/in form horses to worry about today, such runners beating me in every race yesterday. Ideally you’d want bigger prices on a couple but I think they are value still.

Trixie? We could have some fun for a 50p, (£4) £1 (£8) trixie here, but maybe it’s asking too much for 2 of them to win! But, it’s good to be confident at this time in the day.

GL if you follow me in.

 

 

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re-cap – I started out on Wednesday with so much hope. The two jumps pokes ran well enough, no complaints there and happy enough with how i read those. Two more seconds to add to the pot, frustrating. Still, more positives than negs with those. Had the Mulholland horse jumped as well as the winner at the last, they’d have had quite the battle to the line, but that’s racing, and the result may have been the same anyway. The less said about the flat picks the better. Onto Thursday.  

 

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Recent Tips

3.40 Chep – Major Valentine (3rd run) UP

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

8.35 Donc – Zodiakos 13/2 UP

Top of the Class (report HERE>>>)

3.20 Leic – Sioux Frontier 11/4 UP 7/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Saturday Stats/Pointers

A look ahead to Market Rasen on Saturday…some stats/trends etc for the hurdle and the chase, for those of you who like to take an early look…READ HERE>>>

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

43 Responses

  1. COLINS BETS
    July so far
    Bookmakers
    SP + 26.734 points

    BOG + 47.375 points
    Anyone wishing to back my bets you need a Bank of 100,ie £10 bets you need a Bank of £1000,when the Bank grows to £1500 then the stake is £15,£2000 stake is £20 etc.
    No Bank please do not bet for there will be long losing runs at some stage.

    1. Well done Colin, a shining light in what feels like a month+ of gloom haha. Keep it up, and as always, wise advice.

      1. Not this weekend for it is Tramlines music festival 3 days and nights live music all over the city so my bets could be very late being put up over this period.Hic

        1. Didn’t know you were a Sheffield lad Colin.
          I grew up on Foxhill,still work at the Northern General and quite a few of my colleagues are doing Tramlines.
          Andy M

          1. Hi Andy
            Northern General excellent Hospital,back there for a 3 year review Dec/Jan,where do 1 go for tea and biscuits haha.
            Tramlines fantastic event,on Sunday Shaun Ward who played for Simply Red for three years including playing on the Stars Album is playing at the the Blues Club in Broomhill(had a few beers with him over the years)heard him play a few times outstanding, tickets download £5 or £7 on the door.

          2. I won’t be able to make it but I’ll mention it to my colleagues,sounds like a good gig.
            Andy

  2. We soldier on. I am actually only 10.8pt down for July. Thought it was more.

    Cruck Railie Leicester Thursday 16:20 1pt e/w-Price available 11/1-Beckett and Bentley have some excellent stats at the track (2 wins and 3 2nds this year from 5 runs), with 2yr olds (3 wins and a 3rd from their last 5 starts) and over 7f (3/3 on their last 3 starts and 4/6 this year) both on the flat. In her only start on the flat she ran well enough in a hot enough class 2 which suggests her opening mark is lenient including 3 lengths behind a horse who won a class 2 handicap off 76 and breeding suggests the step up to 7f will suit. Bentley slims down to 8st4lbs for the first time in almost 14 months. Trainer in excellent form at the moment.

    1. Nick its all ups and downs and at the end of the year you hope that you have had more ups,it always hurts when you are on a poor run,for me May was a disaster and June only won on BOG.
      The saying in Cyprus maybe tomorrow my friend,sure your turn around starts tomorrow.
      Cheers
      Colin

    2. Nick

      Your bad run is easily explained – I started following your tips in July, having paper traded them for a while beforehand. As usual whenever I start following someone, they encounter a bad run. I will stop following you with real money for a week & I can (almost!) guarantee that things will improve again for you. Best of luck!

    3. Hi Nick,
      I rarely bet in nurseries unless I’m there, but dug this out from my notes.
      “I quite liked Greeley when I saw him on debut but looking at his 2nd outing he was never really put in the race and he does look to have a high head carriage, probably just going for a low h’cap mark today and might be worth looking out for in nurseries.”
      This looks like his first run since gelding, may have had an attitude but I rated him 70 on looks so in theory he only needs 8lbs from the top weight and he is getting 18. Here are the pictures from his debut
      https://imgur.com/a/oKPVe
      He might be either a wrong un or just slow but the slow ones don’t usually look like him. Might be worth a saver.
      Hugh

      1. Well Greenley has come out of another hot race although the 52 days is an odd rest pattern and its going to take a few weeks before I back anything ridden by the jockey after the ride he gave mine yesterday.

      2. Well done Hugh, always take note when you put such thought into your comments haha – glad I read through, missed the big prices but saver on at 16s, so can’t complain too much.

        1. Just seen the replay, he still seems to be carrying his head strangely and is clearly a tricky customer but should win again. Hope he only gets 6lbs.
          Hugh

  3. No joy on the AW so with one NR thats -4pts on the day.

    Flat Jockey Profits Qualifiers for Thursday

    Silvestre De Sousa (all at Leicester)
    2.20 Jaquar 9/2
    2.50 Zabaletasawansong 6/1
    3.20 Moxy Mares 13/2
    3.50 On a May Day 5/1
    4.20 Delft Dancer 3/1

    Recommendation is win or each way, your choice (slightly higher returns for ew)

    Good Luck

  4. no qualifiers today.
    looking through the cards a couple of things caught my eye the booking of Kirby on Shalamzar 16-1 in the 4-50 leicester could be a positive and in the 5-05 Hamilton Clary 16-1 returns after a long lay off on what appears to be a good mark, both might be worth considering for a fun bet ew.

  5. Chris M Selections:
    Doncaster
    20:00 – Mazzini (9/2 gen)

    Epsom
    19:05 – Big Storm Coming (5/1 gen)
    20:10 – Data Protection (11/4 gen)

    Killarney
    14:25 – Antimatter (11/1 gen)

    Leopardstown
    18:05 – Annas Girl (50/1 gen)

  6. COLINS BETS
    Hamilton
    3.30 Theglasgowwarrior
    5.05 Ana Lichious
    Chepstow
    4.40 Grams And Ounces
    Doncaster
    5.45 Muatadel

          1. I was dithering over whether it might get even longer and went to get a glass of pop. My fault entirely, Francis. Between the three of us we seem to have started the steam.

  7. U.S. Racing tips – Gulfstream race 5, 9.08 UK time, Starship Trebbles. Tuesday’s selection was a loser.

    Tips – 5.45 Don, Bondi Beach Boy, 1 point each way at 7/1 BOG. Well suited by today’s conditions and ran well enough LTO. Minus 14.25 points in July. Yesterday’s selection was backed down to 11/4 but faded final furlong in a bunch finish.

    Good luck

  8. Just a quick note to say SunBets have ceased trading.

    Anyone with funds in their account should withdraw immediately.

    It’s a shame but I would like to think collectively we have played a big hand in this closure.

    1. Yeah first time I had to stop using a bookie before they restricted me! Got a few bets on with them today as well so fingers crossed they honor them all.

        1. Well that theory is about to be put to the test. Would like to know either way what they do before my next runner.

  9. Haha! The problem for any new bookie is that they inevitably attract the ‘wrong’ type of customer first. With high barriers to entry and merging of the major players, the future is very concerning tbh.

    They really need to establish a minimum bet liability as part of the UK gambling licence – it is the only way forward. I’m pretty sure it would work out better for the bookies than they think – it would reduce the requirement for this multi-accounting nonsense for a start.

    1. I agree Francis in a lot of what you say. To establish any kind of base needs a multi-million investment architecturally and promotionally. In addition customers are constantly asking “what is different” about sites, see Cashout, request a bet, bet builder, BOG, money back as a free bet, enhanced place terms etc, betting club rewards etc.

    1. That’s better. Always nice when the first one goes in, 6 points clawed back on the day whatever happens, but I rather hope one more can go in, my fun trixie may have been a little more than £1, I couldn’t help myself haha, but i’ve probably set that up for a fail now. I’d have taken 1/3, him being the winner, after posting. We shall see.
      I’ll keep the booms down until I drag that daily tips p/l pile up to a respectable number!

    1. Me too so can you please take a look and I promise not to ignore your advice and lump on the favorite like last time!

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