Members Daily Post: 17/07/18 (complete)

Section 1 (comp) , Test Zone, New report, Bath ‘through the card’ , Beverley ‘through the card’

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT

Beverley 

4.00 – Jacbequick (micro dist) I1 G1 10/1 S1 S6  UP

4.30 – Mon Beau Visage (m TJC) H3 I3 7/2  UP

5.30 – 

Outlaw Torn (all hncps + m going) 25/1 UP

Polar Forest (all hncps + m going) 18/1 

 

Bath

3.40 – Puds (all hncps) w1 H1 I3 G3 3/1 S2 S4 UP

 

Thirsk

7.10 – Fire Leopard (m age) I3 12/1 

8.40 – Cascella (m dist+age) (hncp debut) 7/2 

 

JUMPS

Worcester

6.50 – Mr McGuinness (all hncps) 12/1 S2

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/164,56p, -8.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +144)

Daily Tips

NONE today. Nothing on here at the prices luring me in. I looked at the 6.50 Worc (qual above and in test zone) but decided that was too competitive what with 4 LTO winners, all of whom are still open to improvement and the rest of them look in decent form also. It could be a decent recent to track for a summer handicap hurdle. 

re-cap well yesterday’s poke didn’t run very well at all. I don’t know if an issue will come to light but he travelled strongly behind the pace setter and was in the perfect place to pounce if good enough. He didn’t look to be over-racing, but maybe he hated the headgear, or the race came too soon, or i got his character wrong and he is just a monkey. Hard to back him again after that effort until showing more, but he should have wins in him, but that was a backwards step. Noseda’s didn’t run that well either. One to forget from me there. 

 

Recent Tips 

3.30 Bev – Stormin Tom (3rd run) WON

6.50 Worc – Eureu Du Boulay (3rd run)

7.10 Thirsk – Tan Arabiq (2nd run)

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Irish Angles

De Bromhead

8.00 Kilar – Devils Bride / Our Dougal

A Honeyball 

7.50 Worc – Port Royale (m1, 10/1<, m2 5/1<)

D McCain (14/1< guide)

6.50 Worc – Good Tradition w1

R Hobson 

6.50 Worc – Eureu Du Boulay

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

5.50 Worc – King Muro UP

 

Flat

NEW

Class Trainers 

8.10 Thirsk – Ventura Gold

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW…

I spent a few hours on Sunday with my head stuck in HRB with a focus on trainers that do well in certain classes at certain tracks. This report isn’t complete yet as there are a few more I need to plough through. We shall see if it works as a systematic portfolio in due course but should be a good ‘way in’ if nothing else. I also want to have a look at class droppers later in the week. I will make this available for free when complete but will post quals in the test zone for members only.  

You can flick through what I have so far,inc the Thirsk angle above, HERE>>>

*

BATH ‘through the card’ (as requested)

Trainer Race Pointers

Festivals/race trends…Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Non trends races…those that won the race last year 

Trainers ‘in form’

’14’Geegeez Symbol as per key 

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

*

2.10 

Trainer Race Pointers

none.

Trainers ‘in form’

Surrey Blaze

Top Rated Runners

Surrey Blaze /Warofindependence / Spiritual Man

 

2.40 

Trainer Race Pointers

None.

Trainers ‘in form’

All Back To Mine

Top Rated Runners

North Korea /All Back To Mine /North Korea|Elieden

 

3.10 

Trainer Race Pointers

Archimedes (horse won race last year also)

Trainers ‘in form’

None.

Top Rated Runners

Essaka/ Look Surprised / Archimedes

 

3.40 

Trainer Race Pointers

None.

Trainers ‘in form’

Show Stealer

Top Rated Runners

Puds / Global Rose / Show Stealer|Justice Lady

 

4.10 

Trainer Race Pointers

Count Otto

Trainers ‘in form’

Little Boy Blue / Procedure

Top Rated Runners

Rebel Streak / Joegogo / Count Otto

 

4.40 

Trainer Race Pointers

none.

Trainers ‘in form’

Valyrian

Top Rated Runners

Desert Cross /High Wells / Sotomayor

*

Thoughts… None on the Bath card given members x are no longer going, and in truth it’s a small field/short odds/trappy sort of day there, which isn’t worth much of my time. 

The Windsor ‘starting points’ found 5 of the 7 winners yesterday, (most fairly short though) 3 of those appeared at least twice within the race notes (inc for example double top rated)

So, as Lee is off to Beverley, i’ll have a look there instead…

 

Beverley

2.00 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

/

Top Rated Runners

Of those with a run…

Diamonique / Blazing Dreams / Salmon Fishing 

 

2.30 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

/

Top Rated Runners

Groundworker/ Donny Belle / Thornaby Princess

 

3.00 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

/

Top Rated Runners

Kibaar / Kibaar / Foxy Boy 

 

3.30 

Trainer Race Pointers

Psychotic 

Trainers ‘in form’

High On Light / Altra Vita 

Top Rated Runners

Altra Vita / Altra Vita / High On Light 

 

4.00 

Trainer Race Pointers

Mywayistheonlyway (horse won race last year) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Mywayistheonlyway 

Top Rated Runners

Hitman / Jacbequick / Jacbequick 

 

4.30 

Trainer Race Pointers

/

Trainers ‘in form’

Kirkam / Tight Lines 

Top Rated Runners

Tight lines / Ghayyar / Carnageo|Kirkham 

 

5.00

Trainer Race Pointers

Bollin Joan / Holy Wings

(Bollin Ted won it last year for Tim E, D Fentiman rode him…) 

Trainers ‘in form’

If We Can / Heirslookingatyou / Austellus 

Top Rated Runners

Johni Boxit / Rock On Bertie / Johni Boxit 

 

5.30 

Trainer Race Pointers

Graceful Act (horse won race last year) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Correggio 

Top Rated Runners

Island Song / Graceful Act / French Mix 

*

My own thoughts

i’ve spent approx 2 mins per race here so some caution as always, but of some interest to my through the card eyes…we shall see how they go…

2.00 – Salmon Fishing 7/2

2.30 – Donny Belle 13/2

3.00 – Highly Focused 3/1

3.30 – Psychotic 11/1

4.00 – Mywayistheonlyway 5/2

4.30 – Tight Lines 15/8

5.00 – Bollin Joan 15/2

5.30 – Island Song 6/4

Donny Belle is prob the most interesting ‘at a price’ to my eyes. Mywayistheonlyway and Tight Lines for the ‘make all’ double,and maybe a treble with Island Song thrown in…but that’s only for fun if at the races i’d suggest, to contribute to a round at the bar! 🙂 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

38 Responses

  1. Francis posted yesterday that a couple of us are going to Bath, it was to be him and me. Unfortunately, I’ve done something to my hip making it painful to walk so have had to cry off, means Francis isn’t going now either.

    I did a bit of research into profitable trainers at Bath on firm ground last five years.

    2.10 Hallingham, K Cunningham-Brown, 3/14, 21.43%, +6.5.

    2.40 Elieden, G Kelleway, 2/8, 25.00%, +10.5.

    2.40 Tisneverending, J S Moore, 4/29, 13.79%, +15.75.

    3.10 Archimedes, D Griffiths, 2/3, 66.67%, +4.88.

    3.10 Aragon Knight, J Hughes, 12/74, 16.22%, +7.51.

    3.40 Puds, C Hills, 15/49, 30.61%, +21.94.

    3.40 Global Rose, G Kelleway, 2/8, 25.00%, +10.5.

    4.10 Three Little Birds, S Kirk, 6/40, 15.00%, +26.38.

    None of these trainers’ figures satisfy The Great God Chi, Creator Of All Winning Systems, at the 95% level, so I would regard the qualifiers as starting points.

    Hallingham is a CD winner, has won on firm and is 6lb in hand of last win, looks worth a punt to me at 12/1.

    I do not intend to tip here on a regular basis though.

  2. Hi Josh,

    I’m also at the track tomorrow, unfortunately, it’s not Bath, but Beverley. If you managed to find time for some through the card pointers, it would be greatly appreciated although I appreciate you’ve already gone through Bath.

    Cheers,
    Lee

  3. Elieden Bath Tuesday 14:00 1.5pt win Price available 5/1
    Donny Belle Beverley Tuesday 14:30 1pt e/w Price available 8/1 (I will count it as 3 places but 4 places with only 10 runners makes this an even better bet)
    Aguerooo Chelmsford City Tuesday 15:50 1pt e/w Price available 7/1 (Chance he gets pulled but has won off 2 and 3 day breaks in the past)

    1. Elieden goes in the 2.40 at Bath. Aguerooo should be fresh as he jogged around at the back on Monday and ran on when it was too late to be placed.

          1. Hi mate

            I can’t understand how bookmakers Work, I’ve had my Skybet account now for a couple of years only bet horses, and they give me £50 on the money back 2nd 3rd on a Saturday or the big meetings give me bankroll boosts all the time, however I get other bookies restrict me after a few bets Bet Victor by far the worst bookie of the lot.

            Can’t get my head around how they work at times.

          2. A guy at William Hill told me that the algorithms pick out certain things and they get referred to a group who look at them and restrict etc if they think it relevant. With humans you get inconsistencies and they get bored and so some are tougher on punters dependent on the bookies rules and how they feel. But that is just what this guy said.

          3. Thanks Martin.

            Funnily I have just had my Coral account restricted today!! Had a few winners in that account over the weekend, it’s an absolute disgrace to be honest, something should be done about it.

            Cheers. Steve

          4. I do like this thread.

            I hold many accounts with various bookies. I also have a friend who’s high up in one of the major firms.

            They know their stuff…..trust me! I’m aware of one person who’s account’s never been restricted. He’s lost 7.5million in 2 years!!!…and he never strikes a bet less than 1k. He took 120k off them in a day. This bloke is only aloud to strike his bet with. 3 people within the organisation. The key to protecting your account is the type of bet you do. If you are successful with your single selections and are constantly beating the price you won’t have your accounts for long.

            The other thing is greed. Yes we’ve all been there. Is there really anything wrong with giving the enemy a little something back?….. But not 7.5m obviously.

            Keeping track of with whom you strike your bet on any give day can be time consuming. For me it’s importance is parallel to the selections. Mix it up.

            Be aware of who, If anyone, that you follow in making your selections. Try and avoid the masses. This can be the quickest shortcut to having your accounts restricted or closed. If anyone who’s brave enough to follow Geraint Williams at the moment will probably have their accounts closed in the event of the next decent 3 figure payout. Or at least have their multiple bets very much restricted….Something that I believe is happening to plenty now! The bookies hate the following he’s got.

            Something for your consideration

  4. Nothing so far at Wolves with one to go.

    Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers below:
    2.50 Mutanaasib 5/1
    4.20 Image 4/1
    4.50 Glory Awaits 9/2
    5.20 Normandy Blue 10/1 (PP/BF), generally 15/2
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

  5. Thanks to Josh and Kieran for allowing us to put up qualifiers from the Flat Jockey Profits report.

    Qualifiers for Tues 17th July, all at Chelmsford.

    Adam Kirby
    4.20 Ziarah 7/2 – 1pt win

    Jim Crowley
    2.50 Althaaqib 6/1
    3.20 Shanghai Grace evs
    3.50 Pretty Bubbles 9/2
    4.20 Fakhoor 11/4
    4.50 The Warrior 8/1
    5.20 Normandy Blue 15/2 (was 10/1 with PP/BF but now gone)
    1pt win or 0.5pt ew – your choice. The profits in the report are only slightly less for ew. Personally I back win only evs – 10/1 and ew above that.

    Good Luck

    1. Just for further interest.
      Crowley/ Chelmsford only = 219/46, 21%, +23.26pts

      Non Hcp only ( first 2 runners today) = 81/23, 28%, +36.08pts

      Chris R.

  6. Don’t normally post a tip on here but
    Beverley 5.30 – Different Journey stands out as a Trainer / Jockey good thing

  7. U.S. Racing Tips – Thistledown race 6, Native Wahoo, 7.10 UK time. Oddschecker prices come up two to three hours before the race. It is important to get on then as the SP returned comes in a lot lower. Sundays selection won and was 7/1 on Oddschecker and returned at 9/4.

    Good luck.

    P.S. No rain in Kent #scorchedhearth

  8. Chris M Selections:

    Beverley
    16:30 – Mon Beau Visage (7/2 gen)

    Killarney
    20:00 – Azzuri (5/1 gen)

    Thirsk
    20:10 – Admiral Rooke (7/2 gen)

    Another close call yesterday, need some luck on my side!

  9. Hi josh, one of my rare posts, no tips I leave that to all you experts. Just a quick thank you for yesterday, had a sticky run on the horses. But had the 3 shorties from your pointers at Windsor in singles & a treble that paid 9/1, also had rock n rolla the S1, so hopefully back on track. Interested in the Thirsk/trainer angle today as I am going on August 3rd & will politely give you a nudge nearer the time if that’s ok
    Great blog & great content as always
    Thanks

    1. Great to hear Harry, that’s the whole point of this ‘new’ through the card approach. It keeps finding winners, and sounds like you found a fun/profitable way to play them, and no doubt got a fair bit of satisfaction from picking out the treble etc. Well done.
      Yep the ‘where to begin’ strats, keep ticking along I think and S1 is solid, that should just keep doing so with any luck. I need to bring all the results up to date for last few weeks and will do that this week.
      It’s been a sticky period, or felt like it, across the board generally. My daily tips have been dire this year so far, far from ‘expert’ class haha. Thankfully the Festival tips have done well so I can’t complain too much but yet to find an approach/method to the daily tips and I need to work harder on that. I am putting more stress on trainer form/ hot form/ class moves I think, and jockey changes. It will get there, at some point. In general I have found the mid week racing tough on the flat but that’s the game, and the wider picture is ok.
      Keep us posted if you use any other through the cards to find some decent multiple wins etc!
      Josh

  10. COLINS BETS

    2.40 Bath North Korea
    3.30 Beverley Stormin Tom the odds on fav is going up in distance and class and for me is worth taking on,however i am a great fan of Prescott when he has an improving 3yo on his hands,we shall see.

  11. Interesting little snippet I gleaned from Twitter this morning:

    The only two flat courses that are not stating a going stick reading this morning are the only two flat courses that have watered and received rain overnight.

    Do not bet on the first race at Beverley or Thirsk. Do not analyse those meetings until after the true going is known.

    Thirsk received 20mm & has only changed from G/F to Good. Really??
    Beverley 4.5mm but still G/F.

    1. Beverley had a going stick of 8.1 as of 11.45 so that just looks like admin error. That would suggest pretty fast to my eyes, and it has been bloody hot, I doubt 4mm makes much difference, but depends on the watering I suppose. Enough info to go on there I think, and if transpires on good/soft side, then clearly misleading.

      Thirsk, still no reading but no note of it being watered ground on BHA, so with any luck they expected it and it may just be good going. A breeze and 22 or so again today and given evening meeting should only dry out but time will tell.

      If either are on soft side then opens up opportunities later in card if any such horses will now relish it. Prob best waiting until after 2nd race Bev as first race may not tell us much given it’s a novice.

      Time will tell! Bev still seems quick from info available.

      Josh

    2. There was a shocking lack of ‘going info’ for both courses at 0630 from the clerks, at a time when running decisions might be being made and us poor punters are studying form.

      1. oh yep, i mean truly awful, why that hasn’t been updated first this this morning is anyone’s guess, and even more paramount given both had rain. Poor. This game is so archaic at times.

  12. I’m a big fan of Joe Fanning and was invested as well but the ride he just gave Highly Focussed was excellent. Well worth a watch.

    1. Hmm… i’m not so sure but haven’t read trainer quotes about horse (if there are any) or watched his previous runs…but, IF he doesn’t get him up and loses by a nose that is an abject ride. He sat still for around 1/2 a furlong with clear air in front before he got after him…clearly didn’t want to use the stick and that may have been under instructions due to the horse, but given he’s won plenty/stays 6f, i’d suggest he could have won that by a more comfortable half length, easily. Maybe i’m being harsh but that was a tad more luck than judgement, as when deliver that late you’re asking for trouble. But I could be talking nonsense and the horse pulls himself up if in front too long- if that’s the case it was a peach, if it isn’t, I think he could have done better haha

      1. QUOTES: You can’t hit Highly Focussed. If you do, he curls up. We thought he was an AW horse, but he’s doing all right on turf, though he only decides to run when he wants to. Joe gave him a good ride. He suits him – George Duffield, trainer’s husband.

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