Members Daily Post: 16/07/18 (complete)

Tip x1, Section 1 (comp), Windsor ‘through the card’ info, Hot Form trainers, free jockeys report….

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ayr

2.30 – Erastus (m dist) 8/1 UP

3.05 – 

Rock N Roll (m dist) w1 H1 I3 G1 5/2 S1 S4 WON 5/2 

Maulesden May (m dist) 11/2 UP

 

Ripon 

5.25 – Airplane (m dist + dist move) w1 H3 9/4 2nd 

 

Windsor 

7.20 – Kick On Kick On (m TJC + 90 days) w1 9/2 

8.20 – Know Your Limit (all hncps 5 yrs, all hncps) 14,30ES+H3 I3 11/2 S3A#

8.50 – Regina Pacis (all hncps 5 yrs, all 3yrs) (hncp debut) 14,30w2ES+G3 5/2 S3A

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/163,56p, -7.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +144)

Daily Tips

8.20 Windsor – Know Your Limit – 6/1 (gen) 

6/1 seems too big here for me and he is one of those losers (or likely 2nd chasing home Noseda’s no doubt!) that I can live with as I think it’s the right bet in here… while this one has yet to win he is very consistent and deserves to get his head in front. He doesn’t look to be a monkey as such to my eye but appears to have enough going for him. He should be winning soon. The yard continue in fine form, 8/29,13p the last 14 days. The jockey is riding well and together they are 7/24,13p in the last 30 days when teaming up, 3/14,6p at the track, and he now knows the horse. He drops from a Newmarket C2 back into a C4 here and it’s that Leicester run I’m pinning plenty of hopes around. I’ve just watched that video back and the winner go first run on him that day and then cut him up. It could be he’d have finished second anyway but would have been much closer. However, that Lanigan horse has since won twice more, the last time off 86 and were he not cut off there would have been a big enough gap back to the rest. The horse gets 1st time CP to help him today, and Walker is a respectable 4/22,9p when applying those for the first time. In a race without much pace, they have the option to go forward here. When you keep bumping into one/running on late/not having a race run to suit, that’s an option. If I owned him I’d be wanting them to try and make all. Finally, I found the rest pattern of some interest. This is his 4th run of the season, returning 17 days after his last start. His previous two runs after his seasonal return were 39 and 47 days. Maybe he does need time between races but with flat horses, or any for that matter arguably, I always like to see them come out within three weeks if not shorter, unless obviously having a hard race LTO. 

So, that’s the case for him. I think he’s this price due to the Fav, and maybe it’s foolish taking on an unexposed one from the in form and every so shrewd Jeremy Noseda. He’s been quiet for a time but appears to be rocking and rolling now. This one looked tricky the last day but also drops in class and will probably be sharper for that last run. Noseda is a a rather decent 8/21,10p, +17 with horses in 1st time blinkers (gulp) , 16/48,21p, +27 with all runners in blinkers albeit a handful of multiple winners in those stats. The only reason not to back the selection in my view is being scared of this fav, and that is never a good enough reason for me, not when it’s just one horse, and I like the price of the selection. 6s does feel a shade too big, esp if he repeated that Leicester run, he should be in there. Of course the fav may just go whoosh and prove to me well ahead of his mark but on that Leicester run Know Your Limit should be creeping up to 90 at some point in his next few starts. No doubt another one I haven’t considered will now win 🙂 

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Recent Tips

None.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

NONE.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

‘Through The Card’

This is an ‘information based ‘through the card’, using the same approach as at Newmarket. Clearly on a mid week card there won’t be many races with stats/trends but in HRB I can see who trained last year’s winner, if indeed the same race is being run again. This is very much intended as information to use as starting points, but it worked very well at Newmarket. It could be the info is useful for placepot purposes, fun multiples, or indeed as a way in for a certain race you wish to attack etc. Where possible I’ll focus on a evening meeting as that allows plenty of time to dive in if you wish. I won’t do this every day, maybe aim for 2x a week min, but if some of you find it useful It’s something extra on relatively quiet days, and I will try and do one for 1 meeting every Saturday. It could be it only works within ‘festivals’ but we shall see. In any case there should be useful info there for you to use if you have the time to do so, that you may not have access to. 

 

So, to Windsor 

Trainer Race Pointers

Festivals/race trends…Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Non trends races…those that won the race last year 

Trainers ‘in form’

’14’ Geegeez Symbol as per key 

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

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5.50 

Trainer Race Pointers

no corresponding race 

Trainers ‘in form’

Advanced Virgo W

Top Rated Runners

Midnight Mood 2nd / Rainbow Jazz / Rainbow Jazz 

 

6.20 

Trainer Race Pointers

/ Teal won it last year with Tip Two Win- no runner 

Trainers ‘in form’

None. 

Top Rated Runners

for those with a run…

Magical Wish / Barristan The Bold / Magical Wish 

 

6.50 

Trainer Race Pointers

/ Balding won last year’s, no runner 

Trainers ‘in form’

Concierge 

Top Rated Runners

Of those with a run…

Concierge / Superstition / Swiss Pride 

 

7.20 

Trainer Race Pointers

Hills won last year’s, no runner. 

Trainers ‘in form’

None. 

Top Rated Runners

Just That Lord / Just That Lord / Tomily 

 

7.50 

Trainer Race Pointers

No corresponding race 

Trainers ‘in form’

Red Emperor 

Top Rated Runners

Mouchee / Say About It / Mouchee 

 

8.20 

Trainer Race Pointers

None, Crisford won last year, no runner

Trainers ‘in form’

Know Your Limit 

Top Rated Runners

Just Pires / Just Pires / Swilly Sunset 

 

8.50 

Trainer Race Pointers

None, Ed Walker won last year’s, no runner. 

Trainers ‘in form’

Regina Pacis / Sharp Practice 

Top Rated Runners

Prides Gold / Zoraya / Rinaria 

 

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Hot Form… who starts the week in red hot form… again, info to use as you please…

For the last 14 days,5+ runners, 30% + win SR, all runners, with runners today or tomorrow…

  • W Mullins (11/23,14p) 
  • R Michael Smith (3/7,4p) 
  • G Scott (2/5,4p) 
  • R Fell (6/17,10p) 
  • S Bin Suroor (9/27,15p) 
  • Richard Spencer (4/13,5p) 
  • H De Bromhead (6/20,9p) 
  • Dr Newland (5/8,5p) 
  • D Skelton (12/25,14p) 
  • J Camacho (4/10,6p) 
  • N Henderson (3/8,5p) 
  • Rae Guest (2/6,3p) 
  • P McBride (2/6,2p) 
  • O Murphy (4/13,6p) 
  • Sir Mark P (7/23,12p) 

 

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Jockey’s Report

There was some discussion in the comments about Kieran Ward’s free report he gave away a few weeks back. With his permission he said you can all have the direct link if you wish, as below. You’re also free to post up/discuss any qualifiers within these members’ pages if you so wish. Ken appears to have been doing well with them in recent days…

Free Jockeys Report HERE>>> (direct link)

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. Aguerooo Wolverhampton Monday 19:10 1pt e/w Price available 11/1
    La Sioux Ayr Monday 16:40 1pt e/w Price available 11/1

  2. AW Update:
    w/c 9 July: Staked 19pts, Profit 20.5pts, ROI 107.89% or £102.50 to £5 stakes.

    Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers below:
    8.10 Oswald 5/1
    8.40 Top Offer 12/1
    9.10 Acclafrith 9/2

    1pt win each.

    No qualifiers for Flat Jockey Profits tomorrow. Looks like there will a few on Tuesday. If I have time, I’ll post them tomorrow evening.

    Good Luck

  3. COLINS BETS
    AYR
    2.30 Star Cracker
    2.30 Brendan
    4.40 Racemaker
    WOLVERHAMPTON
    7.10 Aguerooo
    8.10 Dutch Monarch

    July
    Bookmakers SP + 11.734 points
    BOG + 24.875

  4. Tips – 6.50 Win, Superstition for 1 point each way at 14/1 BOG. Seems to be improving now and ran OK last time out and can go on here.

    U.S. racing – Yesterdays tip won at 7/1 via Oddschecker and was returned at an SP of 9/4. I will post tips here when they come through.

    Good luck Martin

  5. Chris M Selections:

    Ayr
    15:35 – Strong Steps (8/1 gen)

    Windsor
    18:20 – Barristan the Bold (11/2 gen)

    Killarney
    20:00 – Achiever (8/1 WH, 15/2 gen)

    Results for last week will follow after, although they seem to read as they have done for the past few weeks…..

    1. Re-Cap w/c 9/7/18:
      36 bets – 5 winners and 1 N/R
      S/R: 14.29 %
      ROI: -18.57%
      P/L: -6.5 pts

      Overall:
      158 bets – 33 winnners and 4 N/R
      S/R: 21.43 %
      ROI: -8.00 %
      P/L: -12.32 pts

      Becoming frustrating how close the weeks results are to being great. Some good priced runnuers placing, jsut no quite able to get that win. Makes betting EW more attractive but I know I can hit the nice priced winners its just a matter of patience.

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