Members Daily Post: 14/07/18 (complete)

Festival Tips x4, Section 1 (comp) , Newmarket Pointers , Bunbury/John Smiths Cup stats/shortlist, Newmarket through the card

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Chester

2.40 – Crotchet   (micro dist) H3 G3 6/4 S5 2nd 

 

Newmarket

1.40 –

Makzeem   (micro dist) 14,30 15/2 UP

Cardsharp    (micro’s -class move and +dist move) 14,30 H1 I3 20/1 S2 S6 3rd 

Mountain Rescue    (all Hc’s, 3yo+)  w2 25/1 UP

Ice Lord    (all Hc’s, 3yo+) G1 33/1 S6 UP

 

York

1.55 – Muthmir    (5yr all Hc’s) w2 14 ES+ H1 G3 I3 10/3 S2 S3A# S4 UP

3.10 –

Baraweez   (micro going if GF)  w1 H1 I1 9/1 S1 S6 UP

Parys Mountain    (micro season runs)  w2 G1 10/1 S6 UP

3.40 –

Afaak   (micro class)   w2 G1 

Across Dubai    (5yr all Hc’s) 14 ES+ 12/1 S3A  UP

Dance King    (micro season runs)  w2 40/1 UP

4.15 – Humble Hero   (5yr all Hc’s, 4yo+, micro class) 14 ES+ H3 I3 7/2 S3A# UP

 

Hamilton

6.30 – Scoundrel   (3yo+, micro age)  w1 H3 G3 I3 2/1 S4 S5 2nd 

7.00 – Barracuda Boy   (micro dist) G3 I1 16/1 S2 S6 UP

7.30 – Multellie   (3yo+) H3 G3 5/1 S5 UP

8.00 –

Falcons Fire   (micro season runs)  w1  ES+ H1 I1 7/2 S1 S3A# UP

New Abbey Angel    (micro season runs)    ES+ H3 G3 I3 11/2 S3A# S4 S5 2nd 

Fastalong    (3yo+, micro age) 13/2 UP

8.30 –

Gun Case   (micro season runs) I1 16/1 S6 UP

Colour Contrast    (all Hc’s, micro season runs) I3 5/1 UP

 

Salisbury

7.45 – Golden Image   (micros class, age)  w1 H3 G3 11/4 S5 2nd 

 

Ascot 

None 

 

JUMPS

N.Abbot

4.35 –

Beau Phil   (micro +class) 16/1 S2A UP

Ruby Russet    (micro class) 12/1 S2 UP

5.05 –

New Millenium   (all Hc’s) H1 I1 5/1 2nd 

Top Chief    (micro class, 0 season runs)  w1 w2 4/1 UP

5.35 –

Great Lover   (all Hc’s) 66/1  UP

Time and Again    (micro TJC, age) 50/1 UP

Gaelic Flow    (micro class) I1 18/1 S2A S5 UP

 

Bonus (ireland) 

3.15 Lim – Viking Hoard   (HcH) 3/1 3rd 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

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Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/163,56p, -7.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +144)

Daily Tips

NONE today, I have run out of time to flick through the stats quals properly, but in any case plenty of strategy quals to get stuck into for any followers of those, and with any luck S1, S4, S6 and S3A# can find a few winners today, although a few seem unfenced but you never know and that’s the point of systems. A decent winner for S6 yesterday that hopefully can be built on today. GL with any bets. 

 

FESTIVAL TIPS

1.40 Newmarket 

Masham Star – 1 point win – 22/1 (places) 20/1 (gen) UP

Mountain Rescue – 1 point win – 28/1 (places) 25/1 (gen) UP

Ah bugger. Burnt Sugar as per note below. Typical. That’s painful. 14/1 winner got away there. Damn. 

 

3.40 York 

Whats The Story – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365/BetfS/PP) 12/1 (gen) UP (ran ok, but never threatened) 

Dawaaleeb – 1 point win – 40/1 (gen) UP (poor) 

 

I doubt any time for an in depth write up but may add something later. Some speculative punts and I only wanted two horses in each. In the first I discarded Burnt Sugar last and at York Brorocco was last to go, but you can’t back them all. If either wins ill be starting into the abyss for a time. 

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Recent Tips

to follow

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THAT’S IT for main content, will attempt to add some ‘through the card’ notes for Newmarket and York at the bottom of the post, by 12pm. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.25 NA- Mighty Leader UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Newmarket Day 3 

Mark Johnston
Stats for the previous 5 meetings: 

All: 55 bets / 9 wins / 17 places / +54 BFSP

  • 8f or further: 7/22,10p, +73 BFSP
    • Inc a 25/1 winner
  • Ran at ‘a Festival’ on last run (Royal Ascot/Newmarket Guineas/Epsom Derby/Chester 2 Day July/Sandown 2 Day mid June/Sandown Eclipse)
    • 7/24,12p, +76
    • Just Royal Ascot LTO: 5/16,9p, +29
  • Distance Move: Up 2f – 3/7,3p, +70
  • Horse had 4-13 career runs: 8/25,11p, +82
  • Class 2/1m2-1m2.5f: 4/11,4p, +73
  • Handicaps:all 4 wins have been over 1m2f: 4/11,4p, +73
  • Jockey had ridden horse 1+ times before: 6/24,9p, +70

 

M Johnston Day 2 ‘Qualifiers’ 

1.05 – Blown By Wind

1.40 – Love Dreams / Cardsharp / Masham Star

4.30 – Final

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Trainer Race Pointers

Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Trainers ‘in form’

’14’ Geegeez Symbol as per key 

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

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UPDATE: Well this approach seemed to work again as ‘starting points’, with 6 of the 7 winners highlighted somewhere, and 4 of those appearing at least twice within each race. Sadly I only found Comunique in my ‘through the card’ notes with the rest of my effort pretty abject in truth, although still a profitable day. Hopefully some of you did a bit better. Looking back at the pointers, leaving Hamada (double top rated, won LTO, progressive,C Appleby here) and Ripp Orf (trainer in form/top rated/Moore booked) were probably most annoying. The ‘trainer in form’ pointers found a 20/1 winner, and Appleby won the maiden…I think it’s now fare to say that he targets the maidens at this meeting, and looking for those that Buick and Doyle are on will probably pay it’s way for a few years yet. Hopefully a few of you have used them to good effect. This approach looks a valid one, as it contains plenty of winners and gives us all a ready may starting list of horses in which to focus on/make a case for, which should save time/improve results in time, with any luck. This is shaping up to be one of my better ideas and in time should ensure I/we land on plenty of tasty winners hopefully. I’ll see if I can take the same approach to the odd weekday meeting, or at least one every Saturday say, certainly for the ‘in form’ and ‘top rated’ elements. On we go… 

 

1.05 

Trainer Race Pointers

Cape of Good Hope (3/12,7p) / Certain Lad (2/14,4p) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Blown By Wind / Cape Of good Hope / Forseti / Quorto W

Top Rated Runners

Certain Lad /Blown By Wind / Blown By Wind 

 

1.40 

Trainer Race Pointers

Trainers ‘in form’

Speculative Bid / Love Dreams / makzeem / Cardsharp / Muntadab / Burnt Sugar W / Masham Star / Spanish City 

Top Rated Runners

Cardsharp / Ice Lord / / Muntadab 

 

2.15 

Trainer Race Pointers

Intelligence Cross|Spirit of Valour|Fleet Review|Sioux Nation|US Navy Flag W (3/25,4p) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Blue Point / ALL of Aidan O’Brien x5 W/ Sir Dancealot / Eqtidaar 

Top Rated Runners

Blue Point / Blue Point / Blue Point 

 

2.50 

Trainer Race Pointers

No trends in HRB, but you guessed it, Appleby won it last year! (Assembly of Truth) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Antonia De Vega W/ Assembly of Truth / Gallic / Romola / Run Power / Zagitova 

Top Rated Runners

Of those with runs…

 Gallic / Spanish Aria / Assembly of Truth 

 

3.20 

Trainer Race Pointers

Argentello (2/9,3p) / Qaroun (2/13,3p) 

Trainers ‘in form’

First Contact W / Moqarrab / Ibraz / Qaroun 

Top Rated Runners

Clubbable /Curiosity  / Curiosity 

 

3.55

Trainer Race Pointers

Trainers ‘in form’

Poetic Charm W / Whitefountainfairy / Amandine 

Top Rated Runners

Poetic Charm W/Whitefountainfairy / Perfection 

 

4.30 

Trainer Race Pointers

Drill (2/7,5p) W

Trainers ‘in form’

Final 

Top Rated Runners

Final /Drill W / Final 

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BIG RACE FOCUS

1.40 Newmarket: Bunbury Cup

Not too many useful stats pointers here… Age 7+ (0/28,3p), those with 0-2 places in handicaps (inc wins) (0/41,8p)… those 2 stats only ‘remove’ 7. 10/10 were sent off 16/1 or shorter, those with a bigger SP 0/70,7p in last decade, so the market tends to get it right. 

Of those currently in that odds range, and hitting those stats above: Gilgamesh / Makzeem / Mukalal / Spanish City/ Firmament / Burnt Sugar 

Currently bigger than 16s: Masham Star/ Von Blucher / Muntadab / Mountain Rescue / Ice Lord / Love Dreams / Reckless Endeavour 

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3.40 York: Johns Smiths Cup 

10/10 were up 1/2 F or more from last run

10/10 had 2+ runs in prev 90 days 

Removes 9/leaves 10: Brorocco / Across Dubai / Whats the Story / Kynren / Mordin / Another Touch / Master Carpenter / Titus / Dawaaleeb / Fayez 

9/10 had 3-7 runs in last year, and from the initial set above leaves 9/48,19p, +110 BFSP last 10 renewals. Leaves…

Across Dubai / Whats The Story / Another Touch / Kynren / Mordin / Titus 

Those to have never run at York, 8/26,14p, leaves…

Whats The Story / Mordin / Kynren / Dawaaleeb

0-5 runs in handicaps 8/28,11p: Across Dubai / Mordin / Kynren / Titus / Dawaaleb 

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Newmarket ‘through the card’

Well that was an abject attempt again, I really shouldn’t bother when rushing as you get what you deserve. Another poor effort of judging which of those near the top of market to go with/take on, which 3/1-11/2 shots to be with etc. Still, some promise for the ‘starting points’ approach again, esp ‘in form trainers’ . A poor day all round really. 

Using my notes above, and sticking to my natural instinct in general of bigger priced ones…having gone for a load of shorties yesterday with no luck, no doubt the top of the market will now dominate today! Anyway, I did rush through these a tad, which never usually works but here goes…

1.05 – Blown By Wind UP / Certain Lad UP

1.40 – Masham Star UP/ Mountain Rescue / UP

2.15 – Blue Point  (Eqtidaar EW if wanting one at a price?) UP

2.50 – Run Power EW UP / (Assembly of Truth UP looks good, esp given boost to Yarmouth run!) 

3.20 – Qaroun UP

3.55 – Whitefountainfairy UP

4.30 – Final 2nd W

 

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YORK…

No ‘through the card’ . Sorry to the two of you off there today, I’ve ran out of time to do that card justice… I have tipped in the 3.40 and I’d add the Baling horse in there, hopefully one of main two can win or if not he can. I think all of the strategy pointers in Section 1 look interesting to some degree and hopefully one or two of those go well. I’d be rushing were I to look through now. I don’t mind having a blow out if I’ve had a good go at it, but I’d be cutting corners and if they all fell out the back of the tv would be inexcusable. So, I’ll leave you to it today. GL

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. A welcome winner today. Tomorrow is arguably the best day of racing of the year outside of the Big Festivals given the amount of quality races. (and you could argue what we get at Ascot/Newmarket/York tomorrow outweighs what you get in a single day at Cheltenham although I might thrown out of here by Josh for saying that) In all honesty I haven’t had time to go through everything with a fine tooth comb given I am out early tomorrow morning all day but I like all of these:

    Limato Newmarket Saturday 14:15 1pt e/w-Price available 9/1
    Major Jumbo Ascot Saturday 12:45 1pt e/w-Price available 15/2
    Parnassian Ascot Saturday 16:10 1pt e/w-Price available 16/1
    Brorocco York Saturday 15:40 1pt e/w-Price available 10/1

  2. Hamilton Guncase 14/1
    Like its run here over CD came 2nd beaten a length in a 0-70 off 61.
    This is easier as the top rated goes off 62. The horses profile shows it likes a straight undulating track.

  3. Tips – 12.45 Asc Major Jumbo 2 points each way. 4.10 Asc Parnassian 2 points each way.

    U.S. Tips – Belmont Race 9, 10.50 UK, Voodoo Song and Mr Helenkamp, back both and put in exacta.

    Short of time for write up. Good luck.

  4. Hamilton 7.30 Sebastians Wish 25/1
    Done all its winning at Musselbrough but the sire stats for Hamilton are an impressive 14-4-7.
    Been running out in front in too higher grade last twice. Race before that probably didnt like the softer conditions. Now finds itself in a class 4 off a mark of 79 with a 3lb claimer. So runs off an adjusted 76 last winning mark 78. Stepped back down to 12f here so im expecting it to go from the front. My guts telling me to pie on so Im making this a 4pt Nap.

  5. COLINS BETS
    Ascot
    12.45 Line Of Reason
    York
    1.55 Muthmir
    3.10 Parys Mountain
    Newmarket
    3.55 Elysium Dream
    Chester
    5.25 On A May Day
    Hamilton
    7.00 Hee Haw
    8.30 Global Wonder

  6. Chris M Selections:
    Ascot
    12:45 – Major Jumbo (7/1 gen)
    13:50 – Glory (5/1 gen)
    14:25 – Considered Opinion (9/2 gen)

    Newmarket
    14:15 – Dreamfield (8/1 gen)
    14:50 – Gallic (9/1 gen)
    17:20 – Argentello (11/2 gen)

    Limerick
    17:00 – Running In Heels (10/3 gen)

    York
    13:55 – Muthmir (4/1 gen)

    Hamilton
    20:30 – Colour Contrast (7/1 gen)

    Good luck with whatever you bet

  7. Today’s h’cap winners:-
    1245 Haddaf EW4p (an exception, normally win bets, but due to nature of the race and price risking 2pts)
    345 Lucky Deal
    410 Dark Intention
    745 Reckless Wave
    800 Falcons Fire
    Recap 33% SR, 25+ pts profit to level stakes, BSP

  8. Hi folks,

    Switch the machine on last night and I instantly thought….. F**k that.

    Nick’s got the 4.10 Ascot covered in the shape of Parnassian.
    You can see why there is money for Plunger and SDS up. First time blinkers too. Your a brave man backing this one though with the trainer in such poor form.
    Ghost Serge is interesting interesting.
    Leech is doing ok with her 7f string in lesser grade races. I think it’s only a matter of time before one goes in in a class 4. This horse was 25s last night which I thought was skiny. 50s is much better. I’ll be having a reverse exacta on Nick’s pick and Ghost Serge.

    Good luck today.

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