Free Daily Post: 14/07/18 (complete)

3.40 York: John Smiths Cup

What’s The Story- 1 point win – 14/1 

Dawaaleeb – 1 point win – 40/1 

 

I’ve had a look at this race in the members’ post and tipped the two above. I used the following stats as a guide…

3.40 York: Johns Smiths Cup 

10/10 were up 1/2 F or more from last run

10/10 had 2+ runs in prev 90 days 

Removes 9/leaves 10: Brorocco / Across Dubai / Whats the Story / Kynren / Mordin / Another Touch / Master Carpenter / Titus / Dawaaleeb / Fayez 

9/10 had 3-7 runs in last year, and from the initial set above leaves 9/48,19p, +110 BFSP last 10 renewals. Leaves…

Across Dubai / Whats The Story / Another Touch / Kynren / Mordin / Titus 

Those to have never run at York, 8/26,14p, leaves…

Whats The Story / Mordin / Kynren / Dawaaleeb

0-5 runs in handicaps 8/28,11p: Across Dubai / Mordin / Kynren / Titus / Dawaaleb 

*

Whats The Story... well he appeared in a few places when looking at the stats and he ran a cracker in first time CP at Ascot when last seen. It could be that he won’t see out this trip but I thought he was worth another go at it given how he shaped LTO and he is still unexposed. ‘Roddy’ jumps back on and he’s riding well and knows the horse. I thought he looked interesting enough at double figures and if he does stay, should be in there pitching. The hope is that he may improve further for this sort of test. 

Dawaaleb… clearly a speculative one at 40s but again he appears in plenty of places on my stats and I could make some sort of case for him, so I thought why not have a go. The horse is unexposed and in form. Again hope rests on him improving for this step up in trip and indeed a big field cavalry charge. I always want a price for horses doing something different but it could be this is just what he wants. Of course he may well not be good enough to compete at this level but there’s only one way to find out and I thought he looked of some interest at a monster price. 

Dangers...well Dash of Spice is progressive but does have to content with the drop in trip which isn’t sure to suit. In any case, 4s is short enough for me in a race like this and if he still has stacks in hand then I’ll doff my cap to connections. Brorocco is the one that may annoy me the most if he wins. I only wanted two onside in this race and have gone for a couple that could have more upside potential. This one is now on a career high mark but he has some of the best field form at this distance in the race. He is every so solid and this race will be ideal for him. I can see a monster run from him, cutting through the pack in the final couple of furlongs and storming clear. That could happen, or there are some with a bit more in hand than him. I will have a saver on him as he was the last I crossed off my list. You’d have to fear the Varian/Andrea horse as well, and the drop in trip may suit, but having done the stats/trends, I very much used those as my starting point. We shall see if they hold up today. 

GL with any bets. 

*

Newmarket Pointers…

I have repeated some Members’ content below from Newmarket… I tried something different this week in how I provided useful info for each race. As well as offering my own opinion the members’ club has always been about me offering well researched info to help find your own bets, and so far after two days the below has done it’s job. On Day 1 5 of the 7 winners were mentioned somewhere and yesterday 6 of the 7 winners were covered. We shall see if it’s the same today but for each race there is a list of horses you and I can focus on, and info to help in any deliberations.

So, feel free to use the below in any way you please, hopefully a few winners mentioned somewhere but having now mentioned it on the free post, this approach will probably have a shocker now!

Key 

Trainer Race Pointers

Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Trainers ‘in form’

’14’ Geegeez Symbol as per key (an indication of trainer form from the best racecards/tools in the business) 

Top Rated Runners

Those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

 

1.05 

Trainer Race Pointers

Cape of Good Hope (3/12,7p) / Certain Lad (2/14,4p) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Blown By Wind / Cape Of good Hope / Forseti / Quorto 

Top Rated Runners

Certain Lad /Blown By Wind / Blown By Wind 

 

1.40 

Trainer Race Pointers

Trainers ‘in form’

Speculative Bid / Love Dreams / makzeem / Cardsharp / Muntadab / Burnt Sugar / Masham Star / Spanish City 

Top Rated Runners

Cardsharp / Ice Lord / / Muntadab 

 

2.15 

Trainer Race Pointers

Intelligence Cross|Spirit of Valour|Fleet Review|Sioux Nation|US Navy Flag (3/25,4p) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Blue Point / ALL of Aidan O’Brien x5 / Sir Dancealot / Eqtidaar 

Top Rated Runners

Blue Point / Blue Point / Blue Point 

 

2.50 

Trainer Race Pointers

No trends in HRB, but you guessed it, Appleby won it last year! (Assembly of Truth) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Antonia De Vega / Assembly of Truth / Gallic / Romola / Run Power / Zagitova 

Top Rated Runners

Of those with runs…

 Gallic / Spanish Aria / Assembly of Truth 

 

3.20 

Trainer Race Pointers

Argentello (2/9,3p) / Qaroun (2/13,3p) 

Trainers ‘in form’

First Contact / Moqarrab / Ibraz / Qaroun 

Top Rated Runners

Clubbable /Curiosity  / Curiosity 

 

3.55

Trainer Race Pointers

Trainers ‘in form’

Poetic Charm / Whitefountainfairy / Amandine 

Top Rated Runners

Poetic Charm /Whitefountainfairy / Perfection 

 

4.30 

Trainer Race Pointers

Drill (2/7,5p) 

Trainers ‘in form’

Final 

Top Rated Runners

Final /Drill / Final 

**

 

Do you have any fancies today, on what is a bumper day of racing? 

Josh 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

9 Comments

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  • massive day of racing on ITV,
    Newmarket.
    1-05. Forseti 10-1 could improve again.
    1-40. Mubtasim 8-1 has a big race in him and gets optimum conditions, Muntadab 22-1 could be worth a small ew punt.
    2-15. Limato 9-1 won this 2 years ago and could bounce back to form.
    3-20. Mayyasah 16-1 looked to be getting back to best lto.
    Ascot.
    12-45 Major Jumbo 15-2 model of consistency and should run well again ,Merhoob 33-1 looks interesting at the price with first time cheekpieces on.
    1-20. Arod 12-1 up in class but has run well in listed company.
    York.
    1-55. Muthmir 3-1 one of my favourites always gives 100% has a big chance.
    2-35. no bet in this for me.
    3-10.Baraweez 13-2 will have to beat his york jinx but has the ability to take this.
    3-40. sky paying 6 places so i’ll have a punt on these 3, Brorocco 10-1, Euchen Glen 20-1 and Fayez 33-1.

    martin whittle 4 months ago Reply


  • Yesterday +12 @bog and sp

    A12.45 – Haddaf @25 poss e/w
    1.20 – Century Dream @4
    N 2.15 – US Navy Flag @13/2
    C 3.15 – Shabaaby @11/2
    4.20 – Hatsofflarry @15/2
    S 7.45 – Groveman @2

    The following were close qualifiers and may start doing these if they keep performing but just info atm
    A 2.25 Hunni @11/2
    3.05 – Capton @9
    3.35 – Proctor @16
    N3.20 – Petrus @25
    3.55 – Elysium @8
    4.30 – Sporting @3
    C 3.45 – Wilde @15/2
    5.25 – Weellan @3
    Y 4.15 – Northwest @11/4

    Titus 4 months ago Reply


  • Saturday 14th July
    A good day at Newmarket yesterday particularly due to Josh’s mention of Communique. Al Mureib who I noted as going for Said B S ran a good race at 20’s to finish 2nd but like many in that race did not look quite hard fit. Photos will be posted tomorrow.
    Dombra was fifth running to around the mark I gave him from Salisbury of 74, he may be a bit better but is a tad too bulky. I mention him because there is a horse running today at Ascot that finished fourth behind Forseti and him in second at Salisbury. This is Duke Of Yorkie trained by Adam West.
    I only rated him 70 but he has had two runs, looked like he needed his second run and in a Novice Auction today as opposed to an open maiden at Salisbury whereas most of his opposition are on debut. The two who aren’t are Glory (66) and Mendoza (72).
    Normally I wouldn’t give an Adam West 2yo a second glance but in this event I think he offers great e/w value currently 50’s with 365.
    Mendoza is the most likely winner but 11/8 is ridiculous.
    He does not figure on ratings so Duke Of Yorkie has to be put up as an each way funbet.
    Newmarket 2.50pm 7f Mdn
    Superlative Stakes – No strong opinion here as I’ve only seen Forseti and don’t think he is top class.
    Ratings
    1. Antonia De Vega, Assembly Of Truth, Miss Serenity, New Jazz, Zagitova
    2. Gallic, Rux Power, Thebah
    I’m not going today nor can I see a way in here.
    Hugh

    alpha2 4 months ago Reply


  • Weakest Event bets:-
    310 Bless Him
    325 Petrou
    415 Vent de Force
    535 Sea of Mystery
    745 Reckless Wave
    815 Fannie By Gaslight
    830 Gun Case

    chrisrees 4 months ago Reply


    • Error: Reckless Wave is not a qualifier for this thread.

      chrisrees 4 months ago Reply


      • Please ignore this, posted in the wrong section; the above selections are correct.

        chrisrees 4 months ago Reply


    • Fannie By Gaslight W13.00, the others lost, Petrou being a NR.
      A profit of 6.40pts

      chrisrees 4 months ago Reply


  • I agree with your short list but not your final conclusion

    MORDIN is all set to explode in a stronger race just like many of the others did in races like the Royal Hunt Cup

    He is chucked in on my handicapping, I reckon he can easily be a 105+ horse so 94 is lenient

    MAXIMUM each way stakes advised

    rick 4 months ago Reply


    • Lets hope so. Got it in an e/w double with Burnt Sugar…

      gallou 4 months ago Reply


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