Members Daily Post: 12/07/18 (complete)

Festival Tips x4, (all tips complete) Section 1 (comp), July Meeting Day 1 inc through the card

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Carlisle

2.05 – Sheriff Garrett (micro TJC) I1 G3 9/2 S2 UP

3.50 – Cliff Bay (3yo+ hncp + m TJC/Dist) G3 12/1 UP

5.35 – Gullane One (m TJC) H3 G3 5/2 S5  2nd 

 

Doncaster

4.35 – Classic Pursuit (m going) I1 14/1 S6  2nd 33/1 

5.10 – 

Supernova (all hncps 5 yrs, all) 14 ES+ H3 I3 10/11 S3A# WON 10/11>4/6 

Coolongolook (all hncps + 3yo+) I3 G3 9/2 UP

 

Newbury 

5.50 – Sergio Leone (m runs) H3 I3  13/8  WON 11/10 

9.05 – Nicklaus (all hncps 5 yrs, all hncps, 3yo+) ES+ G1 11/4 S3A WON 11/4>5/2 

 

Newmarket 

None. 

Epsom 

None. 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/163,56p, -7.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

Daily Tips

NONE.

 

 

Festival Tips (+152 points 2018)

3pm Newmarket

 

Savalas – 1 point win– 14/1 (gen) UP

Stormbinger – 1 point win– 18/1 (gen) 2nd (nose, painful) 

Tadbir – 1 point win– 33/1 (WH/UniB/others) 28/1 (gen) UP

Desert Doctor – 1 point win – 50/1 (gen) UP

 

(they all may be a decent price on the machine, inc BFSP)

tips posted 09.32

Savalas… this looks an ultra competitive renewal and maybe throwing 4 points will prove to be foolish but having committed with the stats/trends below, I couldn’t help myself. This one falls down on a few stats but I was lured in by the pace more than anything. He ran a decent race at York where he was up there for most of the way. Had his jockey got after him sooner he may well have been in a head bob with the winner as they crossed the line as he was coming back at him strongly, showing that stamina wasn’t an issue. Top weights have a decent enough record in this and connections went very close with Tommy Taylor last year. I thought this track may suit and he could pull away and stay there as they hit the dip and climb for the line. I’d be surprised were he out of the top 4 in truth but time will tell. The pace does appear to be drawn high but the stalls are against the far side I think. So, it could be a case of blasting up the middle and who knows if there is a track bias etc. Anyway, he will be the one they have to pass I think. There are some other pace pushers/front runners in this but on the evidence of the last run I’d be surprised if any are quick enough to head him early on and if they do so they could be doing too much. He also shows up very well on the three ratings sets. I thought his price looked big compared to some of those that finished behind him/near him LTO and I had no idea why some of those should suddenly finish ahead of him here. I wasn’t sure why he should be 6/7 points bigger than Encrypted. There is a chance he gets trapped behind runners if he sits just off the pace as with last time. 

Stormbinger… one on the stats long list below and I just liked the fact that he had some course form and was doing something different – namely the drop back to 6f. Having watched his last two races he has shown plenty of speed from 2 to 1f, before then plugging on in the final furlong. He has a likeable attitude from what I could see- head bowed and trying his heart out, and I just thought these race conditions could bring out the best in him, at what seemed a generous enough price. 

Tadbir…well he is also on the long list and is a bit of a poke, and maybe I have an emotional attachments to trainer and jockey after Baccus but he was a big price and you could make some sort of case. He appears the choice of Crowley and he is another who is doing something different, again the step back to 6f. They remove the hood which I thought was interesting and it’s his first proper go in a cavalry charge on a straight track. It isn’t impossible that the ferocious nature of these contests unlocks something here- that’s similar thinking I apply to Festival handicap hurdles, and maybe it won’t transfer to a 6f 3YO Only handicap. In any case, we know the market isn’t much of a guide with connections in races like this and 2x 33/1 shots have won this in the last decade. You just never know. 

Desert Doctor… probably time to call for the doctor in truth but he hits my stats/trends shortlist, is 50/1, the trainer is in red hot form, Mosse rides this track very well, he’s unexposed (as with all in here, given their age) and is at least doing something different… this one is dropping back to 6f from 8f, where he didn’t do much at Royal Ascot – although, provided my eyes were watching the right horse, having watched it back he made some sort of move but was marooned up the middle of the track, away from the action. You can forgive any horse a bad run, esp a 3YO and at Royal Ascot.  Those dropping from 8f LTO are 5/22,6p in the last 20 years, +35, which allows us to dream some more. It could be that a fast run 6f is just what he wants, or he is just out of sorts/won’t be good enough. That’s my hunch but 50s shots will always have a few things to prove and there is some method to my increasing madness. 

No doubt 2 or 3 will now place, and I’ll be cursing not going EW, but I’m not shelling out 8 points on any race, and I just can’t bring myself to go 1/2 EW. That Festival pile would be around 60 points less with such an approach and I don’t like having less than 1 point on the win side. (oh to have had that approach for the Albert Bartlett, we’d have 25 more points. You live, and learn…eventually) Provided there is no track bias, (i.e. low will dominate/fastest ground) I’d be surprised if Savalas doesn’t place, famous last words. 

Of the rest…well, it’s a 3YO only handicap and if these all bomb out maybe it’s best I stick to the all-age handicaps. There are plenty at single odds that could go close here but I have no idea why, for example, Jaawaal and indeed Foxtrot Lady WON 8/1 should be ahead of Savalas, and why the odds should be so different. It could be this has been the target for the latter and given Balding’s record in the race she’s the one I’d be most interested in of those under 10/1. Breathless Times appears to have been living up to his name, having now had a wind op and getting a tongue tie also. Charlton is on fire and he is interesting. But 8s seems short enough, his price having crashed somewhat this morning. I can see why some may have had a nibble at 14s+ but he will need to be on the top of his game here. Maybe the LTO winners stats will be broken, and enough have placed in the last decade and there are plenty in this race, to suggest it may go. 

I should mention Gabrial The Saint, who I may throw change at given his place on the shortlist below… he is another that’s come from that York race, but again I had no idea why he should finish ahead of the Ryan horse, or indeed a few of the others that finished ahead of him that day. Fahey suggested the run may have come too soon after his Leicester effort, but he did have 18 days, so who knows. He would be the sickener in this, given his odds and the place on the stats below. But I thought he needed to step forward from somewhere. 

I may well have not mentioned the winner, it’s that sort of race, but given the couple of winners at Royal Ascot, I want to test myself in these Flat ‘festival’ handicaps. In effect we have +50 points from that meeting to play with on the flat. History would suggest I’m good enough at the big Jumps Handicaps, time will tell whether it’s the same on the flat, but there’s been some promise at least. 

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Recent Tips

3.50 Carl – Alexandrakollantai (1st run) NR 

5.35 Carl – Guardia Svizzera (1st run) UP

8.00 Newb – Monoxide (2nd run) UP

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

3.50 Carl – Inner Circle 3rd 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

JULY CUP FESTIVAL

What follows is information designed to be used as ‘starting points’ in helping find your own bets etc, to use/ignore as you see fit. At Royal Ascot I did note how well trainers ‘in form’ (14 geegeez symbols as per Key) seemed to perform, in particular in races where not many other trainers were seemingly as red hot. So, I thought I’d experiment by highlighting those runners, as well as the ‘trainer race pointers’. To start with there is a look at Mark Johnston also…

Newmarket July Cup Meeting 2018: 

Mark Johnston
Stats for the previous 5 meetings: 

All: 55 bets / 9 wins / 17 places / +54 BFSP

  • 8f or further: 7/22,10p, +73 BFSP
    • Inc a 25/1 winner
  • Ran at ‘a Festival’ on last run (Royal Ascot/Newmarket Guineas/Epsom Derby/Chester 2 Day July/Sandown 2 Day mid June/Sandown Eclipse)
    • 7/24,12p, +76
    • Just Royal Ascot LTO: 5/16,9p, +29
  • Distance Move: Up 2f – 3/7,3p, +70
  • Horse had 4-13 career runs: 8/25,11p, +82
  • Class 2/1m2-1m2.5f: 4/11,4p, +73
  • Handicaps:all 4 wins have been over 1m2f: 4/11,4p, +73
  • Jockey had ridden horse 1+ times before: 6/24,9p, +70

 

 

M Johnston Day 1 ‘Qualifiers’ 

NONE.

 

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Trainer Race Pointers

Trainers that have won said race 2x or more and have a runner

Trainers ‘in form’

’14’ Geegeez Symbol as per key 

Top Rated Runners

As with Ascot I thought I’d detail those horses top rated on HorseRaceBase / Geegeez / Inform

 

13.50

Trainer Race Pointers
First Eleven (Gosden 5/9,5p)Giuseppe Garibaldi / Victory Salute (2/3)Global Giant (2/11,8p)

In form trainers
First ElevenGiuseppe Garibaldi / Victory Salute /Wells Farhh Go

Top Rated Runners

Giuseppe Garibaldi / Global Giant / First Eleven

 

2.25

Trainer Race Pointers
Legends of War (2/4)

In form trainers
Van Beethoven/North Wind/Legends of War/Sporting Chance

Top Rated Runners

Van Beethoven / Van Beethoven / Advertise

 

3.00

Trainer Race Pointers
Breathless Times (2/6,3p)/ Foxtrot Lady (3/10,5p)

In form trainers
Staxton/ Breathless Times /Desert Doctor /Kimifive /Jawwaal

Top Rated Runners

Savalas / Foxtrot Lady / Roussel

 

3.35

Trainer Race Pointers
Mirage Dancer (6/18,11p)Muntahaa / Raa Atoll (2/15,6p)

In form trainers
Algometer/ Barsanti /Best Solution/ Laraaib /Mirage Dancer/ Muntahaa / Raa Atoll

Top Rated Runners

Mirage Dancer / Muntahaa / Muntahaa

 

4.10

Trainer Race Pointers
No trends / C Appleby did win last years race (Lover’s Knot)

In form trainers
Handmaiden/ IP Dip / Poetry /Lady Cosette/ Shaffire /Sunday Star / Yourtimeisnow

Top Rated Runners

Lovers Knot / Strict Tempo / Strict Tempo

 

4.45

Trainer Race Pointers
No trainer has won this more than once

In form trainers
Purser / Emaraaty/ Gabr/ Masaarr

Top Rated Runners

Symbolization / Symbolization / Emaraaty

 

5.20
Trainer Race Pointers
Compas Scoobie / Shamshon (2/5,3p)

In form trainers
Shaheen

Top Rated Runners

Shaheen / Duke of Firenze / Gracious John

 

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Race In Focus 
3.00: Bet365 Handicap 
10/182, 39p 

10/10 had 3 or 4 runs in prev 90 days (0/85,13p outside this) 

10/10 had 3-5 runs this season (0/61,12p outside this) 

10/10 had won over 6f+ (0/31,3p had not) 

9/10 had won at C3 or above 

8/10 sent off 12/1 or shorter (2x 33/1 winners) 

Horse won LTO (0/40,8p) 

Track LTO: York (4), Newmarket July (2) , Sandown (2) , Haydock (1) , Ascot (1) 

Trainers: A Balding (2/7,4p) 

 

The first four of those stats, the 10/10 and 9/10, leave just three…

Embour (won LTO) / Gabrial The Saint / Desert Doctor 

 

The 10/10 stats leave 10 in total: Burden / Roussel / Jawwaal / Staxton / Stormbringer / Tadbir / Music Society 

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NEWMARKET THROUGH THE CARD

Some caution here as I had a shocker at Ascot with this approach, and it would appear that rushing through Group races and homing in on one or two isn’t my strong point…who knew?! But, I’ll give it another crack and see how we go. Clearly my punting day revolves around the 3 pm. No doubt there will be some winners from the notes above, and I won’t land on any. But, here goes…

1.50 – 

Giuseppe Garibaldi

Global Giant EW

2.25 – 
Advertise 
3.00 – 
Savalas / Stormbinger/ Tadbir / Desert Doctor 
3.35 – 
Mirage Dancer 
Muntahaa EW
4.10 – 
Lover’s Knot 
Wingreen (market should guide) 
4.45 – 
Symbolization 
Walk In The Sun 
5.20 – 
Gracious John 
Duke Of Firezne 
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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. Left it a bit late but Fantasy Keeper came home at 7/1 adv to give us 3pts profit for the day. Slowly but surely things seem to be going in the right direction. Next AW racing is at Wolves on Monday. Back Sun with results update and qualifiers.

    PS Hard luck England. They should’ve won that. I know it’s no consolation but you have a team to be proud of.

  2. Billy Dylan Carlisle Thursday 16:25 1pt e/w Price available 9/1
    Purser Newmarket Thursday 16:45 1pt e/w Price available 10/1
    Acadian Angel Doncaster Thursday 17:45 1pt e/w Price available 7/1
    Wotabreeze Epsom Thursday 20:45 1pt e/w Price available 8/1

  3. Chris M Selections:
    Newmarket-
    13:50 – Giuseppe Garabaldi (3/1 gen)
    14:25 – Van Beethoven (6/1 gen)
    17:20 – Midsummer Knight (4/1 gen)

    Carlisle-
    16:25 – Pea Shooter (9/1 gen)

    Leopardstown-
    20:55 – Kolumbus (3/1 gen)

    Dundalk-
    16:15 – Inaamorare (13/2 gen)

  4. COLINS BETS
    Newmarket
    3.00 Buriden
    5.20 Shamshon
    Doncaster
    4.35 Iconic Knight
    Carlisle
    5.00 Dizzy G
    Epsom
    7.40 Aquarium
    8.10 Highland Acclaim
    8.10 Aleef

  5. Hi Josh

    I think someone may have requested this already but ill throw my hat in too.
    I’m off to York on Saturday so if you could cast your eye across the card i’d appreciate it.

    1. Hi Darren,
      yep it’s been noted. The last trip there was rather enjoyable for through the card. I am off to Newmarket on Friday, but Sat is free, although what with Bunbury there will be plenty to get through. But should be able to look after 11am before racing and post a comment up. I’m sure others will have a few fancies also.
      Josh

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