Nothing from me today.
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Golf – Tournament match up bet in Scotland – Graeme McDowell to beat K Aphinbarnrat at 2.05 for 5 points. McDowell is coming into form and needs to finish high to qualify for next weeks Open. An experienced links player against a player who has a poor record in that format.
World Cup – The bookies have big liabilities for England and money seems to be keeping coming on them. I am watching my ticker at the bottom of the screen and Croatia are drifting out to 3/1. That must be value? Anyway Come on England.
11/07/18 9:08 AM
The match bet looks good which bookmaker is offering that match up ?
11/07/18 10:03 AM
Matchbook. post for 2.05 and wait for a match.
11/07/18 11:07 AM
Yesterday (win) loss @bog -3.25, sp -4.25, (e/w) bog +0.55, sp -2.35
C 3.10 – Dont Tell Dandy @12
4.10 – Kensington Star @8
5.15 – Bow Belles @5
L 2.00 – Tell Tale @5
2.30 – Full Suit @7/2
B 8.40 – Mulsanne Chase @11/2
K 5.20 – Pride of Angels @11/2
5.55 – Polar Light @ 20 poss e/w
6.55 – Dance Me @12
8.25 – High Command @20 poss e/w
11/07/18 9:14 AM
Glorious Lover Windsor 6f Novice further review and photo file
I thought on a poor day’s racing this was a good race to do a bit of deeper analysis of the photos and way the race was run as there was some interesting things to see.
Photo file here: https://imgur.com/a/Wzres3N
Pre race comments in Italics
2. Sense Of Belonging, Indian Horseman
3. Boa Nova, Deadly Force, Glorious Lover, Show The World, Superseded
Ratings Bet 1pt e/w Swiper
I have pictures of Swiper, Requited and Boa Nova and gave them OR equivalents of 73, 75 and 74 respectively. All within a margin of error.
I have not seen Glorious Lover but on debut at Newbury he finished within 1l of Almurr who I saw for the second time last week and gave 79. That was a good race and he looks the most likely winner on form.
On physique of those I have seen I prefer Requited but without wishing to run Keniry down he is 5% at Windsor overall and 7% on 2yos. Other than the apprentice he is by a margin the worst 2yo jock in the race. I expect that if Requited still looks good and is a tasty price I will still have a muggy e/w.
I don’t really think Swiper will win but having failed to back single top rated horses at 8’s twice recently I swore I would never make that mistake again. Also Ryan Moore is up so an e/w seems a good option.
Post race OR equivalent ratings and comments
1. Glorious Lover – Pick of the paddock upper medium size, properly fit. Won this with only one reminder from Gerald Mosse and well on top at the finish. Still learning and took a while to pick up but well on top at finish. May well be under-estimated nto. 83
2. Boa Nova – Top end of small, neatly made and compact but size limited. Ran an ok race to, I think, his level. 75
3. Indian Horseman – Not quite the class in his build of Glorious Lover but a good-looking boy all the same. I was pleased to see him as joint 2nd top rated in my pre-race ratings. An unusual position in which to find a Tuite runner. He was close to a physical match for Glorious Lover if not so fine tuned. I went to the third place post in the winners enclosure and asked the stable lass if they were expecting that, she said not really as they were concerned that the ground would be too quick. Rab Havlin then came in and as he got off said to Joe Tuite something along the lines of ‘if I had not held him up I could have nearly won that’. One to follow although Mr Tuite often struggles to convert debut promise to results. This boy however has lots of scope. 80
4. Superceded – lighter build than the first three but ran well on debut and stuck on well. 75
5. Swiper – The writing was on the wall as soon as Swiper appeared in the pre-parade as he was very over excited and colty and lost his race before he went out. In retrospect as can be seen from the picture, although he is a decent size and strongly made he does not quite have the athletic set of Glorious Lover or Indian Horseman. Also probably needs gelding as he has mis-behaved twice now. 73
6. Requited – my pre-race comments about the jockey look justified by the RP comment – “tracked leaders against rail, stuck behind weakening rival from 2f out and lost place, no chance final furlong”. That said although he failed to get him settled early on it did look to my eyes as though he made very little effort to put him in the race and this may have been the plan. I may have over-rated this one as he looked a bit shrimp next to GL and IH, also not the scope of Boa Nova. Should however easily pick up a nursery now he has 3 ordinary runs under his belt. 73
7. Sense Of Belonging – Lightly made, lacking quality. Soft Northern Jessie. Remarkable he went off 2nd fav. 66
8. Deadly Force – Still looking fat as on debut. Gave this one 63 on debut but he may be a bit better than that. Will watch nto for signs that he is being prepared for nurseries.
9. Show The World – Same sort of shape as Sense Of Belonging. Not enough strength behind. Tubular and ordinary. Hard to see much scope for development 65
Will post up a couple of thoughts about today’s many 2yo races later.
11/07/18 11:20 AM
Bugger, the italics do not format on the blog. The post race review starts at the para beginning “Post race OR”
11/07/18 11:24 AM
Few to mull over for today,
5.20 Treacherous *
8.55 Pennsylvnia dutch
3.50 Noble peace
4.35 Dandy lad….. i know this is the second string but not a bad jock up, and stable are on fire with this type at the moment. The fact it instantly drifted on opening is not always a bad sign.
3.40 May symphonic
I will give a mention to Roman Warrior* 6.25 kempton……
* I think both these horses will drift from 8s T and 12s RW
11/07/18 11:31 AM
Meet up with Josh yesterday at Pontefract.
Very genuine guy.
I wish to advise readers of the free post is get over to the other page….. It’s where all the action is…..Great tips, great site and great people.
Change the way you think about your betting. You won’t regret it!
Good luck today with whatever you bet
11/07/18 11:42 AM
Virtually all the 2yo races today have multiple top rated and are unfathomable. One that may be worth a funbet is Feel The Noize Yarmouth 2.50. A Slade Power filly on debut for Rae Guest in what looks a very weak race. Although Mr Guest tends to save his debut winners for Leicester he always has them well prepared and professional, so as one of the pricier ones here she might compete for the win. Available at 10’s at present this one looks a fair e/w shot.
In what world other than the bookmakers a twice beaten Richard Hughes filly is value at 10/11 I don’t know.
11/07/18 11:58 AM
Today’s Weakest Event runners are:-
330 Mizen Mast
855 King of Rooks
Yesterday’s results: 1NR, 2W, 8L a loss of 5+pts
11/07/18 1:09 PM
I’ve just realised, now that Kalissi has won, that I forgot to post that the yard’s other three runners
410 Bal de Rio
445 Money For Luck
515 Moonlit Sands
may be involved in multiple bets today…if my suspicions are correct?
11/07/18 2:17 PM