Members Daily Post: 11/07/18 (complete)

Section 1 (comp)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Lingfield

3.00 – Light Of Air (micro dist) G3 6/1  UP

 

Catterick

4.10 – Stormin Tom (m class) 14 G3 5/1 2nd 

4.45 – 

Chaplin Bay (m TJC) H3 I3 8/1 UP

Ventura Crest (m TJC/Dist) 14  5/1 3rd 

 

Yarmouth

3.50 – 

Nonios (all hncps 5 yrs) ES+ H1 I3 5/1 S2 S3A# UP

Valcartier (m going) 14 H3 G3 10/3 S5 UP

5.25 – 

Daring Guest (m TJC) I1 9/1 S6 UP

Moi Aussie (m dist) I3 7/1 UP

 

Bath

6.40 – Hastenplace (all hncps + m age) 14  12/1 UP

8.10 – Secretfact (3yo+ 5 yrs, 3yo+, m dist/class move) ES+ G1 9/2 S3A  WON 9/2>5/4 

9.10 – 

Amberine (3yo+ 5 yrs, 3yo+, + m dist) ES+ I3 15/2 S3A WON 15/2>7/2 

Rio Santos (3yo+) 14 I3 G3 6/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/163,56p, -7.7) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +152)

TIPS

None, nothing I’m overly confident on on this page, at the prices… I stared at SecretFact but the price disappeared as I was doing so from 9/2. Maybe 4s in places is still fare but I just don’t have any confidence in that price range… he has ideal conditions today, returning to the CD where he is 3/4,3p, dropping in class, and Franny jumps on- I found it intriguing and for the life of me couldn’t work out why regular pilot Jimmy Quinn is at Yarmouth instead, given what he is riding. But, he rides the track well and in small fields/tactical races, it’s a positive booking for me. The horse is 4/7,4p when sent off 6/1 or shorter, and has won when returning within 7 days of his last start. Indeed Saunders is 9/22,13p + 26 in the last 2 years with those he returns within 7 days of their last start. Having watched the video LTO you wouldn’t be put off- he was the last jockey to move but ran into all sorts of traffic and then didn’t really bother at all once judged his chance had gone/the others had got the run on him. I’d expect a bold show here but it is a trappy enough contest and I’m close to admitting defeat on my judgement of horses in the 3/1-11/2 range. No doubt he’ll now bolt up. Were he 6s he’d have definitely been tipped, and maybe if 9/2 was steady/generally across the board, I may have done so also. He’s best price 3s now as I type. 

The other horse I looked at was Armandihan in the 8.25 Kempton- he was an eye-catcher LTO, having been a stats qualifier that I talked myself out of tipping, but as expected he ran well. He split two in-form/unexposed ones that day and the Fell horse he beat into 2nd has since come out and won again. That race was slowly run and he does seem to need a pace to aim at. As I was deliberating this one his price went from 14s to 8s or so. It is his first run at the track and his sire is only 4/74 here in recent years, although 22 have placed. Trainer and Jockey are 3/10,4p in handicaps at the track. What with the track unknown,(not sure this short enough straight will suit also) the fact he’s yet to win outside of maiden company, and his price disappearing, I have left him tipping wise. I did want 12s+ and maybe I’d have been tempted in to find out at those odds. But hopefully he runs well, and maybe a return here will revive Vincents Forever below also, but he’s looked tricky the last twice. 

I’d best now switch my attention to Newmarket/and ‘super Saturday’. GL with any bets. 

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Recent Tips(TEST,from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

4.10 Catt – Stormin Tom (2nd run) 2nd 

5.25 Yarm – Daring Guest (2nd run) UP

8.25 Kemp – Vincents Forever (2nd run) UP

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

NONE.

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

IMPORTANT

I have received an email about the original terms of service, and an annoyance at a perceived increase in posts on the morning of racing. Given this member has been here for 19 months or so, that criticism in line with what they signed up to, is valid.

The existing terms, which have been in place within the welcome email/link in the Key, for at least all of 2018 I think, are as follows

‘Please note that ALL Members Content is delivered via the blog within your members’ area. This is NOT an email service.

Members’ Posts are complete by 10am on the day of racing Monday-Friday, 11am at weekends. I endeavour to get the main content posted the evening before racing, usually by 6pm. You know a post is complete when you read ‘(complete)’ in the post title.’

I think this may differ from when the Members’ Club was set up back in 2016, where I promised (rather than endeavoured) the first part of Section 1 (what I deem as the core/non negotiable/non optional) would be posted by 5pm the day before, without fail, Monday-Friday, with Monday’s occasionally being an exception with content posted on Monday mornings.  I apologise for the lack of communication on that change and I suspect need to make the ‘terms of service’ element more professional, to ensure it’s more black and white.  

Those original terms I found too restrictive and didn’t allow for a reasonable work/life balance- effectively ensuring that I could never have a ‘day off’ after 10/11am, once a daily post was complete on the morning. There are many advantages to being self employed, not having 28 days or so statutory paid leave isn’t one of them 🙂 Since the inception of Members’ Club in 2016 I have never had a full day off, without any post of any sort, and as yet I have never failed to post in line with those terms above, wherever I have been in the world. When Section 1 is posted ‘late’ it has nearly always been by 8am on the day. While I don’t keep tabs, I’m sure 90%+ of the first iteration of a daily members post is posted the evening before, by 6pm.  Clearly I should have communicated that better so that you could make an informed choice as to your continued membership. With any luck, the 7 week trial for new members, allows ample time to decide whether the unique approach here fits in with their daily lives etc. 

I try and keep ‘morning posts on the day of racing’ for Section 1 as rare as possible, but there will always be exceptions and more so during the summer months. I do have to try and have a life outside of ‘section 1’ at times. If those terms above or your experience are unacceptable in your eyes, obviously I’m happy to cancel your membership with immediate effect, just email me and I’ll sort it. It would appear I need to be clearer/more professional in relation to ‘terms of service’ and will have a ponder on what to do in that regard. There’s always something that needs improving on, and that one can join my ‘daily’ tipping near the top of the list!

There’s no need for any public comments below in relation to the above, they can be made in private if needed, 

Josh 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. Moi Aussie Yarmouth Wednesday 17:25 1pt e/w Price available 7/1
    Tangramm Kempton Wednesday 20:25 1pt e/w Price available 12/1

  2. From Ken,

    Another decent day on Tuesday with 2 winners at 9/2 adv and 10/1 BOG giving us 9.5pts profit on the day. That takes us back into profit for June.

    Kempton on Wednesday. Qualifiers below:
    5.20 Sir Roderic 12/1
    5.55 Connemera Queen 7/1
    6.25 Delicate Kiss 7/1
    7.25 One Kiss 25/1 (EW)
    8.55 Fantasy Keeper 7/1

    1pt win each except where noted EW

    Good Luck

  3. Morning Folks,

    Few to mull over for today,

    KEMP
    5.20 Treacherous *
    8.55 Pennsylvnia dutch
    Bath
    6.40 Hastenplace
    YAR
    3.50 Noble peace
    LING
    4.35 Dandy lad….. i know this is the second string but not a bad jock up, and stable are on fire with this type at the moment. The fact it instantly drifted on opening is not always a bad sign.
    CATT
    3.40 May symphonic

    I will give a mention to Roman Warrior* 6.25 kempton……

    * I think both these horses will drift from 8s T and 12s RW

  4. hit send!

    Yeah…think they will drift so hold on to your bets with those two.

    Bumped into Josh and his buddy’s at Pontefract yesterday. Very genuine guy.
    A very nice 20/1 winner to boot.

    Good luck today

    1. Hi Jarrod, yep great to say hello at Ponte, and yep that winner helped ensure a decent punting day in the end! A good job his 66/1 shot ran a decent 3rd in the listed race as may not have had a closer look, but only really unexposed one in the race, and that price did seem silly once that taken into account. Hope the trip back to Brum wasn’t too arduous.
      GL today,
      Josh

      1. Hi Josh, no problems at all on the drive back. Sun was shining, traffic was kind and money in the pocket.

        Hope you had a nibble at CCC in the last at Brighton.

        Was a pleasure to meet yourself, Ben and Steve. Hopefully we’ll bump into each other again.

        Good luck today

    1. I don’t have an inside line to her runners sadly.. when at the races with her/when one of ours is running, she’ll happily discuss the chances of any others running that week etc but sadly not on speed dial!
      Having had a quick look, he just has it to prove on GF/turf, now 0/11 on the surface. Were today’s race over 16f at Ling on the AW, you’d be seriously interested I think. A big run wouldn’t surprise today though, he did run ok at Yarmouth but does want 16f it would seem. Headgear back on.
      Josh

  5. U.S. Racing Tips – Delaware race 5, 8.15 UK, Kelly’s Ford, circa 5/1. I will feedback ongoing performance of the tips each Monday.

    Good luck.

  6. Chris M Selections:
    16:45 Catterick – Ventura Crest (6/1 gen)
    17:25 Yarmouth – Moi Aussie (7/1 gen)
    18:25 Kempton – Sicario (5/1 gen)
    20:25 Kempton – Detachment (18/1 lads(going 4 places)) * Advised as 1pt EW bet

  7. Today’s Recent winners bets are:-
    340 Montague
    445 Extrasolar
    455 Arendelle
    640 Archimedes
    Both bets lost y’day.

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