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From Jarrod…
Evening folks,
Andy N quite rightly pointed out the source of the winners Davidson is having at the moment…. Like you’re style Andy. Davidson sends out TI AMO today in the 5.10 at Ayr. 9s was around on the exchanges early yesterday afternoon…That’s long gone. Again this is one from the same source!!!
Two run tomorrow that we have backed previously. They both ran on the same day at the same venue and they both appear again tomorrow at the same venue….Wolverhampton. Unfortunately you won’t see 20s this time round…..see 14th MAY post.
SILVER CHARACTER 5.55 and GRAVITY WAVE 5.20. I’ll put them up again.
I’m going to tip another Dascombe horse in the way of AMARONE RED in the 3.45.
Golf update – Our Irish Open selection, Russell Know, took the tournament down in a play off. The 1 point each way bet returned 32.5 points. Our tournament match up bet lost 7 points. Our U.S. tournament selection Joachin Niemann was tied for 6th place with several others at 28/1 at 1 point each way and we lost 0.25 points. So last week we made 25.75 points and our cumulative for 2018 is +4.5 points.
I started a thread in the members’ section y’day about horses facing their weakest opposition. Here are today’s candidates that I have identified through my form study:-
150 Master Sunrise
230 Vallarta
240 Words Not Deeds
305 Palavicini Run
415 Cupids Arrow
500 Morning Sequel
540 Pretty Bubbles
700 Shamaheart
740 Eltezaam
The above listing is not meant to be comprehensive, so if you have ideas of your own, or contrary views then please say. I’m seeking a wide input because this is a subjective area and I’ve been thinking that there must be away to exploit a concept such as this.
Y’days results were 4 losers (an 8/1 second) and two winners, a loss of 2.59 pts BSP to 1% stakes. All bets recorded at win stakes of 1.1%.
If this is a 2nd losing day, stakes will increase tomorrow to 1.2% per selection.
In terms of sample size, either time period or number of runners etc, what are you proposing going with in this exercise? What did you initially settle on re determining ‘weakest opposition’?
As yet I’ve no limit defined; more day’s like today will make me reconsider quickly but for the moment I’ll treat it as a one-off as, in hindsight, I think I got confused in making these choices. I’m using the grade of race as the ‘weakest’ categorisation.
Been trying to get to grips with the flat with better results than I thought myself capable of using a quite basic system. I wouldn’t encourage anyone diving in and some days there can be quite a few bets. sorry for abbreviated names but easy to see which they are. Odds are from earlier (around 9ish)
Ayr
3.35 – Soldiers @ 13/2
Ripon
8.00 – Moltazem @ 7/4 won’t be backing at them odds
8.30 – Daffy @ 11/2
Wind
7.10 – Motown @ 12
7.40 – Fanfair @ 11/2
8.40 – Bayshore @ 7/2
WAW
2.40 – Compton @ 10
3.45 – Medici @ 4
5.55 – Caramuru @ 25 poss e/w? but I only do win.
GL
Mike
Windsor Monday 9th July
Ratings
1. Swiper
2. Sense Of Belonging, Indian Horseman
3. Boa Nova, Deadly Force, Glorious Lover, Show The World, Superseded
4. Requited
Ratings Bet 1pt e/w Swiper
I have pictures of Swiper, Requited and Boa Nova and gave them OR equivalents of 73, 75 and 74 respectively. All within a margin of error.
I have not seen Glorious Lover but on debut at Newbury he finished within 1l of Almurr who I saw for the second time last week and gave 79. That was a good race and he looks the most likely winner on form.
On physique of those I have seen I prefer Requited but without wishing to run Keniry down he is 5% at Windsor overall and 7% on 2yos. Other than the apprentice he is by a margin the worst 2yo jock in the race. I expect that if Requited still looks good and is a tasty price I will still have a muggy e/w.
I don’t really think Swiper will win but having failed to back single top rated horses at 8’s twice recently I swore I would never make that mistake again. Also Ryan Moore is up so an e/w seems a good option.
Hugh
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From Jarrod…
Evening folks,
Andy N quite rightly pointed out the source of the winners Davidson is having at the moment…. Like you’re style Andy. Davidson sends out TI AMO today in the 5.10 at Ayr. 9s was around on the exchanges early yesterday afternoon…That’s long gone. Again this is one from the same source!!!
Two run tomorrow that we have backed previously. They both ran on the same day at the same venue and they both appear again tomorrow at the same venue….Wolverhampton. Unfortunately you won’t see 20s this time round…..see 14th MAY post.
SILVER CHARACTER 5.55 and GRAVITY WAVE 5.20. I’ll put them up again.
I’m going to tip another Dascombe horse in the way of AMARONE RED in the 3.45.
Good luck all
jarrodholmes68 09/07/18 8:37 AM
Golf update – Our Irish Open selection, Russell Know, took the tournament down in a play off. The 1 point each way bet returned 32.5 points. Our tournament match up bet lost 7 points. Our U.S. tournament selection Joachin Niemann was tied for 6th place with several others at 28/1 at 1 point each way and we lost 0.25 points. So last week we made 25.75 points and our cumulative for 2018 is +4.5 points.
martin colwell 09/07/18 8:56 AM
Martin well done with Knox
colin leafe 09/07/18 9:43 AM
Nice one mate
George 09/07/18 10:24 AM
I started a thread in the members’ section y’day about horses facing their weakest opposition. Here are today’s candidates that I have identified through my form study:-
150 Master Sunrise
230 Vallarta
240 Words Not Deeds
305 Palavicini Run
415 Cupids Arrow
500 Morning Sequel
540 Pretty Bubbles
700 Shamaheart
740 Eltezaam
The above listing is not meant to be comprehensive, so if you have ideas of your own, or contrary views then please say. I’m seeking a wide input because this is a subjective area and I’ve been thinking that there must be away to exploit a concept such as this.
chrisrees 09/07/18 11:06 AM
Y’days results were 4 losers (an 8/1 second) and two winners, a loss of 2.59 pts BSP to 1% stakes. All bets recorded at win stakes of 1.1%.
If this is a 2nd losing day, stakes will increase tomorrow to 1.2% per selection.
chrisrees 09/07/18 11:12 AM
In terms of sample size, either time period or number of runners etc, what are you proposing going with in this exercise? What did you initially settle on re determining ‘weakest opposition’?
martin colwell 09/07/18 1:33 PM
As yet I’ve no limit defined; more day’s like today will make me reconsider quickly but for the moment I’ll treat it as a one-off as, in hindsight, I think I got confused in making these choices. I’m using the grade of race as the ‘weakest’ categorisation.
chrisrees 10/07/18 11:09 AM
Been trying to get to grips with the flat with better results than I thought myself capable of using a quite basic system. I wouldn’t encourage anyone diving in and some days there can be quite a few bets. sorry for abbreviated names but easy to see which they are. Odds are from earlier (around 9ish)
Ayr
3.35 – Soldiers @ 13/2
Ripon
8.00 – Moltazem @ 7/4 won’t be backing at them odds
8.30 – Daffy @ 11/2
Wind
7.10 – Motown @ 12
7.40 – Fanfair @ 11/2
8.40 – Bayshore @ 7/2
WAW
2.40 – Compton @ 10
3.45 – Medici @ 4
5.55 – Caramuru @ 25 poss e/w? but I only do win.
GL
Mike
Titus 09/07/18 11:12 AM
Windsor Monday 9th July
Ratings
1. Swiper
2. Sense Of Belonging, Indian Horseman
3. Boa Nova, Deadly Force, Glorious Lover, Show The World, Superseded
4. Requited
Ratings Bet 1pt e/w Swiper
I have pictures of Swiper, Requited and Boa Nova and gave them OR equivalents of 73, 75 and 74 respectively. All within a margin of error.
I have not seen Glorious Lover but on debut at Newbury he finished within 1l of Almurr who I saw for the second time last week and gave 79. That was a good race and he looks the most likely winner on form.
On physique of those I have seen I prefer Requited but without wishing to run Keniry down he is 5% at Windsor overall and 7% on 2yos. Other than the apprentice he is by a margin the worst 2yo jock in the race. I expect that if Requited still looks good and is a tasty price I will still have a muggy e/w.
I don’t really think Swiper will win but having failed to back single top rated horses at 8’s twice recently I swore I would never make that mistake again. Also Ryan Moore is up so an e/w seems a good option.
Hugh
alpha2 09/07/18 12:45 PM
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