Members Daily Post: 08/07/18 (complete)

Section 1 , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

AYR
2.00 –
Corton Lad    (micros dist and season runs) ES+ I3 G3 9/4  S3A UP
Rock n Rolla    (micro dist) H1 I3 G1  4/1  S1 S4 
Home Before Dusk    (micro dist) H3 10/3 UP
2.30 – Cullin Hills    (micro dist) 16/1 UP
3.05 –
Alabanza    (micro dist) H3 I3 G3 2/1 S4 S5 WON 2/1>11/10
Foxy Rebel    (micros class and going)  w1 H3 5/1 UP
3.35 – War Department    (micro season runs) ES+ I3 9/1 S3A UP
4.40 – Forever a Lady    (micro season runs)  ES+ H3 G3 7/2 S3A S5 UP

5.10 – Lexington Place    (micros class and going) H3 I3 3/1 WON 3/1>5/4

JUMPS

M.RASEN
2.15 –
Mille Nautique    (micro class)  w2 H3 I3 11/4 UP
Four Mile Beach    (all Hc’s) 12/1 S2 UP
5.25 – King Muro    (micro class) 8/1 UP

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

NONE. 

I see a decent 9/1 winner for S6, which is always welcome. Magaluf was bouncing for the football, 4000 or so Brits in a square/big screens etc. It got a bit lively. It’s coming home! 🙂 Updating/completing this post at 8pm, before we all head out again. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Josh 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Irish Angles

4.45 Lim – Surf Instructor 

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

5.25 MR – Rockalzaro UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. USA Racing tips for Saturday evening – Arlington race 8 – Slim Shady 8/1; Belmont race 5 – Fallinginloveagain 16/1; Belmont race 7 – Shaft of Lite 7/2; Gulfstream race 6 – Paper Chaser 5/1.

    Fridays selection was only third.

    Good luck.

    1. The first selection was void in the UK but the other three were beaten. I am tracking results of this system and will report back weekly.

  2. I want to start a long term public trial of this theme for the flat.
    The qualifiers are recent winners that are racing against lower class opponents:-
    230 Natajack
    405 Ventura Knight
    440 Tommy G
    Results will be recorded to BSP but bets at BOG would be best for the shorter price ones like the first two.
    Tommy G is an EW price and the cautious could consider a place only bet (or a full stake to place and a half stake to win). I do not have a recommendation for this horse and will report a win bet for the on-going results but noting the place only outcome too.
    If you have any suggestions as to possible qualifiers pre-race I would be happy to discuss those.

    1. How do you classify ewer class opposition, a drop in grade from what the horse normally runs in? Would you take in to account why it was dropping in grade, i.e. loss of form or too high in the handicap?

      1. Recent winners, so no loss of form, for these selections. The type you indicate might appear amongst the second bunch.
        Nata W 0-70 LTO, here oppos are 0-60.
        VK won C2 lto, here C3.
        TG won 0-85 5/17 here; W0-80 23/6; here 0-75 lto form ignored as elsewhere.

        1. A similar type in the first at Rasen is The Trigger which does not quite hit my ideal profile but I’ve got matched at a value price for the win.

  3. A second idea that has been lurking, is that there must be some way to profit from horses that have their easiest chance in today’s flat race.
    Two obvious examples today:
    130 Fajjaj
    510 Lexington Place
    Others that seem also to have been found prize money chances are:-
    230 Lucky Red
    305 Let It Go Papa, Elapidae
    440 Forever A Lady S3A S5
    Again, your thoughts would be welcome about any others you think might fit the category. I’ll record these on a level stake basis, 1%, each day. Stakes will be raised by 0.1% after a losing day.

    1. So how do you determine consistently ‘easiest chance’? You would need to apply the principle consistently, as you do with all systems.

      Looking forward to how these ideas evolve.

      1. Determining consistently, is THE question, and the truth is we all have blind spots. That is why I’ve asked for input as I fear my efforts will always be partial and I don’t know of a short cut for days like yesterday. Nonetheless, I hope those that those I earmark might enable us to hit a winning seam and, collaboratively, we might build some ways to enhance the possibilities.

        1. I would say consistency is being able to run to the same mark in similar conditions. But it is subjective in part and you are right to ask for input. I try to keep systems simple enough so that you can spot them on a racecard quickly over time.

  4. no qualifiers today.

    i have had a small fun bet on Zeeyalater 2-25 Fairyhouse @22-1, apart from that all iv’e done is a small lucky 15 on 4 from section1
    Ayr 3.05 – Alabanza 2-1,4.40 – Forever a Lady 7-2, 5.10 – Lexington Place 3-1 and MR 2.15 – Mille Nautique 7-2

  5. Slow start to the month but than agian the same happened in May and June so just have to plug on:

    Marjus Quest Market Rasen 15:20 1pt e/w Price available 20/1

  6. Hi all,another beautiful day.

    Thought i would chip in on a quiet day. Sorry its a late post. Most know i dont tip below 10/1 so a couple of these have been backed already.

    Island song 2.30 Ayr. Stable in hot form, stable going well this year with others cast offs
    4r 2w 3p. Draw could be better.

    Market rasen 3.20. cracking trainer stats in this sphere 14r 7w 9p at this distance and class in last 5 years, 8r 4w 6p with jockey up . Managed to get 10s on this last night. My fear is this may be a better horse left handed. If not today keep him in your trackers for Plumpton or Newton Abbot!

    3.50 Moores road. This boys got some decent hurdles form. 12s last night.Its out to 20s which is much nicer. Dropping in distance, I think this trip will be more up his street.

    Limerick 3.40 Attribution. He was 7s last night. Stable going well. Think this the size of this field will play to his strength in a tight little race.

    1. Good call on Island Song. I spotted that too – interesting pattern – last three runners all switched from Gemma Anderson, having previously been with John Joseph Murphy. All won – 9/1, 16/1, 12/1. No massive market movement – I got 18s on Betfair.
      One runner tomorrow, Ti Amo 5.10 Ayr – switch from John Joseph Murphy direct.
      Time to lump on.

  7. House Of Cards Ayr Monday 14:30 1pt e/w Price available 12/1
    Shouranour Ripon Monday 19:00 1pt e/w Price available 10/1

  8. Evening folks,
    Andy N quite rightly pointed out the source of the winners Davidson is having at the moment…. Like you’re style Andy.
    Two run tomorrow that we have backed previously. They both ran on the same day at the same venue and they both appear again tomorrow at the same venue….Wolverhampton. Unfortunately you won’t see 20s this time round…..see 14th MAY post.
    SILVER CHARACTER 5.55 and GRAVITY WAVE 5.20. I’ll put them up again.
    I’m going to tip another Dascombe horse in the way of AMARONE RED in the 3.45.

    Good luck all

  9. No winners at Chelmsford on Saturday. With 2 NR’s -4pts for the day.

    AW Results for w/c 2 July:
    Staked 20pts, Profit -14pts, ROI -70.00% or -£70.00 to £5 stakes

    Qualifiers at Wolves on Monday:
    2.10 Champagne Bob 5/1 & Spin Top 9/1
    2.40 Danish Duke 12/1
    3.15 De Little Engine 4/1
    4.15 False ID 4/1
    4.50 Betjeman 12/1
    5.55 Silver Character 12/1

    1pt win each

    I’ll copy this to Monday’s post when it goes up.

    Good Luck

  10. mondays qualifiers,
    19:00 Ripon. Abushamah 10-1 generally , sky 4 places
    19:40 Windsor. Tripartite 22-1 generally, sky 4 places

    results update 47 selections 1 wins,12 places, staked 47 pts returns 26.25 pts down 20.75 pts.

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