Free Daily Post: 07/07/07 (complete)

nothing from me today

nothing from me today, I’m away on a stag do in Magaluf! I’ve just about survived day 1.

GL with any bets,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. Just a couple to watch out for at Wimbledon today, Watch as they both lose in straight sets now as I have put them up!

    DIATCHENKO TO BEAT OSTAPENKO @ 3-1

    HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

    Diatchenko 70.9% 42.3%

    Ostapenko 65.5% 40.8%

    Grass court win loss records read 17-10 Ostapenko against 18-11 Diatchenko so they are very similar in that regard, Ostapenko plays very aggressive and hits the ball tremendously hard but can be very wayward and does not have the consistency in her game at the minute. Diatchenko is a player of great potential who has had her career pretty much ruined by injuries over the last 3 years but she has worked her way back up into the top 100 from 350+ and with her results this week she should. Enter the top 50 and it is well deserved. Both players have been impressive here Ostapeno winning both her matches in straight sets and Diachenko coming through 5 matches so far with her three in qualifying which included a mighty impressive 6-2 6-2 win over Sofya Zhuk another promising Russian then the biggie when she overcame Maria Sharapova in three sets and more impressive was the way she backed that up beating Sofia Kenin and dropping just 4 games in the process. This match is quite a tough one to call as Ostapenko has the power to hit through her opponents if on a going day but I have been very impressed with how Diatchenko has stuck in games when behind and fought back, slight concern over her fitness but weighing it up she is a player playing at the top of her game and with sky high confidence so to be able to get 3-1 against a player who despite her successes is still relatively inexperienced is a no brainer for me.

    SASNOVICH TO BEAT GAVRILOVA @ 11-10

    HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

    SASNOVICH 60.8% 33.3%

    GAVRILOVA 69.2% 30.3%

    Gavrilova leads the head to head 1-0 winning on clay in Rome 2015, neither player would class grass as their favourite surface with their respective win loss records less than impressive Gavrilova 14-17 against Sasnovich 9-9 but so far in this tournament both has come through what looked fairly tough matches, but on closer inspection Gavrilova beat Stosur and Stosur has always been poor on grass and people still think of her as a top player but the simple fact is she is about to drop out of the world top 100 so that result was expected, Sasnovich beat Kvitova and was impressive with her variation and the Czech just imploded in the final set which she is always capable of doing but Sasnovich held it together well and her greater skill and variation should help her today against an opponent not particularly happy on the green stuff

    1. Good analysis. Today I like Bencic to beat Navarro in the Womends draw at 4/6. Grass court player v Clay court player.

      1. Agreed Martin, I backed Bencic too but did not put up here as odds on as in my opinion she will be a future Wimbledon champion as is so at ease on the grass and if not for injuries she would of kicked on in the last couple of seasons

  2. A bit of a marathon post today with five race reviews from Newbury on Thursday and Sandown on Friday. The odd group horse involved and plenty to look at in the photo files.

    If anyone is using these review photo files and finding them useful let me know. I don’t want to clutter up the thread with stuff no-one looks at.

    Newbury Reviews– Scintillating, Almurr – Sandown Reviews Well Done Fox, Arctic Sound, King Of Comedy
    Scintillating Newbury 6f Fillies Novice
    In my preview I suggested that Swift And Sure was likely to be beaten and in fact when one saw them in the paddock it was Scintillating first the rest nowhere. I probably got Sung Choi VBao and Sufficient the wrong way around in ratings from early season. In truth I don’t think there was anything else special on show here. Distint advantage to be drawn low to middle.
    Photo file: https://imgur.com/a/fkOReGb
    1. Scintillating – Looked a class above the rest, size, strength and depth. probably group class. 90
    2. Posted – next best on looks, just a size smaller all round 76
    3. Ascended – No picture, tall, and leggy. Lacking in class. 74
    4. Swift and Sure – small, light framed, needs to win soon or it will be nurseries of to high a rating. 72
    5. Sufficient – Maybe a bit better than I thought on debut but only moderate. 67
    6. Showu – Lower medium, ok front end but but tails off and a bit slopy ath e back. 66
    7. Kwela – Small but strongly made, disadvantaged by racing on stand side and maybe ok. 72
    8. Winter Gleam – No picture, ran well for a long way. 74
    9. Dancing Warrior – No picture, badly drawn, green, went right and lost ground, finished ok 69?
    10. Riverwing – Small typical Channon filly. 66
    11. Cherry Cola – Ordinary 63
    12. Layla’s Dream – Skimpily made, unlikely to progress. 59
    13. Sung Choi Bao – I seem to have got this one wrong, still looks ok and very fit but has a touch of the slows unless it is a nursery plot. If this is the case why a 4th run in a good maiden? 64
    14. Ptarmigan – Typically green and immature, not really much scope. 61
    15. Cool Kitty – Oddly, given her finishing position, this was my e/w selection. Lower medium, strongly made, only about 85% ready but a good shape. Ran well for 3.5f on what looked like slower ground. Disadvantaged by the draw and may be ok. 72
    16. Isla Skye – Fat and unready. 65
    Almurr Newbury 6f Colts Novice
    Almurr won this as expected but he is not of the highest quality lacking in size and scope to go beyond handicapping I think. I thought the unraced James Street and Ritchie Valens were the most likely dangers and so it turned out with James St only going down by a neck. The ones I had previously seen and rated finished in the ‘right’ order, other than London Rock who was under-rated on debut.
    Photo file: https://imgur.com/a/ZnGgDf2
    1. Almurr – Medium sized, strongly made but just lacking the class to rate much higher. 79
    2. James Street – Medium size, strongly made in a low slung way. Good Palmer preparation. Should improve from here 83
    3. Nefarious – Small and compact but got a good attitude and heart. 77
    4. Dispuptor – Tall narrow chestnut, no better than he showed here 70
    5. Ritchie Valens – the price here for a Hannon runner suggested he was not ready. Still a bit fat and downhill but a good athletic shape. Ran green early but stayed on well. Should collect a maiden.75
    6. London Rock – only rated him 55 on debut and although limited by size ansd scope he is better than that. Fully fit now 68
    7. The Paddocks – Gratified to see this one with the extra 6lbs run to around his rating of 75.
    8. Drumnadrochit – Not fit, stubby type. 68
    9. Ocean Rouge – 68
    10. Valentino Sunrise – 65
    11. Bullington Boy – Not that well made, surprised he cost 58k. 65

    Well Done Fox Sandown 5f Dragon Stake
    Well Done Fox was a standout in the pre-parade and under a no frills ride from Ryan Moore taking full advantage of his low draw he won it with the minimum of fuss. The ratings supplied the tricast here. The selection Barbill looked good but is 2 sizes smaller than Well Done Fox and never got close enough to challenge the three who jumped best.
    1. Well Done Fox – Top end of medium. Has developed well from debut, strong with a decent sprinter’s behind and one presumes that he was a slow learner.88
    2. Life Of Riley – Smaller strongly made but a bit clumsy at the back. Probably limited by size and shape. 81
    3. Chapelli – Typically for a Mark Johnston horse, a bigger model but tall and not that heavily made. Stuck on well from worst draw. Got her black type. 81
    4. Barbill – lost it at the start jumping maybe 2l slower than the principals. Looked to make a challenge 2 out but always held out wide. May be under-estimated nto. Powerful smaller sprinter. 78
    5. Collect Call – Lightly made and looked a bit out of place, presumably here for hoped for black type. 76
    6. Country Rose – Similar type to Collect Call, both these were smaller fillies and finished as they should in an only ok race. 75
    Arctic Sound Sandown 7f Novice D1
    Some decent types here in both divisions. Fox Tal stood out in the first as a quality animal along with Alrajaa. Line Of Duty less so but was very tenacious and the moral winner after having been held in for a long time. Both Fox Tal and Alrajaa should end up better than the rest.
    Photo file : https://imgur.com/a/TLfTNp9
    Arctic Sound – Upper medium rangy, previous experience and toughness enabled him to hang on along with a dynamic SDS. 82
    Line Of Duty – Lower medium compact, good attitude, fighter. 87
    Fox Tal – Tall, rangy, a bit tubular and had the longer solid tubular shape that Balding often has. Not hard fit like the first two and wobbly in the race with a questionable head carriage. By Sea The Stars so this was a promising first run. 90
    Alrajaa – Green and calling beforehand. Big and strong but daft. 89
    St Ouen – Smaller than the principals and a bit tubular. Ran ok. The sire Alhebayeb does not seem to deliver much speed and so far seems to be one to avoid. 74
    Canal Rocks – Well made but small and lacking the scope of most of these. Competent run but got mullered in the scrimmaging when already fading. 75
    Green Etoile – Plain and ordinary. Straight at the shoulder and looks to have ability limited by stride. Hurdler? 65
    King Of Comedy Sandown 7f Novice D2
    Photo file: https://imgur.com/a/M4l6cFq
    On paper this looked the better division but in reality there was not a lot between them and D2 was slower by .7 second.
    King Of Comedy – Big strong lad, calmer and readier than Alrajaa for Gosden in D1. Easy win. 93
    Persian Moon – previous experience was not enough here and fairly easily pushed aside by the winner. Upper medium, fit strong 84
    Topical – Lesser model than the first two lower to mid medium at best. 95% fit. Win a maiden. 75
    Phoenix Of Spain – Big lad, a bit plain. Trundled through an probably flattered by the fading of the first and second having been broken by trying to go with King Of Comedy. 74
    Venedegar – Close coupled chunky likeable type. Ok run for an Ed Dunlop debut 74
    Fox Premier – Tall well made chap. Green and unready beforehand and in race. 80
    Cromwell – Big plain job. 68
    Three Comets – Did not run owing to unsuitable ground. Looked like a really well made individual. Great athletic shape and certainly worth looking out for. Hard to rate without a run but might be a group horse. 90
    Hugh

  3. Hi Kevin

    Neil posted the link you need to click on everyday in yesterday’s post. If you follow that from about 10pm every night you should see the selections

  4. WTF………….ENGLAND……….SEMI FINAL!!!!!!!!!!!
    SUPERB GAME PLAN
    Just back from the Millenium Square Leeds. What a fuckin afternoon
    IT’S COMING HOME

    1. There you go getting carried away again lol!! They did play well today but Sweden were a pretty poor lot. Still all you can do is beat what is put in front of you. Remember even if (and it is a big if) you get to the final you will face France or Belgium. Now they are two top teams, one of which already beat England, remember.

      Not trying to rain on anyone’s parade but keep your feet on the ground which is what Gareth Southgate is doing remarkably well. Good Luck.

      1. Just to correct you there Ken, Belgium reserves defeated England reserves :). Congrats to England fully deserved, manager and team have conducted themselves with dignity, humility and class.

      2. yes Ken we may be getting carried away but are we the only ones? to paraphrase a “ditty” from the long distant past:
        We’re on the march with Gareth’s army
        We’re all in the Russian state
        And we’ve really shook em up
        We’re in the semi of the cup
        cos Gareth’s forged a really good football team!!
        Getting carried away when you reach a semi final is more realistic than England teams of the past and the 1978 Scotland debacle. sorry mate.

        1. Oh I know all about that!! I am old enough to remember Scotland reaching five consecutive World Cups and going out on goal difference in four. It’s now five consecutive World Cups since we last took part and my son has only ever seen them at one.

          It might interest you to know, despite my surname, that I was born in Scotland of English parents, so I have some allegiance to both (although my first choice is Scotland).

          I do genuinely hope you make it to the final and I think you will beat Croatia. Whether you can overcome France or Belgium is another matter. I don’t think you will be but I will be happy for you if you do.

          1. Chees Ken, I’m from Doncaster which is still part of Scotland(really!!) 1129 treaty of Durham, and my best mate is true Scottish and in 1974 Scotland had probably one of the best teams in the world and should have done much more in the finals they contested than they did! I had £5 on England @25/1 and traded out for a £3 profit!! oh me of little faith!!!

  5. A very good point Ken.

    Of the “functional and well organised” sides, we are probably doing the best. We also happen to have a Keeper playing largely at the top of his game, which all Tournament winners need.

    By losing to Belgium (intended or not) we have ensured facing 2 other functional teams and a Swedish side shorn of probably the second best player they ever had (after Herik Larsson) were very average, as are their sum parts, with respect to them.

    Having watched Germany make an art form of playing at best in an average manner and mainly poorly (save for a very few exceptions) and then peaking in the Final for the past 30-40 years, may be we have finally hit the magic formula.

    As a former Viler, it pains me to say this, but fair play to Southgate, he is getting optimum out of a group who don’t appear to have the Northern / London factions of the past; which clouded I always felt team morale, and with no ego’s like Terry; Neville; Beckham; Rooney around, he has fostered a togetherness we have not seen since the days of Bobby Robson.

    I’m sure England would rather play Russia than Croatia; as the Croats have some decent quality and a team ethic to match England (and I know of at least one RTP regular on Croatia at 33/1); and if we get to the Final; then the fun starts…

    (Off the pitch not on, as who will be our VIP’s as we have no diplomatic relations with them currently (allegedly) and our Royals surely can’t go after the 1917 Zsarist massacre, so my suggestion is Baddiel and Skinner, be great to see them flanking Putin don’t you think!!!

    1. Just finisheda gallon of coffee after apologising to every doorway in the house attempting the trip to the loo. I hear you guys but haven’t felt this good about footy since AC Milan in Istanbul whern I put a bet on at half time for pool to win.

    2. Ian if you have seen btsport premier league review from last season we had Gerrard, Ferdinand and Lampard all regretting the Liverpool v Man Utd v the rest psychology that went on in “the golden generation” period of English football. I feel what we have now is a very good man manager who has got some very good players working together and for each other in a common cause which is to be the best they can be. gl on wed boys!!

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