Free Daily Post: 06/07/18 (complete)

nothing from me..

I’m away for the weekend from early Friday morning and as such there won’t be anything from me until next week sometime. I’ll still put up the posts to allow comments etc.

Have a great weekend,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. Hi All

    I have only just read through the Geraint Williams stuff.
    I have tried setting up the tweety thing but am a 60yr old techphobic article.
    Is there anyone who could post his selections on here please ( I can use and love this site ).
    Many thanks if someone could help :0)

    GL with all bets

    1. If he is having success then why are his bets so low cost in terms of staking? Is it that he is cautious and does not want to run before he can walk? I know that I should have asked him this question. Just a thought in my mind.

      1. He seems to view it as a throwaway few quid, a bet that people can put on for a low cost with potentially a big payout. Surprising to me that he doesn’t back them as singles as well.

        1. Yes but why? Maybe it is me who is profit max focused, or try to be, and dont get that psychology of the fun bet when you could do more? We shall see how he gets on.

          1. I think sometimes you get people who are excellent at picking horses (or whatever) but maybe aren’t quite so good at the mechanics of betting on them, or vice versa.

            If you look at his picks, it’s not uncommon to see a selection in a 7 horse race for example, which probably isn’t the most profitable kind of ew bet. It’d probably make more sense (and be more sustainable) by betting the singles too, maybe putting a bit more on the doubles and so on. Like you say, he’s going to hit the winnings cap if they all come in so there’s a bit of stake money wasted.

            I think that’s part of the reason why it’s a fun bet to low stakes for him. Maybe he isn’t an “investment gambler” but just enjoys solving the puzzle of the races and the chance of a big win. Part of it is a bet at lottery odds, but he clearly knows what he’s doing with the selections too. People don’t need a big betting bank for it if they’re happy punting a fiver a day.

      2. You make a valid point Martin.

        I think i can give you a little insight into the reasons why and like a few of us, he’s now having accounts and bets restricted.

        Singles are the only way to bet sensibly if you trust in your methods. When compilation of your list runs into one or two horses on any given day that’s fine… Stick to your singles. When you have several selections… Doing singles can be costly…Lucky 15/31/63 bets then come into play. Stakes are reduced to make it affordable. Plus with the cap on returns why put on 20p ew lucky 63 when your returns are in excess of 2million from 10p ew…. That is chucking money away.

        Darren pointed out this new kid on the block to us last weekend. I didn’t follow his tips but was on the 66/1 shot anyway in my usual mug bet. Sound pick imo….

        I think this guy’s following now on twitter as been his downfall in some respects. Many are finding it difficult at getting multiple bets on and at the prices. His 365 account is really f**ked. I think he’s been quite silly in some respects.

        I’ve been doing this type of bet for years. I just go about my business in a totally different way.

        I made a bold prediction to Josh a few months ago about this very subject. Greaint Williams is virtually running a live tipping service without realising it. It’s reflecting in the odds being slashed across most boards.

        I’ll share with you what I shared with Josh a few months ago but away from the board if you wish. I think you’ll like it. Jarrod.holmes68@gmail.com

        1. OK thanks. Occasionally I have a go at at multiple bets. I go to a bookmakers and write out a slip and give it with my money to the uninterested cashier. It is the only way I can get them on. Today I have a £20 trixie on the Dascombe/Kingscote team at Haydock.
          They even paid me out happily when I had the £8K+ from the Nick M Yankee.

          #playthemugpunter.

          I am always happy to read the thoughts of this blogs users. I learn more by reading/listening than speaking.

          Yes advertising your wares on Twitter will attract those nasty bookies.

          1. Drop me an email and I’ll get back to you both….

            I’m not sharing this with everyone but it will make you think about about how to maximise your profit and minimise your staking for maximum returns. You’ll understand the sensitivity of it straight away.
            Email below…
            Regards

            Jarrod

            Jarrod.holmes68@gmail.com

        2. I suppose the winnings limit will come into play if he manages to his all the selections, but it’s more likely on a good day he’ll bag a couple of winners. While he’d only need a couple of pence to hit the winnings limit if they all win, you can see why he’d want 10-20p or whatever on the singles and doubles.

          You can definitely see why it’s a problem posting tips on Twitter. For a subscription service to get several hundred followers backing their tips is going to take years of hard work and proven profits. A couple of big wins and retweets from the right people, and a twitter tipster could do that in a few weeks.

  2. Football World Cup Stats
    World Cup Quarter-Finals since 1986

    Year 1st quarter-final 2nd quarter-final 3rd quarter-final 4th quarter-final
    2014 2-1 1-0 0-0, ET, pens 1-0
    2010 1-1, ET, pens 2-1 4-0 1-0
    2006 1-1, ET, pens 3-0 0-0, ET, pens 1-0
    2002 1-0 0-0, ET, pens 2-1 1-0
    1998 3-2 2-1 0-0, ET, pens 3 -0
    1994 2-2, ET, pens 3-2 2-1 2-1
    1990 0-0, ET, pens 1-0 1-0 3-2, ET
    1986 2-1 1-1, ET, pens 1-1, ET, pens 0-0, ET,p

    Notice the pattern of 1 GOAL margins
    1st and 3rd game ET Pens 4 from 8
    4th game ending 1-0 for last 4 WC’s
    All games bar 1 game that went to ET went to Pen.

    Hope it is of some help.

    Mike

  3. Last night at Newbury I put up Almurr who won with the dangers nominated as James Street (neck 2nd @ 14s and Ritchie Valens (5th).

    In the fillies novice I did not put one up as I couldn’t see it on paper but backed Scintillating on course (won 4/1) a filly to follow. Lovely type amongst a lot of ordinary ones.

    I also top rated Dream Vision at 8’s at Yarmouth but foolishly did not have a win bet recommendation instead opting for a rf with the odds on favourite. Will I ever learn? Taking on Jonah Jones at Haydock was an obvious mistake as soon as one saw him upsides Hesslewood. Lovely big strong cold should make a listed quality at least.

    Today

    Sandown 6th July – Dragon Stakes and two 7f 2yo races
    Sandown 5f Listed Dragon Stakes 1.50
    Ratings
    1. Life Of Riley, Well Done Fox, Chapelli
    2. Barbill, Jungle Inthebungle, Collect Call
    3. Country Rose
    1pt win Barbill (comments below) May well back another as well when I’ve seen them.
    Almost impossible to sort out when the draw is so important and Barbill is in 5 which is not ideal however when one looks at his form he won easily fto, was second to Irish Rover who I rated 83 at Newbury and third was Marie’s Diamond and then when I saw him at Ascot in The Coventry was drawn on the wrong side and never got into it. He is back down to 5f here which asks a question, but I have taken 12’s on Bf.

    Well Done Fox – disappointing that it did not stay on closer to the winning three although not given a hard time. Interesting to see if it was because he is a bit slow or if the Hannon 2yos are not as forward as hoped. If he goes to Goodwood or similar next then we will know he was just unready if he drops to Bath then it is because he is not much use and they want a quick win. I lean toward him being a good one. 78
    Barbill – I really liked Barbill, very powerful build in a small frame. I think he has a bit of potential to go on from this. 77
    Sandown 2.25 7f novice D1
    Ratings
    1. Alrajaa, Arctic Sound, Green Etoile
    2. Line Of Duty Numero Uno,
    3. Fox Tal, St Ouen
    No Bet without seeing them
    Sandown 3pm 7f Novice D2
    Ratings
    1. King Of Comedy, Topical,
    2. Fox Premier, Humdinger, Persian Moon, Three Comets
    3. Phoenix Of Spain, Venedegar
    Same again, this looks a better division and hopefully there will be a standout.
    Hugh

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