Members Daily Post: 05/07/18 (Tipsx1/complete)

*

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/162,55p, -6.7) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +152)

NOTES

8.10 Epsom – Genetics – 1 point win 7/2 (gen) (08.55) 2nd (no excuse, pace went to plan, would maybe have liked Probert to make more use of him earlier, but beaten by the class dropper/better horse I think, well on top at end. Right to take on fav, but with wrong one. 

This one looks most interesting of any strategy qualifiers by far to my dodgy eyes with plenty looking up against it on paper, but time will tell whether that’s a correct assessment or not. In this 5 runner race I think 7/2 still looks generous here and his price should be much closer to the favourite… he won in impressive enough style LTO, having watched it back, and it appears the switch to front running tactics rejuvenated him. He is the only pace angle in here, if every horse sticks to their recent running styles, and he should be able to get away on the front end as they swing for home. He drops back 2f here which asked a question but you’d hope Probert would be aggressive on him as he should just keep going. Brighton has some similarities to here, hurtling down hill, twisting and turning, and that win was on firm so the ground should be just fine. He won last time out and the third that day has since come out and won. Balding is in great form and is 6/23,11p in 10f Epsom handicaps in the last 5 years, 2/9,6p when Probert is on. The jockey is riding at the top of his game also, 9/44,20p the last 14 days and he rides this track well. In theory he should be the one they have to catch… I think the fav is worth taking on. He was keen enough the last day in a 3 runner race and was readily dismissed by the Johnston horse, having come upsides and looking to have every chance. It could be he comes on for the run but he steps up 2f now and he’ll have to settle off a moderate pace again and now prove that he stays. Of course he could relish it and prove to have stacks in hand, now Crowley jumps back on. He also has to prove he will handle the track. Tregoning is 0/12 in the last 2 years with horses moving in trip by 20% or more from last run, up or down. Maybe this one improves those figures but at Evens I think he may be worth taking on. This one ticks every box really and i’d be disappointed if he didn’t go close here.

That will be all for notes horses today. Nothing else leapt of the page at me but with any luck I may be wrong about some of the strategy qualifiers.

*

Recent Tips(TEST,from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 4/41,14p, -2.5) 

5.00 Hayd- Mushariff (1st run) UP

*

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.10 Perth- Jovial Joey 6/1 UP

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Glorious Goodwood 2018

Big Festival Trainer/Jockey Notes: READ HERE>>>

(includes some notes on the approach to the week and Galway. I want to have a good go at the week with the Festival bank) 

*

A great week for the ‘where to begin portfolio’ (+26 or so) 

Results Update 

Results Update   (25^thJune- 1^st July 2018) 

Summary below, links in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies will be updated asap

Summary

TOTAL (strategies) (Section 1):

• JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (0/3,0p, -3) S2A (subset of S2… 0/1,0p,-1) S3 (0/2,1p, -2) S3A (3/6,3p,+11.5) S3A# (subset S3A.. 1/1,1p,+2.5) S4 (/) S5 (1/6,1p,+6)
• FLAT 2018: S1 (1/4,1p,+4) S2 (4/12,5p, +9.33) S3A (1/12,5p,-10.77) S3A# (subset S3A.. 1/6,4p, -4.77)  S4 (4/14,7p, +13.33) S5 (1/7,3p,-1)S6 (2/6,2p, +10, +4.4 BFSP)

TEST ZONE

• Jumps angles: 0/5,4p, -5
• Flat: (Fell) 2/5,2p, +27

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago w1 / w2)

• Jumps: 3/9,5p, +6.33 (w1 : 3/4,3p,+11.33, w2 0/5,2p, -5)
• Flat: 3/11,5p, -1.77 (w1 2/6,3p, -0.77, w2 1/5,2p, -1)
• Section 1, WON LTO
  • Week: 5/10,6p, +10.56
  • Total 2018: 123 bets / 31 wins / 45 w|p / +31.36

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): /

S3A# – S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat)

• week: 2/7,5p, -2.27
• Total: 107 bets / 31 wins / 50 w|p / +36.48 (early/bog)

**

Where To Begin? ‘Advised’ Portfolio Ideas

Flat S1 + S4 + S6 = 8/22,11p, +27.3 (+21.7 if S6 BFSP)

Jumps S2A = 0/1,0p, -1

Total 2018 (1 point win):  276 bets / 46 wins / 89 w|p / +112.9 (early/bog) / +150.8 (BFSP)

**

The ‘where to begin’ ideas, as a portfolio after 276 bets are operating at a 16% win SR.

That does mean iffy losing runs every now and then… 43 max (approx.) every 1000 bets, and everything in between, multiple times. That win SR is down to the ‘bigger odds’ strategies that are Flat S6 and Jumps S2A, which are not for the faint hearted, if following systematically. As with everything I do it’s about offering options/ideas to suit your own betting style/tolerance etc. 

For those who may prefer bigger win SR when following strategies/systems, and less stress in terms of shorter losing runs etc…

Well, Flat S1 + S4 are, combined in 2018… 105 bets / 31 wins / 48 w|p / +54.9… a 29% SR 

We shall see if that continues around that level, but such a SR means maximum losing run per 1000 bets of approx. 19.

S3A# is starting to look decent also, as it hits 100 bets. Logically, that should keep ticking over.

• Total (Jumps/Flat): 107 bets / 31 wins / 50 w|p / +36.48 (early/bog)

And the ‘in form horse’, Section 1 quals that WON (w1) last time out are ticking along…

• Total 2018: 123 bets / 31 wins / 45 w|p / +31.36

Many of you may just use the qualifiers/strategies as ‘starting points’/shortlists also, so hopefully that info is useful in that endeavour.