Members Daily Post: 05/07/18 (Tipsx1/complete)

Tips x1, Section 1 (x3), test

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Haydock

4.00-  Red Force One (all hncps + TJC) 14 ES+ G3 6/1 S3A 3rd 

 

Yarmouth

3.50 – King Of Dreams (all hncps 5 yrs, all hncps) ES+ H3 I3 15/2 S3A# UP

4.20 – Late Change (all hncps 5 yrs, all hncps) ES+ 9/1 S3A  3rd 20/1

5.20 –

Rubensian (all hncps 5 yrs, all hncps) ES+ I1 7/1 S3A S6  UP

Bartholomew J (m class) w2 w1 H3 G1 13/8 S2  WON 13/8 

Max Liebermann (m class) w2 I3 G3 5/1 UP

 

Newbury

5.40 – On A Roll (m runs) H3 G3 2/1 S5 UP

 

Epsom

7.35 – Berkshire Boy (all hncps) I1 11/1 S6 

8.10 – Genetics (all hncps + m dist) w1 H3 I3 G3 7/2 S4 S5 2nd 

 

JUMPS

Perth

2.40 –

Petite Ganache (nov hncps) I1 5/1 Fell Last (going on to win) 

Charin Cross (nov hncps) 20/1 S2A  PU

3.10 – Nefyn Bay (hncp c) 14 H3 I3 4/1  WON 9/2 

3.40 – Bahrikate (m TJC) H3 I1 4/1 UP 

4.10 – Kilbree Kid (hncp c) w2 H3 I3 9/2 2nd 

4.40 – Green Zone (hncp h) I1 8/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/162,55p, -6.7) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +152)

NOTES

8.10 Epsom – Genetics – 1 point win 7/2 (gen) (08.55) 2nd (no excuse, pace went to plan, would maybe have liked Probert to make more use of him earlier, but beaten by the class dropper/better horse I think, well on top at end. Right to take on fav, but with wrong one. 

This one looks most interesting of any strategy qualifiers by far to my dodgy eyes with plenty looking up against it on paper, but time will tell whether that’s a correct assessment or not. In this 5 runner race I think 7/2 still looks generous here and his price should be much closer to the favourite… he won in impressive enough style LTO, having watched it back, and it appears the switch to front running tactics rejuvenated him. He is the only pace angle in here, if every horse sticks to their recent running styles, and he should be able to get away on the front end as they swing for home. He drops back 2f here which asked a question but you’d hope Probert would be aggressive on him as he should just keep going. Brighton has some similarities to here, hurtling down hill, twisting and turning, and that win was on firm so the ground should be just fine. He won last time out and the third that day has since come out and won. Balding is in great form and is 6/23,11p in 10f Epsom handicaps in the last 5 years, 2/9,6p when Probert is on. The jockey is riding at the top of his game also, 9/44,20p the last 14 days and he rides this track well. In theory he should be the one they have to catch… I think the fav is worth taking on. He was keen enough the last day in a 3 runner race and was readily dismissed by the Johnston horse, having come upsides and looking to have every chance. It could be he comes on for the run but he steps up 2f now and he’ll have to settle off a moderate pace again and now prove that he stays. Of course he could relish it and prove to have stacks in hand, now Crowley jumps back on. He also has to prove he will handle the track. Tregoning is 0/12 in the last 2 years with horses moving in trip by 20% or more from last run, up or down. Maybe this one improves those figures but at Evens I think he may be worth taking on. This one ticks every box really and i’d be disappointed if he didn’t go close here.

That will be all for notes horses today. Nothing else leapt of the page at me but with any luck I may be wrong about some of the strategy qualifiers.

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Recent Tips(TEST,from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 4/41,14p, -2.5) 

5.00 Hayd- Mushariff (1st run) UP

 

 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.10 Perth- Jovial Joey 6/1 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Glorious Goodwood 2018

Big Festival Trainer/Jockey Notes: READ HERE>>>

(includes some notes on the approach to the week and Galway. I want to have a good go at the week with the Festival bank) 

 

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A great week for the ‘where to begin portfolio’ (+26 or so) 

Results Update 

Results Update   (25thJune- 1st July 2018) 

Summary below, links in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies will be updated asap

Summary

TOTAL (strategies) (Section 1):

  • JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (0/3,0p, -3) S2A (subset of S2… 0/1,0p,-1) S3 (0/2,1p, -2) S3A (3/6,3p,+11.5) S3A# (subset S3A.. 1/1,1p,+2.5) S4 (/) S5 (1/6,1p,+6)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (1/4,1p,+4) S2 (4/12,5p, +9.33) S3A (1/12,5p,-10.77) S3A# (subset S3A.. 1/6,4p, -4.77)  S4 (4/14,7p, +13.33) S5 (1/7,3p,-1)S6 (2/6,2p, +10, +4.4 BFSP)

TEST ZONE

  • Jumps angles: 0/5,4p, -5
  • Flat: (Fell) 2/5,2p, +27

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago w1 / w2)

  • Jumps: 3/9,5p, +6.33 (w1 : 3/4,3p,+11.33, w2 0/5,2p, -5)
  • Flat: 3/11,5p, -1.77 (w1 2/6,3p, -0.77, w2 1/5,2p, -1)
  • Section 1, WON LTO
    • Week: 5/10,6p, +10.56
    • Total 2018: 123 bets / 31 wins / 45 w|p / +31.36

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): /

S3A# – S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat)

  • week: 2/7,5p, -2.27
  • Total: 107 bets / 31 wins / 50 w|p / +36.48 (early/bog)

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Where To Begin? ‘Advised’ Portfolio Ideas

Flat S1 + S4 + S6 = 8/22,11p, +27.3 (+21.7 if S6 BFSP)

Jumps S2A = 0/1,0p, -1

Total 2018 (1 point win):  276 bets / 46 wins / 89 w|p / +112.9 (early/bog) / +150.8 (BFSP)

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The ‘where to begin’ ideas, as a portfolio after 276 bets are operating at a 16% win SR.

That does mean iffy losing runs every now and then… 43 max (approx.) every 1000 bets, and everything in between, multiple times. That win SR is down to the ‘bigger odds’ strategies that are Flat S6 and Jumps S2A, which are not for the faint hearted, if following systematically. As with everything I do it’s about offering options/ideas to suit your own betting style/tolerance etc. 

For those who may prefer bigger win SR when following strategies/systems, and less stress in terms of shorter losing runs etc…

Well, Flat S1 + S4 are, combined in 2018… 105 bets / 31 wins / 48 w|p / +54.9… a 29% SR 

We shall see if that continues around that level, but such a SR means maximum losing run per 1000 bets of approx. 19.

S3A# is starting to look decent also, as it hits 100 bets. Logically, that should keep ticking over.

  • Total (Jumps/Flat): 107 bets / 31 wins / 50 w|p / +36.48 (early/bog)

And the ‘in form horse’, Section 1 quals that WON (w1) last time out are ticking along…

  • Total 2018: 123 bets / 31 wins / 45 w|p / +31.36

 

Many of you may just use the qualifiers/strategies as ‘starting points’/shortlists also, so hopefully that info is useful in that endeavour.  

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. 2 necks away from a win and a place so not far away from another decent day. Two for tomorrow:

    Gold Chain Perth Thursday 16:40 1pt e/w-Price available 14/1
    Punkawallah Newbury Thursday 20:25 1pt e/w-Price available 10/1-Just a quick write up. Is 2/3 in class 5s, 2/4 left handed and has a 1st and a 4th (not beaten far in a better class) on fast ground. PJ has won his last four rides for Dascombe. Gets a plum draw and should be able to get an easy lead since the other prominent runner has a poor draw to overcome. Last time around wasn’t disgraced in a class 4 and the winner has followed up. They put the first time visor on and the last time they change headgear he won. Looked overpriced. Trainer is 2/2 at the track this season.

  2. results update 41 selections 1 wins,9 places, staked 41 pts returns 19.75 pts down 21.25 pts.
    todays qualifiers,
    16:00 Haydock. Kirkham 12-1
    20:25 Newbury. Punkawallah 9-1

  3. 1 from 3 for me and a small profit yesterday and last night I backed these for today (must get into a habit of posting them here earlier!)

    3.40 Perth : Mitcd @ 2/1 BOG
    5.00 Haydock : Dapper Man @ 2/1 BOG
    7.15 Newbury : Celestial Force @ 15/8 BOG
    7.50 Newbury : Rose Berry @ 11/4 BOG

  4. Running total +10.5 points

    Haydock 4.00 – Sosian 1pt ew @ 11/1

    Newbury 7.50 – Madame Bounty 0.5pts ew @ 16/1

  5. Chris M Selections:
    15:50 Yarmouth – King of Dreams (15/2 gen)
    18:35 Bellewstown – High Monet (3/1 gen)
    20:10 Epsom – Hollywood Road (9/2 gen)
    20:15 Bellewstown – Lady Godiva (10/3 gen)
    21:00 Tipperary – Achiever (15/2 gen)

    Good luck with your bets today

  6. COLINS BETS
    2.20 Yarmouth Terrie Rules
    4.20 Yarmouth Wild Acclaim
    4.00 Haydock Golden guest

    Agony yesterday with Zain Star losing by a nose having been backed from 12/1 to 6/1

  7. Hi, anyone interested in U.S.racing? I have formed an alliance with someone on the other side of the pond and their selections seem to be going well so far. I will post them if anyone is interested but do not want to post if not.

    1. Hi Martin

      I’m always open to expanding my profit avenues particularly at a market I am in no way involved in so would be interested although do you have information how well they have done in the past 6-12 months? Also in relation to number of picks/odds. Might be a case of being an interested observer for 3 months if not before I join in.

    2. Hi Martin. I don’t really know anything about U.S. racing,but would be interested to see,particularly if it should prove profitable.

    3. Yes, I would like to see some past results and study SR and winning odds, Martin with a view to staking these.

      1. OK, I have been encouraging the guy to start tipping based upon his knowledge of U.S. Racing and have been working with him in methodologies and staking etc and so not much to go on at present. I have started to track his performance and he is +17 points over 8 days. I will speak to him re past performance but I am pretty sure he does not have records that can be verified.

        Anyway I will post selections up and will track and report back and in the mean time you can do as you wish.

        Good luck.

      1. U.S. Tip – Race 6 at Ellis Park – Uno Mas Modelo, circa 8/1. I could not find this track on Oddschecker or on Betfair but you guys may have more luck?

        1. Can find an Ellis Park card with any of the bookmakers I access. This horse is ridden by A. Beschizza, I guess he must be the same jockey as rode in the UK in recent years

  8. I’m on:
    King Oswald 33/1 – 3:50 Yarmouth
    Dutch Canyon 20/1 – 2:40 Perth
    – 14.5p So fare
    Hope you all will have good day.

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