Members Daily Post: 04/07/18 (Tipsx1/upd3)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Musselburgh

3.00 – Breakwater Bay (micro class) H3 15/8 UP

3.30 – Tommy G (m runs) w1 14 H1 I1 G3 11/2 S1 S2 S4  UP

4.00 – Zeshov (all hncps + m going) ES+ I3 G3 5/1 S3A# UP

4.30 –

Tewafeedj (all hncps) 11/2 UP

Highway Robber (m age) I3 G3 10/1  UP

5.00 – Eternalist (m runs) 14 H3 I3 G3  2/1 S4 S5 

 

Thirsk

3.20 – Suitcase N taxi (m dist + class) w2 H3 7/2  WON 7/2>5/2 

3.50 –

Red Pike (m dist) 14 I1 14/1 S6  UP

Muscika (m age) w2 H1 G3 3/1 S2  UP

4.50 – Indian Pursuit (m class) 12/1

 

Bath

6.40 – Showmethewayavrilo (3yo+ hncp + m dist) ES+ I3 10/1 S3A 

8.10 –

Gemini (all hncps) H3 3/1 

Red Miracle (3yo+ hncps + m age/runs) I3 G1 17/2 S2 S6 

8.40 – Groveman (all hncps) H1 I1 G3 10/11 S1 S2 S4 

9.10 – Midas Maggie (all hncps) G1 7/1 S6 

 

JUMPS

Worcester

2.40 –

Strongly Suggested (hncp c) 14,30  8/1 UP

Kinari (hncp c + m runs)  14,30 16/1 

Bronco Billy (hncp c) 14,30  25/1 

4.40 –

Tir Dubh (hncp h) H3 I3 11/1 S2 S5 

Phoenix Rock (m class) 14,30  5/1 

Three Colours Red (hncp h) H1 5/2 

5.10- Double Miss (hncp h) 16/1 S2A

5.40 –

Innoko (hncp h) H3 8/1 

Gloi (hncp h) 14/1 S2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/162,55p, -6.7) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +152)

NOTES

4.30 Muss – Highway Robber – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP 8/1,. poor. Not much to say about that, the held him up off a slow pace, no idea why they didn’t go forward, and be more handy, but the way he’s ran there suggests it wouldn’t have made any difference really. 

that will be all for tips, 09.18…

I was a bit on the fence with this one but having decided the race feels fairly open and that the market principals have plenty of questions to answer also, i wanted to have a go at 10s. This is his 3rd run back after a break and Evans (who is 1/2 on him) jumps back on, having ridden him two starts ago from the front, needing the run by all accounts. That was his last turf start and the handicapper has dropped him 6lb for that. I can’t work that out, given how some horses take an age to drop a few pounds. But, connections should be happy, especially given that he’s 2/2 in turf handicaps when rated under 50. He ran ok LTO at Newcastle (his next start after that Hamilton return), pulling too much in a slowly run race, but he did make a move up the straight and it was a run of promise I thought. IF he returned to the form of his made-all Hamilton win over 11f last June, he’d be in there pitching come the death. Based on that run I think he should get this trip at this track in a small field. GF is an unknown to a point but given he won on good, and connections run him here, they must think he can run his race on it. Again, the price was just big enough for me. I am hoping that Evans goes forward on him now, and tries to make-all. He looks the sort who may only settle in front.  The Ryan horse may be up there for a time but I can’t have him at the prices based on his run LTO, and Falcons Fire can lead- but he dictated a steady pace the last day and still couldn’t win- and he is usually happy to track pace if something goes on. The fav is the main danger if he stays – a bit of an unknown and this is much calmer waters than that Donny C5 race over this trip- but, he does still have to prove it. The selection showed a great winning attitude when winning that Hamilton race and with any luck he can get to the front and keep battling- if he travels well but fails to pick up, i’ll get the ground excuse ready and curse connections for running him on it 🙂 Storey hasn’t had a winner for an age but he doesn’t have the biggest of strings and plenty of his have seemingly had little chance according to the market. Fingers crossed this one can bring him a welcome winner.

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Recent Tips(TEST,from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 4/39,14p, -0.5) 

5.50 Kemp – Major Valentine (tipped before last run when withdran/NR i think)

4.40 Worc – Phoenix Rock (2nd run)

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.10 Worc – Angel Moon 17/2

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.10 Worc- Auenwirbel 7/2

2.40 Worc – Blagapar 11/4

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Glorious Goodwood 2018

Big Festival Trainer/Jockey Notes: READ HERE>>>

(includes some notes on the approach to the week and Galway. I want to have a good go at the week with the Festival bank) 

 

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A great week for the ‘where to begin portfolio’ (+26 or so) 

Results Update 

Results Update   (25thJune- 1st July 2018) 

Summary below, links in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies will be updated asap

Summary

TOTAL (strategies) (Section 1):

  • JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (0/3,0p, -3) S2A (subset of S2… 0/1,0p,-1) S3 (0/2,1p, -2) S3A (3/6,3p,+11.5) S3A# (subset S3A.. 1/1,1p,+2.5) S4 (/) S5 (1/6,1p,+6)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (1/4,1p,+4) S2 (4/12,5p, +9.33) S3A (1/12,5p,-10.77) S3A# (subset S3A.. 1/6,4p, -4.77)  S4 (4/14,7p, +13.33) S5 (1/7,3p,-1)S6 (2/6,2p, +10, +4.4 BFSP)

TEST ZONE

  • Jumps angles: 0/5,4p, -5
  • Flat: (Fell) 2/5,2p, +27

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago w1 / w2)

  • Jumps: 3/9,5p, +6.33 (w1 : 3/4,3p,+11.33, w2 0/5,2p, -5)
  • Flat: 3/11,5p, -1.77 (w1 2/6,3p, -0.77, w2 1/5,2p, -1)
  • Section 1, WON LTO
    • Week: 5/10,6p, +10.56
    • Total 2018: 123 bets / 31 wins / 45 w|p / +31.36

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): /

S3A# – S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat)

  • week: 2/7,5p, -2.27
  • Total: 107 bets / 31 wins / 50 w|p / +36.48 (early/bog)

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Where To Begin? ‘Advised’ Portfolio Ideas

Flat S1 + S4 + S6 = 8/22,11p, +27.3 (+21.7 if S6 BFSP)

Jumps S2A = 0/1,0p, -1

Total 2018 (1 point win):  276 bets / 46 wins / 89 w|p / +112.9 (early/bog) / +150.8 (BFSP)

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The ‘where to begin’ ideas, as a portfolio after 276 bets are operating at a 16% win SR.

That does mean iffy losing runs every now and then… 43 max (approx.) every 1000 bets, and everything in between, multiple times. That win SR is down to the ‘bigger odds’ strategies that are Flat S6 and Jumps S2A, which are not for the faint hearted, if following systematically. As with everything I do it’s about offering options/ideas to suit your own betting style/tolerance etc. 

For those who may prefer bigger win SR when following strategies/systems, and less stress in terms of shorter losing runs etc…

Well, Flat S1 + S4 are, combined in 2018… 105 bets / 31 wins / 48 w|p / +54.9… a 29% SR 

We shall see if that continues around that level, but such a SR means maximum losing run per 1000 bets of approx. 19.

S3A# is starting to look decent also, as it hits 100 bets. Logically, that should keep ticking over.

  • Total (Jumps/Flat): 107 bets / 31 wins / 50 w|p / +36.48 (early/bog)

And the ‘in form horse’, Section 1 quals that WON (w1) last time out are ticking along…

  • Total 2018: 123 bets / 31 wins / 45 w|p / +31.36

 

Many of you may just use the qualifiers/strategies as ‘starting points’/shortlists also, so hopefully that info is useful in that endeavour.  

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

30 Comments

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  • Congratulations and thanks to Nick, spot on again with Ventura Knight, I got 12s last night (small R4). Hopefully some members were on Vosnee Romanee this evening , SP 6/4 but available at 7/2 yesterday, which makes it 4/8 for Ben Aitken’s Summer Stunners since 1st June. A bit short for some RTP aficianados perhaps, but if Josh is tipping 7/2 shots, maybe not !

    johnnyb 03/07/18 8:18 PM Reply


    • Haha. That made me smile. In fairness 7/2 about 6/4 is bloody good value. Sadly my ability at that end of market still needs some work! Awful
      . On we go.

      Josh 03/07/18 10:19 PM Reply


  • No winners at Wolves on Monday so -5pts.

    Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    6.20 Sepahi 9/1
    7.20 Al Hamdany 8/1
    7.50 Percy’s Word 9/1
    8.20 Family Fortunes 12/1 & Kingston Kurrajong 5/1
    9.20 Miracle Works 5/1 & Kath’s Lustre 10/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    PS. Well done to England. As a Scot we are almost programmed to want England to lose. Not me. If those dirty, diving, feigning injury scum had won tonight that would have been a severe injustice.

    Ken McKenzie 03/07/18 10:12 PM Reply


  • Come on England. We need to score some goals from open play though to go any further.

    Tips – 3.30 MUS Our Charlie Brown, 2 points at 6/1 BOG. Hr has his favoured low draw over 6F and so should be able to get a clear run. Tuesdays tip cam third but with the non runner there were only two places.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 03/07/18 10:44 PM Reply


  • Lovely winner today. Hopefully it can continue tomorrow.

    Honey Gg Musselburgh Wednesday 14:00 1pt e/w Price available 8/1
    Twin Appeal Musselburgh Wednesday 15:30 1pt e/w Price available 7/1

    Nick Mazur 03/07/18 11:08 PM Reply


    • Nick, you tipped up Pastime a couple of races ago which was a N/R. Has since lost twice without blinkers but today back on for !st time, down 6lb, Kirby up and stable in form, good draw. Just wondered why you haven’t selected it.

      chubnut 04/07/18 8:39 AM Reply


      • With the football yesterday I didn’t even look at the AW.

        Nick Mazur 04/07/18 8:57 AM Reply


      • Sire Pastoral Pursuits is only 5 /117 with a very low A/E of only 0.42 over C&D and horse hasn’t ridden at Kempton before. Trainer and jockey combo is also 0/7 at Kempton.

        None of this means it won’t, or can’t, win but doesn’t inspire confidence. GL whatever you decide.

        jonnyh 04/07/18 12:56 PM Reply


  • todays qualifier,
    2-40 Worcester. Net Work Rouge 20-1 bv
    full results to follow

    martin whittle 04/07/18 1:19 AM Reply


  • Two bets starting point chasers.
    210 Auenwirbel 1.1% £11
    240 Blagapart if prior bet wins £10; a loss then £12.

    chrisrees 04/07/18 5:23 AM Reply


    • Both losers. Next stake £14.

      chrisrees 04/07/18 10:32 PM Reply


  • Worcester 240
    Kinari 16/1
    Bronco Billy 25/1
    1p EW on both
    -13.5p so fare
    Good luck with your bets.

    Maz 04/07/18 7:33 AM Reply


    • Kinari in NR
      I decided to have a go at
      Musselburgh 1600
      Zeshov 4/1
      1p Win

      Maz 04/07/18 10:39 AM Reply


  • I was 1 from 2 again yesterday and last night backed these for today…

    2.00 Musselburgh : Warriors Valley @ 3/1 BOG
    3.40 Worcester : Alcock & Brown @ 3/1 BOG
    8.50 Kempton : Illusional @ 13/2 BOG

    traf69 04/07/18 8:12 AM Reply


  • Morning,

    Todays, unfortunately no write ups.
    17:20 Thirsk
    RASTACAP 9/1 365 1pt ew
    HITMAN 10/1 pp 1pt ew
    18:20 Bath
    ENTERTAINING BEN 8/1 pp 1pt ew
    KYLLUKEY 14/1 pp 1pt ew
    19:50 Kempton
    PERCYS WORD 9/1 gen 1pt ew
    WEST COAST FLYER 6/1 gen 2pt win

    Good luck with whatever you back today.

    Stewart 04/07/18 8:17 AM Reply


  • Running Total: +8 points

    2.00 Musselburgh – Super Florence 1pt ew @ 14/1 (16/1 BFSB)

    Francis 04/07/18 8:59 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    A past note on it’s 2nd run after 22/2
    W4.40 – Phoenix Rock

    Titus 04/07/18 9:13 AM Reply


  • Gah. Highway Robber 6/1 generally now. Must have been tipped a few places.

    neilmck 04/07/18 9:50 AM Reply


    • yes, what a bugger, that moved quickly in no time sadly, must have been put up somewhere. 6s it will be, if he does manage to make all, prob more around the price I thought he could be.

      Josh 04/07/18 10:28 AM Reply


    • As short as 7/2 with Unibet – blimey, at this rate people will be talking about horses being “Josh Wrighted” rather than “Pricewised” or “Hugh Taylored”!

      johnnyb 04/07/18 10:37 AM Reply


      • ha, certainly isn’t anything to do with us!

        Josh 04/07/18 10:46 AM Reply


        • The trainer’s other runner at the meeting drifted out to 10/1 and won – very strange.

          johnnyb 04/07/18 4:58 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Worcester
    3.40 Solatentif
    Bath
    6.40 Kasbah
    Kempton
    5.50 Major Valentine
    5.50 Fortune And Glory
    7.50 Rakes Progress
    8.50 Zain Star

    colin leafe 04/07/18 10:38 AM Reply


  • A couple of pokes in 2.40 Worc…
    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/07/03/free-daily-post-3/

    Josh 04/07/18 10:48 AM Reply


    • Hi Josh, I was looking at this race last night 5 in this race I had backed before I backed Exxaro and the reason being last time he won his jumping was awful and thought surely if he jumped as bad he would fall, the thing I did notice about Bestwork was he was 2/2 in July always better after a run or two the thing that put me off was the distance, 22/1 was very overpriced in my opinion

      Greg Phillips 04/07/18 8:52 PM Reply


      • You know what Greg bestwork appeared in my tracker. I looked and looked and turned him down due to class and distance. Looking back Longsdon and Burke in form, stepped up in trip, Grrrr. Hope you were on.

        Paul Ebrey 04/07/18 9:04 PM Reply


        • Unfortunately I wasn’t but I feel nearer to solving the puzzles than I every have before, I love this site because the people that post and Josh himself are all trying to solve the puzzle but in different ways, I myself have been an inform ratings subscriber for a number of years, always finding things that get the old grey matter ticking over, SP2A I think are the best tipping service I have come across (thanks Josh) and the reason is there philosophy is very similar to my own, I even made money on the England game last night.

          Cheers Greg

          Greg Phillips 04/07/18 9:51 PM Reply


          • yep on reflection i should have thought about him in more depth..always more annoying when you don’t think about the horse enough..may still not have tipped him but don’t think I gave myself the best chance… should have watched a video of him, as he is a big horse, and those two tracks that he ran at last twice may not have suited him now he’s older/stronger/grown into frame etc. The trip was just a complete unknown, so in context of price you have to muse that he may well improve for it. The ‘way in’ should have been the pace angle, and the form of the yard, and from there should have looked at him more closely. You live and hopefully learn!

            Josh 04/07/18 11:55 PM Reply


  • Chris M Selections:
    16:20 Thirsk – Mutawaary (80/1 Coral, 66/1 gen) * 0.5pt EW Advised
    17:10 Worcester – Dropzone (8/1 lads, 15/2 gen)
    17:30 Bellewstown – Riding the Storm (11/2 gen)
    20:50 Wolver – Private Cashier (14/1 gen)

    Ran out of time, so may put a few more up later when I have time. Good luck with your bets

    Chris M 04/07/18 11:21 AM Reply


    • Further Selections:
      15:30 Musselburgh – Tommy G (6/1 gen)
      17:00 Musselburgh – Eternalist (2/1 gen)
      17:40 Worcester – Innoko (8/1 gen)
      18:00 Bellewstown – Scream (4/1 lads, 3/1 gen)
      20:30 Bellewstown – Lady Nathaniel (3/1 gen)

      That’s all from me today

      Chris M 04/07/18 11:37 AM Reply


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