A few days back some of my members were discussing a ‘twitter tipster’ they’d discovered. Such musings usually make me shudder as there are many conmen on the tweet machine, affiliate accounts galore, and it can be hard to find the gems – the genuine folk who have a method for finding their bets and willingly share them. Geraint Williams is one such punter, and he appears to have the Midas touch for landing the odd juicy Lucky 31/63. (or at least 2/3 winners/placed horses at big odds to ensure significant returns for a small outlay)
I’m always eager to learn about other punter’s methods as I think it’s vital to try and continually improve and to reflect on your own approach. Understanding how others attack the game is always useful. With that in mind I approached Geraint and asked him to write a few brief thoughts as to his main approach.
I’m sure you’ll find something below to ponder. He also touches on his recent 66/1 winner…
Over to Geraint…
There are many factors that can decide whether I back a horse or not. Sometimes it can be as easy as looking at the racecard and instantly being drawn to one I regularly back, other times it can take a good while longer.
My method if option A fails is speed ratings. A good way of doing it I find is going back 12 months through a horse’s form and finding all his runs on that ground, then seeing which of them fits the other race conditions (track direction, class of race, distance) and finding what their top speed rating was (I use Racing Post for this).
If that run was recently it’s also worth seeing whether they make the top 4 on the speed ratings on Attheraces. If you can find one that has the best speed stats over the conditions on the Racing Post and it’s also on Lawrence Taylor’s (attheraces) top 4, then you’re laughing.
If they don’t match then see if you can find a link through the race conditions, trainer form or anything that could see them improve (new head gear, new trip, change of yards etc)
For example, Cosmelli Saturday was the horse I picked out as being the top rated when you combined ground, left handed tracks and the trip over the past year. When I then went on to Lawrence Taylor’s speed ratings, he was ranked top due to his win at Southwell in January. Gaye Kellaway had recently had a winner and was in good form and Daniel Muscutt a positive jockey booking. Seeing odds of 66/1 for a horse that meets all my targets was just the icing on the cake. It’s time consuming but rewarding I find and I’m told a unique way of looking for winners. Anyway thanks for reading and hopefully this will help you find a few winners soon!
My thanks to Geraint for sharing. You can find him on Twitter HERE>>>
As with many punters, Geraint appears to have a ‘way in’, his being speed ratings on the going. In truth that’s not something i’ve ever thought about!
Over to you…
It would be great if we could get a discussion going in the comments below…
Do you have a ‘way in’ to a horse or a race? What approach do you take to finding bets?
There are many ways to prosper in this great sport, and I’d be interested to read what yours are, as it’s likely I and many others may learn something new.
Thanks for reading and if you post a comment,
p.s Free Report…. Geraint touched on looking for reasons why a horse may improve on recent runs. A few months back I wrote an in-depth article along similar lines, called ‘The Magic Formula?’, which you can read HERE>>> (opens with one click) With any luck you find something in there to take away also.