Free Daily Post: 04/07/18 (complete)

3m chase tips/write up

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2.40 Worcester

Vendredi Trois – 1 point win 7/1 (gen) 2nd 

Exxaro – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 3rd *

Damn, decent runs from the pair but just bumped into one.. I wasn’t near the winner, can overlook plenty at his price and trainer was in form, but his prev two runs were poor, first run in C3 and stamina to prove – but of course chance he could improve for it, decent win in the end. Annoying. 

A decent enough Summer class 3 handicap chase to get stuck into here. I won’t fall off my seat if the Newland horse bolts up again- knowing him he may still have 20lb+ in hand, but this is a different test from last time out where he strolled around in an awful 4 runner race and did what was expected, at C4 level. His jumping could have been sharper and it may be that a stronger pace/big field helps with that -or it may come under severe pressure. It’s hard to know how good he is or could be and this race will tell us plenty more. Clearly he’s expected to go very well. His price seems about right i’d say, if not a little short, and I want to take him on.  Time will tell if that’s foolish or not…

Vendredi Trois… well he stepped forward last time over CD and this is only his 6th chase. The hope is that he may be a better chaser than he was hurdler – well, he will need to be otherwise he’s just hit his ceiling and may have moved into a class level he won’t cope with. But, he travelled and jumped very well around here LTO, just off the pace, and won a shade cosily in the end. That experience should ensure he gets competitive here and could be the one to take advantage of any chinks in the fav. Given that he’s fit, looks progressive over fences, has CD form and comes here on the back of a decent win, I still thought this price may be a couple of points too big. He should give me a run for my money.

Exxaro… for a LTO winner and for one where connections may have found the key/got him right over fences, I thought 12/1 looked a few points too big here. There could be more to come from him. I suspect he’s a tad tricky and maybe he won’t back up the last run, but he did win a shade cosily there. He is up in class here but there are bits and pieces of form at this level that would give you hope and he used to be rated in the low 130s. Now he’s won a chase we could see a different horse. Clearly that last win could have just been a fluke but there is every chance he can build on it. He has course experience which is never a bad thing either. There is a slight niggle about this 3f drop in trip but it’s more an unknown and built into his price for me. This track allows you to wind up and get rolling and hopefully he can hold a position as they turn for home.

Of the rest..well the Bradstock horse is another unexposed one but this is much deeper than LTO and he’ll need to step forward, which he may do. But I was happy to leave him at his odds. Strongly Suggested was of some mild interest but he is 11 and only 1/13 in C3 handicap chases, usually strutting his stuff at C4. I’d like to think younger legs would have him here, but he could run a big race and Jonjo is in the best form i can ever remember. Of the bigger priced ones…well Golden Hoof may be worth tracking as he is lightly raced under rules and hit OR 138 for Nicky Henderson at one stage, now down to 123. He isn’t getting any younger and was awful LTO, arriving there on the back of decent point to point form this year. But, Barber may find the key this summer and win races with him, but i’d like to think this race may be hot enough, and he doesn’t come here in form. But, he is the most interesting of the biggies to my eyes. I can’t have the rest and if one of them wins then so be it.

*

That will be all for today.

GL with any bets,

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. Golf – Tournament match bet in the Irish Open. Otaegui to best Westwood at 2.04 for 7 points. Two players whose careers are going in the opposite direction. ‘Westy’ should enjoy the hospitality with his old mate Darren Clarke this week and the golf may be just a distraction to him.

    Good luck.

  2. Wed 4th July Thirsk 2.20
    Ratings
    1. Prince Elzaam
    2. Mecca’s Gift, Immokalee
    Ratings Bet: 1pt win Prince Elzaam.
    I put Prince Elzaam up on his debut. He looked a nice colt but was very green. 9/4 is a bit short but as Mecca’s Gift is 25’s and Immokalee is by Style Vendome I will take a chance at Bfsp. If Mecca’s Gift is heavily supported once they appear in the paddock I may have a saver on her.
    Hugh

    1. Prince Elzaam fulfilled his potential and won at 9/4 BFSP. The Michael Dods filly Mecca’s Gift missed the break and was a bit green but may be worth looking out for nto.
      Hugh

  3. Last nights Disgraceful antics by Colombia’s players during the game brought my mind back to 1966 and the game against Argentina when Alf Ramsey(England manager for you young ones) called them ANIMALS and the iconic moment when he ran onto the pitch to stop Bobby Moore changing shirts he would not let his players mix with Rattin’s Argentina players after the game.

    VAR what a joke thought this was supposed to clean up the game not make it worse or is it corruption,for i doubt any sane person thought that head butt by the Colombian player was anything other than a red card.
    The sad part about VAR the top man in charge is the finest referee i have ever seen the Italian retired referee Colinia and he does not deserve this.
    Harry Kane a outstanding player and captain for England
    6 World Cup goals from 4 games.
    Rooney 1 World Cup goal from 4 World Cup tournaments says it all.

    1. Agree with what you say about VAR Colin. Is Sepp Blatter in charge of it? I hear that he’s there as a guest of Putin having not been invited by FIFA.
      Hugh

    2. Couldn’t agree more Colin unfortunately old enough to remember the Argy side well .
      Shame the Colombians decided to play that way as they have a lot of attributes especially a big strong defence and could probably have done better if they just got on and played instead of giving away a penalty that ultimately cost them the game.
      Pete

  4. If what we saw last night, and sadly from other sides is “the beautiful game”; then the game is dead. I have never felt more demoralised about the sport of football and the big bucks that are killing it. May be not a coincidence that many sides packed with “superstars” are already home – the passion for the shirt has gone, only passion too many have; is for the wallet. Youth team players on 40k a week at Chelsea and Man City!

    The antics of Neymar just about sum this malaise up and whilst it is good that England are in the QF; lets be honest, apart from 45 mins v a poor League 1 level side, we have been distinctly average. Where are the Brazil of the 70’s; The Dutch of the 80’s, even the Spanish of the early noughties, it is all bland, boring, method football.

    Thankfully outside of our own Premiership, we have a structure right down the pyramid, where there is still genuine passion for the game and for local Clubs and this is where the fight to make the game “beautiful” again will begin. It is the guys and girls who follow Carlisle to Plymouth; Torquay to Gateshead, never miss a Walsall game and who spend countless unpaid hours coaching in the depth of winter that make the beautiful game, not these over paid, over hyped nobodies, playing with balls, that 20 years ago would have been confined to the beach playing as they do with slippers and not boots…

    I’ve only seen such blatant dirty play twice in the UK thank god; in 40 years and that was Revie’s Leeds and Aldridge’s Tranmere; and i just hope young kids watching last night, are never taken in by it as being acceptable, its not

    1. Ian,

      Brilliant. Could not have put that better myself. I am waiting for all the foreign owners to become fed up of English football & move on. Maybe Lacrosse will be their next target. Roll on.

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