Members Daily Post: 03/07/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Forever My Friend… we’ll put that to the test today! Having had a good look at this race I thought 7/2 may still be a point too big here, given everything he has going for him. IF this ground is genuinely on the fast side, then he’s the only one in the race with handicap wins on going with firm in the going, and given the weather and time of race, even if they have over-watered, you’d think it will have dried out further. He arrives here bang in form having run well in hunter chases and only going down here narrowly LTO, when the ground was anything but good that day, the front two miles clear of the rest. Peter Bowen’s son trains their hunter-chasers, but they are all stabled at Peter’s and use the same facilities/gallops etc- so, for me, it isn’t really a trainer change. He is now below the mark he won from at the track last summer, stays further, and races prominently – I think Sean can dictate this race if he wishes too, and put his jumping experience/course form/extra stamina to good use. I just thought he looked solid against this lot. Some in here want it softer I think, and the Snowden and Lacey horses may just lack the chasing experience- although both unexposed in this sphere. They have both only won 2/3 runner chases to date and this will be a different test- I wouldn’t put anyone off a saver, to cover stakes, on Exitas   who does look interesting at the odds given his chasing form a few months back, and he arrives in some sort of form. But, he is on a career high mark, the jockey has never ridden him and has yet to place on his 6 rides at the track. There is also a slight stamina niggle but I think he should be fine. Anyway, despite his advancing years, to my eyes the selection is the one they all have to beat and i’d be disappointed if he isn’t in contention jumping the last here, hopefully a few lengths ahead. For a 7/2 shot in a handicap chase, he looks as solid as they come to my eyes, in race conditions.

Sir Pass I Am – If my memory is correct I tipped this one at 9s or so when he was well backed and won here over CD last May. He could have won that by 15l if ridden out to the line and I think there are valid excuses for all of his runs since. I suspect he needed his return at Doncaster in a C4 and then he was pitched into a C2 at Chester, which was too hot for him and no doubt the track may have been tight enough. He drops back into a C5 here. Murphy jumps back on for the first time in three runs, having ridden him when winning here, and in a race that lacks any out and out front runners on paper, I wondered whether he may try and take this from the front. In any case he should be in the right spot, no excuses. There was a run at Windsor over too short which suggested GF is fine, and in these conditions he is still unexposed. He is only one of two horses to have ran at the course and the only one to have won. That could count for something around here, and Balding’s string are going a bit better than they have been. Of course, it could just be that he’s out of sorts but I  thought there was just enough juice in his price. If he drifts markedly i’ll know my fate. If you were still running him into form I don’t know why you’d bring him back to this CD, and indeed put Murphy back on. He could still have a bit in hand when it all clicks again. The dangers… well, in truth, I nearly bottled tipping him simply for fear of the favourite,Circling Moon  as he has a massive GG speed figure compared to this lot and is in decent form. If he repeats his penultimate start then he may be the one to beat. Maybe the trip was too short LTo but i’m not sure, given he won over 12f 3 starts back, and he does need to bounce back here. But, Murtagh’s UK raiders often go close.I wasn’t sure this race would be run to suit either, it could turn into a relative dash. I didn’t think there was much else in this…well, the Haggas horse is interesting but short enough given the stamina unknown, but could clearly relish it. They put CP on which would concern me a tad, as they clearly think he needs some help. I wont be shocked if he went well. I thought the Prescott horse was just a slow boat on the evidence to date, but maybe that will be enough and he may appreciate this track. With any luck the selection runs up to his best, and returns to the form of his demolition job here last May, as if he does then he’s considerably overpriced.

I am loving a placed horse at the moment, and could do with one hitting the back of the net.

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Recent Tips(TEST,from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 4/39,14p, -0.5) 

None today.