Members Daily Post: 30/06/18 (complete)

Fest Tips x4 , Section 1 (comp), The Rokingham stats + shortlists

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Chester

2.30 – Confessional    (3yo+ Hc’s) H3 I3 G3 9/2 S4 S5 UP
4.50 – Pea Shooter    (micro +1class) 18/1 

 

Newmarket

4.05 – Rampant Lion    (micro’s class and +dist) 14,30  G1 11/2 
4.40 – Considered Opinion   (All hncs 5yr, 3yo+, M runs)  w1 14 ES+ H3 I3 G3 6/1 S3A# S4 S5 2nd 

 

Windsor
NONE

 

York

4.30 – Midnight Malibu    (micro runs)   w1 H1 I3  8/1 S2 S6 UP
5.00 – Remember the Days    (micro age)  w2 11/1 UP

 

Doncaster

6.00 – Black Salt    (4yo+, micro’s age and lto 90+) 18/1 UP

8.00 –

Related    (micro dist) H3 I3 13/2 UP

Case Key    (micro going) I3 14/1 UP

9.00 –

Sellingallthetime (micro going) I1 H1 G3 11/4 S1 S2 S4 UP

My Fantasea (all Hc’s) I1 H3 G1 7/1 S1 S2 S4 S6 WON 7/1>9/4 

 

Lingfield

7.45 – Deer Song  (micro class) 14 I3 20/1 UP
8.15 – Porto Ferro  (micro class) 14 I3 H3 G3 5/1 S4 S5 WON 5/1 
8.45 – Baby Gal  (micro CDJ) I3 H1 15/2 S2 S6 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 14/157,52p, -1.7) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +156)

 

NOTES

8.00 Donc – King Robert – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) 3rd

that will be all for notes tips, 10.18

Tipped LTO it is the return of the visor that lured me in really, and they try a hood also. He is well handicapped on plenty of turf and AW efforts, the yard have picked up in recent days, and he’s very solid across Geegeez/inform ratings. He races prominently and has Secretinthepark and Related to track and he should be in the right spot. Plenty of his C3 placed efforts in the visor, from much higher marks, would see him competitive here. Worth a dabble at 9s to my eye.

 

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‘Festival’ Tips

2.15 Curragh

hmm…that didn’t go too well! 0/3,0p, -4 , +152

Justanotherbottle – 1.5 points win – 8/1 (PP/BV/BetfS/Boyle) 15/2 (gen) 

Move In Time – 1.5 points win – 9/1 (bet365/BV) 8/1 (gen) 

Sors – 1 point win – 40/1 (Lad/BetfS/PP/BV) 33/1 (gen) 

4 points total,09.35

I’ve stuck with the shortlist for 2 of these, the Carroll horse is unexposed and going the right way, and British sprinters often have the measure of their Irish cousins when coming over here. Move In Time is 10 now but is in cracking form again and this test should suit. That Muss race is the best recent handicapping form on show here I think and he was marooned up the middle that day. He’s yet to run a bad race this season really and wasn’t far behind Major Jumbo a few starts back, who went close at Ascot in the Wokingham. Maybe younger legs will do for him but I suspect he won’t be far away. The booking of Billy Lee caught the eye.  Sors won this race two years back, the ground could be too quick over 5f here, but he’s on the shortlist, is 40/1 and I can make some sort of case – which I struggled to do for Patrick, given he’s so far out the handicap although he did run second in this race last year. He doesn’t look in great form to my eye and I suspect Midgley just had space in the horsebox/ferry, but I could be wrong. Maybe ‘just in case’ loose change BFSP but I really can’t see it.

 

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Recent Tips(from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 4/34,12p, +4.5) 

2.10 York- Belle Meade (1st run)

5.25 Chest- Stormin Tom (1st run) 

8.00 Donc – King Robert (1st run) 

Others… Past Festival Tips

1.30 Newc – Danny Day 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

2.15 Curragh The Rokingham

10/157 runners, 35 places (to compare the below against) 

10/10 age 4-6 (3yo 0/28,4p, 7+ 0/25,7p) 

10/10 had ru C2+ in career (yet to run above C3, 0/21,1p) 

10/10 had 8+ hncp runs (0-7, 0/52,9p) 

10/10 had 3+ runs this season (0-2, 0/37,7p)

10/10 had 3+ career wins (0-2, 0/58,8p) 

10/10 had 1+ hncp win (0, 0/33,4p) 

10/10 had 2+ places (inc wins) in handicaps (0-1, 0/34, 6p) 

6/10 Top 3 LTO, 8/10 Top 5 LTO (although numbers outside of that are small, so a guide) 

5/10 had been trained in the UK. 5/35 runners, 15p, +36 BFSP if you’d backed the lot. 

Trainers: no multiple winners in last 10. 

Jockey: RP Cleary (Lucky Beggar) 2/6,2p (2x diff trainers) 

 

Stats Shortlist: Applying all of the 10/10 stats, leaves 3. Some of the sample sizes/place stats make me nervous as to whether the profile will hold, but if it does, one of these three will be winning…

Justanotherbottle / Sors / Patrick 

Ignoring the age stat adds in: Move In Time / Caspian Prince / Line of Reason / Duke of Firenze / Plough Boy / Lucky Beggar 

 

‘Festival’ Tips

2.15 Curragh

Justanotherbottle – 1.5 points win – 8/1 (PP/BV/BetfS/Boyle) 15/2 (gen) 

Move In Time – 1.5 points win – 9/1 (bet365/BV) 8/1 (gen) 

Sors – 1 point win – 40/1 (Lad/BetfS/PP/BV) 33/1 (gen) 

4 points total, write up to follow time allowing…09.35

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 Responses

  1. Wouldn’t normally recommend tipsters but take a look at @Raceolly on Twitter. Very consistent tipster at decent prices, close to a very big win today (probably go on a long losing streak now!). Downside is he’s casual and doesn’t track results etc.

        1. Thanks Darren, I do a multiple once in a blue moon and I think this is the best win I’ve ever had.
          Hugh

  2. Nothing again today, so -2pts.

    With a number of high class, big field, competitive races at Newcastle tomorrow, I’ve decided to abandon my usual strategy for the day and instead give you my through-the-card list of qualifiers.

    12.20 Volatile 9/1 & Raucous 9/1
    12.55 Intisaab 8/1 & Aeolus 11/1
    1.30 Look My Way 18/1(EW) & Cosmelli 66/1(EW) Sky 6 places
    2.05 Watersmeet 22/1(EW) & Clever Cookie 50/1(EW) Sky 6 places
    2.40 Good Time Ahead & Lopes Dancer 12/1
    3.15 Stamp Hill 10/3 & Suzi’s Connoisseur 7/2
    3.50 Ventura Ocean 8/11* & Zip 16/1
    4.25 Testa Rossa 14/1 & Garrick 9/4

    All 1pt win except where noted EW.

    * I will count all of these in my results except for Ventura Ocean as I never bet odds on.

    Good Luck

    1. Thanks Ken, was looking for some pointers for the Northumberland Vase so I gave yours a closer look. Cosmelli in decent form, 5lb lower than last year when beaten 3 lengths, happy to take a chance at that price. ‘Only’ got 50/1 for him though haha.

    2. Blimey Ken, you can Chris have picked out some belters there early in the card! Top tipping.
      (although, I would personally keep the results separate, if they have nothing to do with your usual systematic strategy that you have been testing/posting etc? Wouldn’t be a true representation, if this list was derived from a different approach…to my eyes anyway, but you do as you please! :))

      1. Thanks folks. When a 66/1 shot goes in there’s always an element of luck involved but if there’s one thing I’ve learned in last couple of years it’s when there are big fields there’s a fair chance of a big odds winner. Picking the right one is the lucky bit. Cheers.

  3. Have been away in the fields for last few weeks so haven’t really had much time to post.I looked briefly at Comedy for K Burke last night but the price at the time wasn’t tempting,its winning price however wasn’t bad.One I did back was Crystal Moonlight,what drew me in was the unusual booking of Tudhope 5/9 (maybe a job booking12/1-4/1)for Stoute in 3yo races,my eyes were closing as i was typing it up last night,and i left it unposted,one to note going forward.
    Newmarket 1.10 Elheidi 7/1 Bet365
    Burke has a fairly good record with 2yo at the track,the jockey seems to be ok.Ran very good debut at Haydock,closing to loose by kneck to more battle hardened johnston horse,hopefully that 2nd will have sharpened him up,don’t really like dropping below 10/1 price wise with so many big name trainers having entries,but I think that was an above average race,Anyway back to the fields

  4. this is starting to get a bit embarrassing but i’ll persevere you never know it might turn itself around.
    3 qualifiers today.
    2-45 York. Fayez 11-1 bv
    4-50 Chester. Boundsy 25-1 bv/b365
    8-00 Doncaster. King Robert 10-1 generally

    1. Hi Martin,
      if you would wish to share your methodology, either here or by email, perhaps we can take a look and suggest some potential tweaks? I have a deal of experience on systems as do others here. You can get me on mcolwell1959@aol.com .

      1. Thanks for the offer Martin,i’ve been playing around with systems for 30 odd years and it was just one that i was paper trading that looked promising,i’ll do 100 and see where it is then. i am playing around with a bf lto which i’m tweaking at the moment which could be something or nothing but is throwing up some interesting stats.

        1. Always a tricky one, sample size. 100 is in theory not long enough but it all depends whether you have enough time to maintain records of a number of systems.

    1. I like the card and here are some ideas:
      1220 A class drop on the surface for Solar Flair
      1255 Cardsharp a class drop after an easy listed win on previous run.
      130 Euchen Glen in prime form and this is an ideal CD for more progress
      205 Soldier In Action v. well h’capped now and this trip suits him.
      Have a great time.

    2. Hey, I haven’t had time sadly, although I’m not sure my views on the sand would be up to much. plenty of comments to have a flick through with any luck. Have fun.
      Josh

  5. 2:15 Curragh
    I think looking for a male horse aged between 4 and 7 with between 3 and 7 runs this season and has finished at least 4th in one of its last three runs is the best place to look.
    This leaves a workable shortlist of 6
    Justanotherbottle
    Dark Shot
    Nigg Bay
    Only Spoofing
    Plough Boy
    Patrick
    Nothing has won this with odds over 20/1 for at least 20 years either so I’m favouring the top 3 on that basis at the moment

  6. Chris M Selections:
    13:30 Newcastle – Bedrock (9/1 gen)
    13:55 Chester – Urban Aspect (9/4 gen)
    14:50 Curragh – Fleet Review (6/4 gen)
    15:40 Chester – Socru (8/1 Lads, 15/2 gen)
    16:35 Curragh – Van Beethoven (6/4 gen)
    16:30 York – Midnight Malibu (9/1 WH, 8/1 gen)
    16:40 Newmarket – Dynamic (13/8 gen)
    20:00 Doncaster – Related (13/2 gen)

    Good luck with whatever you bet today!

  7. COLINS BETS
    Newcastle
    1.30 Euchen Glen
    4.25 Testa Rossa
    Newmarket
    1.45 Sir Dancelot
    York
    2.45 Club Wexford
    Doncaster
    6.00 Acrux
    7.30 Shaheen
    8.00 Case Key
    9.00 My Fantasea

  8. Never Back Down Newcastle 12:55 1pt e/w Price taken 8/1
    Lady In Question York 14:10 1pt e/w Price taken 10/1
    Welliesinthewater Doncaster 18:00 1pt e/w price taken 15/2
    King Robert Doncaster 20:00 1pt e/w Price taken 10/1 (9/1 still available)
    African Blessing Lingfield 20:45 1pt e/w Price taken 14-16/1

  9. Tips – 2.05 NC Amazing Red 2 points each way at 7/1 and 2.40 NC Airton 3 points win at 9/2 BOG.
    Minus 20.25 points in June and so these guys need to save the month.

    Good luck.

    1. !!! came away from Withhold, who I won 4 figures + on in the Cesarewich, due to lack of market support and it has dotted up!!!! SOD.

  10. Congratulations Ken on Cosmelli winning by a nose.

    The BHA have to do something for the jockey Muscutt been banned for 6 days for a whip offence and on that evidence Cosmelli would not have won a 6 day ban means nothing when the connections have won £46,688 for a nose and up to a length the placings should be reversed,for breaking the rules they have prospered and until the connections are hit the jockeys will always take a 6 day ban.

    1. Thanks Colin. Its been a testing time recently but that more than makes up for it. I would normally agree with you on whip issue but on this occasion I’ll go with the BHA 🙂

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