Members Daily Post: 26/06/18 (complete)

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 13/151,49p, -3) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +156)

NOTES

2.15 Bright – Harrison Stickle – 1 point win – 15/2 (lad/WH/BetB) 7/1 (gen)  WON 7/1>5/1 

2.30 Bev- Mujassam – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) 2nd 5/1>10/3 

8.45 Newb- Haylah – 1 point win – 25/1 (WH/PP/BV) 22/1 (gen) 3rd 20/1>10/1…decent run, no complaints…she probably needed the eventual winner to get into a pace battle early on, but ran on well and was exciting for a time. At least we lost to Nick’s only tip on the day! She will win races on this evidence, a stiffer 6f or maybe even 7f. I’m not sure why she was ridden so far back but I suppose when stepping one up in trip you are more cautious. Were she just behind the pace it may have been very interesting. 

that’s all for tips, (08.53), write ups on way…

Harrison Stickle... he felt a bit overpriced to my eyes although he seems unsteady in the market and it is a C6 handicap at Brighton after all, but I couldn’t help myself. He hits a few strategies and is top rated on Geegeez speed ratings, some way clear of plenty in here. Provided he breaks on terms- or even if he does miss it slightly as he can do- I thought he should be able to get the lead here. The Loughnane horse has been front running for previous connections but over further, so may not have the pace to do so. The selection ran well LTO after a break, very nearly clinging on but getting run out of it late. I suspect he will strip fitter here and a repeat of that run should put him in the mix. He’s 7lb below his one flat win, and returns to fast ground which I thought should suit. Hopefully he reacts positively to the blinkers again, but that’s always a risk. The trainer is 5/21,9p, +44 in C6 handicaps here in the last 5 years. You’d maybe like the trainer to be in better form, but it’s hard to know if he’s out of form, given the majority of his runners in recent weeks have gone off 16s+. The track is an unknown, rattling down this hill on fast ground, but if he can keep his balance, his running style is ideal and this may be the perfect trip for him around here. He is still low mileage enough and with any luck will give me a run for my money. 

Mujassam…this one looked intriguing given he arrives in some sort of form, having ‘ran on’ the last day at Chester over 6f, getting too far back and not given a hard time, but finishing well enough/like a horse on ok terms with himself. Today…well, he moves back up in trip which should suit, drops into a C5 handicap for the first time in his career and Danny T jumps back on for the first time in a few runs. They also remove the blinkers for the first time in 14 runs or so I think, and replace it with the visor, which he has won in. 3 starts ago at Ripon he ran a cracker in a C4 over 6f, which is probably too sharp for him, splitting a stablemate who’s since come out and won twice, and another who’s won since off 75 in a C4. Were he to repeat that effort he would go very close here. I thought it looked between him and the Fav, and hence there was some mileage in this price. He is a bit tricky but I expect him to be up there early, more prominent, maybe tracking SDS. I wouldn’t be shocked if these two were 1-2 in a certain order, but we shall see. (fun forecast options maybe) I was happy to have a play and I’d say he is the one I’m most confident on of the three, poor bugger. 

Haylah...clearly a poke here but price is generally irrelevant for Hannon, and especially at Newbury… Hannon is 4/21,7p in 6f handicaps here… he is 10/31,14p, +65 SP in class 5 handicaps here over the last 5 years (that’s a micro I should probably save/track!) including winners at 16/1 and 20/1. 3/5,3p in C5 handicaps over 6f. This is probably a deep enough race for the grade given the number of previous winners/those bang in form…but a few of those have gone up plenty in the weights and have new questions to answer. And, in this price range, I’m more likely to focus on the horse and see if I can make a case…well, she is lightly raced/unexposed and ran well enough here last Sept on her first career start. It could be she arrives bang out of form here, but at this price I’ll assume she just hated the blinkers and maybe didn’t like Goodwood either LTO. She’s back at a more conventional track today, headgear dispensed. Of more interest was the step back up to 6f on turf. Ignoring her last run, she ran ok on the two starts before that, looking outpaced before staying on. I just wanted to see her over 6f at a galloping track, with a pace to aim at. Given those stats above, and the fact that one day she should show more in handicaps, I was willing to roll the dice at 25/1. Her mark is falling and she goes into a handicap for older horses for the first time, getting the weight for age allowance. So, something different again. We shall see. But, at least I’ve stumbled across that Hannon class micro and that may win us 50+ points over the coming seasons, you never know.  

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7.30 Newton A – Highbury High (1st run since tipped) 

9.15 Newb – Sayesse (2nd run since tipped) 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

2.30 Bee- Zylan WON 14/1 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update 

Results Update  (4^thJune- 24^thJune) 

Summary below, links in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies will be updated asap

Summary

TOTAL (strategies) (Section 1):

• JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (1/33,5p, -18, -27 BFSP) S2A (subset of S2… 0/8,0p, -8) S3 (2/10,3p, +10) S3A (3/18,4p, -1/5) S4 (/) S5 (0/10,0p, -10)
• FLAT 2018: S1 (3/10,5p, +5.25) S2 (7/26,12p, +13.75) S3A (1/18,2p, -12) S4 (4/15,8p, +6.75) S5 (3/10,5p, +6) S6 (2/21,8p, -5, -8 BFSP)

TEST ZONE

• Jumps angles: 1/29,6p, -23.5
• Flat: (Fell) 1/20,6p, -17

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago w1 / w2)

• Jumps: 3/15,4p, -3.25 (w1 : 3/10,3p, +1.75, w20/5,1p, -5)
• Flat: 4/20,1p, +4.5 (w13/8,5p, +12.5, w2 1/12,5p, -8)

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 0/3,0p, -3

S3A# – S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat): 2/14,5p, 3/10,3p, +3.5

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Where To Begin? ‘Advised’ Portfolio Ideas

(based on the report/link in The Key… ‘The Strategies: Where should you start’)

Flat: S1 (3/10,5p, +5.25, 2018 – 10/30,13p, +19) S4 (4/15,8p, +6.75, 2018 – 15/57,27p, +18.6 ) S6 (2/21,8p, -5, -8 BFSP, 2018 – 6/66,17p, +9, +27 BFSP)

Jumps: S2A (0/8,0p, -8, 2018 – 7/100,21p, +40, +65.5 BFSP)

Total 4^th-24^thJune: 9/54,21p, -1, -4 BFSP

Total 2018 (1 point win):  253 bets / 38 wins / 78 w|p / +86.6 (early/bog) / +130.1 (BFSP)

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Selected others

S3A#(ES+ double/treble rated):

Total (Jumps/Flat): 100 bets / 29 wins / 45 w|p / +38.75 (early/bog)

‘In-Form Horses’

Those section 1 stats qualifiers Flat + jumps  that WON last time out (w1) are now, since being tracked from 12^thFeb 2018:

113 bets / 26 wins / 39w|p / +20.8 (early/bog)

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The ‘where to begin’ ideas, as a portfolio after 253 bets are operating at a 15% win SR.

That does mean iffy losing runs every now and then… 43 max (approx.) every 1000 bets, and everything in between, multiple times. That win SR is down to the ‘bigger odds’ strategies that are Flat S6 and Jumps S2A, which are not for the faint hearted, if following systematically. As with everything I do it’s about offering options/ideas to suit your own betting style/tolerance etc. 

For those who may prefer bigger win SR when following strategies/systems, and less stress in terms of shorter losing runs etc…

Well, Flat S1 + S4 are, combined… 87 bets / 25 wins / 40 w|p / +37.6… so a 29% SR or so.

We shall see if that continues around that level, but such a SR means maximum losing run per 1000 bets of approx. 19.

S3A#is starting to look decent also, as it hits 100 bets. Logically, that should keep ticking over.

Many of you may just use the qualifiers/strategies as ‘starting points’/shortlists also, so hopefully that info is useful in that endeavour.  

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