Free Daily Post: 26/06/18 (hold)

Some strategy qualifiers from the members’ posts…

From the members’ post… below are today’s strategy ‘S3A#’ qualifiers from the members’ posts, a strategy we are tracking/keeping a close eye on… firstly all of those horses hit my trainer stats reports.. they are then what I call ‘Elite Squad+’  ES+ qualifiers, indicating that the stats which they derive from are the most solid…at least 10 winners in the research period, 25% win SR or 20 % win SR + 50% win/place SR. This strategy is complete when I add in any ‘ratings pointers’ (the red symbols) from the 3 ratings sets I use… and when an ES+ qualifier has 2 or 3 ratings pointers also (which are based on the ability of the horse in the context of their race, whereas my stats are just based on trainer behaviour) they become an ‘S3A#’ qualifier- simple! 🙂 This ‘fusion approach’ (trainer based stats + horse based ratings) forms the core of many of the members’ strategies…

The results since I started tracking these as of Sunday were… 

S3A#(ES+ double/treble rated):

Total (Jumps/Flat): 100 bets / 29 wins / 45 w|p / +38.75 (early/bog odds)

They are ticking along just fine and logically should keep doing so with any luck. I’d take 35 points or so every 100 selections to 1 point win bets. 

Anyway, don’t back these systematically today, but you may wish to use these qualifiers as a ‘way in/starting point’ and work out if you wish to back any or not. 

 

FLAT 

Beverley 

2.30 – Mujassam (micro TJC + m dist) ES+H1 I3 G3 5/1 S2 S3A# S4

3.30 – 

Pioneering (4yo+ 5 yrs, 4yo+,+m TJC/age) ES+I3 G3 8/1 S3A#

 

Brighton

3.45 – 

On A May Day (all hncps 5 yrs) w1 14ES+H1 I3 G3 2/5 S2 S3A# S4

4.45 – Ravenhoe (all hncps 5 yrs) ES+H3 I3 7/2 S3A# 

 

*

That’s all for today, 

GL with any bets, 

Josh 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. World Cup – my bad run continued with Iran converting a late dodgy penalty, VAR assisted, to knock the 7/4 under 1.5 goals. Today I will lay Argentina at 3/5 v Nigeria for 2 points. They look all over the place even if they get rid of their odd little manager today.

    Good luck.

    1. Portugal had a dodgy penalty for Ronaldo was falling before contact was made in my view and how he was not sent off for hitting that guy in the face with his forearm most surprised at that decision,for me he knew what he was doing.

  2. GOLF BETS
    French Open
    Sergio Garcia 1 point ew 22/1 1/5 8 SB 22/1 1/5 7 CO BO
    Ian Poulter 1 point ew 22/1 1/5 8 SB 22/1 BF BO
    Both players need a good summer for they are outside automatic qualification for the Ryder Cup team so a bold show is expected from both.

    Quicken Loan National
    Francesco Mollinari 1 point ew 20/1 1/5 7 CO BFSB PP BO
    in very good form with a win in Italy and 25th in the US Open last week and this course will suit him.
    Beau Hossler 1 point ew 33/1 1/5 7 CO BFSB PP Bet Stars
    A win for Beau must be close after recording 10 consecutive cuts including a couple of 2nds, and this is not the most competitive tournament.

    1. Golf – this week I like Andy Sullivan at 28/1, 1 point each way He has some course form at this course in France and is finding some form now. In the U.S. I like Kyle Stanley at 25/1, 1 point each way. This is the type of course that suits his game I think and he may go well?

      Good luck, or as I say when on the golf course, ‘Fore, Fore’.

  3. Newbury 26th June
    Newbury 6.40 6f Novice Auction
    Ratings
    1. Devil’s Roc, Fast Endeavour, Iconic Choice
    2. Perfectly,
    3. Arishka, Be Like Me, Canford Dancer, Pass The Gin
    Ratings Bet 1pt e/w Fast Endeavour
    This looks like a weak race for a class 4. Of the top rated Iconic Choice looks to deserve his place at the head of the market, yet Tom Dascombe 6% has particularly weak stats here, as logically does Richard Kingscote 5% although as he also rides for Jonny Portman and Beckett who are local, one might think it is a course that doesn’t suit him. Devil’s Roc has shown nothing yet which leaves Fast Endeavour. She has not competed against the same quality as Iconic Choice but is around 8 times the price.
    Newbury 7.20 7f Novice
    Ratings
    1. Just My type, Spanish Aria
    2. Cottontail, Lolita Pulido, My Law, Tronada
    3. Room To Improve
    Ratings Bet 1pt E/w Tronada
    Whilst the two top rated look the best types long term the form of Lolita Pulido’s debut looks ok and she looked to have some size about her. My Law as a debutant for Meehan and Tronado once raced for Alan King also look dangerous. Tronada was given a very easy time on debut over 7f at Chelmsford and ran on with great purpose under h & H.
    Hugh
    Windsor review and photo file to follow

  4. Windsor 25th June 6f Newcomers Maiden
    Photo file https://imgur.com/a/s7Tiybk
    1. Watchmyeverymove – Medium size lowslung athletic type. One of the few in this field that looked properly fit. Ex Breeze up. Difficult to back a Stewart Williams on debut but with him putting Pisin up I managed to overcome my reservations. 74
    2. Shanghai Grace – Colty, mdium size but clumsily made. 70
    3. Concierge – Lower medium neatly made. 67
    4. Sussex Solo – Smallish, oddly capable debut for a 2yo from connections. 65
    5. Glory – looked the lesser of the two Hannon runners, also longer price. Ordinary 66
    6. Swiper – Best model in the paddock but not looking particularly ready. 73
    7. Archdeacon – No picture. Looked very immature and leggy. 64
    8. Halle’s Harbour – Small down hill. Appears to have some speed for a weak nursery. 60
    9. Pentland Lad – Bit downhill, compact small colt. Paid for going too fast early. 65
    10. Catch the Cuban – Great big strong lad, noisy and stupid, a bit coarsely made. Might have a maiden in him. 68
    11. Relative Ease – Small, plain 56
    12. Time Triallist – Small, chunky strongly made. Not fit as per usual for 2yos from Mr Phelan. 62
    13. Deadly Force – Way too fat, big and strong but no raciness about him. Some low level potential. 63
    14. Meraki – Still quite downhill, not a bad shape, never put in race. 70
    15. Song Of The Isles – Yak 46
    16. Storm Shelter – Not a bad model so hard to know just why he appeared so slow. Nothing to justify rating above 50.
    Hugh

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