Members Daily Post: 25/06/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Chepstow

4.00- Dalness Express (micro TJC/age) 14,30H1 I3 G1 5/1 S1 S2 S4  BD 

 

Windsor

None.

JUMPS

Southwell

2.15 – Lotus Pond (all hncps) 14,30w1 H1 I1 4/7 WON 4/7>1/3 

5.15 – Kovera (hncp h + m age) w2 12/1 S2 up

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 12/148,46p, -8)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +156)

NOTES

8.30 Kilb – Conrad Hastings – 1 point win – 7/1 (Skyb/BV) 13/2 (gen) 3rd 4/1 (no excuses, perfect position and every chance from 2/3 out, upside winner. Not good enough on the day) 

I’ll take a punt on the De Bromhead test qualifier below who appears to have plenty going for him I think… He is a lightly raced chaser who’s shown some decent form in his early starts. On his last three runs he’s been pitched into the deep end, on soft/heavy ground. I don’t think he’s coped with the level of competition (G1s/2s, C3 today) or indeed the going, hence the two PUs. If that isn’t the excuse then I could be in trouble, but I expect a much better showing today. The horse is a CD winner and I found it of some interest that they return here. Davy Russel is also back on and the trainer/jockey are 2/4,3p on chasers here, inc one on this horse. They are 4/15,7p when teaming up on handicap chasers. The horse looks like he needs decent ground and is 3/3 in May/June/July, returning to action at a time when his trainer is in great form- 7/30,13p in the last 14 days. This horse has some decent novice form in the book, beating Rathvinden into second last August in a chase…he would go on to win at the Festival and is now rated in the early 150s. He also won cosily on his two chase starts before that. Were there a number/running on performance next to his name, rather than two Ps, you would be rather bullish. But then again he may be favourite in this line up if that were the case. Fingers crossed he’s ready here…I’m not sure why you would run at this CD/book Davy, if he wasn’t. I think he should be better than all of these at his best, but time will tell. The market will no doubt guide. 

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Yesterday was a tad annoying, in that I still can’t read a jumps stats qualifier that well for tipping purposes.. I stared at the Hobbs’ winner for a good while – thankfully Nick tipped it to soften the blow of bottling doing the same, but still frustrating…that was a case of an unexposed handicap hurdler being in form…having run in a couple of races that had produced subsequent winners/horses to have run well…he was fit and in form…and the main sign… the fact Johnson jumped back on for the first time in a few runs. And in a weak enough looking race. 8/1. I think the lack of distance/class move may have dissuaded me, but I didn’t put enough emphasis on the jockey booking, but that’s said with hindsight. I’ll get there…but given how this year has gone, I do plan to focus a fair amount of my energies on ‘Festivals’ I think – you have to know where your strengths are, and strangely, those types of races appear to be it, for now at least! But, we have a few weeks until the likes of Goodwood/Galway etc. 

 

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Recent Tips(from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 3/23,10p, +13.5) 

none.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps 

Irish Angles

8.30 Kilb – Conrad Hastings 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Blessed To Empress…

She runs in the 7.10 Windsor this evening. I won’t be there this time but hopefully she runs well… to my eyes it looks like the hottest race she may have run in..a 3YO only handicap, plenty of lightly raced horses from powerful connections, well bred sorts and many of them in form. She also moves up in class and Amy wants to try her in CP, so we shall see what impact they have. The ground has been Firm the last twice, which she hasn’t enjoyed…and it’s hard to know today how much firm will be in this going. She doesn’t jar up on it, but has changed legs/not put down fully, the last twice. So, we shall see. If I’m honest I’d be in shock if she won this, but she could run well and her attitude may get her in the money with any luck. A small EW nibble with my owners blinkers on no doubt…hopeful, rather than expectant! 

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Results Update..

I owe you all an update for the last 3 weeks for Section 1/strategies etc, and that will be my main task this morning. I need to add a few horses to my tracker, and reflect on Royal Ascot to see what lessons can be learnt, and how the various stats approaches got on. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

33 Comments

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  • Lovely winner today who was far more comfortable than expected. Three for tomorrow:

    Shaiyzar Southwell Monday 14:15 1pt e/w- I have been waiting for him to return the Southwell over 3m since he finished 2nd here back in November. Gets ideal conditions here and his trainer had 2 winners in June after not having one for over 2 months including one at the track. Would have won here back in November if he didn’t make a mistake at the last and is on the same mark so expect him to go close. The fav clearly has loads in hand but he could easily bounce and may not be suited by the quick re-appearance and the 2nd and 3rd fav may also need it. Trainer is 2/8, 4p in handicap chases at the track in the past 2 years and Brooke is 3/14 for him over handicap chases including 1/3 at the track.
    Glamorous Rocket Windsor Monday 18:10 1pt e/w-Has been running consistently and won LTO. She is only up 3lbs for that. I was drawn tot he fact that the front 3 in the market are all drawn high where as our pick should be able to bag the rail. Ran OK in a novice here as a2 yr old going close with a number of horses now rated 70+. Probert rides the track extremely well.
    Glamorous Dream Windsor Monday 19:10 1pt e/w-Another who should bag the rail from a good draw and race prominently. Just picked my pick LTO with 4 lengths back to 3rd. The runner up more than franked the form winning by 6 lengths NTO. She is up 8lbs here however I think there is more to come and given she pulled quite hard last time I think that the drop back in trip will suit. There is very little pace in the race so I am hoping she gets an early lead.

    Nick Mazur 24/06/18 8:08 PM Reply


    • Well done with the 8/1 winner on Sunday. Thanks to you and Hugh Taylor and Josh and Bacchus I have hit my monthly profit figure a week early (and I was away on holiday for a week as well).
      I will send you some more bottles later this week.

      martin colwell 24/06/18 8:31 PM Reply


      • Wow that’s very kind of you Martin.

        Nick Mazur 24/06/18 8:37 PM Reply


        • Hit the spot again, Nick, thank you.

          I’d like to send you something by way of thanks too, if you don’t mind, perhaps Josh could put us in touch?

          Chris Murrell 25/06/18 6:52 AM Reply


          • Yeah me too Nick if that’s ok?

            lightowlers 25/06/18 7:38 AM Reply


            • Yeah sure that’s very kind of you guys.

              Nick Mazur 25/06/18 10:37 AM Reply


        • No worries.

          Josh, as Bacchus was the god of wine I would like to send you a few bottles of something as well. Send me an email of what you fancy and where to have them sent.

          martin colwell 25/06/18 8:07 AM Reply


      • whats your monthly target by the way Martin? Shaiyzar tipped by another company I use. Good luck today

        Paul Ebrey 25/06/18 8:38 AM Reply


        • I have an annual target of £30K but I like to try to hit at least £2,500 each month to level it out but it does not work like that, it is up and down sometimes. I try to achieve a 15% profit on turnover.

          martin colwell 25/06/18 9:38 AM Reply


          • must have a chat with you Martin and look at your breakdowns, my target is 5% profit on turnover and see how you use your strategies. Fascinating stuff!, £2.5k a month is very impressive

            Paul Ebrey 25/06/18 12:19 PM Reply


            • You can get me at mcolwell1959@aol.com .

              martin colwell 25/06/18 12:31 PM Reply


              • Martin,
                May I also get in touch regarding staking plans?
                Cheers
                Andy

                Andy M 25/06/18 5:28 PM Reply


    • Cracking picks yesterday Nick.
      Hugh

      alpha2 25/06/18 6:16 AM Reply


    • Another great pick Nick
      Glamorous Rock whoooosh

      Darren 25/06/18 6:14 PM Reply


    • Bloody ell Nick!! What’s going on??? Well done mate !Top Tipping

      Chris Albin 25/06/18 6:14 PM Reply


    • Bang. Great luck Nick. Went according to your analysis superb. Very well done and thank you

      Paul Ebrey 25/06/18 6:14 PM Reply


  • AW results for w/c 18 June
    Staked 27pts, Profit 13.3pts, ROI 49.2% or £66.50 to £5 stakes

    Wolves tomorrow evening. Qualifiers as follows:
    5.50 Belabour 10/1
    6.20 Becker 4/1 & Billy Booth 4/1
    6.50 Haadhir 5/1
    7.20 Kaaba Stone 6/1
    7.50 The Kings Steed 8/1 & Black Truffle 4/1
    8.20 Poppy Love 10/1
    8.50 Beatbybeatbybeat 9/1 & Shamlan 10/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck.

    Ken McKenzie 24/06/18 9:31 PM Reply


    • Well done on the profit Ken.

      Paul Ebrey 25/06/18 12:55 PM Reply


  • Just thought I would chip in with a Bryony Frost treble
    Amber Flush 4.45 S an old Nicks tip 20/1 place lto….16s
    Cubswin 4.15 S…..4s
    Little Windmill 5.45 S…18s
    The latter a Neil King double she rode Milansbar for him in the National. I think.

    No logic to them apart from a follow to a Nicks tip.
    Thanks Nick for Sundays winner.

    Mike

    mickeydee 24/06/18 10:27 PM Reply


    • Nice one Mike. Cubswin 11/2.

      Ken McKenzie 25/06/18 4:21 PM Reply


  • no qualifiers today
    results update 31 selections 1 wins,5 places, staked 31 pts returns 14.25 pts down 16.75 pts.
    one that caught my eye though was Mitebeall Forluck Southwell 5-45, has won 4 times over fences(Ireland) and hasn’t run in a hurdle race for 4 years, James Bowen booked. can’t work out what he’s doing in this race so i’ve had a couple of quid ew @25’s just in case.

    martin whittle 25/06/18 1:19 AM Reply


  • Outstanding again from Nick, when do we start building the statue at RTP towers?!

    One I noticed yesterday in the 2 year old race at Windsor: Meraki. Candy has had decent success at Windsor in June with his 2 year olds in the past. He also had a first time out winner A couple of weeks ago with Fran B onboard that day as well. In a line through Dark angel who have reasonable success over c&d. The trainer seems to like the horse, saying “he’s the sharpest one they have” so fingers x for a good run at 10/1. Hannon looks to have a couple of useful ones in there too, but his seem to get better after a run (although they do win FTO) and he feels the fav is better suited to 7F eventually

    James P 25/06/18 8:31 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    4.00 Chepstow Jaalboot
    4.45 Southwell Simply Lucky
    8.50 Wolverhampton Beatbybeatbybeat dropped in class to grade 6 and she won over CD in April.

    colin leafe 25/06/18 9:53 AM Reply


  • Just catching up with the posts I missed over my long weekend off and it’s clear it was a weekend to not miss with a 50/1 winner from Josh and Nick getting some great results, but that’s the game I guess. Back to today, I have decided to include my Eyecatchers (as you could call them, denoted with “Eye” below) as they have been proven to get results.

    Chris M Selections:
    14:45 Southwell – The Wicket Chicken (10/3 Bet365, 3/1 gen) GG
    14:30 Chepstow – Rippling Waters (11/4 gen) Eye
    16:00 Chepstow – Dalness Express (11/2 gen) RTP
    16:45 Southwell – West to Crossgales (6/1 gen) Eye
    19:10 Windsor – Mostly Green (14/1 gen) Eye
    19:10 Windsor – Spennys Lass (10/1 gen) Eye
    20:00 Kilbeggan – Robin Des Foret (10/11 gen) GG
    20:30 Kilbeggan – Steel Wave (7/2 gen) GG

    Re-Cap w/c 18/6/18:
    16 bets – 5 winners
    S/R: 31.25 %
    ROI: 21.25 %
    P/L: +3.4 pts

    Overall:
    40 bets – 9 winnners and 1 N/R
    S/R: 23.08 %
    ROI: 2.13 %
    P/L: +0.83 pts

    Chris M 25/06/18 10:02 AM Reply


  • Have left the 14:15 to Nick, agree with the favourite being dodgy, would do SUPER LUNAR if i was forced.
    16:00 Chepstow
    MONARCH MAID 11/2 gen 1pt ew
    Will appreciate the galloping track and front runners do well here, so long as she`s at the front she could burn these off.
    MOOROVERTHEBRIDGE 8/1 gen 1pt ew
    Will also appreciate this more galloping track and with useful apprentice Theodore Ladd on board, who is unbeaten on the filly, she should go well.
    16:45 Southwell
    BRAVE HELIOS 6/1 gen 1pt ew
    Champion jockey Dickie on board, who always rides this track well, has been tumbling down the rankings and should be spot on for this, like Suegioo yesterday I believe this is his to lose.
    EARCOMESTORM 8/1 gen 1pt ew
    with Sam TD on board should run creditable and ran well over c and d lto, for a long way, so hopefully remembers the way round, can go close i feel.
    17:15 Southwell
    TIKANRUN 9/1 gen 1pt ew
    It may pay to look elsewhere, but, this one i believe due to his speed ratings from winter Mr Hammond has brought him back here for a confidence boost, at least after this he will know his level.
    KIWAYU 16/1 gen 1pt ew
    20lb lower than when last winning, could be all the petrol has gone out of the tank, let`s hope there is a little bit left to get us at least a place here.

    Good luck with whatever you back today!

    Stewart 25/06/18 10:28 AM Reply


    • Just me backing the 16/1 > 13/2 winner then?

      Stewart 25/06/18 8:40 PM Reply


  • Southwell 445 – Beremo 9/1 Skybet
    I think that horse is not in a bad shape, its nicely handicapped and the going should suit. I am hoping for a good run so its 1p EW

    maz 25/06/18 10:40 AM Reply


  • Tip – 5.45 Sou, Havisham, 1 point each way at 10/1 BOG. Won a bad race on his handicap debut. Jockey a bonus in such a race and she knows the horse.
    Despite my success this month my tips are not going well and are minus 18.25 points in June.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 25/06/18 10:45 AM Reply


    • We were on last time. That 10/1 looks considerably more appealing than the 9/2 last night.

      Nick Mazur 25/06/18 2:12 PM Reply


  • It’s good to see happy posts…..i’m just out of dock again and catching up….It’s good to see you all in form…
    I’ll put the mockers on them now. lol.
    Will post my cheque off to your addy now Josh,,,,
    Wow, Bachus was a biggie. lol

    BOL all…Tony mc.

    tonymc 25/06/18 1:18 PM Reply


    • cheers Tony… haha, it was indeed! About time I threw another one in thought, the 40/1 Scottish National winners was starting to fade from memory!! 🙂 And I hadn’t contributed much, tipping wise, since end of April. Still, I think that’s 3 x 50/1 winners tipped on here since I started, two of them this year. Still, my Festival tipping is a high risk game, I need to get that daily notes total north of +50 and ticking along if I can. On we go
      Josh

      Josh 25/06/18 1:49 PM Reply


  • Having some joy with one of my LTO handicap hurdle winners micros, but they’ll probably turn to sh*t if I post them up!

    Anyway…

    4.45 Southwell – Simply Lucky
    5.45 Southwell – Havisham
    5.45 Southwell – Mr Mafia

    1pt each at betfair SP

    traf69 25/06/18 2:49 PM Reply


  • And these…
    5.15 Southwell – Ilewindelilah (trainer’s only runner)
    8.10 Windsor – Morning Skye (class dropper)

    traf69 25/06/18 3:01 PM Reply


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