Fair to say it’s been a testing week so far, and I’ve decided to focus on an easy handicap to dig me out of a hole! One 10/1 winner for a ‘race in focus’ being the main highlight but those are running at -3 points if you backed all those I focussed on. The ‘through the card’ has been awful in truth and I’ve spectacularly failed to use my own stats/pointers (which have thrown up numerous winners) to land on the right ones. I’ve got the top 3/4 in the market wrong all week…taking on the wrong ones, going with the wrong ones, and I’ve got Aidan O’Brien wrong all week also! Still, some positives in the stats approach, just not my own reading of the races. I don’t like being rubbish at something, which means there is plenty of work to do moving forwards to improve. Still, we have one more day…
On we go..
Race In Focus
10/10 ran at track LTO: Ascot/Haydock/York/Goodwood/Newmarket (both tracks) / Curragh
(other tracks 0/104,11p)
8/10 aged 4 or 5
- 6+ : 2/109,15p
8/10 yet to run above Group 3 (8/159,23p)
- Had run at G2/1: 2/106,16p
8/10 ran in race with 12+ runners LTO
- 11 or fewer: 1/93,11p
7/10 placed on their last start (7/103,19 p)
- Top 2 in weights: 0/26,4p
- Yet to run over 7f+ : 1/51,7p
- 0 distance wins: 0/38,7p
- Ran over 5f LTO: 1/54,9p
- Ran in race with 7 or fewer runners LTO: 0/36,3p
- Horse second LTO: 6/37,9p
Trainers: No trainer has won this more than once in last 10 years.
Shortlist: Well, focussing on 4 or 5 year olds, yet to run in a G1, ran at those tracks listed above, and has 1+ distance win…leaves 8/69,13p, +40 BFSP… it is tentative, and clearly may miss the winner..although the shortlist includes the fav, which looks likely to be sent off the shortest price for this race certainly in the last decade…
Dreamfield / Gilgamesh / Tommy Taylor / Bacchus / Flying Pursuit
Thoughts… my EW pins have landed on Gilgamesh / Bacchus and Ice Age. Hopefully they give me a run for my money, we shall see. The fav is clearly well fancied but we can hope he doesn’t win, and with any luck a couple of mine can make the top 5 to ensure a decent enough return, and some entertainment
Gilgamesh… like Bacchus, hits my trends/stats shortlist of sorts. It’s a tentative race on that front but I’ve gone with two on it. This one is unexposed, progressive, in form, stays further, and I’d like to think will run his race. He will want a strong pace to aim at here but he does tank through his races somewhat and this stiff 6f/fast pace may be ideal. IF he runs his race, and gets luck in running, I’d be disappointed were he not in the top 5, and would limit the damage somewhat, to -2 points..if the other two fall out the back of the TV…which , I would like to think is unlikely with…
Ice Age...doesn’t show on my stats/trends but he just looks a solid horse likely to give me a run for my money, who looked around 10-12 points too big to my eye. Yes there is a chance he is now at the ceiling of his ability but it isn’t impossible there is still room for some improvement. He won a shade cosily to my eye LTO, which in part was probably down to getting an easy enough lead. But, he will be up there here, and it isn’t impossible the jockey can go his own pace, to a point. If he gets his fractions right I’d like to think he’d be up there pitching come the death, and could cling on for a place at worst. Conditions looks fine although it’s his first run here, but he does stay 7f which is no bad thing over this CD with a big field. This one tries and while a handful may be better handicapped and go past him, I thought he looked overpriced with a 1 point EW mindset. If he could finish in the top 5 that would be +2 on the race, and I clearly think there is some sort of chance he could go all the way. You can’t say for certainty as yet that he can’t win from this mark.
Bacchus… a bit of a poke but we can dream of a place, and who knows… this one shows up on the trends shortlist and is 50/1..and I can make some sort of case..he is lightly raced and there should be plenty more to come from him this year. He stays further and while he may get outpaced, these conditions should be fine for him to run his race, if he is tuned up. Meehan can ready them after a break, horses in this race returning after 240+ days off are 1/12,3p in the last 10 years, 2/16,5p last 20 renewals. The trainer is 2/7,3p in CD handicaps and Crowley/Meehan are 5/9,5p in handicaps, in recent years, which I thought was interesting. Clearly he may need it, but he won on seasonal reappearance last year and it may be the time to catch him. He looked most intriguing of the monster priced ones. Hopefully he is staying on at the end and can grab a place, and you just never know!
All three of mind are in the middle section and they will have options… the middle has appeared to be the place to be, but then there have been winners everywhere and it may just be pace. I’m finding the track hard to read so will leave it to the jockeys…some could go low, high, or stay gun barrel straight. There is a chance the fav is on the wrong side, which again is a small chink, but clearly I won’t fall off my seat if he destroys them all…but he isn’t even a price to have a saver on.
Anyway, do that as you please. I’m hopeful of getting a run for my money from them all.
Stats Report Qualifiers
2.30 – Cardini (1)
3.05 – Crystal Ocean (3., 12/1<)
3.40 – Isle of Innisfree + North Wind + Van Beethoven (all 1.) / Kessaar (2.)
4.20 – Intelligence Cross + Merchant Navy + Spirit of Valour (all 1.) / Harry Angel (9. 20/1<) /
5.00 – Tis Marvellous (9. 20/1<)
5.35 – Uber Cool (9. 20/1<)
3.40 – Isle Of Innisfree / Van Beethovan
That will be all for today.
GL with any bets.