Members Daily Post: 23/06/18 (complete)

TIPS x3, Section 1 (comp), test zone, Really Super , recent tips

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Redcar 

2.05 – Sunrise (micro age) ES+G3 6/1 S3A 

3.15 – Hajjam (m age) ES+H1 I1 G3 5/1 S1 S2 S3A# S4 

 

Ayr

4.50 – Eye Of The Storm (m runs) ES+I3 16/1 S3A 

5.25 – 

Star Cracker (m TJC) I3 G3 13/2 

Danish Duke (m dist) G3 12/1 

 

Ascot 

5.00 – 

Lancelot Du Lac (m class) 40/1 

Dreamfield (m age/runs) w2 w1 14,30 3/1 

 

Lingfield

7.00 – Light of Air (m dist) G3 7/1 

7.30 – Prost (all hncps) 14H3 G3 5/1 S5 

 

Haydock

6.15 – Fletfoot Jack (m age) H3 G3 9/1 S5 

6.45 – Island Of Life (all hncps) w1 H3 13/8 

8.15 – 

Ghayyar (m dist) w2 H3 G1 4/1 S2

Lamloon (m age) H1 I3 G3  11/4 S2 S4 

 

Newmarket (July) 

None. 

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JUMPS

Perth

2.35 – 

Little Stevie (hncp c)  4/1 

Zolfo (m TJC) H3 I3 2/1 

3.10- 

Green Zone (hncp h.+ days run) H3 I1 15/2 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Gentleman Jamer (m dist) I3 9/2 

3.45- 

Minella Scamp (all hncps + m TJC) w114H1 I3 3/1 

Always On The Run (hncp c) I3 5/1  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

The Clock Leary (hncp c) I3 9/1  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

4.25 – 

Tangolan (all hncps + m TJC) 14 15/2 

Reivers Loge (m TJC) H3 13/2 

5.40 – 

Costa Percy (m TJC) 8/1 

Morning With Ivan (m TJC) w2 w1 H1 I3 3/1 

6.10 – Honeychile Ryder (m dist) H3 I3 11/1 S2 S5 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 12/147,45p, -7)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +105.5)

NOTES – none today. 

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FESTIVAL TIPS: ROYAL ASCOT 2018

(running total = 1/15,1p, -4)

5.00 Ascot 

Gilgamesh – 1 point EW – 12/1 (gen)

Bacchus – 1 point EW – 50/1 (bet365/WH/BetfS/PP/BV)

Ice Age – 1 point EW – 28/1 (gen)

(6 point outlay, search around for placed terms, 1/4 5, 1/5 5 and 1/5 6 places around..I’ll declare results to 5 places…hopefully I’m declaring something!) 

Well, it’s go hard or go home and I suppose depending on how I read this race/the result, may determine if I use the Festival bank again on the Flat. It’s hard not to be scared of the favourite here and that has influenced my staking. But, he is incredibly short here and while clearly the most exciting, and could still have bucket loads in hand, this will be a new experience for one so lightly raced- with any luck the occasion may get to him pre race, we shall see. So, we could be playing for places…

Gilgamesh… like Bacchus hits my trends/stats shortlist of sorts on the free post. It is a tentative race on that front but I’ve gone with two on it. This one is unexposed, progressive, in form, stays further, and I’d like to think will run his race. He will want a strong pace to aim at here but he does tank through his races somewhat and this stiff 6f/fast pace may be ideal. IF he runs his race, and gets luck in running, I’d be disappointed were he not in the top 5, and would limit the damage somewhat, to -2 points..if the other two fall out the back of the TV…which , I would like to think is unlikely with…

Ice Age...doesn’t show on my stats/trends but he just looks a solid horse likely to give me a run for my money, who looked around 10-12 points too big to my eye. Yes there is a chance he is now at the ceiling of his ability but it isn’t impossible there is still room for some improvement. He won a shade cosily to my eye LTO, which in part was probably down to getting an easy enough lead. But, he will be up there here, and it isn’t impossible the jockey can go his own pace, to a point. If he gets his fractions right I’d like to think he’d be up there pitching come the death, and could cling on for a place at worst. Conditions looks fine although it’s his first run here, but he does stay 7f which is no bad thing over this CD with a big field. This one tries and while a handful may be better handicapped and go past him, I thought he looked overpriced with a 1 point EW mindset. If he could finish in the top 5 that would be +2 on the race, and I clearly think there is some sort of chance he could go all the way. You can’t say for certainty as yet that he can’t win from this mark. 

Bacchus… a bit of a poke but we can dream of a place, and who knows… this one shows up on the trends shortlist and is 50/1..and I can make some sort of case..he is lightly raced and there should be plenty more to come from him this year. He stays further and while he may get outpaced, these conditions should be fine for him to run his race, if he is tuned up. Meehan can ready them after a break, horses in this race returning after 240+ days off are 1/12,3p in the last 10 years, 2/16,5p last 20 renewals. The trainer is 2/7,3p in CD handicaps and Crowley/Meehan are 5/9,5p in handicaps, in recent years, which I thought was interesting. Clearly he may need it, but he won on seasonal reappearance last year and it may be the time to catch him. He looked most intriguing of the monster priced ones. Hopefully he is staying on at the end and can grab a place, and you just never know! 

All three of mind are in the middle section and they will have options… the middle has appeared to be the place to be, but then there have been winners everywhere and it may just be pace. I’m finding the track hard to read so will leave it to the jockeys…some could go low, high, or stay gun barrel straight. There is a chance the fav is on the wrong side, which again is a small chink, but clearly I won’t fall off my seat if he destroys them all…but he isn’t even a price to have a saver on. 

Anyway, do that as you please. I’m hopeful of getting a run for my money from them all. 

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Recent Tips(from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 3/20,8p, +16.5) 

2.40 Red – Tan Arabiq (2nd run) 

3.15 Red – Daniels Flyer (1st run) 

 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< ) 

3.45 Perth- Minella Scamp 

Irish Angles

3.25 Gowr – Glamorous Nellie 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Really Super…I’ll be at Newmarket on Saturday, to see her run. I think, with guests, there are 18 of us down to attend. Newmarket July appear to be rather generous with their complimentary badges, giving us 10, and £13.50 for each extra, not bad. In truth, I’ve gone for the ‘sh*t or bust’ strategy, and foolishly may have had the biggest bet on the nose I’ve ever wagered on a horse. It’s idiotic really, given she’s still a maiden, but we know what’s under the bonnet. But, don’t follow my lead!! However, I wouldn’t put you off a 2 point bet, whatever your 1 point is. 8s/9s is silly. In my mind this may be her last chance on the flat, before we send her back over timber. On what we think she has under the bonnet and how she works at home, how her earlier Flat form has worked out, we think she is thrown in off this mark- IF we can find the key. And that is a big IF but Amy will at some point. Super just gallops, and stays. So, the plan will be to make plenty of use of her. She may do too much on the front end, not like being in front for so long (if indeed we get that luxury at any point), but we won’t be left cursing by getting it wrong in a tactically run race. The others are going to have to stay and I hope at some point have to pass us. So, it’s exciting. She could bolt up by 5L. She could run into a place again, or get stuffed if doing too much. She may get outpaced late over this trip again,if we can’t get away from them. She’d stay 2m4f+ around Ponte I suspect. I just hope she is leading as they enter, then leave, the July course dip. I don’t think anything will be catching her if she is. The fav does look solid, and has hacked up off this mark before, so that 10lb rise may not stop him.  But I’d be a tad despondent if she doesn’t go close here. If that does happen, at least we know she’ll hack up in a 2m7f Worcester handicap hurdle at some point. A game for dreamers 🙂 

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ASOCT  DAY 5

Stats Report Qualifiers

ROYAL ASCOT STATS REPORT HERE>>> 

Trainers/jockeys

2.30 – Cardini (1) 

3.05 – Crystal Ocean (3., 12/1<) 

3.40 – Isle of Innisfree + North Wind + Van Beethoven (all 1.) / Kessaar (2.) 

4.20 – Intelligence Cross + Merchant Navy + Spirit of Valour (all 1.) / Harry Angel (9. 20/1<) / 

5.00 – Tis Marvellous (9. 20/1<) 

5.35 – Uber Cool (9. 20/1<) 

Sires 

3.40 – Isle Of Innisfree / Van Beethovan 

 

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That’s the lot for today. GL with any bets, 

Josh 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

45 Responses

  1. Good luck at Newmarket Josh. It looks a decent little race and the favourite may be an improver? However I have had some 9/1 in support, but you are correct in that it does not look a race to have a big bet in.

    Royal Ascot has been very hard I think? My best day so far this week on Friday with a winner and some places. One day to go – Lay Harry Angel? Or if he can overcome his Ascot hoodoo the 3/1 may look pretty big? I will go each way on The Tin Man at 8/1 to repeat last year’s success.

    Good luck.

    1. hmm.. has run 28 odd times I think, so he’s hardly unexposed…but bolted up the last day, and clearly in great form, and has won snuggly from this mark before. So, clearly no shock if he builds on that. The Ryan horse is interesting over this trip and may improve for it. I’d like to think we have the strongest stayer in the race, which is why it’s important we make it a test- she lacks a turn of gear I think..this trip, albeit on a galloping track, is prob the shortest she wants on the flat, and in order to stay up there pressing, she may have to do too much…but we would rather have a blowout by doing too much on the front/kicking early, than holding up and getting done by a change of pace 3f out or so, losing 5l, then running on for 3rd.
      We shall see! She has plenty of ability and has wins in here, in both codes, we think! But, until she actually wins a race, (never been out of top 4 when completing) there will always be a niggle!
      Josh

  2. A couple not far away from winning but will take that any day of the week. Busy one tomorrow. I might get a chance to do some write ups in the morning.

    Kings Gift Ayr Saturday 15:30 1pt e/w
    The Tin Man Ascot Saturday 16:20 1pt e/w
    Tupi Ascot Saturday 17:00 1pt e/w
    Danzeno Ascot Saturday 17:00 1pt e/w
    Mont Kiara Newmarket Saturday 17:20 1pt e/w
    Maghaweer Newmarket Saturday 17:55 1pt e/w

  3. Started so well yesterday and quickly went downhill after that….
    Onto today
    15:40
    QUEEN OF BERMUDA 7/1 365 1pt ew
    has won well over C and D and has the speed to burn these off, value at 7/1 and is tough as a rhino, plenty more to come.
    VAN BEETHOVEN 9/1 gen 1pt ew
    Draw isn`t the best, but, should be up with the pace and can capitalize from man of the moment Ryan Moore on board.
    16:20
    LIBRISA BREEZE 11/1 spbet 1pt ew
    Cannot choose between this one and The Tin Man, they will both be to the fore and hopefully will pull away from the rest to battle it out, as they have done a couple of times in the past.
    THE TIN MAN 8/1 1pt ew
    please see above.

    more to follow.

    1. As I’m on train to meet up with some of my old army buddies, can only do tips sorry.
      17:00
      GROWL 14/1 1pt ew
      TUPI 16/1 1pt ew
      MAJOR JUMBO 1pt ew
      17:35
      PALLASATOR 9/1 1pt ew
      COUNT OCTAVE 6/1 1pt ew

      Good luck with whatever you back today!

      1. some for info
        A 3.30 – Mutarakez, 1st noted 28/10 up@8, 6th run W@15/2
        R 4.35 – Al Khan, 1st noted 21/11 up@11, 3rd run W@6
        P 5.40 – The Compeller, 1st noted 14/2 up@20, 3rd run W@15/2
        P 6.10 – Budarri, 1st noted 8/3 up@16, 4 runs since 2x2nds and 2 xup

  4. COLINS BETS
    Ascot
    5.00 Brian The Snail
    Ayr
    4.50 Star Of The East
    Newmarket
    3.20 Simply Breathless
    4.40 Gold Filgree
    5.20 Rockies Spirit
    Perth
    4.25 Shipwreck

    1. Colin,

      Just a quick note to say well done yesterday. Thoroughly deserved. You have stayed remarkably level-headed over the last few weeks and it is great to see it heading in the other direction.

      As for Nick- nothing to say but pure class.

      Cheers

      Ben

      1. Hi Ben
        Thanks for your kind comments,should have been well ahead in May and so should June tried to cut the bets down sadly missed some big winners 50/1 14/1 12/1 14/1 and 13/2 trying to look for to many negatives,so you will see more bets again in the future and larger profits all being well.

        1. I had the same problem Colin. When things are not going your way you start to doubt your system. I’ve also been posting more qualifiers more in line with my original strategy and lo and behold 4 winners pop up. Keep the faith!

  5. Hi Josh, when things are quieter next week please can you advise how best to deal with multiple selections in the same race from the regular tipsters I follow. This week I have landed up backing more than I am happy with for fear of missing the winner! Would I be better to read it all, then select one or two and take it on the chin if another one wins? Interested in others’ thoughts on this, eg do you have a max number of horses to back in the same race? Thanks!

    1. Hi Jim,…well, a big Festival will always cause issues if you follow a handful of tipsters… one option is to treat everyone separately, with a separate bank, and just follow as you would and not think about the multiple bets…you have to view profit in terms of the service, rather than the race. Of course, its made worse/a problem, if who you follow all have a bad week say. The other options the depend on if you are happy not to profit as you should have done if a big winner and you didn’t have your usual stake on… the options there I suppose are to set a budget for said race, if who you follow have all landed on the same race…and in that context, I’d save my biggest bets for the biggest odds selections, with savers etc say on the shorter odds one.
      Option 1 is preferred, but betting has to be about enjoyment of the sport and if you find yourself going past comfort levels on one race, you should modify it…provided you can live with a biggie coming in and you not having usual stake on say.
      There is no right or wrong and everyone is different with such things.
      Tipster wise…I follow my own stuff obviously, Nick religiously and SP2A, while dipping into others on here every now and then if I have time to look at horses etc… and I have followed them all with same stakes as per usual… which has meant the odd painful result at RA, but that’s how I play it, and just have to live with the losses on said races.
      That’s probably why I can’t wait to get to Newmarket and have a drink or five haha,
      Josh

    2. I think Josh has covered it fairly but just to add this often happens to me given I have a portfolio and the key to forgot about the day to day results and look at each tipster on their own merit backing as advised. The one thing I do to help is avoid any tipsters that just tip on festivals and Saturdays and doesn’t on any random day.

      1. This depends on how systematic you are? The simplest thing to do would be to back all tips that are relevant, regardless of what race they are in. However if you do that you have the staking issue, how much to bet on each one?
        Really you should only have a max of four sources for selections which reduces this problem.
        You can also just use your own judgement but that takes away the systematic nature of how you would operate and it becomes dicey on which selections to go with.
        I approach it bu being clear headed on my number of selections in a day and have a staking plan based upon price and number of runners in the race. But I have to do this because of the amounts I bet, otherwise I am well into four figures on a certain day.

        Simple processes and clarity are wise in these situations.

        Tips – two today – The Tin Man 1 point each way and Blue De Vega 1 point each way.

        Good luck out there.

    3. Hi Jim
      My reply to Ben covers the reason you have to back multiple bets,over the past couple of months tried streamline my bets to reduce the amount of bets sadly you always seem to leave out the winners.
      If you do not have a suitable bank then do not follow anyone’s bets till you do and the bank should not be used for anything else after a 50/1 winner to easy to take some out and then sods law a losing run comes and your confidence goes along with your reduced bank,only take money out when your original bank as doubled.

  6. Hands up if you thought Queally gave The Tin Man a horror ride.

    I know you win some lose some but that was yak.

    1. Hand up! Plenty of room as well to get there earlier.

      Ups and downs of racing. Hope some of you were on Bacchus at 50/1 to get over any losses previously.

  7. WHOOSH!!!

    Well. That’s a good way to end the week 🙂

    Really Super ran flat as a pancake… 11 days after what must have been a tough race. Nothing in bonnet.

    That has lifted the mood.

    Lovely!

    Josh

    1. Josh take a bow after that 59.42 on the machine,fantastic.

      You are not running away with the owners syndrome with rose tinted glasses,if you had a share in a Scarborough donkey could win a race not having a go been there and done it,my last share in one ended up going to Kuwait told us to a riding school no doubt ended up on someones plate,and she had won 3 races out of 5 one season including one at Cheltenham not the Festival but she went backwards the next season.

    1. Boom Boom!!!! Had the 50/1!!!!

      Well done Josh. The good and the bad all in one day! Hope you got your Really Super money back on Bacchus?

      1. Ha, I got my Super money back on the 11/4 winner of next at Newmarket, which was silly…but then I was playing with my ‘owners pot’ from my £25 EW on Blessed when she won at 16s Chelmsford haha.

        You know that £20 is my standard 1 point on my tips, so £20 EW. And then I read Meehans comments o Racing Post, after I tipped him, and threw £5 more at BFSP… 59.00 As well as 2 losers, and other bets from tips I follow etc. Anyway. Copped £1400 or so on that race I think. It will do.

        But it isn’t the money as you well know. Just pleased to solve a sodding puzzle at Ascot and get a decent price in doing so. My tipping head needed that after a dull couple of months post Jumps Festivals…but that’s how I play the game.

  8. Wow 50/1 winner, brilliant tipping Josh!! Thanks for all the advice, after reading comments I added my small bet on the winner, happy days!

  9. Well done Josh with Bacchus. Out of the innumerable tips Ive seen for the 5pm I had a gut feeling about that one. Fingers crossed for the following:

    Flying Pursuit @ 80/1
    L’Attesa @ 250/1
    Fun Mac @ 14/1
    Lancelot Du Lac @ 66/1
    Bacchus @ 50/1
    Round Robin/2 Play Parlays, 6 bets * £1 E/W

  10. Well as it was Bacchus who won it’s totally compulsory that we all drink copious amounts of alcohol to celebrate tonight! I may have start already.

  11. Pissed off. Had a poor week and always back the Josh tips but was busy today and my last look at the site must have been before they were put on. Sods law.

  12. Brilliant Josh, I had already backed Gilgamesh and Ice Age before reading your review, thought stuff it, nothing to lose bar a few more quid on Bacchus, watching the race they must have heard me all the way down to Royal Ascot from Scotland as I was roaring it on, didn’t think it was going to get there, I was on my knees in front of the telly as it crossed the line with the girlfriend standing behind me laughing her arse off at my theatrics, saved my week as I’d had possibly my worst Royal Ascot in many years up to that point, keep up the good work

  13. Tremendous result with Bacchus josh, very well done. Some great insight on multiple tipsters too guys. A few days off from tomorrow for me, mentally I’m exhausted from ascot and need to do my racing admin, profit and losses, etc.

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