Royal Ascot 2018: Day 1 (complete)

Royal Ascot Day 1… race in focus/stats report+qualifiers/through the card selections

Intro

This week the majority of my Royal Ascot content will be posted in the free posts, including qualifiers from the stats report below, that day’s ‘race in focus’ and plenty of other pointers. Unlike the Jumps Festivals where there are tips galore, there won’t be too much tipping content as such, but I will highlight what I like most. This isn’t a serious punting week for me but more one to have some fun on decent priced horses for ‘fun stakes’. By all means set yourself a daily budget that you are happy to lose. As with most of my content across the blog it is about providing you with a unique insight and information, to use as you please, mixed with my own vies. With any luck I can highlight a few decent priced winners and no doubt there will be plenty in the comments also. 

ROYAL ASCOT STATS REPORT HERE>>> 

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DAY 1 

Race In Focus 

5.00 Ascot Stakes

10/192, 41 placed horses (inc wins)

10/10 had won over 2m or further

  • 0/54,5p had not
  • 6/28,8p had won between 2m5f-3m (no such quals this year)

10/10 had 3+ career wins

  • 0-2: 0/65,8p

9/10 had 2+ handicap wins

  • 0-1: 1/83,13p

9/10 priced 12/1 or shorter SP (9/71,23p)

  • 10/10, 20/1 or shorter
  • 22/1 + SP, 0/71,6p

9/10 had run at Group/Grade 3 or higher

  • 1/101,20p had yet to run G3 or higher

8/10 had won at least once on last 3 starts (8/91,30p)

8/10 had run over 2m4f or further

  • 2/91,19p had yet to do so

6/10 had won LTO (6/46,20p)

Other

  • Group/Grade 1+2 winners: 3/12,5p
  • 3 or fewer handicap runs: 0/30,3p
  • 0-1 places in handicaps: 0/36,5p
  • 6/10,2

Trainers:

W Mullins (3/9,4p) 1 win (Byrnes/Jonjo O’Neill/J Chapple-Hyam/D Pipe/Suzy Smith/N Henderson/J P Fahey) (9/10 winners trained by predominantly National Hunt trainers)

 

Shortlist: focusing on the 10/10 and 9/10 stats leaves… (ignoring price for now, but 12/1< should be marked up) 

42 runners / 8 winners (inc last 5) / 13 places (inc wins) / +23 / +31 BFSP

Coeur De Lion / Whiskey Sour / Lagostovegas / Look My Way / Mirsaale / Hassle

Thoughts…

 

I’m looking at those nearer the top of the market, a focus on Mullins to a point, and those that have won at G3+ level before…at the odds then…

Whiskey Sour  12/1 / Meri Devie 11/1  / Lagostovegas 11/1 / Danny Day 11/1

Three for Mullins there who tick plenty of boxes to my eyes, with my preference for the first two I think. One for Stoute also who ticks one of my micros as below, provided he doesn’t take a walk in the market. I’ll spread some fun money darts around those for interest, +8 points assured if one can win! It looks like Moore had the choice and has picked a Mullins horse I haven’t mentioned. Given his profile then anything could happen, but he has stamina and fitness to prove…given his trainer, neither may be a problem,but in that context they are short enough.

 

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Stats Report ‘Qualifiers’ 

Trainer/jockeys 

2.30 Limato (8..code as per report above) / Zanderland (9., 20/1< SP,)

3.05 –  Sergei Prokofiev (1.) / The Irish Rover (1 + 10) / Calyx (2) / Getchagetchagetcha (9., 20/1< sp)

3.40 –  Washington DC (1) / Battle Of Jericho (1) / Declaration of Peace (1) / Different League (1) / Blue Point (4. angle 2)

4.20 – /

5.00 – DannyDay (3., 12/1< SP) / Kloud Gate (9., 20/1<)

5.35 – Yucatan (1., ‘listed’) / Kidmenever (7) / Fabricate (8)

Sires

Scatt Daddy

3.05 – Sergei Prokofiev

3.40 – Lady Aurelia

4.20 – Kings Shield

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Other Notes/Pointers/Thoughts

Trainer Pointers

Those with 2 or more winners in said race, with a runner…

2.30 – Benbatl (6/19,6p) / Deauville + Rhododendron (3/18,7p)

3.05 – Sergei Prokofiev + The Irish Rover (8/30,13p)

3.40 – /

4.20 – Gustav Klimpt + Threeandfourpence + U S Navy Flag (7/42,18p)

5.00 – Whiskey Sour + Chelkar + Lagostovegas + Stratum + Meri Devie (3/94p)

5.35 – Monarchs Glen + Muntahaa (3/10,5p) / Mirage Dancer + Autocratic (2/13,7p)

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‘Through The Card Selections’ 

For minor interest/entertainment, those that looked of interest to my eyes, mainly using info on this page and some other analysis using ratings/pace/class etc…let’s see how they go…

2.30 – Deauville EW / Recoletos

3.05 – Cosmic Law / The Irish Rover

3.40 – Battaash

4.20 – US Navy Flag / Tip Two Win / Kings Shield (change BFSP,just due to Scatt Daddy stats!)

5.00 – Race in focus, as above: Whiskey Sour / Meri Devie / Lagostovegas / Danny Day

5.35 – Yucatan / Mirage Dancer / Spark Plug EW

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Good luck with your bets, Josh

what do you fancy on Day 1 of Royal Ascot? 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. The Coventry Stakes Ascot 6f
    I won’t put up ratings bets as there will be so many tied at the top. I will simply list those that are joint top rated and give a shortlist, although I seem to be wasting bullets at the moment.

    1. Advertise, Blown By Wind, Calyx, Cosmic Law, I Am A Dreamer, Indigo Balance, Kuwait Station, Sergei Prokofiev, Shine So Bright, The Irish Rover.
    As I don’t want to bias myself before I see the ones that have evaded me so far it is hard to make choices. Calyx and Sergei P are clearly very talented and may blow the rest away so for value purposes my two are Advertise and The Irish Rover.
    Hugh

  2. GOLF BETS
    Travellers Championship
    Daniel Berger 1 point ew 33/1 1/5 7 BF 33/1 1/5 6 Unibet 888 33/1 1/4 5 BW Sporting Bet
    Finished tied 6th in the US Open and he has played here at TPC River Highlands only twice finishing 5th and 2nd.
    Xander Schauffele 1 point ew 40/1 1/5 8 PP 40/1 1/5 7 CO BO BFSB
    Finished tied 6th in the US Open and he played well here last year finishing 14th after finishing 5th in the US Open so a bold show is expected.

    Expect the 33/1 on Berger to shorten so get your bets on early.

      1. Hi Paul
        Bubba at 35/1 very good odds and yes he may well win,however not a fan of his or Webb Simpson to up and down for me and over the years never seem to get it right with those pair.
        Unlike Keith Elliott of old and the Racing Post and many more who will name up to 7 players in a tournament and if they have a 20/1 place they shout about it failing to mention the losers.
        I try to stick to two players per tournament sometimes three but rare and put them up on Tuesday mornings to try and get everyone the best prices available before most other tipsters who put up their bets on Wednesday,Sporting Life put their bets up on Tuesday morning but do not have a conflict over prices with them,and to be honest never look at their bets no more so do not know how they are doing,only concentrate on my bets be it Golf or Horse Racing.
        Football rare to bet do not enjoy 8/11 etc bets,have backed my team Derby County twice in the past few years at 66/1 and 100/1 collecting the place money twice,Turkey at 50/1 when they finished 3rd in the World Cup and were treated very harshly by the ref and the cheating Brazilians in both games against Brazil,then Greece in Portugal at 100/1 and England was 6/1 who a scraped through to the tournament with a late Beckham free kick,for me on the night Greece was the better side that is why backed them at 100/1 that is the list of my football bets.
        Not looked at this years World Cup so no idea but after Germany and Brazil both look vulnerable,impressed with Spain in their first game but the winners could be a shock team at a fair price.

        1. Looking at the golf as a little bit of fun and I spotted something at the Arkansas Championship on the ladies tour Stacy Lewis won twice and another 5 top ten finishes at the course and available at 100-1 with Bet365 seems a rather large price, probably missed something obvious but I am throwing a cheeky couple of quid at it. On another note at the WTA Mallorca tomorrow Lottner to beat Sevastova currently priced at 2-1 looks a little generous.

          1. Hi Mark
            Very interesting with your findings on
            Stacy Lewis in the Arkansas Championship at 100/1,she is expecting her first child and is only expected to play in four more tournaments,she i believe is a local Arkansas girl and as you say as an outstanding record at the course.
            Any Doctors reading this who can give an insight about pregnancy and golf is this why she is 100/1,however cannot see her playing here if she did not feel she can do herself justice for she is a major donor to Arkansas golf donating over $100,000.
            Do you wish to put your findings and you can use my findings up for anyone who wishes to have a bet.

          2. Hi Colin,

            Yes I went on the tournament website and there was a interview on there with Stacy and she was saying how important the tournament is to her and how she lives close by so is very relaxed etc, 100 poke I don’t mind too much if it all goes pear shaped but she has started well so will at least give me a run for my money

  3. Morning. Had a look at a few race trends and other stats for RA today.

    230 – Recoletos and Yoshida (ew)

    305 – Calyx and Sergei Prokofiev. Hard to get away from these, but a lot of unknowns

    340 Battaash and Mabs Cross (ew). Hard to oppose Lady Aurelia but the trends don’t support and I wonder if not progressed as much as others?

    420 Without Parole and Wootton (ew).

    500 Coeur de Lion and Look My Way (both ew with 5 places being paid)

    535 Laraib and Mirgae Dancer.

    GL with any bets today.

    1. haha… no that is important and essential! Only by doing that can you be freed from the shackles and focus on the bigger priced ones. If you are scared to lose X, it impacts on how you look at racing. And only by doing it that way can you still enjoy the week if it all ends in disaster! I’m positive, don’t you worry!
      Josh

  4. FOOTBALL

    Not a tip here as such but it’s interesting to look at the odds on teams scoring penalties in the world cup. There have been 7 scored in the first 14 games, the shortest odds on a team to score a penalty today is Colombia at 7s with bet365, Japan longest at 14s. I have backed every team to score a penalty today.

    Cue a non penalty day.

      1. Good shout Max,
        Had to have a go for beer money and plenty of arm exercise to look forward to over the next week or so.

    1. Fair fucks to ya Max-that really is an interesting angle mate.
      Well done with the two pens today.
      What prices did u get-and p&l?

  5. Really looking forward to the Ascot racing today, and my top rated horse and nap for the first day is Benbatl in the 2.30. Good each way bet Cosmic Law in the 3.05.
    Good luck to everyone today.
    Trevor.

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