Members Daily Post: 19/06/18 (Fest Tipx4/complete)

Festival Tips x4, Notes x4 (+write up), Section 1 (comp), test zone, Royal Ascot (stats report + top rated runners)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Thirsk

2.45 – 

Dangerous Lady (micro dist) 16/1  Up 20/1 

Dundunah (m age) I3 14/1 UP

3.55 – 

King Robert (m dist) I3 G3 9/1  UP

Zanetto (m dist) 14 10/1 

Silver Starlight (m class) 22/1  UP

5.45 – Acrux (m dist) w2 w1 H1 I1 6/1 S1 S6 

 

Brighton

5.40 – 

Jaalboot (all hncps 5 yrs, 3yo+ 5 yrs) 14 ES+ 15/2 S3A 

Tuscany (all hncps) G1 12/1 S6 

7.10 – 

Afandem (all hncps 5 yrs) 14 ES+I1 4/1 S3A 

Pride Of Angels (m going) H3 4/1 

8.40 – Swift Fox (m going) H3 7/2 

 

Beverley

9.00 – 

Clenymistra (4yo+ 5 yrs, + m class/age) ES+ I1 G3 4/1 S2 S3A#

Shearian (m dist) 14/1 

 

Ascot 

None. 

 

JUMPS

Stratford

2.55 – 

Sam Noir (hncp c + m TJC) 14,307/1 UP

Workbench (m class) 14,30 I3 11/1 S2 S5 UP

3.30 – 

Novis Adventus (hncp h + m dist) 14,30 10/1 S2 UP

Wells De Lune (m TJC) 14,30 I3 16/1 S2A S5  UP

5.20 – 

Kilcaragh Boy (m TJC) 9/1 UP

Taste The Wine (m class) 33/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 12/145,45p, -5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +109.5)

NOTES

2.45 T – Dangerous Lady – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)  UP 20/1 , a nothing run sadly. 

3.55 T – 

King Robert – 1 point win – 8/1 (PP/BetfS) 15/2 (gen) UP, blew start I think,but still poor. 

Silver Starlight – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/WH) 14/1 (gen) UP, low doesn’t seem the place to be today. High dominating on straight track. 

5.40 Bright – Tuscany – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 

that will be all for notes tips 08.52

 

Dangerous Lady – the first of a few pokes today and maybe it’s a day of reckoning given my inability at the moment to find an approach that is working with these flat notes horses. A case of nearly,but not quite there as yet. This one is lightly raced and drops from a C4 to a C6 here with Allan jumping back on. It’s also her first run in a race with older horses meaning she gets the weight-for-age allowance. Easterby is 8/42,14p with his 5f handicappers here, 3/12,5p with Allan on, in the last 5 years. It’s a bit of a poke but the hope is that these calmer waters and return to this track, where she ran ok as a juvenile, may spark some life into her. Her opening handicap mark was 69 and she now runs off 60 here in what seems an open enough race. I suspect she may set the tone for the day!

King Robert – the most solid of the picks today I think. He drops into a C4 for the first time in his career, having ran well at C2 and C3 level. He has placed twice over the CD from two runs and his run here two starts ago, on seasonal reappearance, was decent. A repeat of that would put him right in the mix I thought. I don’t know what happened at Haydock and it could be he comes here out of form, but I can forgive a horse one bad run. I found it interesting that they come here. Historically he is well drawn and it is a race which lacks loads of pace on paper and it isn’t impossibly he can race on the front end/lead. Smart could be in better form but enough have ran with credit not to put me off too much. Hopefully this easier race can see him return to the winners enclosure.

Silver Starlight – there was something niggling at me at this price which tempted me in to have a dart. Anything could happen I think but she is a CD winner and has run well here a couple of times. Her mark is coming down, she drops back into a C4 (she needed it two starts back I think, over what now seems an inadequate trip at 5f) and Allan rides for the first time this season. She wasn’t fancied at all the last day and ran as such, i’m not sure if there was an excuse, but maybe she isn’t up to that level. She has ran well on GF before and the price has lured me in.

Breaking Records looks the clear danger given connections, won LTO, in form, progressive and could be more to come.

Tuscany – Cole is 7/26,16p, +14 with all handicappers here in the last 5 years, 2/3,3p over 6f, 2/8,4p C5, 5/17,14p on GF. This one drops from a Newmarket class 3 into a Brighton C4, drops down to a sprinting trip for the first time, from 7f and gets first time CP. It could be he is just out of form and they don’t know what to do with him, but I thought those changes were interesting enough. He has a higher mark on the AW and is 0/4 on turf, although this is only his second handicap. This race looks weak enough to me and I wonder if they may try and blast out – if you are dropping in class, trip and first time headgear, that’s what I would try and do. It could be he finds this happening too quickly, and that he just doesn’t have the toe, and will stay on late. At 12s i’ll take a poke.

Some darts there, but hopefully one of them can win, and if another can that would be a decent day. Plenty of those have profiles that will be worth tracking anyway, and maybe i’m a few runs too soon!!

GL if you follow, brave souls 🙂

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FESTIVAL TIPS: ROYAL ASCOT 

5.00 Ascot 

Whiskey Sour – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP

Lagostovegas – 1 point win– 10/1 (gen) WON 10/1 

Meri Devie – 1/2 point win– 11/1 (gen) UP

Danny Day – 1/2 point win – 11/1 (gen) UP

 

No time for an in depth write up but i’ve used the content on the free page for this race and the various other stats content, plus some pondering. The first two have been tipped recently at Chelt/Punch, so we shall see if they can land this. They both have a touch of class over sticks, and if Lagos could repeat that Newmarket run in the big handicap, she’d have a chance. The market would suggest i’m on the wrong Mullins horse but he is short enough given his profile in my view. Anyway, we shall see how they go. I won’t go mad this week, but I should test myself with a 10-15 point bank from the Festival pot, and see if I can recapture some former glory (it wasn’t too long ago!) 🙂 

 

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None.

Whiskey Sour runs in 5.00 Ascot, tipped at Cheltenham 3 runs back

Lagostovegas… also in 5.00, tipped at Punchestown.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

2.45 T – Sienna Says 3rd 

3.55 T – Muatadel UP

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

4.05 Strat – Rive of Intrigue  3rd 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

2.55 Strat- I See You Well 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

ROYAL ASCOT 2018

IMPORTANT: I have decided that the majority of content for RA will be posted in the Free posts, including ‘qualifiers’ from the report below, the day’s ‘race in focus’ and any other notes/pointers of interest. I don’t plan to ‘tip’ anything in the free posts as such. If I decide to ‘tip’ anything these will be included as ‘festival tips’ and posted in Section 2 of the Members Posts only. I have no idea if I will tip anything this week from there as RA isn’t like the Jumps Festivals for me, but we shall see. There will be plenty of ‘interest’ bets at prices.  The York ‘through the card’ notes for the handicaps indicated I should get off the fence every now and then. All ‘standard’ members’ content will continue in the usual way. 

ROYAL ASCOT STATS REPORT HERE>>> 

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Royal Ascot Races TOP RATED

(HRB/GG/INFORM) (members only, starting points)

2.30 – Lightening Spear / Lord Glitters / Rhododendron

3.05 – Getchagetchagetcha / Cosmic Law / The Irish Rover

3.40 – Battaash / Battaash / Baattaash

4.20- Gustav Klimpt / Without Parole / Tip Two Win|U S Navy Flag

5.00 – Merie Devie / Look My Way (9 don’t have ratings in this,inc all Mullins) / Look My Way| Dubawi Fifty (8 have no ratings)

5.35 – Monarchs Glen / Chain Of Daisies / Spark Plug

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FESTIVAL TIPS: ROYAL ASCOT 

5.00 Ascot 

Whiskey Sour – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen)

Lagostovegas – 1 point win– 10/1 (gen)

Meri Devie – 1/2 point win– 11/1 (gen)

Danny Day – 1/2 point win – 11/1 (gen)

 

No time for an in depth write up but i’ve used the content on the free page for this race and the various other stats content, plus some pondering. The first two have been tipped recently at Chelt/Punch, so we shall see if they can land this. They both have a touch of class over sticks, and if Lagos could repeat that Newmarket run in the big handicap, she’d have a chance. The market would suggest i’m on the wrong Mullins horse but he is short enough given his profile in my view. Anyway, we shall see how they go. I won’t go mad this week, but I should test myself with a 10-15 point bank from the Festival pot, and see if I can recapture some former glory (it wasn’t too long ago!) 🙂 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. 230A Benbatl looks like the EW banker of the meeting.
    535A Mirage Dancer, despite being by Frankel, seems to favour fast going and must have chances too.

  2. The fifth bet tomorrow in the ‘starting points’ chasers is £10, 1%, 255S I See You Well.
    Profit summary for comparison:-
    Industry prices +£40
    BFSP +£53.10
    Both the above are to level stakes.
    Our profit £61.51.

  3. Seem to be hitting that rough patch which was bound to come sooner or later. Couple shorter than normal but I generally think Rhododendron should be a 6/4 shot and the Palmer horse won very comfortably LTO and is totally unexposed.
    Rhododendron Ascot Tuesday 14:30 1.5pt win
    Breaking Records Thirsk Tuesday 15:55 1.5pt win
    Fabricate Ascot Tuesday 17:35 1pt e/w

    1. What do you think about going each way on Rhododendron, Nick? Obviously the price is short for an ew bet, but with a number of bookies paying 4 places maybe there’s still plenty of value in the place part too? I’ve gone 1.5 points ew @ 3/1 (so 3/5 on the place) with Hills and Paddy.

      1. I would say 4 TBP market on betfair gives you your answer. You are getting 1.6 a place with bookies which is similar to what is achievable on betfair (once accounting for commission).

        7/2 with bookies (which looks plausible tomorrow am) would be enough to swing it in your favour.

        Of course, if Nick likes it a lot, it is probably value either route you take!

        1. Good point Francis. I hadn’t checked the BF place market, but would probably have expected it to be shorter than 1.6.

          1. Totally agree with Nick, each way at 5/1 at least, nothing shorter, unless you can get value place on bfr or the machine..

  4. Time dictates tips only today.

    14:30
    LIMATO 16/1 gen 1pt ew
    BENBATL 5/1 gen 2pt win
    15:40
    BATTASH 11/4 gen 2pt win
    BLUE POINT 10/1 gen 1pt ew
    17:00
    LAGOSTOVEGAS 11/1 gen 1pt ew
    COUER DE LION 7/1 gen 1pt ew
    MIRSAALE 33/1 gen 1pt ew
    17:35
    SHARJA BRIDGE 15/2 gen 1pt ew
    BIG COUNTRY 18/1 gen 1pt ew

    good luck with whatever you back today!

  5. results update 21 selections 1 wins,5 places, staked 21 pts returns 14.25 pts down 6.75 pts.
    todays qualifiers,
    Ascot 5-00. Mirsaale 33-1 sb paying 5 places
    Stratford 2-35. What A Laugh 11-1

    1. Hi martin, run out of time for Thirsk, apols, and now my head is a bit fried from all things race analysis! A few pokes between myself and SP2A on the card anyway it seems, fingers crossed they can give you something to cheer. GL with any bets! Looks like all the non handicaps may be dominated by a few at top of market.

  6. GOLF BETS
    Travellers Championship
    Daniel Berger 1 point ew 33/1 1/5 7 BF 33/1 1/5 6 Unibet 888 33/1 1/4 5 BW Sporting Bet
    Finished tied 6th in the US open and he has played here at TPC River Highlands only twice finishing 5th and 2nd.
    Xander Schauffele 1 point ew 40/1 1/5 8 PP SB 40/1 1/5 7 CO BO BFSB
    Finished tied 6th in the US Open and he played well here last year finishing 14th and a bold show is expected.

    Expect the price on Berger to shorten so get your bets on early

  7. COLINS BETS
    Thirsk
    2.45 Laughton
    3.55 Madrinho
    Brighton
    7.10 Afandem
    8.10 Coachella
    Beverley
    9.00 Clenymista

  8. Chris M Selections:

    14:30 Ascot – Lightning Spear (10/1 gen) OCP
    17:35 Ascot – Fabricate (18/1 WH, 17/1 gen) GG
    17:45 Thirsk – Acrux (6/1 gen) RTP
    19:10 Brighton – Pride of Angels (4/1 gen) RTP
    20:40 Brighton – Swift Fox (7/2 gen) RTP
    21:00 Beverley – Clenymistra (4/1 gen) RTP

    That’s all from me today, good luck with your betting!

  9. Jumps Festival, Flat Festival, “It Really Doesnt Matter What” Festival he can find the winner at all of them (even if my own personal pocket would have been better off). Will probably find us the winner at the AW Championships next Easter now!

    1. ha, cheers. Yet a C5/6 handicap at Thirsk is beyond me for now! A long week to go mind, but a good start! It would have been a long week if I didn’t go close in that, given it was essentially at Festival handicap hurdle without the hurdles!

        1. cheers Paul, glad you were on
          (don’t think SP2A tipped in the 5pm, was on their winner of 5.30 though!)
          Josh

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