Members Daily Post: 18/06/18 (complete)

Tips x3, Section 1 (comp), recent tips, test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ayr 

3.35 – Lomu (micro dist) I1 G3 18/1 S2 S6  2nd 18/1>17/2 

4.10 – Zebulon (m going) 33/1 UP

4.45 – 

Hillgrove Angel (m TJC) 25/1 UP

Dalshand (m runs) G1 9/1 S6 UP

5.15 – Racquet (m dist/class/going) 13/2  UP

 

Carlisle 

2.15 – Simon’s Smile (2YO) 14  (late,posted 07.51) 3rd

3.20 – Geoff Potts (m dist) I1 9/2 UP

3.50 – 

Angels Acclaim (3yo+, +m class/age) w2 G3 8/1 3rd 

Jacob Black (3yo+, + m dist) w1 H1 I3 2/1 S2 2nd 

Cliff Bay (3yo+, + m TJC/dist/age/runs) I3

Zorovan (3yo+, + m dist) H3 6/1  UP

5.30 – Savannah moon (m age)  17/2  UP

 

Nottingham

6.20 – 

Tilly Trotter (all hncps) I3 20/1 

Penny Dreadful (all hncps) I3 15/2 UP

8.50 – Epitaph (m class) I1 G3  25/1 S2 S6 UP

 

Windsor

7.30 – 

Blitz (4yo+)  14/1  UP

Six Strings (m dist/age) H3 I3 4/1  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 12/140,44p, 0)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

 

NOTES

4.45 Ayr – Dalshand – 1 point win – 9/1 (PP/BV) 8/1 (gen) UP. awful.

6.20 Notts – (10p R4 on prices below) 

Tallinski – 1 point win – 9/1 (PP/BV) 8/1 (gen) 2nd 

Tilly Trotter – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen)

that will be all for tips (08.51)

 

Dalshand – this lightly raced french recruit runs over 1m6f here for the first time for connections, and given some of is form in France and how he ran LTO, with any luck it brings about improvement. He drops into a C5 for the first time and in the 4 runs O’Meara’s had him, his mark has dropped 14lb. The horse arrives here in form having ran well to a point LTO, where they all bumped into one. There also isn’t that much pace on paper in this and he can race prominently. It isn’t impossible they make use of him on the front end, or in any case he should be in the right position in what could be a falsely run race. Good to Firm is a bit of an unknown but he ran well on firm in France once, staying on over 14f. He does just look like a galloper. The obvious question/niggle is over jockey bookings, but his price allowed the play. You’d have thought Tudhope had the choice but i’m not sure this race will be run to suit, certainly not in the context of his price- unless of course his stablemate is here as a pacemaker! O’Meara and James are 5/25,6p in Ayr handicaps and all in all, given his profile/price I was happy to have a dart.

Tallinski – I tipped this one at Muss LTO where I completely mis-read the going/weather, with a ‘through the card’ based on good, and it soon turning soft it seems. This one had 1st CP that day, broke well, and was up there for a way against the nearside rail, before fading in the ground. The headgear comes off and with jockey claims, he is now back down to the mark of his last win (won off 77 with BRs 7lb claim, runs off 73 today but BR now claims 3, although is a better jockey now I suspect). They also return to the same CD of his only turf win and drop back down into C5. Two starts ago he ran well on reappearance where running as if needing the run, but he was up there and led 1f from home. If he can build on that back here in what appear ‘ideal conditions’ he should go close. 8/1, 9/1 looked a few points too big to my eyes, in what does feel a wide open race.

Tilly Trotter – I go double handed in this race and hope one of them can win, preferably this one given the odds. 20s does seem rather big to my eyes. This horse is having the 7th turf handicap run of her life and she has yet to win on grass. I do think there have been valid excuses for plenty of those runs and I wouldn’t want to pigeon-hole her as an AW horse, not yet, and not at this price. Connections got this one from Dermot Weld and she made her first run for the yard in a Pontefract C3 off OR 87. She runs off 74 today with a 5lb claim – this jockey riding for the very first time and he could be seen to be the yard’s main man really. They are 23/132,50p in all handicaps (AW+Turf), +56 to SP, with a couple of winners at 14s and 20s, but the results are not skewed by a monster priced one. TJC are 3/9,4p at the track in handicaps, Carroll is 3/12,3p in CD handicaps in the last 5 years. The horse also drops into a C5 for the first time and the run LTO was her first in 135 days. Hopefully she comes on for it. It isn’t impossible they’ve had a plan for this one and if the money comes, it will be more exciting. The race also looks packed full of pace and it could all fall apart, and go to one ridden more patiently, coming through late. I thought there was enough to go on at 20s given her profile, handicap mark/against AW mark, class move, jockey change, trainer stats here, TJ stats etc. A fascinating outsider who can hopefully out-run her odds. If she ever repeats her AW exploits on turf, she will be thrown in.

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Elsewhere… well that 3.20 Carlisle looks a puzzle and you could make cases for many…the race is packed full of horses in form, some dropping in class etc. It looks a competitive affair and it’s tough to have a strong view in my mind. There are two horses below who look out of form but may be worth  a 1/4 point each, or change, just in case… Lady Crystal… she was awful the last day and far too keen – and in that context i’m not sure sparking her up further with 1st blinkers will help, but it is doing something different.I assume they will try and blast out and see what happens. I wonder if they are waiting for her to ‘come into form’ at home on the gallops, before dropping into a weak C6 event and hacking up. She could run in much weaker races than this given she is OR 57 and runs in a 0-70 today. The yard are in form but i couldn’t tip her and can live with not doing so if she somehow bolts up in this headgear – at 14s i’ll throw some hopeful change just in case.. as I will at the Fell qualifier Guardia Svizzera who moves down in trip and class on his 3rd run for the yard, another irish import whose mark is dropping. 6f at this stiff track may be idea but again he just looks out of form, unless stamina at Leicester over 7f found him out- he did run as if that was the case but it was a poor enough effort. He was 20s/25s when posting the qualifiers last night and he does have an interesting profile. This looked a deep race but he could run well enough.

Ventura Secret and Kath’s Legacy were not big enough prices for me to consider tipping or even backing, but again they may both go ok, although they seem short enough to my eyes.

Right, that’s the lot for today. I need to crack on with Royal Ascot, and squeeze in a results update for the last 2 weeks.

Have a great day, Josh .

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Recent Tips (from section 2/’notes’ horses) 

(running total, from 07/06/18: 3/13,5p, +21.5) 

3.20 Carl – Lady Crystal (1st run since tipped) UP

3.20 Carl- Ventura Secret (3rd run) UP

3.35 Ayr – Kupa River (1st)

6.00 Wind – Kaths Legacy (1st) 3rd

6.20 Notts – Tallinski (1st) (posted 07.43) 2nd 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

3.20 Carl- Guardia Svizzera UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Royal Ascot 2018: stats report/angles to follow, likely added into Tuesday’s post early Monday evening.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. Englishman Windsor Monday 19:30 1pt e/w
    Tallinski Nottingham Monday 18:20 1pt e/w
    Landing Night Ayr Monday 15:35 1pt e/w
    Biddy Brady Carlisle Monday 15:20 1pt e/w

    1. With you on BIDDY BRADY and LANDING NIGHT, been that ,many non runners this morning that I have had a small tickle rather than the full monty. Good luck!

    2. I picked out Englishman as well. I like its win to runs ratio amongst other things.
      Ive done it in a Double with Sir Plato not a great price but I think the opposition is weak.

  2. LTO Losers

    N 6.20 – Tallinski (1st run)….back to track of last win

    a couple of points of interest.
    Ventura Secret is 2 from 2 @ c&d
    Sir Plato W8.00 , won 1st time noted @11’s and is 4 from 5 @ c & d
    Mike

  3. Results for last week.
    Staked 12pts, profit -6pts or -£30 to £5 stakes.

    Not great results but relatively small loss in the grand scheme of things. Next AW meeting comes from Chelmsford on Wed. Back Tues with qualifiers.

  4. Josh i’m off to Thirsk tomorrow for the 8 race card and Ascot on the big screen, there’s 2 x 2yo novices, 2 x 3yo+ novices and 4 x handicaps if you could manage a quick run through it would be much appreciated.

    1. I’ll see what I can do! Won’t be until 11 ish though I imagine, or whenever I finish section 2 + RA content for Day 1. Will post a comment either way.

    2. I don’t want to promise anything given it will depend on how much time I spend watching the England game tonight but given the Thirsk card looks far more interesting than Royal Ascot will see what I can find.

  5. Chris M Selections:
    15:20 Carlisle – Geoff Potts (5/1 Bet365, 9/2 gen) RTP
    17:30 Carlisle – Regal Mirage (9/4 gen) GG

    Re-Cap w/c 11/6/18:
    24 bets – 4 winnners and 1 N/R
    S/R: 17.39%
    ROI: -11.17%
    P/L: -2.57pts

    Overall:
    24 bets – 4 winnners and 1 N/R
    S/R: 17.39%
    ROI: -11.17%
    P/L: -2.57pts

    Poor week last week, try to turn it around during Ascot week!! Good luck with your betting today 🙂

    1. Fell… 1/47,9p all runners 5 years (well,he’s only been training for a couple) , 1/41,9p in handicaps…and when Hamilton rides the ‘cappers… 1/24,6p.

    2. Hi Martin, according to Geegeez,

      Fell is surprisingly just 1/47, 9 places at Thirsk, -13pts, only win was 33-1

      Fell / Hamilton at Thirsk are 1/27, 6 places, +7pts, their only winner was Memories Galore at 33-1

  6. COLINS BETS
    Carlisle
    3.50 Captain Revelations ran well behind Natajack which i fancied strongly now a N/R won class 4 races in the past.
    5.00 Ad Libitum
    Nottingham
    7.50 Isle Of Man

    June Bookmakers SP – 7.15 points
    BOG + 10.35

  7. I’ve backed Ad Libitum too, Colin. Hopefully my luck is due to turn, as I couldn’t find my own a*se with both hands right now.

    1. Been a very poor couple of months for me and today in the 3.50 Carlisle strongly fancied Natajack now a N/R,won over CD last summer 13lb lower than that win,different trainer but had the same claimer aboard today who won that race last year,and in my view would have gone close,whether it is the going what made them pull it out,will keep an on it for its next run and the jockey booking.

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