1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.Any general messages/updates etc
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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
FLAT
Doncaster
2.10 – Flying North (micro age) w1 H3 I3 7/1 WON 8/1
2.40 – Koduro (2YO) 14 11/1 UP
3.40 –
Boy In The Bar (all hncps) H1 I3 4/1 S2 UP
Naggers (m dist) G1 14/1 S6
Related (m dist) 18/1 3rd
Moonraker (m going) w2 I3 14/1 UP
Salisbury
4.55 – Indiscretion (m runs) w2 H3 11/2 2nd 9/1
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JUMPS
Bonus Irish
4.00 DownP – High Expectations (m runs) ES H3 8/1 S3 UP
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KEY
H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
I1/I3 = Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3
14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers: Flat : HERE Jumps 2017/18: HERE>>>
ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ + (rationale/ angles in link above)
S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start. w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)
The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>
‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)
‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)
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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)
Test/trial : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 12/140,44p, 0) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)
None today.
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re-cap…
Hmm. That was a mixed day…well, there were various winners dotted around at 12/1 (a ‘mention’in section 2) and 20/1 + 28/1 winners in my York ‘through the card notes’. I hope Aidan was on! +£33 to £1 bets if you’d backed all 17, although I know a handful that just stuck to the big priced ones in the handicaps…good job! Sadly I didn’t ‘tip’ any of those winners which is always annoying but happy with how I read those races. That’s the first time i’ve landed on two biggies in flat handicaps on the same Saturday/festival card I think. I can live with not ‘tipping’ the biggies, as that is said with hindsight and I never thought about it… but the Gordon Elliot 11YO 3m chaser winning for the bonus stats was annoying as I know how close I was to elevating him to a tip, but I didn’t, so that’s that. Two of the tips ran just fine, decent placed efforts at 14/1 and 16/1…the latter closing to the line and most frustrating but that’s racing. He still looks a big baby with plenty to learn and that may have been a smart one in front, time will tell. He has wins in him. Some crossbar rattling but i’m reading races just fine, just not landing on the right ones as yet. 140 tips and 0 points clearly leaves some room for improvement, although the placed horses give hope. Work to do, although the overall tipping pile is fine across the board, but I do need to start adding to it. The stars will align for a profit frenzy at some point.
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Doncaster
‘through the card’ … nothing today, apologies. Anything I do on this front today would be rushed/not up to scratch. A morning off 🙂
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3.Micro System Test Zone
None.
4.Any general messages/updates etc
Facebook... could you do me a favour please…I have moved with the times, at last, and created a Racing To Profit page. There won’t be any substantial content on there that isn’t on this blog somewhere/the free posts, but there is a competition to win 3 months free access to the members’ club…however that isn’t open to existing members, sorry! 🙂 In any case, if you are on facebook, would you mind ‘liking’ the page, and you can also follow Martin’s lead and leave a review if you so wish! Anyway, you can find the page HERE>>>
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26 Responses
just one qualifier for sunday,
15.40 Doncaster- Paying 4 Places skybet Watchable 15-2
Can’t quite see straight yet after yesterday at York, but yes Josh we were on the winners you tipped and had a fantastic day. Thanks very much for your time and efforts. There’s a few pints behind the bar for you in the Stag and Monkey when you’re up this way !!
Good stuff Aidan, glad you were on and i could help make the day profitable! I’ll bear that in mind, sounds like a great pub. Glad you had a great day.
LTO Losers
DP 4.00 – Massinis Trap, 1st nt’d 13/4, x@16, then 18/5, x@20 this is 3rd strike BUT both runs have been at Aintree and back on home soil today on a reduced OR and, some might say, an easier task. Currently 14’s
a couple of “foriegners” today i fancy.
Downpatrick 3-00. Dorkas 14-1
Chantilly 3-05. Luminate 8-1 sb paying 4 places
fun bet stakes £2 ew and a £1 ew double
Dougan 25/1 WH 20/1 general. Doncaster 3.40 1pt e/w
Was 2nd in this race last year off an adjusted 87. Goes off an adjusted 88 today. 19 day break since last run. Last three wins came after 15,14, 12 day break. Is drawn well. Trainer going ok 3 wins from 25 last 14 days. Jockey has 15% strike rate 2018. 4 winners from 19 for trainer. Sire likes a straight track.
Negatives – Rosa’s never ridden a winner here. Trainer a very poor 1 from 17 here. Good luck if you play
Can’t resist a few exotics. Done last years winner and 4th with Dougan. Wentworth Falls and Pipers note. Pipers note won this off lower mark and had a saver on that also.
Nice to see support coming for Kodura 2.40,i thought 14 was a bit generous,racing post had him in at 8/1,they are usually fairly close on their tissues,if nothing else.I am away from the virtual world for a few days but had a look at Burkes entries over next few days.Has Simon’s smile entered at Carlisle with Curtiss taking the ride.He is a whopping +150 level stakes profit there so all his rides merit note there a and Clifford Lee has Huricane Hero at Ayr.As always its a value bet you want so will see tomorrow if there is value
Track that one Gerry, promising enough run.. well beaten in the end but got outpaced I think/lack of experience but kept on going through to the line. Prob wants further in time. Raced prominently, could try and get away on front end next time, track with a bend/stiff climb to line maybe.
340D Many chances here, but I think Huntsmans Close has ideal conditions, whereas many others would like some cut in the ground. Once rated over 100, this is a suitable grade, and D Griffiths, an excellent handler of sprinters, is now in charge of his career, with his old mate Dave Allen (riding well) engaged, as so often. 40/1 – was 50/1 in a place earlier. Had a seven week break since seasonal debut which might be a minus.
COLINS BETS
No bet today
Much better day yesterday with three winners will do the update of results tomorrow.
Hi Josh
Have a great day off you deserve it recharge batteries for Ascot there are a few horses mentioned on here and free post to give me ideas and the qualifiers in section one so will have good day
Peter L
Hi Josh
Little confused over the LTO losers,MickeyDee as been putting them up on the site and in most cases you have duplicated them on your Recent Tips.
Today the LTO losers have been put up by Titus and you have not duplicated the bet,are these the same bets as MickeyDee and yourself,do not want to back the bet if not.
Colin,
they are notes/tips that I have dating from before Mickeydee/Josh’s. I mentioned somewhere a few weeks ago that I had backed some (profitably) when I spotted them but am now tracking all I have back to start of 17/18 NH. I was going to put up a full list but it will be a daunting read so will just add them to Mike’s current one’s if he has qualifiers or separate as today. I will post p/l from ALL runners later today/tomorrow.
ps, cheers for yesterday
Hi Colin
I’m pretty sure they are the same. Mike (Titus) has been trawling back further than Mike (Mickeydee) to log all of Josh’s tips then posting them when they next run up to 3rd time after or win. I suspect Josh may be a little under the weather today and missed it lol 🙂
Ha beat me to it Mike
Colin
I only tracked the LTO losers from the beginning of this flat 1st April season which will take in the Summer jumpers. Titus has gone further back.
If Titus or Josh miss one from April I will post. I will leave it to them as they are more equipped with software.
Glad to see you are coming back to form.
Mike
Thanks Titus and Ken for coming back and clarifying the LTO,am also suffering brain damage after last night and my son is in Prague this weekend and he has paid 54pence for a litre of beer!!!
Hi Colin….
For now in my own ‘recent winners’ tracking in section 2 I am just focusing on my ‘notes’ tips from section 2, I haven’t been flagging any old Festival tips or indeed 3m+ chase tips. I will attempt to do that but wish to keep them separate I think as there is a different logic underpinning both… the Festival tips, such as Massinis, are very unique circumstances/race conditions/analysis etc… the reason I think the notes tips may do ok in time is the sort of horse I tip…generally lightly raced/unexposed… that is why, touch wood, enough may win on next 3 starts if they don’t when I tip. Of course there is the odd older handicapper that I may have judged has it’s conditions/is now well handicapped, so may make sense for odd one of those to go in. I am treating those two pools of horses ‘notes tips vs festival/chase’ as two separate entities, in terms of ‘backing them blind’ for 3 strikes and you’re out… i think the logic/reasoning is stronger for the notes tips, as to why they could continue to tick along. if that makes sense. It does in my head haha. (admittedly sore head as I type!)
The Mikes are doing a grand job of flagging all of them, and other non notes tips could be useful starting points..i’m just a tad anxious about throwing them in to back systematically for 3 runs etc in that test.
Josh
Makes perfect sense Josh.
I’ll highlight fest/3m+ as we go along .
I’m fairly confident I’ve got all tips/notes from beginning of last NH.
I have quite a few from before but I only made a note if backing it.
mike
Hi Josh, I followed your through the card yesterday, most of them but not all, and the big priced winners on Bfair more than paid for it. Great selection’s. Thx. Richard
good to hear Richard, yep some nice prices on the machine, BFSPs were good but they were a fair bit bigger at various points I think. Two winners like that usually ensures for a profitable ‘through the card’ !! Glad you had a piece.
Watchable Doncaster 15:40 1pt e/w-Price taken 9/1 4 places (also available at 10/1 3 places) I was on the fence with this one last night at 7s but has now drifted out to a back able price particularly as we are still getting 4 places with the field down to 13. Won over course and distance 2 starts ago and was racing the whole way with George Bowen so it ended up being much closer than it should have been. That horse went on to bolt up in a better race at York. The 3rd also won. He is only 3lbs higher here. I tipped him LTO in error last time out given he is better on straight tracks. You can completely ignore his last run given he was totally taken out by Brian the Snail at the bend. Trainer and jockey are 2/7, 4p here this season in handicaps. Conditions all look fine and should run a good race.
A Trixie at odds I wouldn’t normally play at with singles, just for interest today:
2:55 Sals. – Cross My Mind 9/4
5:10 Don. – Place Des Vosges 9/4
Both the above have come out of a race at Salisbury (4th & 2nd) where the form has worked out well since.
4:55 Sals. – Indiscretion 13/2
Will probably also have a small e/w on Brian The Snail 16/1 in Doncaster. 3:40, back down in class 3 and his last winning mark.
Chris R.
Had Flying North at 10 -1 good start to the day waiting on Naggers now profit what ever happens roll on Royal Ascot
Good stuff Steven, i had a nibble also and am cursing slightly my occasional drive to maintain my youth and staying out until the early hours! Ticked plenty of boxes… looked sure to get an easy lead, and given stays further also made sense they would make plenty of use..in form, progressive, stamina assured, and all prev tries at 8f back end last year were at a higher level. Damn, would like to think i’d have tipped that on a ‘going’ day! But glad you used the stats as a starting point, which is what it’s all about. Well done. Yep, Naggers winning for S6 would be a welcome biggie for that, although a winner yesterday at 6s. Fingers crossed! Looks a hot race and I think ‘team RTP’ nearly has every horse covered in that haha.
Had small nibble on High expectations also, although a niggle that handicapper may have him,but not sure, and on the pace maps, LTO winner Mezajy looks sure to get an easy lead I think, had nibble on him at 9s also. We shall see!