Members Daily Post: 16/06/18 (complete)

YORK ‘through the card’ Tips x3, Section 1 (comp), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Bath

1.45 – Red Emperor  (m class) 25/1 UP

2.20 – Travis Bickle (m class) H3 I3 10/1 UP

4.45 – Sir Jamie (all, 4yo+) H1 I1 G3 6/1 S1 S2 S4 S6 

 

York

1.50 – Always Resolute (m going) 22/1 UP

2.25 – Squats (all hncps 5 yrs, 4yo+) 30 ES+  9/1 S3A UP

5.15 – Aprovado (m going) 28/1 UP

 

Sandown

5.35 – Precision (m going+ age) 8/1 UP

 

Chester

3.10 – Ce La Vie (m dist) G3 10/1  UP

4.55 –

Rene Mathis (m dist) 7/1 UP

Gabrial The Tiger (m dist) 10/1 UP

5.30 – Lorelina (m dist) H1 4/1  WON 4/1>9/4 

 

Leicester

7.10 –

International Man (m class+age) H3 5/1  2nd 

Areen Heart (m age) H3 I1 G3 6/1 S2 S4 S5 S6  WON 6/1 

 

JUMPS

Hexham

2.15 – Indian Voyage (all hncps + m dist) ES+ H3 6/1 S3A  UP

3.55 – Desert Island Dusk (all hncps) w1 ES+ H3 I3 7/2 S3A#* UP

*S3A# code indicating it’s a ES+ ‘double/treble’ rated,which we are tracking.

4.30 – Louloumills (all hncps) ES+ 18/1 S2A S3A UP

5.05 –

Apache Pilot (all hncps) ES+ H3 I1 6/1 S3A# S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

Chanceiton (hncp c + m class) ES+ 12/1 S2 S3A  2nd 

For Yes (hncp c) 10/1 S2  UP

 

Fontwell

5.50 –

Howlongisafoot (m dist) H3 I3 5/2  2nd 

Swift Native (m age) ES 7/1 S3A UP

7.25 – Guerrilla Tactics (hncp c) 14 H1 9/2 3rd 

7.55 – The Black Squirrel (hncp h) 14 H3 4/1 

8.25 –

Mrs Robin (hncp c) 14,30 w1 H3 I1 5/4 

Ballycoe (m dist) 9/1

8.55 – Atalanta’s Gold (m runs) w2 H1 5/1 

 

Irish Bonus 

Downpatrick

3.05 –

Alterno (all hncps) w1 H1 10/1 S2  UP

Last Garrison (hncp h) ES+  25/1 S2A S3A  UP

Canny Tom (m runs) ES 12/1 S2 S3 UP

3.40 – Kickham (m runs) ES  12/1 S2 S3  UP

4.50 – Cecil Corbett (m runs) ES 9/1 S3 WON 9/1>12/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 12/140,44p, 0)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

2.25 York – Muntadab – 1 point win – 14/1 3rd (decent run,but would suggest that handicapper does now have him, which I wasn’t sure on… 20/1 winner for the ‘through the card’ stabs) 

5.00 Sand – Monoxide – 1 point win – 14/1 (PP/BV) 12/1 (gen) 2nd 16/1 (damn)

5.35 Sand – Precision – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP 5/1 – a bit of a nothing run. One to keep an eye on.

 

 

Muntadab... one from the Fell test below and the main attraction was pace, and the fact that he may get an easy enough lead or in any case take it up with some way to go. The Ryan horse is the other pace pusher but he seems a bit out of sorts and with any luck will leave this one to it some way up the straight. I will put his last run down to simply being outclasses/doing too much, but his handicapping form before that has been solid. Bar the Varian horse, Spanish City UP (who is probably worth a saver), everything else looks exposed enough and the majority are all above their last winning handicap marks still. This one clearly has a question from a mark of 100, 3lb above his Muss win. The ground should be ok but he won’t mind if any rain falls just to take the sting out of it. He also stays 8f which is no bad thing in a race like this and hopefully Hamilton can wind it up from the front and cling on at the death, the Varian horse just not quite getting there! If you take him out of things then this becomes a very open handicap to my eyes, and 14s was more than fair. The horse is 4/7,4p in 7f turf handicaps and 2/5,3p when returning within 10 days of his last start. Knowing my luck i’ve picked the wrong Fell horse from the two below, Inner Circle  UP:)

Monoxide… this son of Galileo was pitched into the Wood Ditton on debut and I tipped him on the back of my Newmarket Craven stats I think, and the record of the trainer at Newmarket with his 1st time out 2 year olds… now, as an aside >>> he has moved to Lambourn in recent months and I did note that he had a 1st time out winner at Newbury the other day… given this is about a 30 minute drive from his new home, and Newmarket is 2 1/2 hours or so, I wonder if this track may be the place he sends his 2YO that are ready to perform first time up. Something to watch anyway, as he did used to land a few biggies at HQ in recent years. Anyway, this one ran ok I thought on debut and drops into a C5 from C3 and steps up 2f in trip. He did look outpaced at times on debut, as well as inexperienced. The trainer is in form, and this jockey is 1/3 on his runners. The Gosden horse is clearly well fancied but the market is rarely a sign with this yard, although a drift from morning price for one with this profile would be a concern. His record with horses second time up is also very good. Fingers crossed he can build on debut but given his breeding you’d think he has wins in him at some point, and is one to keep an eye on.

Precision... probably the pick of the lot although maybe i’m saying that due to his shorter odds! Trainer and jockey are 6/22,11p when teaming up in handicaps (suspect many of those for Crowley’s retainers). Crowley is 12/46,19p at the course in the last year, SMS 6/20,8p, and he is 3/19,7p in the last 14 days, so going along just fine. The horse…well he is a CD winner at C4 level and he returns to those conditions today, having run over slightly shorter/C3 LTO at Chester.. given his form here, and the fact that he appears to run like a stayer/galloper, i’m willing to forgive that run LTO. It could be that he is just out of form but heavy ground was probably an excuse the time before that. The ground is an unknown, and given his profile and all of the above, I thought 7s was fair, and money is coming, which is rarely a bad sign. He had an interesting profile and should be able to race prominently and may even lead if nothing takes it up.

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Elsewhere... well it was a guessing game as to what the going will be at Fontwell and Hexam. In any case not much at the odds at those tracks jumped out at me. Fontwell is officially good, the going stick would suggest it is on the soft side, but the clerk there seems very inconsistent…he must use different sticks! I though Guerilla Tactics and The Black Squirrel had decent chances but the prices seemed about right/short enough. But if you wanted a fun £2.50 double or something, maybe they will give us some entertainment. (i say that having never backed a winning double in my life I don’t think, albeit its a small sample!) I looked at Sir Jamie.. the ground is the concern for that multiple strategy qualifier…if he handles firm, then he will go very close against that lot, if he doesn’t, he won’t be doing much at all.

I had a browse at the 5.05 Hexham and wondered if it may be an old boys benefit gig, with Apache Pilot UP and Chicago Outfit UP looking of some interest. They are 11 and 13 though but neither will be far away and the latter will give it a very good go from the front at double figures. May be worth an interest bet. His age put be off being too bullish.

Rene Mathis UP received some attention but his price didn’t quite lure me in…given his back class and how his handicap mark is plummeting, he is worth keeping an eye on. He does drop in trip and class here which caught the eye, and he may put up a bold show. The good Dr is no doubt entertaining at the track today and any horse in his colours may well have been set up for the meeting to run their best races in a while. I stared for a while at Kickham UP and Cecil Corbett WON 12/1 for a time also at DP, but talked myself out of tipping those for one reason or another. I wouldn’t fall of my seat if either ran big races.

My £5 (1/4 point) confetti stakes may be fired at a few of those underlined/italics, for interest.

Right, I think that’s nearly all the stats qualifiers covered!! 🙂

 

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Recent Tips

(running total, from 07/06/18: 3/12,4p, +22.5) 

5.00 Sand – Monoxide

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Irish Angles

4.50 DownP – Burndown

Flat

R Fell

2.25 Y – Muntadab 3rd (good run, can’t complain)

4.05 Y – Inner Circle

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

5.05 Hex – My Escapade UP

7.25 Font – Midnight Bliss WON 9/2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

York

‘through the card notes’, as requested by Aidan 

(some caution on the weather front.. I may save main analysis until the morning as they are supposed to get plenty of rain, so much it could change the ground dramatically. Picking horses tonight may be unwise, although I may fire off any stats/angles of interest tonight, as a starting point…) 

Stats/pointers…

1.50 

  • T Easterby: 4/10,6p in the race… Mukhayyan 
  • trainers x1 winner… Ellison (Always Resolute), Coward (Tapis Libre, won race last year) Johnston (Star of The East) 
  • Jockeys: Brotherton 3/15,5p… Pacify , Mason x1 (Tapis Libre) , E Easterby x1 (Mukhayyan) 
  • Trainers ‘in form’ Geegeez as per Key,  14, 30, 14,30 : Desert Ruler (14,30) 
  • Geegeez / Inform Top Rated: Armandihan / Mukhayyam 

2.25 

  • Trainers in form: Squats (30) , Spanish City (14,30) 
  • Geegeez / Inform Top Rated: Above The Rest / Muntadab 

3.00 

  • Trainers ‘in form’ : Weekender (14,30) 
  • Trainers that have won race with runners: Clever Cookie / Melodic Motion 
  • Geegeez / Inform Top Rated: Marmello / Clever Cookie 

3.35 

  • T Easterby: 5/32,10p in race… Staxton / Angels 
  • Fahey / Haggas / Ryan/ Channon have all won this x1, and all have runners  (11 runners in total from trainers who have won race before) 
  • Trainers in form: Jawaal / Citron Major / Beshaayir / Neola 
  • Geegeez / Inform Top Rated: Savalas / Bengali Boys

4.05 

  • trainers ‘in form’ : Intense Style (30) , Trinity Star (14,30) 
  • Geegeez / Inform Top Rated: Captain Bob / Thomas Cranmer 

4.40 

  • Trainers that have won race with runners: Rathbone / Jfoul / Pink Flamingo 
  • Trainers ‘in form’ : Jfoul (14) / Secret Picnic (14,30) 
  • Geegeez / Inform Top Rated: (of those with a run…) Jfoul / Jfoul 

5.15 

  • trainers ‘in form’ : Toofi (14), Athollblair Boy (14) 
  • Geegeez / Inform Top Rated: Bogart / Presidential 

 

Through the card selections

…for fun money/interest mainly if you are going racing, looks a tough card and i’ve gone with plenty of biggies that could do anything… listed in order of preference, left to right…

1.50 – Mukhayyam UP/ Always Resolute UP (small change,plenty of questions but trainer/jock 3/15,6p together,inc this race in 2015…i thought trip may be too short,class, form questions,but these are funny races…if he wins you’ll hear my screams of anguish from wherever you are, for not being in Section 2)

2.25 – Muntadab 3rd 14/1  / Spanish City  UP 4th/ Above The Rest WON 20/1>16/1 

3.00 – Weekender 2nd 10/3>2/1 (if little rain, ground a big question for fav, this one should try and lead, we shall see if he can stay there)

3.35 – Snazzy Jazzy UP / Great Prospector UP/ Encrypted WON 28/1>25/1  (TJ keep popping up with biggies) / Neola UP …. (4 big pokes in a wide open race… at shorter odds, Gabrial The Saint UP and Saxton 4th made list but have gone with the biggest priced ones, and you can’t back them all! And those 6 may not have even touched on a placed horse, let alone the winner!)

4.05 – Duck Egg Blue UP/ Dark Intention UP / Inner Circle UP

4.40 – Jfoul UP

5.15 – Toofi UP/ Suitcase N Taxi UP/ Central City UP (proper flyer, but HP+JG again)

2/17,4p, +33 

Best of luck if you follow any of those! 🙂

 

 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. Starting Points staking:-
    Bet 3 : 505H My Escapade 1% £10
    Bet 4: 725F Midnight Bliss. Conditional stake – if bet 3 loses £11, otherwise £10.

    1. Results: L -£10; W Bsp 7.20 (9/2) Stake £11 x 5.89 (Bsp less stake and 5% commission) =
      +£64.79. So today’s profit is £54.79.
      Sequence: L, 6/4, L, 9/2. Stakes £42, winnings £61.51, Bank £1061.51.
      Next bet £10.

  2. Hi Josh,
    couple of additions maybe
    B4.45 – Sir Jamie (4yo+Hc’s)
    F 8.55 – Atalantas Gold (micro runs)

    To add to Aidan’s TTC pot
    2.55 – I like Squats in this, Oisin a good booking and I think there is plenty left in the tank for this underachiever if it gets an aggressive ride. Shame Paddy’s not up.
    4.40 – My bob e/w is definitely on the rank outsider Juals Spirit @ 100/1pp 66 elsewhere. No way has this nag been ridden to win yet and Ellison’s wallet will be empty before he gets to York!!!!! Mind you it’s not far and I can only think of one WHills betwixt yard and course.
    Mike

  3. One from me tomorrow: 3.35 York – Snazzy Jazzy

    Moore / Cox – 5/8 6 places in the last 2 years. The horse won 3/3 last season over 6F. Ran 7F in its first run this year and was going well till the last furlong and faded. Back down to 6F and with Moore on. Looks some good other sorts in the race tomorrow, but 16/1 looked big to me. Gone 1 point ew

      1. It certainly wont hurt! I’m sure they’ll pull it if they don’t like the conditions anyway.

        I noticed it also beat Society Power last year which has won 5 in a row since including a couple of class 2’s. It was SP first ever start but that seems decent form.

          1. don’t know how accurate the forecast is i’m 40 miles from York and we’ve had a couple of hours of more than light showers just stopped and the suns out now i’m back from my dog walk.

  4. saturdays qualifiers,
    Hexham 2-15. Indian Voyage 13-2 sb
    York 2-25. Muntadab 12-1 4 places sb/14-1 b365 3 places
    Sandown 3-15. Almoreb 8-1 b365
    York 5-15. Dandy Highwayman 20-1 sb 5 places

  5. Here are today’s,

    15:35 York
    CITRON MAJOR 11/1 gen 1pt ew
    Most of these are still babies and sometimes its best stick with winners, this fella is clearly improving and the 11lb rise is counteracted by putting a claiming jockey on board, (quite a good one at that, very underrated is Rowan Scott).
    His yard is also in form and the wind and rain forecast will not affect him as much as some of the other fancies, all in all the right package for this kind of race!
    BENGALI BOYS 22/1 gen 1pt ew
    He won the weatherbys super sprint by 6l last year and clearly has ability, top weight is counteracted by another claiming jockey, but, what really interests me is the speed of this fella, if he has his head switched on today he should burn all contenders and win like he did in the super sprint….we shall see, too big a price i feel at 22/1.
    From my stable of the moment, Mr Fahey…

    good luck with whatever you back today.

  6. need a few winners today as all this years profit now gone, the new fence i mentioned grew into a new fence,deck, raised planter, metal archway ,gravel path, back door step and patio relaid, so i thought sod it and treated myself to a new telly for the world cup and £100 for a few bets at Thirsk on Tuesday (yes Josh i will be asking you to have a look through the card) 🙂

  7. LTO Losers

    Monoxide – (Sandown, 17:00)
    Race: Randox Health British Ebf Maiden Stakes11/1
    FTO 10/4 Newm Notes
    Timeform €105,000 yearling, Galileo colt. Brother to useful 1m winner Magic of Reality. Ninth of 19 in maiden at Newmarket (8f, good, 16/1) on debut 58 days ago. Up in trip. Likely to improve.

    GL today

    Mike

    1. Hi Mike
      Non to add but a couple for info
      C 3.30 – Lorelina, 1st nt’d 27/10, 2nd@8, had 2 runs since BUT both up in class. Back to C4 today???
      H 2.15 – Indian Voyage, 1st nt’d 2/12, x@9. Had 3 strikes.

      Both Ghayyar and Suitcase are at York after winning last week. I’m keeping a check on past winners as it appears to be worth keeping the faith, but need a larger sample.
      Mike

      1. Hi Mike
        Thanks for the info. Lorelina 5.30C in case others can’t find it.
        I have gone in with a fiver on each of the 2 mentioned I V because it is in S1 today as well. It has had 2 runs this season so worth another try.
        You are correct with Suitcase won made us some profit and now discarded.

        The reason I took it on to track Josh’s losers was I had noticed one or two going in after he had tipped them so thought there was mileage in it.

        I just started with the flat season 1st April end of Sept which would include Summer Jumpers. They are producing a decent profit.

        Post what you have then it is up to the individual whether they want to follow.

        GL today

        Mike

  8. My 3 for the day. Done an ew trixie also.

    All York.
    2:25 Feathered Nest
    3:35 Snazzy Jazzy
    5:15 Paddy Power

    GL

  9. Karl Burke continued his fine form with 2yo Chains Of Love at York yeasterday.His york form was not so great and one I passed by.Perhaps backing his 2yo’s blindly especially with Curtiss on board might pay dividends.Saturday racing too tricky to be backing anything.Myboyhenry in the 3.50 might be the best chance today 3.50 Sandown but will wait for his 2yo at Doncaster tomorrow and hope its a decent price

  10. Chris M Selections:

    15:20 Hexham – Jacks Last Hope (15/8 gen) GG
    16:50 Downpatrick – Goodthynemilan (4/1 gen) GG
    17:05 Hexham – Apache Pilot (6/1 Bet365, 5/1 gen) RTP
    19:10 Leicester – Areen Heart (5/1 gen) RTP
    19:25 Fontwell – Guerrilla Tactics (10/3 Lads, 3/1 gen) RTP

    Good Luck with your bets!

  11. COLINS BETS
    York
    2.25 Muntadab
    Sandown
    3.15 Via Serendipity
    Chester
    2.40 Neverbeen To Paris
    3.10 Island Cloud
    4.55 Rene Mathis
    4.55 Zac Brown
    Bath
    5.55 Spot Lite

      1. Brilliant work – nice one Colin. Zac Brown is a horse I have followed closely in the past and many of his wins have been preceded by a drift. All the more for the bank!

  12. Fontwell 7.55 Generous Chief 7/1 1 Point each way although i have done 2/3 win 1/3 place
    Bryony got this old boy home in front last time and I feel she can be the key to following up. Has a 4lb rise to contend with which I don’t believe will be an issue with Bryony’s claim.
    The young lady has a great feel with these old stagers and her style can gently persuade this old boy to put his best foot forward again.

    Since start of April on here I’ve staked 19 points and returned 5.9 points profiits over 14 selections.

  13. Mahaarat Sandown 16:25 1pt e/w
    Salt Whistle Bay Sandown 15:15 1pt e/w
    Suitcase n Taxi York 17:15 1pt e/w

    I thought Short Work (York 17:15) and Queens Sargent (York 15:35) were interesting enough to chuck something at.

  14. Facebook… I have entered the 21st Century with a facebook page… if you’re on it and could ‘like’ the page etc, that would be great! There won’t be any stats/tipping content etc on there that isn’t on the blog, but it’s a medium i need to explore! all here… oh and like Martin, you can leave a review if you wish 🙂

    https://www.facebook.com/RacingToProfit/

  15. Ok guys my first pick on here,

    Bath 5.20pm Diamond Pursuit 25/1

    Sire 6 from 15 or 40% last 365 days in sprint races on firm or good to firm.
    I think the horse has been running too far. Back down to 5.5f now.
    Last time ran over CD came 2nd off 66 in a 0-76.
    Goes off an effective 56 in a 0-64 here.
    Admittedly thats adjusting for a 7lb claimer but her last win was a sprint race. other than that i don’t know much about her. Trainer not had a winner since middle of may. But only 13 runs ago. Good Luck if you play.

  16. Miserable day for me and tomorrow looks shite so nothing from me however given ground appears to be confirmed as good have had 1pt e/w on Lord Topper in the 19:55 at Fontwell.

  17. Kodura looks good value 2.40 Doncaster tomorrow 14/1 bet365 and WH.Burke has a decent strike rate with 2yo’s at the track

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