1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.Any general messages/updates etc
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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
FLAT
York
2.20 – Across Dubai (all hncps 5 yrs, 4yo+, + micro class) 30 ES+ 5/2 S3A UP
3.30 – Be kool (m going) G3 16/1 UP
5.15 – Dominada (m going) 18/1 UP 33/1
Chepstow
5.55 –
Swanton Blue (all hncps + 3yo+) 14,30 11/2 WON 11/2>5/1 (various R4s)
Major Valentine (m age) 14 I3 9/1
7.30 –
Operative (all hncps + 3yo+) 14,30 I3 9/1 UP
Nutini (m class + runs) H3 7/2 UP
Dalness Express (m age) 14 G1 12/1 S6 3rd 16/1
8.05 – Quantum Dot (all hncps + 3yo+) w1 14,30 H3 G3 3/1 S5
9.05 – Vincents Forever (all hncps + 3yo+) 14,30 13/2 UP
Goodwood
6.05 –
Poet’s Society (all hncps) H1 I3 11/4 S2 WON 11/4>6/4
Sayesse (m going) 14 I3 20/1 UP
6.35 – Jungle Juice (2YO) 14 11/2 2nd
Sandown
None
JUMPS
Newton Abbot
2.45 – Notarfbad (hncp chase + m class move) 14,30 16/1 S2A UP
3.20 –
Oborne Lady (m TJC) 14,30 40/1 UP (ran well for a long time)
Starlit Night (m class) I314/1 S2 S5 UP
5.00 – Third Act (m class) 14,30 8/1 UP
Aintree
None
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KEY
H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
I1/I3 = Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3
14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers: Flat : HERE Jumps 2017/18: HERE>>>
ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ + (rationale/ angles in link above)
S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start. w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)
The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>
‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)
‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)
Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>
VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>
IMPORTANT: Welcome Info HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :))
Contact: email: – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com
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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)
Test/trial : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 12/135,42p, +5) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)
NOTES
3.30 York – Be Kool– 1 point win – 22/1 (gen) UP, poor, never really travelling.
5.55 Chep – Major Valentine – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) NR (went through stalls, backed into 7/2. Was a jockey change and winner did it well enough, so maybe a blessing, who knows!)
9.05 Chep – Vincents Forever – 1 point win – 6/1 (SB/888) 11/2 (WH) 5/1 (gen) UP, poor.
That will be all for tips (09.23) , write ups on way…
Be Kool – rubbish… I was struggling to work out why on earth he is this big a price given he won the race last year and I can only think this has been the target. He ran ok on his reappearance LTO in a race which has produced a few winners since at C3/2 level. The pace set up looks similar to last year also, as I think he may be able to lead if he wishes or in any case should be in a ‘no excuses’ position on the front end. Last year’s winning jockey returns and Ellison is in ok form, he could maybe do with a few winners but plenty are going close. There is clearly a question about his handicap mark but I can’t say with confidence that it is beyond him as yet and he hasn’t exactly had loads of racing, this his 14th turf handicap start. I thought he should give me a run for my money and this was a silly price. Money for the Appleby horse is interesting given he is one of the few ‘could be anything’ types in here although he will need to be a1 after his break to take this. Short enough, and part of his price will be the SDS factor no doubt. Nigel Tinkler can do no wrong at the moment and I can see why his is 6s also. But, it does look an open race. I was confused as to why Magic City was 18s+, and he may get some change on the machine. Big Mick’s yard may be having a cold spell though but he won LTO over CD only 20 days ago.
Major Valentine NR – 9s>7/2 seemed a bit big for this one in what looks an open race to me, with many having a question or five against them. It could well be that this one is out of form, but his trainer isn’t. When last seen he wasn’t exactly firing them in but since the 29th May he’s had 14 runners, 4 winners, 2 further places. They are going well and hopefully that rubs off on him here. He does take a drop in class which caught the eye and with this excellent apprentice on top, is well handicapped. He should race prominently and I thought he was overpriced. The two above him have questions at the odds. The fav gets another headgear change and the other stats qualifier, Swanton Blue, is 0/22 or so in C5…although he has gone close in plenty. His trainer is red hot and he’s won fresh before. I’d fancy him as a covering bet WON against the Jardine horse. He may also try to lead, but i’m hoping MV can overhaul him late on… it isn’t impossible that these two finish 1-2, if we can get that fav out the frame!
Vincents Forever – the price was going as I deliberated and is still disappearing it seems, so he will have to be declared at 9/2 when he bolts up! 6s was too big to my eyes, 9/2 is getting to where I thought he should be I think, but then again he could go off at 3s and it’s still a decent price. He runs in a C5 flat handicap for the first time here, having won a C4 handicap for Johnny G in 2016 off 80. He tried hurdling for a time with Pipe but now arrives here back in some sort of form for De Giles. He was unlucky the last day and a line can be put through that, given he was starting to get going up the rail when getting squeezed out. SDS couldn’t get after him at all and in the end he just coasted home. I’m not sure he picked up the stick. That was in the race Parole won and was much deeper than this. The fav seemed short for one that is headstrong but does arrive in form and he will try and burn these off from the front. There was some other pace in here that will hopefully take him on, but again, when there is the chance of a lone front runner who could stay there, and I am taking them on, there is always a greater chance of the RFC and it’s only in that scenario that I will bother mentioning them, for interest. Hopefully the selection has more class than the fav. DC has ridden him before so his booking could be a positive in that context. You can just back the trainer’s runners here blind, 13/48,22p the last 5 years, +36 SP to £1 stakes – all runners. He is 4/15,8p in the last 14 days, so bang in form also.
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Elsewhere… I looked at Starlit Night at 14s/16s as she went well until 3 out over CD 11 days ago. I suspect she needed it and there is every chance she comes on plenty for that effort. She also races on the pace and may try and make all. I was a bit on the fence, especially as she is 1/18 and has appeared to throw the towel in plenty of times before, her only win being a weak enough c5 novice handicap hurdle, those races where nothing really likes winning. I have thrown a 1/4 point at her at 16s, just in case I have got that wrong and she makes all. But it may take another run or two. If you take the fav out then this does appear open enough, the second fav is unexposed/could be anything/taking a step up in distance and should come on for the last run, so I can see why the money has come for that. Oborne Lady may be one for the longer term..3rd handicap hurdle and excuses for the last two, and Mullins is in form. I have seen worse 40/1 shots but the market is usually some guide, his bigger priced handicap hurdle winners are hard to find… 4/221 those with an SP 22/1 or bigger. One to track, hopefully!
Sayesse below for the recent tips ‘test’, may be another worth some change at 20s as he is just the sort to fall in at some point. I couldn’t tip him and wouldn’t want more than 5 on in what seems a deeper race than those he has contested recently. But, he does get a 1st time hood (i didn’t think he races keenly etc, but it is doing something different) and Channon is in decent form. His jockey has yet to ride a winner but not many goes and a few placed efforts. He does strike me as horse who could just pop up at a price as I think his issues may all be in the head. He has been abject on recent runs though, and it takes some leap of faith to support him fully. I’m not sure even his best would be good enough to win this.
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Re cap… a couple of non runners yesterday was as good as it got!! 🙂 The other two will be winning more races I think but they didn’t run very well. The Hannon horse travelled like the winner and was last off the bridle to my eye, but he didn’t really find much or stay on as hoped. He’d run plenty of good races on fast turf before so I don’t want to blame that, but maybe he didn’t want to fully exert himself on it. Either that or he didn’t actually stay the trip at that track. He is still lightly raced and before this was running like a horse in form/about to go close with a race run to suit. They raced him up there also, which to me suggests they were no confident in his stamina. Anyway, one to keep an eye on and hopefully he will be adding to that profit pile below at some point on his next three runs! Daring Guest ran a strange race..a ‘not today’ sort of run which I don’t like saying… given the winner has effectively made all up the rail I think, i’m not sure they have blasted along here, so i can’t work out why he was so detached out the back and seemingly outpaced. His jockey was pushing along to keep him interested very early in the race, so maybe I am being harsh. He did close and make some sort of move on the wing/marooned up the middle, but that soon flattened out. Who knows, but he should have a C6 handicap in him again when it all clicks. I was right about the trainer coming into some sort of form, and indeed the TJC combo here…given they had a 33/1 winner earlier on the card. Sadly it was in a 3YO only handicap, which I rarely look at and the stats don’t cover. Clearly I should have made an effort to note their other runners on the day! All round, a disappointing run from both.
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Recent Tips
(running total, from 07/06/18: 3/12,4p, +22.5)
6.05 Good – Sayesse
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3.Micro System Test Zone
Flat
R Fell
3.30 York – Tadaawol UP
Jumps
P Brennan (14/1< guide)
6.50 Aint – No Duffer
7.55 Aint – Un beau Roman
A Honeyball
4.30 NA – Port Royale (m1, 10/1< guide, m2 5/1<)
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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)
6.50 Aint- Good Man Vinnie
4.Any general messages/updates etc
Blessed... well, she has run a cracker and no complaints. Sadly that ground has dried up plenty it seems and like Yarmouth (which was eventually changed to officially firm) was plenty firm enough, with ‘firm’ in places entering the going description. She has changed legs again plenty of times, around 12 or so according to Amy who knows what she’s looking at. You can tell she hated it given the way she darted from the whip late on, which she has never done. She knew she was being asked for maximum effort but just couldn’t go through with it I don’t think. She did take it up 1-2 furlongs from home and it was exciting. It could be ‘good’ is as firm as she wants it but it’s a hard one to get right, and you don’t really know on the day until you run them. If she keeps trying like that, a few more wins at C6/5 level will be added to her CV. SP2A tipped the winner at 20s, which softened the blow somewhat.
As per yesterday’s note, the Twitter feed is now fixed to the right hand side of the home page (when on desktop/tablet) and you can scroll through if you so wish from time to time.
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46 Responses
Society Red York Friday 14:20 1pt e/w
Theflyingportrait Aintree Friday 19:55 1pt e/w
Parnassian Goodwood Friday 18:05 1.5pt win
Tadleel Goodwood Friday 20:15 1pt e/w
Good luck Nick, I am afraid I have cursed you with The Flying Portrait! I fancy it strongly too.
Hi Nick, just wondering, do you have an up-to-date figure for profit in 2018? i’m sure you’ve posted it here recently but can’t seem to find it and I think you’ve had a few biggies go in since then. TIA
Bosh! a Nick special to kick off the afternoon. Hosed up, very well done
And we’re off! (bit of a break until the next one)
Great stuff again mate!
excellent work nick 🙂 ….. first time i have managed to get on the correct hanagan horse ..if i do he normally downs his tools and if i don’t he romps in !!! we are all under your spell nick .. just brilliant 🙂
Wow Wow Wow good job you are winning Nick mine are running like they have 2 stone overweight,thanks and keep it up please.
Thanks very much Nick
Terrific stuff Nick…was away and just missed your 1st winner….Great stuff mate.
Tony Mc.
Your certainly on fire right now Nick. Please dont cool down! Top tipping.
just one for tomorrow,
York 3-30. Classic Seniority 12-1 skybet paying 5 places.
results to date 14 selections 1 wins,3 places, staked 14 pts returns 9.25 pts down 4.75 pts
n/r so on to tomorrow
i’ll be having a small punt in the 2-20 York on Briardale, hard to forgive his last 4 runs but has won at course and at distance, likes the going and has won of this mark. skybet paying 4 places £3-50 ew
a couple more at York,
4-40. Excellent Times 9-1 bv , went well for a long way into the race lto and should like the drop back in distance
5-15. Dominada 18-1 sky 4 places, first time back on flat for a while but has been running well over hurdles, can take it on from the front and if he gets an easy lead will be hard to peg back as he won’t be stopping, the 18’s looks generous.
Yeah I also had a saver on that. First time headgear and SDS also pluses.
Here we go today!
15:30 York
BE KOOL 14/1 gen 1pt ew
Trainer Brian Ellison seems to think he can win again and i will tend to agree with him, think Hamilton was just to blow the cobwebs off and course form here is worth two in the bush, yes he`s 10lbs higher, but, if he is on his game, he will blow these away! Cam Hardie back on board also, nearly same route he took last year, surely been overlooked by quite a few, not me though!
STARLIGHT ROMANCE 14/1 gen 1pt ew
Mr Fahey has a really good record here, think his record this season is the best he has ever had and this horse is a speed merchant, clocking some useful results along the way.She will strip fitter and i think this race was the plan for her after her 7th lto over c and d.
That’s all for today/tomorrow, all the best with whatever you back.
Are you sure about Fahey at York Stewart. His five year record is 638 runners, 38 winners striking at 5.96%. To a £1 stake over that period he has lost £226. He did do better at the last meeting though.
Maybe I should have put, up to this point of the season at York, in that sentence.
He seems to be going just fine Roddo 😉
Definitely today. a good 10/1-7/1 winner Nick. Well done yet again.
In fairness, his overall stats here/and in handicaps are quite abject against number of runners he has BUT, in last year before today, him and Hannagan were 2/20,7p I think, from memory, which given the nature of racing here is decent. Makes sense as he is the main man. Those stats improved now.
In last 2 years, before today, Fahey was 3/70 over 10f at York… with Hannagan… 3/12,6p ! Now 4/13, 7p.
Stats dont matter when Nick M,Stewart and SP2A tip em. Well done lads
Well done Stewart, the two Fahey winners covered a plenty on here. Top work.
LTO Losers
Sayesse – (Goodwood, 18:05)
Race: 3r Apprentice Handicap12/1
FTO 29/05 Brighton
Timeform 11/2, fourth of 7 in a handicap at Brighton (7f, good) 17 days ago. A hood on the 1st time. Something to find on the form.
GL today
Mike
Hi Mike,
I’ve been trawling through my filing system (backs of envelopes, betting slips etc in carrier bags) and found quite a few going back to October. I’ll list what I’ve got probably Sun/Mon but makes interesting reading. I only backed one’s that I noticed when going through the cards but will backcheck the rest. Even if the one’s I missed failed in 3 runs I’d still be in profit.
Extra for today
Theflyingportrait
1st Noted by Josh 12/4 and lost @ 33 (odds I backed at)
Ran again 13/5 and lost @ 9’s
Running today @ A7.55 and Nick has also tipped.
Past Notes runnign today are Viconte du Noyer, 1st Nt’d 14/4 when a nr but had 3 strikes and Nutini C 7.30, 1st nt’d 2/10/17 when 2nd @ 7, has had a few runs and won a couple but odds have all been shit.
ps, had a crap few months being probed and tested to find why I was passing out and also had my driving licence suspended because of it which irked no end but was understandable. The medics now agree that one of my regular meds was the probable cause and since ceasing use no recurrence and licence unsuspended but told not to ride the Triumph for 3 months just in case. I didn’t realise how depressed I’d become until I was told on Monday that I could drive again and I now feel stones lighter. I had to have my hair shorn for the last brain test so no longer have a duxass.
Mike
Good to hear you’re back on the mend Mike. If you have a list that would be great, I didn’t go through my free tips/3m chase tips etc, given plenty more may be in the unexposed camp…but I did go through probably 1 year + ago, and I think the same approach worked..it’s just thinking about the logic for why it should… with the members tips it’s clear, esp the majority that are unexposed and when tipping i’ve deemed them of enough interest based on recent form/trainer/doing something different etc, and it makes sense that they should perform at some point. With the unexposed ones, esp chasers… I suppose I may have picked up a profile, or deemed them to be coming into form, or indeed they were now well handicapped, below winning marks etc, so again would make sense for them to run ok at some point soon enough. Interesting.
I did look at TheFlyingPortrait as when I say Nick had tipped it I remembered doing so myself when last running here. his price was going somewhat and I didn’t think he would get an easy time on the front end personally, nor could think of a valid reason for why he was so poor LTO, unless he does just sulk when not getting an easy lead. He will make all in a 2m hncp chase again at some point, and hopefully it’s today given Nick has tipped him!
Pleased to hear you’re feeling better ‘Titus’.
Stars in my eyes!
320 Starlit Night
330 Starlight Romance
450 Starlight Mystery
3x£2 win singles
£1 EW Trixie
Two losers, one win 14/1.
Profit £12.
The Third bet in the ‘starting points’ sequence:-
650A Good Man Vinnie £10 (1%) win BSP
Results: L, 6/4 (using industry prices for this but all bets to BSP).
Profit: £6.72
Non runner.
Poor day yesterday with only one win, quite a few were close but it’s the win that counts!
Chris M Selections:
14:10 Newton Abbot – Ring A Ding Dong (9/2 gen) OCP
16:50 Sandown – Beringer (2/1 gen) GG
17:00 Newton Abbot – Key To The West (4/1 gen) GG
19:30 Chepstow – Nutini (10/3 gen) GG & RTP * Advised as 2 point bet
COLINS BETS
6.05 Goodwood Poets Society
7.30 Chepstow Nutini
Bowen Horses, June/July
I read here recently that he was worth following in these months.
He has 2 running today with both his sons riding. Not the worst bet I have placed.
5.45 A Atomic Rumble 4/1
2.10NA Play the Aces 13/2
Mike
Hi Josh,
As discussed earlier in the week, would you get chance to have a look through the card at York tomorrow for me and my football team?
Cheers,
Aidan.
Hi Aidan, yep, no problem. It’s on the list!
i mean it’s an easy looking card, uncompetitive small field handicaps, no bother… ahem! Blimey it looks tough, but i’ll do my best. I may create a ‘team RTP’ through the card/influence and with any luck some others may have some strong fancies!
Will be posted at some point, latest between 11-12pm on Sat.
Josh
Brilliant mate, any pointers will be much appreciated.
Hi Josh
Did you say earlier in the week you are going to Aintree tonight ?
I will be there as one of the syndicate horses is running in the 17-45 race Final Choice and have been balloted an owners badge so that’s a bonus hopefully has a good chance 10/1 at bet 365 at minute
Also I am being taken to Doncaster on Sunday for Fathers Day so I know you usually have quiet sundays but if any chance you can look at the card would be appreciated
Peter L
Hi Peter,
Enjoy tonight and good luck. I deliberated going and would have done were it not for a music night, which has sent the ticket up to £40, for an ok card. It is decent enough actually for a friday summer jumps meet. But, don’t think I will be going. Plenty to do for Sat and i’m prob behind on Royal Ascot prep! So, a night watching all the meetings on RUK I suspect, with a whisky, and some research thrown in! Living the dream 🙂
Yep I won’t promise anything for Sunday, not sure on weekend plans as yet, so will keep you posted!
Josh
Hi Josh
Thanks I was thinking of not going due ticket price but as got allocated owners badge yesterday and is only 45mins from Manchester then will be there for the race but will probably not stay long after
No probs if you cannot do Sunday
Have a good evening watching and looking forward to a profitable Ascot
Peter L
Forgot to say… Amy and Lemos were quietly confident of a big run from MAZEO LAD in the 2.55 York, have had a small nibble at 10s.. it is an open race given all unexposed, but he is miles clear on GG ratings, and steps up to 6f…not sure to suit to my eyes but could be 5f has been taking out of comfort zone/too quick too soon, hence fading, rather than not staying. We shall see how he goes!
hmm, that wasn’t very good! 🙂 moving on.
Can someone tell me what is/where is SP2A – still finding my away around. Thanks in advance.
Hi Steve, ah yes that could be confusing to anyone new! It isn’t my service, it is a tipping/race adviser service that I have advised my email list/readers/members to take a look at if they so wish, a perfect addition to any portfolio. We have done three special 3 month offers now, Oct- Dec, Jan-Mach/April and the final one which I pushed a few weeks back through all the channels a couple of weeks back , for June-Aug. Quite a few have tried in that time and 75% or so have stayed, and seem content enough. They are the only ‘tips’ I really follow outside of my own content. there is a link/advert to the right on desktop, i’m sure if you used their contact form and get in touch with Ian he may add you in on that deal if you wished, but no idea. We will do another one at some point later in the year no doubt, but depends on numbers and how Ian (his service) feels about any more etc. It isn’t for everyone, as with anything, but I think the majority who have signed up are pleased I flagged them etc. by all means feel free to email me to discuss further. You are of course free to sign up through them as anyone may do normally, but we did a 3 month 1/2 price and money back guarantee if losing to SP in that 3 month period. They appear to have hit form again after a minor lull, which was expected given their mad form a few months back. Josh
Steve, Sp2a are a fantastic tipping service, I paid for a 6 month subscription following on from the trial with Josh and can categorically say that you won’t find a better one. Sure they have losers and apparently their tipping methods aren’t for everyone but that doesn’t make much sense to me. Apparently not everyone wanted the Guineas winner mentioned at 100 to 1 ?!? They use different tipsters that specialise in different areas and rotate them depending on certain factors. Sure, you may have to tailor it to suit you but, Ian, who the buck appears to stop with if things don’t go to plan is an apologist in much the same way that Josh is, he appears to take it personally if you lose money. In conclusion, sign yourself up for the next trial and see for yourself. I doubt that you’ll regret it. One selection today. Won about 14s I think. Cheers , hope this helps .