Members Daily Post: 14/06/18 (complete)

Tips (x4) Section 1 (comp) test zone, Blessed /other updates

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Newbury

3.30 – 

Madeline Bond (m age) 14 6/1 UP

Himself (m runs) G3 14/1 UP

 

Notts

3.50 – Socialites Red (all hncps) 9/1 UP

4.20 – Sarabi (all hncps + class) 22/1 UP

5.30 – Best Tamayuz (all hncps + m class) H3 I1 10/1 S2 S6 

 

Yarmouth 

3.40 – Strictly Magic (all hncps 5 yrs, all hncps) (hncp debut) ES+  9/1 S3A UP

5.20 – 

Daring Guest (m TJC) I1 12/1 S6 UP 20/1 

Moi Aussie (m dist) I3 9/1 UP

 

Haydock

6.20 – Archipeligo (all hncps) H3 I3 G3 5/1 S4 S5 2nd 

6.55 – Big Time Maybe (all hncps) ES+  22/1 S3A UP

7.55 – Escobar (m TJC + age) H3 I3 9/4 WON 10/3

8.25 – 

Punkawallah (4yo+ 5 yrs, all hncps, m TJC) ES+ G1 15/2 S3A S6 UP

Daawy (m TJC + age) 9/1 3rd 

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

6.10 – 

Martha’s Benefit (all hncps) (hncp debut) (trainer change)14,30 ES 20/1 S2A S3  UP

Western Breeze (m TJC) 14,30 ES+  4/1 S3A UP

8.45 – Intifadah (m TJC) (trainer change)14,30  2/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 12/135,42p, +5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

3.30 Newb – Himself – 1 point win – 14/1 (PP/BV) 12/1 (gen) UP

5.20 Yarm – Daring Guest – 1 point win – 16/1 (PP) 14/1 (gen) UP

5.30 Notts – Best Tamayuz (1 point win – 10/1 (WH) 9/1 + 17/2 (gen)  non runner

8.25 Hayd – Parole – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 

That will be all for tips,(08.47) 

 

Himself – 12s or so seemed big to my eyes for this one given he is unexposed over 8f in handicaps and he has been poorly positioned the last twice/the races haven’t been run to suit. I’ve watched his last two races back and he arrives here in form, running on strongly the last day having been held up in a race run at a moderate tempo and getting no run for a while as they turned for home. In the run before that at Nottingham he was held up in a race where it paid to be front rank. He had to attack down the outside of the pack and ran on well enough, considering the energy he probably used mid race. I thought in this big field he may have some more pace to attack and/or now they may be more confident in his stamina, they may race him closer to the pace. He’s won his 7f races from being handy before and I don’t know why they’d keep holding him up. In any case, given his profile, I thought this price was generous enough in an open looking race. Trainer/jockey are 3/16,5p in handicaps here and Hannon is 9/44,22p, +51 in handicaps at the track run on Good to Firm.  

Daring Guest – the last time this one ran in a C6 he won, and that happened to be over CD. He has been running well enough to my eyes and now steps back up to 7f in a race with a fair bit of pace on paper and he drops in class. His mark has also been coming down. I thought this price was too big for a yard whose horses are starting to run well. This one was outpaced over 6f at Brighton LTO where they run down hill for a time and it was a C5. He was taken off his feet but was doing all his best work late and running on at the finish. I didn’t think there would be an excuse today and his price was a tad insulting as to his chance. We shall see if that’s right come 5.25 or so. 

Parole – probably one of those I’m never destined to get right. He was tipped a couple of starts back and the ‘mentioned’ when winning LTO 16s>8s, when he could have been tipped but I bottled it on basis of the going- which was an unknown. He was stepping up in trip which was a big positive and the TT returned. Having watched his last race back I thought he won a shade cosily and there was more in the tank. I also watched back his run in a C3 last season and to my eye, with a clear run, he’d have won that. I think he has more progress in him this year and this price is a few points too big. They remove the TT which is a niggle/concern but he has won without it. Maybe his trainer thinks he’s still well handicapped and has his eye on a slightly bigger pot. If he doesn’t pick up/goes up and down on the spot/stops, then maybe he definitely does need it but a bit inconclusive at the moment. Provided that isn’t a hindrance, I saw no reason why he shouldn’t go close here. He should have some pace to aim at, unless Kingscote gets loose on the front end and he may be worth a saver, but he looks out of form to me Hopefully he is ridden handy enough and RR gets after him early, as he does respond and keeps going, as 12f is within range. I’ll fire one more dart at him here. The fav deserves his place up there but he moved up in class and was whacked with lead, although he was impressive LTO and you’d have thought would be thereabouts. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

R Fell

8.55 Hayd – Ad Libitum 7/2  2nd nose 9/2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Blessed To Empress

4.20 Notts… I’m hopeful of a good run here and wouldn’t put anyone off a small EW wager with 4 places to aim at. There are two concerns… 1. whether this ground may be a tad firm again… there is a question over GF but it was ‘Firm’ at Yarmouth which she hated, changing legs at least 7 times. She ran ok but wasn’t happy. Hopefully this ground is ok. 2. The draw…the stalls are stand side and I’d be more confident of a solid run were she a tad higher. This race, and whether she can be top 4/place/win, may all rest on the start and whether she can bounce out. There are not any out and out front runners in here although I’d expect the Quinn and Appleby horses to be up there. She should be on the premises and hopefully can slowly tac across to the middle to near side. But, plenty needs to go right. She could well end up marooned up the middle a tad. She’s in good form at home and fingers crossed for a big run. She is the sort who may well hover around this handicap mark and win every now and then when it all drops right. She has won twice for us already, and she always tries. She also gets the weight for age allowance which will help, as she isn’t the biggest. But it does make her look well treated against plenty in here. Fingers crossed. 

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Twitter…you may have noticed the odd new minor upgrade to the site, when on desktop/tablet (not mobile as yet). I have added a twitter box to the right hand side if you scroll down, and you may find the odd musing of interest in there from those who don’t have twitter. You can scroll through all of my tweets etc, and may find the odd post of interest. 

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Royal Ascot 2018: Plans

I plan to focus on the below races each day, with any relevant stats/trends/trainer pointers/shortlists. This is not a week I really ‘tip’ in and isn’t anything like how I attack the Jumps Festivals, but with any luck some info of interest. I suspect all of these will be posted on the free posts, which have been quiet enough in recent weeks. 

  • Tuesday: 5pm The Ascot Stakes
  • Wed: 5pm The Royal Hunt Cup
  • Thursday: 5pm The Brittania Stakes / 5.35 The King George V Stakes
  • Friday: 5.35 The Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes
  • Sat: 5pm The Wokingham Stakes

 

In addition to the above I will pull together some focussed stats/micros on trainers and jockeys. I will share these when I have researched them fully, and this report/qualifiers will be posted in the members’ posts. With any luck following the right connections/people may help find some big priced winners and ensure we have some fun. It isn’t a massive punting week for me, plenty of £5 thrown around like confetti (relative to my £20 per point tipping stakes) for fun/interest more than anything. But, we shall see how it goes. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

31 Responses

  1. What goes up must eventually coming crashing down and finally so we did. Terrible day of racing tomorrow. Just the one I like.

    Sarabi Nottingham Thursday 16:20 1pt e/w-Price taken 28-33/1 (5 places in one spot-will record at 28/1 4 places)-This looks like an absolutely shocking race. The selection ran a solid race at Thirsk 2 starts ago on what looked like the wrong side of the track 2 lengths behind a horse who has since won a class 4. That was the first ever time he has ever ran well off a break. His last 2 good races on the flat have both been on fast ground. Trainer has a solid record here (after I picked him I noticed he appears on Josh’s stats also which is a plus). Jockey has yet to ride him on the flat but is 1/4, 3p on him on the AW. This race is fairly pace-less although what pace there is appears to be high. They have made all with him in the past and I am hoping they do so again here. He was a head 2nd 12 months ago off 60 and races off 48 here. In the context of all this his price looked way too big.

    1. nice write up Nick , had a small punt at 33’s last night best price now 25’s as low as 16’s in places and only 20.0 on the exchange at the moment, Blessed seems to be going the other way 14’s last night 22’s now most places, 25’s bfs and 36.0 on the exchange.

      1. Bless me old socks …. bless to impress being plunged upon from a great height .. no joshing !!

        gl …… had 2.00 on at 32.00 on betfair earlier .. early worm and all that 🙂 ….. must try and get the sfc and tricast ??? \hhhhhhhhhh dream dream dreams 🙂

        gl
        blessed are the impressors !!! 🙂

  2. Humble Gratitude made it 2-2 for Karl Burke Focus this week,it returned around 9/1 after rule 4 making it 21pts profit so far.Has a scattering of runners across 3 tracks tomorrow.Ben Curtiss takes the ride on True Mason 1.40 Nottingham,2yo’s flying at present but its 3/1,no value in that win or lose.His 2 at Yarmouth,Chantresse 3.40 and Mametz Wood 4.10 could run ok and Broken Force might 8.55 haydock may improve for a change of trip but all in all its a day to see how they run rather than betting.Just got lucky today finding his sole winner

    1. ah doing yourself a disservice Gerry, you spotted Curtis was on/the jockey change etc, went for one at a price, nothing lucky about that! 🙂

    2. Gearoid
      3/1 may be too tight for you and others but I had a tenner on True Mason and I am £30 better off than I would have been if I hadn’t read your post.
      So cheers mate

  3. Here with today’s,

    CRICKLEWOOD GREEN 14/1 gen 1 pt ew
    He is a bit of a temperamental sort, but, has course form and the booking of Atzeni is a bit eye catching, he could finish out the back of the tv, but, if he is on a going day could land a blow.
    KEEPERS CHOICE 9/1 gen 1 pt ew
    Lightly raced filly, who has had the cobwebs blown off in that last race at Chepstow after a 7 month absence, she will come here fitter and although climbing in class, she is bottom weight, with Mr Egan taking another 3lb off she should use her speed to see her home (2nd rated on the topspeed figures in RP).

    Just one today to get my teeth into. Old Grade 1 course etc, rest of today’s look mediocre.

  4. your doing yourself a disservice with the Irish angle result Josh,
    6.50 Punch – Monbeg Chit Chat WON 7/2 / Mullinavet UP / Our Dougal 2nd 11/1
    Mullinavet was 3rd , tricast paid 177-59, i didn’t have a penny on unfortunately 🙂

    1. Ah yes. If only, the tricast always looks good post race! 🙂 Henry does like his summer chase winners, I think he must have plenty bred to appreciate better ground, and they usually jump very well. I did look at the winner for tipping purposes but was 7/2 in morning which was short enough for a LTO faller, albeit one who was going well and looked likely winner. Still, good to see him in form and with any luck a decent summer ahead for those, he will have the odd biggie just fall in out of nowhere.

  5. LTO losers

    Forgot to mention PAROLE was a LTO loser noted by Josh on 25/05 went out again 28/05 and won at 8/1 BOG 16s. For those wishing to keep following this will be his 2nd outing since Josh first TIPPED him.

    I see he has TIPPED him again. Well in we go again.

    GL guys top up the bank before Royal Ascot?

    Mike

  6. HI PEOPLE 🙂

    DOES ANYONE KNOW OF A WEBSITE THAT WILL/DOES LIST WHETHER THE HORSE WAS A “NR” LTO ..OR NOT AS THE CASE OBVIOUSLY IS 🙂 ??

    1. The Racing Post “out and about” section of Signposts is very useful. It gives trainers’ records with horses which have been withdrawn for a particular reason. You need to buy the paper or subscribe.

  7. COLINS BETS
    Yarmouth
    3.05 Bounderby
    5.20 Moi Aussie
    Nottingham
    3.50 Socialites Red
    5.30 Traveltalk Jockey Ben Robinson back in the plate after winning on it 7 races ago.
    Haydock
    8.25 Mooltazem
    8.25 Daawy
    8.55 Ad Libitum

  8. Chris M Selections:

    16:20 Nottingham – Agueroo ( 5/1 gen) GG
    19:45 Uttoexeter – Whoshotwho (5/1 in places, 9/2 gen) GG
    20:15 Uttoexeter – Cotton Club (11/2 gen) GG & OCP * Advised as 2 point bet
    20:15 Uttoexeter – Holyrale (13/8 gen) GG
    20:55 Haydock – Ad Libitum (7/2 gen) RTP

    That’s all from me today, good luck with your bets today!

  9. Not an account bet i have had £20 on the nose on
    5.20 Yarmouth Wild Acclaim who won yesterday at Yarmouth and the trainer put up a 7lb claimer today who was 3rd on it 3 races ago and Wild Acclaim as a very good draw.
    The account bet Moi Aussie tried a mile last time but is back at 7 furlongs today over CD where it won 2 races ago.

  10. ROYAL ASCOT
    Here is a snippet for RA races and a SIRE.
    Those with HRB would you be able to come back with horses sired by SCAT DADDY at RA.?
    Also would you be able to highlight 4yo’s with over 11 career starts at RA for elimination purposes?

    Royal Ascot since 2010
    Horses aged 4
    Running in any and every race
    With over 17 runs were 0-45
    No 4yo won with over 17 runs

    4-year-olds with over 11 runs
    Had a pretty modest 5-227 record

    If you ignore Group 1 races
    Horses aged 4
    Over 11 career starts
    Have a miserable 1-169 record

    Royal Ascot since 2004
    Horses aged 3
    Running in any and every race
    Those with 11 or more runs
    Have a 0-46 record since 2004
    We need to oppose all 3-year-olds
    That had 12 or more career starts.

    Best Royal Ascot Sire
    SCAT DADDY

    15 runners
    8 winners
    53.33% Strike rate

    Hope this is of some use.

    Mike

    1. Scat Daddy offspring at Royal Ascot…

      8/15 (53.33% SR) 2 of the losers placed
      +41.46pts at ISP and +68.59pts at BFSP

        1. May be the last year or two given he sadly passed away. AOB will have trained most of those I suspect and will be interesting if he has any this year. On one angle I’m looking at with Scatt D/War Front/zoffany/Deep Impact he is 8/25,14p +76 BFSP last 5 meets. I’ll share etc from tommorrow. Currently on a train.

          Will look at sires and won’t be hard to highlight any Scatt Ds running. They clearly appreciate the general decent going and more to point races run at a pace/speed/stamina I suspect. A unique blend needed this week and many of his offspring clearly have it.

  11. PAULSBETS 2 points lost yesterday running total 10.8 points todays bet DOURADO 3.30 newbury 1 point each way good luck

  12. I know Josh is busy, so will tip these up now and then copy onto members post in morning,

    15:30 York
    BE KOOL 14/1 gen 1pt ew
    Trainer Brian Ellison seems to think he can win again and i will tend to agree with him, think Hamilton was just to blow the cobwebs off and course form here is worth two in the bush, yes he`s 10lbs higher, but, if he is on his game, he will blow these away! Cam Hardie back on board also, nearly same route he took last year, surely been overlooked by quite a few, not me though!
    STARLIGHT ROMANCE 14/1 gen 1pt ew
    Mr Fahey has a really good record here, think his record this season is the best he has ever had and this horse is a speed merchant, clocking some useful results along the way.She will strip fitter and i think this race was the plan for her after her 7th lto over c and d.

    That’s all for today/tomorrow, all the best with whatever you back.

  13. Ive already put quite a hefty bet on Lady Aurelia (Scat Daddy offspring) in the King Stand Stakes at 7/2.

    Not the most original pick but she has absolutely hosed up at the festival the last 2 years and I cant believe shes not favorite. As much as i like Bataash I don’t think hes in the same league as Lady A

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