Free Daily Post: 14/06/18 (complete)

Section 4 from the members’ post today…

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Blessed To Empress

(I own 5% of this one, and Really Super, both with White Diamond Racing/in training with Amy Murphy)

4.20 Notts… I’m hopeful of a good run here and wouldn’t put anyone off a small EW wager with 4 places to aim at. There are two concerns… 1. whether this ground may be a tad firm again… there is a question over GF but it was ‘Firm’ at Yarmouth which she hated, changing legs at least 7 times. She ran ok but wasn’t happy. Hopefully this ground is ok. 2. The draw…the stalls are stand side and I’d be more confident of a solid run were she a tad higher. This race, and whether she can be top 4/place/win, may all rest on the start and whether she can bounce out. There are not any out and out front runners in here although I’d expect the Quinn and Appleby horses to be up there. She should be on the premises and hopefully can slowly tac across to the middle to near side. But, plenty needs to go right. She could well end up marooned up the middle a tad. She’s in good form at home and fingers crossed for a big run. She is the sort who may well hover around this handicap mark and win every now and then when it all drops right. She has won twice for us already, and she always tries. She also gets the weight for age allowance which will help, as she isn’t the biggest. But it does make her look well treated against plenty in here. Fingers crossed. (update… no idea why she is 33/1 in places! She does have to prove it in conditions but that is a silly price) 

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Twitter…you may have noticed the odd new minor upgrade to the site, when on desktop/tablet (not mobile as yet). I have added a twitter box to the right hand side if you scroll down, and you may find the odd musing of interest in there from those who don’t have twitter. You can scroll through all of my tweets etc, and may find the odd post of interest. 

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Royal Ascot 2018: Plans

I plan to focus on the below races each day, with any relevant stats/trends/trainer pointers/shortlists. This is not a week I really ‘tip’ in and isn’t anything like how I attack the Jumps Festivals, but with any luck some info of interest. I suspect all of these will be posted on the free posts, which have been quiet enough in recent weeks. 

  • Tuesday: 5pm The Ascot Stakes
  • Wed: 5pm The Royal Hunt Cup
  • Thursday: 5pm The Brittania Stakes / 5.35 The King George V Stakes
  • Friday: 5.35 The Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes
  • Sat: 5pm The Wokingham Stakes

 

In addition to the above I will pull together some focussed stats/micros on trainers and jockeys. I will share these when I have researched them fully, and this report/qualifiers will be posted in the members’ posts. With any luck following the right connections/people may help find some big priced winners and ensure we have some fun. It isn’t a massive punting week for me, plenty of £5 thrown around like confetti (relative to my £20 per point tipping stakes) for fun/interest more than anything. But, we shall see how it goes. 

 

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About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

11 Comments

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  • Thursday 13th June Newbury, Nottingham and Yarmouth
    I didn’t like the look of the top rated ones much yesterday and so it turned out for a loss of 3pts.
    Newbury 1.20 6.5f Novice
    Ratings
    1. Daafr, Neverland Rock, Wise Council
    2. Confiding, Forseti, Glorious Lover, Manton Warrior, Mr Spirit,
    3. Almurr, Azets, Nathless, Star Terms
    Ratings bet: 1pt win Almurr
    An exciting looking race, last years was won by 80/1 Bullington Bandit with Anna Nerium back in 6th. The lesson to take from this is that it is still early in the season and there may be some stars in the field but it is likely to be won by the fittest and readiest. The better ones will have plenty left to work on. One of these may win by dint of raw ability but it could just as easily be a lesser character. Daafr is the current favourite owned by Hissa Hamdan Maktoum, presumably the daughter which explains Jim Crowley up. Neverland Rock is a 480k No Nay Never colt, none of his 14 debutants have won but that is a tiny sample. Doubt that the Hannons will have it wizzed up. Wise Council and Confiding looks the most likely of the newcomers to me but I think Almurr stands out at a current 6/1 with 365. Below are my comments abut his run behind the very scopey Fanaar at Leicester. His performance will give a good clue to Fanaar’s ability and his previous experience should stand him in with a great chance of a place.
    Almurr – an unflattering picture with Adam Kirby up. Better to look at his unsaddled photo. Pretty fit and ran alongside Fanaar for most of the race. Adam Kirby uncharacteristically dropped his whip out a furlong out having given Almurr just one tap and he then coasted home. Room for lots of improvement here. 79

    More to follow
    Hugh

    alpha2 4 months ago Reply


    • Just a note to say I can’t resist a further small bet in the Newbury race at the prices.
      Further Ratings bets .5pt win both Confiding and Wise Counsel.
      Nottingham 1.40 6f Novice
      1. Finoah
      2. Langholm, Superceded, True Mason
      Looks a very average heat. No Bet
      Yarmouth 2.30 6f fillies maiden
      1. Assembly Of Truth, Elsaabiqaat
      2. Alabama Dreaming, Kareena Kapoor, Pretty Polyanna, Swiss Air
      Looks like Assembly Of Truth is the probable winner but not a ratings bet at 7/4
      Haydock 7.25 7f Novice
      Ratings
      1. Certain Lad, Dombra, Drogon, Pablo Escobarr
      2. Sword Of Gold
      Another race like Newbury where the rivals will have to be listed class to beat the experienced favourite. One of them might be but I don’t want to pay to find out. No Bet

      alpha2 4 months ago Reply


      • Great tipping Hugh, hope you did the forecast, 135/1!!!!

        Jim 4 months ago Reply


      • Well I’m glad you went back for those other couple of bets – I got 20/1 confiding. Sod’s law that you probably talked yourself out of some forecasts / tricasts, but still a great start to the day.

        Thanks Hugh!

        neilmck 4 months ago Reply


        • Had a wretched hospital day this morning and couldn’t get to Newbury or watch on RUK. didn’t even have time to think about forecasts etc. I know its after timing but I came really close to putting up Pretty Polyanna at Yarmouth too, but in the way we punters do was still carrying the bruises from yesterday and so didn’t put her up and went .5pt on Confiding instead of 1pt. Temperament issues. I’m happy to back Sp2a blind yet made the classic mistake of reducuing stakes after a losing run of three on my own picks.
          Thanks for the kind comments.
          Hugh

          alpha2 4 months ago Reply


          • Nice one mate

            George Simpson 4 months ago Reply


  • 13:50 Newbury, Solar Echo, 1 point win, 7/2 generally
    Solar Echo was an unconsidered 25/1 on her racecourse debut at Windsor in May and was a little slow to start. 3 furlongs out and she was still 10th of 12 runners but she made steady progress under only hands and heels riding to finish a closing fifth. The Windsor race looks up to scratch, with the second placed horse, Four White Socks, winning easily at Goodwood last week. Given the starting price, the way the race unfolded and the tender handling there will probably be above average improvement today and that will give her a leading chance of winning. Solar Echo’s trainer, Martyn Meade, has been quiet since switching to Manton from Newmarket but had a winner and a second place from just 5 runners in the past 2 weeks and he looks about to hit form. Oisin Murphy is a noteworthy booking as he has ridden 5 winners from 23 rides for the yard in the past five seasons (22%) and replaces Callum Shepherd, who is 0 for 2 when riding for Meade in the same time period.
    Mind your “Solar’s” in this as there are 2 prominent in the betting. Solar Gold finished third in the same Windsor race that Solar Echo was fifth in but that was her second start and she didn’t improve much for her debut run. It would be a disappointment if Solar Echo didn’t reverse the form with the experience of the race. Feline Groovy showed plenty of ability on her first start when second of nine in a decent Newmarket maiden, but was very disappointing when easily held at Haydock on her next start. The ground was just on the soft side of good that day and if she needs this faster surface she could bounce back. However, her tongue is tied down for the first time in this, suggesting she struggled with her breathing.
    Good Luck

    BRIAN 4 months ago Reply


  • 2.30 Yarmouth ACROSS THE SEA 4/1
    “DUBAWI Filly who debuts here and has done everything we have asked of here at home. She should take all the beating here and is a very exciting prospect”
    GL

    BRIAN 4 months ago Reply


  • – Fenisa’s Hook 4.35 Newbury, a Handicap for 3-y-o over 1m4f. He was given a handicap mark of 75 and made his Handicap debut at Windsor (1m) 17 days ago. The trip was on the sharp side for him on that occasion and we feel the extra 4f today will be ideal. Jockey Thomas Greatrex claims 7lb and will be instructed to bounce out from stall 1 and race handy. There are a couple of others making their Handicap debuts who could be well handicapped potentially but I consider 28-1 with PaddyPower to be a bit of value and certainly worth a small each-way interest!
    GL

    BRIAN 4 months ago Reply


  • Brian, are some of these your own tips / insight and others are just trainer comments?

    neilmck 4 months ago Reply


    • HI NEIL ,

      NAHH THEY ARE JUST THE FREE TIPS I RECEIVE IN MY INBOX EVERY MORNING 🙂 … TURNING OUT TO BE SHOCKING ..LOL … I WILL STOP THIS NOW …ITS EMBARRASSING FOR ME LET ALONE THE TIPSTERS THEMSELVES 🙂
      I AM ACTUALLY DOING BETTER MYSELF 🙂
      BC
      GL

      BRIAN 4 months ago Reply


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