Free Daily Post: 13/06/18 (hold)

another quiet one from me.

Not the greatest days racing today, nothing from me.



Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

    1. Based on their long term results presumably. All tipping services have losing runs, and losing months. Josh had a few losing periods over the last 6 months before making a fortune over Cheltenham. Nick in the members section had a bad few weeks before hitting the most ridiculous run of form. S2A had a bad double of weeks after a 100/1+ winner.

    2. Blimey William, I would politely suggest you stop betting if a losing run of 18, 35 or, well, even 50 is something you see as a negative/concerns you. The majority of tipsters who win long term would generally be operating in the average odds of 10/1+ region with advised prices, 10-20% win strike rate region, which means losing runs of between 35 or so and 66 can be expected every 1000 bets, and many in between that. Or points dropped. The only way to reduce losing runs is to follow those who do well at the top of the market 5/2-4/1 region say, and who find value there and have a 25% -30% win SR, but again they will have losing runs of 20-30 …. that is just the maths. You can’t not have losing runs like that.

      You may be searching for a golden ticket which does not exist. They have been going for 7+ years now I think, and have made a profit every year for 7 years… they have loyal members who have been with them for years, have ridden out the down periods and are happy with the long term ROI. their approach may not be for everyone, hence why I usually only highlight them when a) there is a quality freebie b) there is a reduced offer… so that you get a cheap way to see for yourself.
      £10 for the next 30 days is very good value, given the racing covered in that period, and more than long enough to see if they ‘could’ be a valued addition to any portfolio. You don’t even need to bet in that time and can paper trade, but often the best time to follow a tipping service is at the back end of a losing run.

      Oh and they have just come through an independent trial on Geegeez for 60 days or so where they walloped all other services under review in the same period. After that glut of winners they were no doubt due a little dip. At the odds they can play at that is 1 or 2 winners and back in profit.

      My own tips are around +300 points since Sept 1st, in that time I have had a few losing runs of -20, -35 or so, and in recent weeks lost 26 points, 26 losers or so in a row. Doesn’t bother me at all really. I only care for profit and ROI, not winning SR or losing runs, as I have confidence in my ability long term, based on history and my incessant restless perfectionism. As I do with Cleeve. They have stood the test of time and tip in the big festivals/big weekend races. They are tough, but again, that’s the point in any cheap trial period.

      If you are signing up to services which are advertising no losing runs etc, then that are simply making it up and shouldn’t be believed.


    3. William

      I have been with Cleeve for over 2 years now & have no regrets whatsoever. Their long term profit is good & I would stick in there with them if I was you. Every Tipster will have losing runs at some stage – it’s what happens in the long term that is important.

  1. William; I endorse what Neil has said. No Tipster/ Tipping Service / Analyst etc can win all of the time, it is simply impossible, anyone claiming to, is imho talking baloney.

    I have no links to Cleeve Racing, I haven’t knowingly ever spoken to the providers, I don’t see good Tipping Services as rivals in any way, I actually see them as allies in beating the Bookies, they are the enemy; and profit long term and consistently is what we all strive for.

    In that regard Cleeve are one of a small few whose name and reputation is built on very good long term results; good customer service and very sound logic and analysis from what I have seen on occasions and heard about, from my Members; and others that I respect; over a number of years.

    If I had to recommend a service to anyone they would be at or very near the top of a rather small list and I always suggest that anyone looks at long term delivery and prowess and in that regard, I am sure they will continue to deliver for anyone.

  2. Hi All

    Not the best days racing……. but !
    SDS does not become champion jockey with High Class / Saturday winners. He wins it by having multiple winners on days like today. Six mounts at Yarmouth and Three at Kempton……..
    All bar 2 are around the 6/1 mark.
    GL whatever you back today

  3. Interesting Cleeve only bet on class 2 and above races, however they appear to issue their bets the night before which is a negative for me.

    Anyone know how well their odds hold up or any idea whether profitable to betfair SP?

    1. Given the races they target, unless a horse is price wised (is that still a thing??) I suspect the prices hold just fine… if you are playing in C2+, often big fields, there is plenty of liquidity esp on a Sat, most hold/may be bigger on morning and maybe even BF exchange I suspect, Well, I have found that with my own tipping in such races but small sample. Again, such queries are reasons for such offers, £10 for 30 days and you can paper trade if you wish, and see if prices collapse. They wouldn’t have a sustainable business really if they did, I’d suggest.

    2. Francis, a fair point but I think you need to distinguish who can and can’t “move markets” especially on top class races with very high liquidity in the markets.

      There are those that can imho in 2 categories (a) the Bookies friends like Segal, those in other words with massive industry clout who work for major publications whose every word the Bookies hand on, and if you believe some, bookies stooges employed and paid to impact on markets (b) a small number of social media Tipsters who have large followings and who offer free advice. A few are completely genuine (Gary Priestley is one) most though stack their “free sites” with Bookie affinity deals and anyone who knows me; knows my long held views on that scurrilous practise.

      I passionately believe that the vast majority CAN’T and DON’T influence markets and whilst a few do claim they can, I suspect in most cases it is more to “soothe their ego”. I can only speak from my own experience that price moves and even when prices shorten, they “come back and even improve” more often than not.

      The type of race Cleeve (and indeed our own Elite Service) tip on is not likely to be impacted much by tips in the long term.

      I also believe this “price obsession” is just a by product of normal human emotion e.g feeling you have missed value at let’s say 25/1 when the price goes to 20/1, again all about opinion and again imho (a) the 25/1 may well come back and (b) even if it doesn’t 20/1 is still cracking value, indeed with any horse it should have a “value threshold”!. I hear all too often comments like, “it was 25/1 but I could only get 16/1 so didn’t back it” – my opinion (for what its worth) is that if anyone can look a 16/1 shot in the face and think its not value, then they must have a brain wired completely differently to mine….value I guess like beauty is in the eye of the beholder and if 16/1 (in this hyperthetical case) is not value, then I’m not sure personally what is.

      The only definition of value imho is profit, so I always think along the lines of “don’t look a gift horse in the mouth” if the price has dropped, it wins, you win, just a case of how much you win – far betetr to win something than nothing and far worse is seeing a nice one win and having missed it out of for want of a better word, and not wishing to offend anyone “greed”…

      1. Thanks for the comments everyone. I largely agree with the views on here although do personally think there is a third category of service who suffer from price drops and that is any service that has followers that take the price on the exchanges shortly after release. These tend to be services with fairly serious punters with restricted accounts. It works like this:

        – the tipster releases the bet – let’s say at 16/1
        – most followers of the service use bookmaker accounts but those without that option use the exchanges instead. – There is little liquidity and so they are prepared to take a price lower than that which is advised – let’s say 14/1
        – now you have a situation where the bookies are 16/1 and people can lay off on the exchange at 14/1.
        – there is no bookmaker in the country that would not react to this if they saw it and they nearly always do as they have software that compares their prices to that on the exchanges, often auto-adjusting their odds.

        The problem is, when odds availability becomes an issue, I have seen it pretty much kill off services completely.

        This is because it becomes self-fulfilling a) people know prices will contract and so all bet immediately after release to get the advised price making it obvious to bookmakers that the surge is due to a tipping service b) because people know the price will contract, the exchange activity gets even worse. In my example, it is almost inevitable on such services that a 16/1 shot will be backed down to 12/1. This means that even a few with bookmaker accounts start hoovering up exchange prices to benefit from arbitrage.

        This all might sound far-fetched but I can assure you I have seen it all first hand.

        This of course is much less of an issue
        in higher class races as there is more liquidity meaning followers can usually avoid asking for a lower price than the advised price on betfair.

        I take your point about odds bouncing back but in my experience that depends on the tipster.

        For example one tipster I follow is on racing index and makes a great profit to advised odds but has no edge at betfair starting prices. The profile of horses he selects is not missed by the betting public even if bookies may overprice them initially. Others, and Ian – you are probably the finest example of this(!), specialise in finding horses that are much less obvious and so when they do contract initially, they are much more likely to bounce back.

        I must say that proofing to SP and betfair SP is a fantastic idea and I am one extremely happy SP2A member and RTP member for that matter!

  4. Wednesday 13th June
    Yarmouth 5f Novice 3pm
    1. Deputise
    2. Motagally
    3. Artair
    Ratings bet 1pt win Deputise
    Hamilton 5f Novice Auction 6.30pm
    1. Mr Diamond
    2. Diviner, Don’t Tell Dandy
    3. Ratings Bet 1pt win Mr Diamond
    Chelmsford 2.50 6f Novice Auction
    1. Micronize
    2. Be Proud Fast Endeavour
    Ratings Bet 1pt Micronize
    Haydock 6f Novice 2.40pm
    1. Ellheidi, Rollicking
    2. New Winds, Aghast, Iconic Choice
    No bet
    Looks like it could be an expensive day. I didn’t have the confidence to take on New Winds as well, bound to be the favourite that gets beaten.

  5. For anyone considering Cleeve they publish all their tips and results to adv/BOG. The link is below.

    I can vouch for the period I was a member (approx 6 months) that these are genuine. However, I found their service a bit pricey for my stake size (£5-£10).

  6. With Ascot around the corner a couole of good racedays on saturdays coming up no doubht a festival somewgere with group races thrown which is cleeve racing chosen specialty i use a free service that has a chosen list of elite services and cleeve are one such service they won’t tip In every race but they will give you the top 3 rated from there system if your going to give them a while there’s no time like the present and signing up using joshs link is actually making him a couple of pence (maybe I’m not sure if that’s how it works )but that’s the route ill be taking

  7. U.S Open First Round Leader Bets
    2pt Jimmy Walker 70/1 ew
    1pt Sebastian Munoz 150/1 ew
    1pt Aaron Wise 100/1 ew

    All with Skybet with 6 places available

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *