Members Daily Post: 12/06/18 (complete)

Notes x3, Section 1 (comp), test zone (x2/comp) + really super thoughts

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Salisbury

4.00- Fabulous Red (micro age) G3 6/1 UP

5.30 – Pursuing Steed (m going) I1 15/2 S6 UP

 

Thirsk 

2.45 – Clenymistra (m age) 8/1 2nd 

3.15 – 

Straightothepoint (m dist)  13/2  UP

Buccaneersvault (m age) I3 9/1  WON 9/1>6/1 (10p R4, 8/1) 

3.45 – Fleetfoot Jack (m age) H3 G3 13/2 S5 UP

 

Lingfield

7.50 – Fanfair (all hncps) H3 I1 7/2 S2 2nd 

 

JUMPS

Southwell 

6.40 – 

Alf N Dor (all hncps) 14,30H3 I3 11/2 UP

Reckless Behaviour (m dist+ runs) 12/1 S2 UP

7.10 – 

Londonia (all hncps + m age) 30H3 11/1 S2 3rd 

Born For War (hncp h) (hncp h debut) 10/1 S2 2nd 

8.10 – 

Souriyan (all hncps) w2 14,30 I1 9/1  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

Sadlers Risk (hncp h) 25/1 S2A UP

9.10 – Wistari Rocks (hncp h) 10/1 S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 11/130,41p, +1)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

 

NOTES

3.15 Thirsk- Buccaneers Vault – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) WON 9/1>6/1 (10p R4, 8/1

5.30 Salis – Pursuing Steed – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen) UP

8.10 South – Souriyan – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP

 

Buccaneers Vault – I thought he was worth a stab at 9s in this sprint given he arrives in some sort of form having ‘run on’ the last day under an inexperienced jockey in a York C3 (although for gent riders). He drops back into a C5 here, drops back to 6f and Paul M jumps back on. He is back on his last winning mark. Over this trip he needs a strong pace to aim at which I think he will get- most of it seems low to me but they may all merge up the centre. Low has generally been the place to be here on the straight track this season, whatever the ground, and it has appeared a track bias rather than a pace bias. That will switch as some point but with any luck holds today. I thought this race would set up for him. He is a hold up sprinter so will need luck in running. The trainer had a winner yesterday and has been ticking along ok. Trainer/jockey are 4/17,5p in handicaps at the track in the last 5 years. 9s was just worth a stab although it is the sort of race/running style where an EW bet would probably be sensible given the 4 places on offer, but I’ve gone on the nose. 

Pursuing Steed – a slight leap of faith here but Morrison has booked an in-form apprentice and on the figures so far, he is the best of them (along with J Cooley, so Red Tycoon could be worth some interest) to my eyes. He has ridden a winner here and his booking has played a large consideration in the bet. The horse also drops in class and drops down to 6f. He’s a tad like Suitcase N Taxi in that his winning form is over further, (7f) but he hasn’t proved he can’t win over this trip. Having looked at the pace map there are no out and out front runners, and Theodore can get on with it and make all, as per Krystallite at Wolvs. I just wondered if they may change things up with the horse and be aggressive. If he plays catch me if you can, and gets an easy lead, given his stamina, I doubt they’ll get to him. The flip side is that plenty of these jockeys may go too hard, given pace must be one of the hardest riding skills to learn, and comes with experience, so they may fall in a hole and he will sweep past. He is 2/2 at C5 level and 15/2 looked worth a go to my eyes. Aled Beech rides the fav, and he may leave me with egg on my face, but he is only 2/97 on the flat turf, and 1/86 in turf handicaps…that’s some leap of faith at 10/3. Our jockey is 10/73,27p in all handicaps, 5/31,12p on turf including a win here, as a comparison. He did underperform LTO when fav but I’m happy to put a line through that given how quickly he reappears, and it could just be ‘one of those runs’ as he ran well the time before that. 

Souriyan – 9s seemed a few points too big to my eyes given the form of the horse and the yard, and the fact I thought he would get an uncontested lead, if he wanted it. He is running well and drops back from a C2 LTO and over 25f, back into C3 and 24f here, with a shorter run after the last flight than Cartmel LTO, where he may have been a tad outpaced in the run for home. There is a chance this mark is his ceiling but he hasn’t proved he can’t win from this mark for me, not in ideal conditions, and he did go close off 133 in a nov hncp chase. The horse he beat two starts back has since won again, and there was a decent gap back to the rest that day. I thought he was the one they all had to beat here. Brave Eagle is a danger and is unexposed, and may take this. But he does have stamina to prove and that was a 6 runner race LTO. Solid, but worth taking on. I was surprised he was so big. 

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Of the rest… well there are  a handful that will leave me throwing things at the tv if they win…

2.45 Thirsk – I stared and stared at Clenymistra 2nd  and Tan Arabiq 3rd (he would have won had he got an uncontested lead I suspect, in a way I have called them both wrong, not tipping them, even though they have lost) …I won’t put you off interest bets on either… I thought the former was too short in a race this size given the horse isn’t in form and the trainer isn’t red hot… there were probably valid excuses though as Cleny probably needed the run LTO and he drops in class and back to a track he’s won at. Tudhope takes over. Were he 12s+ I may/would have waded in, but he isn’t on any ratings pointers and something niggled at me, at single figure odds. But I won’t fall off my seat if he wins. And neither with Tan Arabiq from the recent losers below… he was so so poor LTO. The ground may have gone against him and the trip too far, but he was beaten a long way from home having gone his own pace near the front end. I thought it was too poor. But, SDS is on, he drops in class again and back down to 12f. As with LTO he does need to prove his stamina for this trip on turf, although his AW runs suggest this could be the furthest he wants to go. He does look better on the AW but will pop up at some point no doubt. He is well drawn to race prominently here and a bold show wouldn’t surprise me. I couldn’t get myself into a place to tip either and we shall see if that’s right come 2.50 or so. 

7.10 South... I looked at the two handicap hurdle debutants, one for George above and Jonjo below… I wanted bigger prices than 10/11s I think, given the time off the track…both could be ready though and both move up in distance in an open enough race. George is 2/8,5p with hncp debutants here, 5/15,9p in all hncp hurdles at the track in 5 years and 7/14,8p with all hurdlers here returning 60+ days off, in the same period. Some of Born For War’s NHF form is decent and produced a few horses now rated in the mid 120s. I won’t be surprised if either leaves me annoyed but I suppose the fitness niggle and neither trainer being ‘red hot’ has left me wanting 14s/16s+. 

Price is always a subjective judgement that is more art than science for me (I don’t spend hours compiling my own tissues), that I get wrong plenty of times. We shall see if I’m right or wrong today. 

 

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Recent Tips

(running total, from 07/06/18: 3/9,3p, +25.5) 

Note: do keep an eye on the comments from Mike below, who’s keeping tabs on these also and as on Monday will flag the odd one I have inexcusably failed to add to my own tracker

2.45 Thirsk- Tan Arabiq 11/1  3rd 12/1 

9.10 South- Mick The Poser  20/1  UP

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Irish Angles

6.00 RC – Chin Up (25/1<)  14/1 

8.30 RC- Riveria Sun 14/1 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

6.40 South – Copper West 11/2 

Jonjo Hncp Debut (16/1<) 

7.10 South – Best Practice 10/1 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points

6.40 South – Too Many Diamonds

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

NOTE: 

StrategyS3A# … in recent days you may have noted me using this symbol. It simply denotes the subset of S3A which highlights any ES+ qualifiers that are ‘double/treble’ rated on the ratings set…so, any horse that has an ES+ and also two or more red symbols, (e.g. ES+ H1 I3, or ES+ I3 G3 etc)  will get an S3A#, as simple as that. I am tracking that approach as per the ‘where should you start’ report in the key and the results links, and before it didn’t have a strategy ‘code’, and it is now S3A#

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8.50 Ling – Really Super... I’ll be heading to the racetrack on Tuesday for this evening meeting, to watch this girl run. I’ll update with any thoughts tomorrow I suspect. Wednesday’s Section 1/post may be up Wednesday morning or very late Tuesday, deepening on how late I get back, as I’ll be spending the night in London.

Thoughts… 16/1 seemed a tad insulting to my eyes and I’ve had a decent go EW. She needed the run LTO and it didn’t help she missed the break in a slowly run race, which probably cost her 3rd. She should be sharper here hopefully although she is a big girl now and in my own view may take one more run to hit peak fitness. We think her flat mark is very exploitable if we can find the key, hence keeping to the level. There may not be much pace to aim at again here and all she does is gallop. Stamina is a question for most in here, certainly the top two in the market, although the LTO winner wasn’t stopping LTO and I dare say Spencer has influenced the trip move on the fav. Fry is having a good time of it with his flat runners and I can see why he is short. It’s hard to be dogmatic about Really Super until she wins a race, as there will always be a niggle there about how she goes through with it at the business ends. But, she responded for pressure LTO and goes past horses at home no problem. The hood comes off today and I’ll ask Amy about the thinking behind that later. It was applied to help her train at home and settle her down, but it must be deemed surplus to requirements, and I wouldn’t mind seeing her sparked up a more here, provided it’s controlled. She should just keep going tonight and I’d hope for a place at worst in truth. But, the race may not pan out and she does have a mind of her own I think. She will be sent back over timber at some point this summer and is the sort who needs it mixing up to keep her mind fresh. 

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World Cup Best Bets Free Report

If you missed my email to the general list the other day, you can read itHERE>>>It details a free report from friend of the blog Paul Ruffy and is worth a read if you have any interest in betting on the World Cup.Take a look HERE>>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

38 Responses

    1. Ah yes, cheers, I’d failed to look into my second HRB account it seems, a few others as well as him.
      Josh

    1. Nope, they seem to have mixed meetings there now, first half of card on the sand, and then they switch to Turf. Really Super is def running on grass! 🙂

      1. ohhh, you’d think with ATR having the camera’s there they’d know wtf is going on wouldn’t you. I normally use rp site and had better get back to it sharpish.
        cheers

        1. What I could have done was refresh hours ago and then I would have seen the going updated.tsk tsk

  1. Nice to get a winner with Comedy for the Karl Burke Focus.Has one tomorrow at Thirsk but with a record of 1/76 at the track and 3/1 is not a working mans price.
    The one I will be backing is Towering 7.10 Southwell at 33/1 and Hatem at 9.10 at 20/1for the Dore/Brennan Combo

      1. Yes, he had a bug in the yard about 3 weeks ago, but quickly resolved judging by his form in the last week.

    1. Hi Gerry….. Did a little more research into the Dore/Brennan combo and notice that when you break it down to race class they are 5/18 (27.8) in class 5 races, but only 1/20 in Class 4’s. Just thought I’d let you know in case you were not aware.

      Tim

  2. Firstly, shout out to some of the tips put up by various parties on Monday – Nick M found an 11/1 BOG winner; MW found a 7/1 winner; LTO losers found a 16/1+ winner and Alpha2 (Hugh) found a 9/1 winner. Excellent work by all of them, thanks a lot.

    Tips – I am minus 9.75 points for the month but doing very well based upon the winning tips of others. I am off to Lake Garda ( thanks to two good bets on Politologue) with my wife for a week but back for Royal Ascot. I will try to read the blogs whilst I am away but my wife has planned an itinerary for the week and it involves drinking the local produce, so maybe not?

    Good luck to all and keep the tipping confidence going.

    1. and a 7/1 BOG winner from Chris M. I’m following with interest. Small stakes to start with. Cheers!

  3. Nearly missed it. Not a full meeting but there are three races on the AW at Lingfield tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    5.50 Ballesteros 20/1 (0.5pt EW)
    6.20 Ring Out The Bells 14/1 (1pt Win)

    Good Luck

  4. Thanks for all he kind words guys. Hopefully I can keep this going. Busy Tuesday evening:

    Wicked Sea Salisbury Tuesday 15:30 1pt e/w Price taken 11/1 4 places (also available 12/1 3 places)
    Ballyalton Southwell Tuesday 20:10 1pt e/w Price taken 9-10/1
    Chantecler Southwell Tuesday 19:10 1pt e/w Price taken 8-9/1
    Way Out West Southwell Tuesday 21:10 1pt e/w-Price taken 9/1

    1. Brilliant stuff again Nick. You have a habit of leaving it late. Keeping us on our toes haha. Thanks again.

    2. Brilliant tipping again. I am merely riding on the coat tails of you Nick, tried taking you and lost, will keep going though, as i understand the logic behind the picks!

  5. This may be risky, but, going to agree/take on Nick with my selections, can understand reasoning behind them and if we can come up with forecasts between us at least it will be a bumper payday for everyone!

    19:10 Southwell
    CHANTECLER 8/1 gen 1pt ew
    Going with Neil Mulholland runner not got a good win ratio from its 32 runs so far with only one win to its name but showed decent form in its last run at Ludlow last time and Robbie Dunne can give him a good ride here tonight and the 8/1 on offer looks reasonable value so going to take a chance that he may just be good enough in this.
    LONDONIA 10/1 gen 1pt ew
    Strong-travelling sort who was sixth over two miles at Market Rasen on his latest start, weakening on the flat. A step up in distance isn’t assured to suit given he needs to prove his stamina, but, will give him an each way chance.

    20:10 Southwell
    BALLYALTON 9/1 gen 1pt ew
    Better known over fences these days, running well in some very tough handicaps of late. He’s on a fair mark and this represents a drop in grade which means he should go well!!
    SOURIYAN 9/1 gen 1pt ew
    Has been back to form the last twice, winning at Market Rasen before a close third at Cartmel two weeks ago. He’s only a pound higher here and this represents a drop in grade from his latest start. Connections are in red-hot form and he’s one to consider for the placings.

    21:10 Southwell
    WAY OUT WEST 9/1 gen 1pt ew
    Sedgefield bumper winner for Stuart Crawford who once again shaped well over hurdles when sixth of 11 in handicap at Uttoxeter (15.8f) last month, travelling well into contention. He should go well even off top weight.
    TIDAL WATCH 15/2 gen 1pt ew
    Now an eleven-race maiden but he had shown some useful form on the All-Weather for these connections earlier this year. Given a wind operation before finishing sixth on the flat at Thirsk last time out. Should do better now back over hurdles and is an interesting contender on handicap debut off what looks a workable mark.

    Good luck with whatever you back today.

  6. LTO Losers

    There are just the 2 mentioned by Josh.

    TAN ARABIQ..first time out since tipped.

    MICK THE POSER ..2nd time out since tipped.

    GL to everyone with there tips.

    Mike

  7. Good start yesterday, some of you pointed out the BOG winner which guaranteed profit after the first race :-). Just the two selections from me today, both in the same race.

    Chris M Selections:
    15:45 Thirsk – Rebel State (9/4 Betfred, 2/1 gen) OCP
    15:45 Thirsk – Fleetwood Jack (6/1 gen) RTP

    Good luck

  8. COLINS BETS
    Thirsk
    2.45 Kings Gold
    2.45 Ravenswood blinkers for first time and Hanagan in the plate first time.
    4.45 Tember down in grade,blinkers back on and Mr Barron a master with his sprinters.
    5.15 Mutabaahy
    Lingfield
    7.50 Fanfair
    Southwell
    7.10 Cafe Au Lait

  9. I am not tipping them as such but looking at them at lunch time I thought the 2 SDS/Appleby runners in the 2:45/3:15 at Thirsk looked interesting enough to chuck some e/w change on.

    1. Both SDS/Appleby runners are both dropping down a grade and Case Key won a class 4 at Newmarket last July and is on a 4lb lower mark here than that race.
      SDS is the first time in the plate on both horses.
      Cheers Nick will have a couple of quid on both.

        1. only started posting selections this week with todays 7 points profit 12.8 points on the week so far onwards and upwards

  10. Well done Josh. Quite glad the fancy lost that (still made about 200% profit on £5 e/w singles and £2.5 e/w double).

  11. At the moment I feel like I’ve been elevated into the higher racing circles. Followers of Josh, Nick and Ian beware , accounts may be under scrutiny ! Well done all, keep up the good work.

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