World Cup Best Bets Free Report
If you missed my email to the general list the other day, you can read it HERE>>> It details a free report from friend of the blog Paul Ruffy and is worth a read if you have any interest in betting on the World Cup. Take a look HERE>>>
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Section 3 from the members’ post today, the micro system test zone… to use as ‘starting points’ .
3.Micro System Test Zone
Jumps
Irish Angles
6.00 RC – Chin Up (25/1<) 14/1
8.30 RC- Riveria Sun 14/1
Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)
6.40 South – Copper West 11/2
Jonjo Hncp Debut (16/1<)
7.10 South – Best Practice 10/1
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Handicap Chase System Starting Points
6.40 South – Too Many Diamonds
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13 Responses
Golf – no joy last week with Billy Horschel and Phil Mickelson, although Phil played well to finish 12th. Therefore I am putting him up early for the US Open, where there will be enhanced places up to 8th. Therefore at the 36/1 now available I will go 1 point each way.
I am posting early as I am off to Lake Garda early Tuesday. Ciao.
10 places are available with some books… enjoy your hols, lovely place
U.S Open
3pt Jason Day 18/1 ew
2pt Jimmy Walker 90/1 ew
1pt Brandt Snedeker 100/1 ew
Running P/L – +9.25pts
Anyone else struggling to receive/download the World Cup report?
Tuesday 12th June Salisbury and Thirsk plus Windsor review
A good result at Windsor with Dunkerron winning at 8/1 Bfsp to give a 7.6pt profit on the day after the deductions for Private Rocket and Dancing On A Dream. The result was made all the better as once I had seen them I also backed Dirty Rascal e/w at 38 on Bf. To be honest if I had not already had my bet on Dunkerron I am not sure that I would have had the courage of my convictions as he is not the most impressive unit. Private Rocket was dismissed as soon as he appeared as not ready. Far too fat to do himself justice.
The contrast between Private Rocket’s price and Dirty Rascal’s makes one wonder just how tuned in the trainers are to what they have got. Admittedly there were no Hannons at Windsor but to me it was clear that they had a racehorse present in Dirty Rascal, a bit green and immature but nevertheless something that was going to do ok against most of these either because they were yaks or because they were unfit. Usually I get the feeling that the Hannons look around the paddock and sus out the competition and if one of their less fancied ones looks better than the rest they shorten up just before the off. I got lucky tonight as they weren’t there. The other side of the coin is that I am sure Clive Cox knew that Private Rocket was not fit enough to win on debut so what combination of pundits and or bookies convinced the public that he was value at 11/4 co favourite?
This is a good set of pictures as there was a wide range of types here ranging from big strong future good class handicappers to contenders for sellers.
Here is the Windsor photo file https://imgur.com/a/q1kWns7
Dunkerron – A bit of a conundrum here. Only small but clearly a tough competitor who will win more races. I think this was as much due to his fitness, experience and good preparation by Alan King as his being a good animal. I would expect one or two of these to beat him if they were in a rematch. He did not stand out as that likely a winner in the paddock. Size and make up an issue, just not that good looking. Contrast with Triggered! 76
Dirty Rascal – I was expecting the other Hannon runner to be the better one but they entered the parade ring together and DR was a good 2 sizes bigger than London Rocks. Rangy and athletic upper medium, possibly more of a 7f shape. Calling and a bit green, plenty more to come. Inexplicably long priced. 79
Voltaic – Missed this one amongst a forest of big leggy chestnuts. On reflection quite an athletic and tuned look to him. Raul Da Silva was replaced by Rab Havlin which will have done no harm. 74
Leading Spirit – Medium sized heavily made lumpy type. Looked slow at a walk. 70
Siona’s Boy – Lower medium plain type, well prepared by Dave Evans. 64
Triggered – Just about the best looking animal in the paddock, long , lean rangy, deep chest, lots to like. Not ready to compete today but stayed on well in the closing stages. Follow this one. Could be anywhere between 80-90 so will plump for 85
My Dear Friend – Square and boxy, unathletic, too close coupled to be able to shift himself efficiently. 68
Oloroso – Clumsily made, looks like he was put together without the instruction manual. Consequently he is an inefficient mover. His experience allowed him to lie up with the leaders for a couple of furlongs but he soon ran out of steam. 60
Sophosc – A bit of size and substance 65
Private Rocket – first impression was not ready and so it proved. Medium, sprint type, ran green, should come on considerably. Not sure that he is better class. Probably better than 75 but it will do for now. Wouldn’t be paying to find out.
Zeb’s Silver – Top end of small, watery colour really didn’t help.58
Freedom And Wheat – Yak. 50
London Rock – Small, looked fit enough, contested early speed but soon faded. Brighton seller next? 55
Invincible One – Weak bodied. 54
Allux Girl – Plain, slow, nowhere near fit, impossible to assess anything from the Tinkler yard until they are three. 55
Dark Impulse – All wrong at the back end, doubt he will ever develop into a race horse. 48
Salisbury 2.00pm 6f Novice auction
Ratings
1. Urban Icon, Certain Lad, Indian Viceroy, Dr Smolder, My Style
With normal development one would expect Urban Icon to progress enough to take this. One of the few that has won on debut for the Hannons this year. No bet.
Thirsk 2.15 6f Novice
Ratings
1. Smoki Smoka, Prince Elzaam
2. Call Him Al
3. Ahlan bil Emerati, Coco Motion, You Never Can tell, Magic Groove
Ratings Bet: 1pt e/w Smoki Smoka and Prince Elzaam
Smoki Smoka looked a decent sized unit on debut at Chester and patently struggled with the track. The bare form does not suggest he should really be competing for the win here but may be much better suited by the track. Dangers abound.
Running points total 36.03
Lingfield to follow
Hugh
Always a great read Hugh, well done with yesterday’s winner. That profit pile ticking along just fine and much deserved.
A good read again Hugh
I enjoy the way you provide ratings and the rationale behind each choice
Most importantly decent profits being achieved
GOLF BETS
US Open
Jason Day 1 point ew 18/1 1/5 8 365 SB BO BW 10 BET
Jason is a big tournament player and he has 5 top 10 places from 7 appearances in the US open.
Jon Rahm 1point ew 22/1 1/5 7 BF 22/1 1/5 6 Blacktype 22/1 1/4 5 Marathon Bet plenty of 20/1 available.
This course was last used for the US Open in 2004 and as wide fairways which will suit the tours longest hitter.
Bryson De Chambeau 1 point ew 45/1 1/5 7 BF Sporting bet 50/1 1/5 6 Blacktype plenty of 40/1 available.
Since this young mans win in the Phoenix Open 11 starts ago his form figures are outstanding with a win, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th and he can be the dark horse.
Good to see you like Day Colin, I had similar rationale to you: his U.S. Open record is very strong, has played well in the N.Y area before and likes Poa Annua greens. Also 2 tournaments this year show his ability even though he hasn’t in my opinion played as well as he did 2/3 years ago when he won the PGA championship.
Also like Rahm, and was very close to putting him up but thought his price was just about right, but a major winner in waiting for sure. I may have a dabble in play if his price drifts a little.
Hi James
Thanks for that and yes Day does appear to save his best for the major tournaments,so many could have put up this week normally only put up two players but at the price could not leave out De Chambeau.
Jordan Speith is another totally out of form but the big occasion could see him back to his best.
Matt Fitzpatrick another one who is improving on big stage and he is 3 from 3 in the US Open but do not think the course will suit him but at 150/1 may have a couple of quid on him for he has nerves of steel and he is a local lad from Lodge Moor in Sheffield.
2:15 Thirsk, I Believe In You, 1 point win,
Only 3 of the 12 declared have run before and 2 of those have shown fair form. Thirsk suits prominent runners and there is a bias towards the stands rail in sprints. I Believe In You is drawn 8 and his previous racecourse experience can be put to good use to gain a handy position early. He was a big price when making his debut at Redcar and was outpaced before charging home to finish a close third, beaten half a length. He looks sure to improve on that level of form. That was over 5 furlongs and his finishing kick suggests a 6th furlong will be no problem. He showed a good attitude at the end of that race, when running on strongly, and that could prove crucial here.
Ahlan Bil Emarati can be given the benefit of the doubt for running green on his debut but threw away the win last time when stopping once he got to the lead. He’s been gelded since, in the hope of helping him concentrate and is likely to be played late to avoid a repeat of his waiting antics. Thirsk’s sprint track is a difficult place to time a late challenge and there could be traffic problems for him from his stall 12 draw. Smoki Smoka didn’t show enough first time out to consider for this. It’s difficult to know which, if any, of the newcomers will be ready to compete here, none of them were particularly expensive or have been supported in the market so far and there’s a fair standard to aim at anyway.
Good Luck
bc
Lingfield 6.20 6f Fillies Novice
This looks a poor race. I saw Crimean Queen and Ring Out The Bells compete on debut at Windsor behind Main Edition. I rated Crimean queen who was 6th at 68 and Ring Out The Bells who was beaten 9l in 10th at 74. This was because Ring Out The Bells was a better looking type. They are very similar but Ring Out has just a bit deeper girth and slightly more scope. It is a close thing but I think Ring Out has slightly more room for improvement. Archie Watson who runs So Brave is also capable of getting them ready fto. Ring Out The Bells chance lies in Charlie Hills now having her properly fit.
Ratings
1. Crimean Queen, Ring Out The Bells, So Brave
2. Atwaar, Laura Kenny
Ratings bet 1pt win Ring Out The Bells
Reviews from Salisbury and Thirsk
Two of Urban Icon’s top rated rivals were withdrawn but I don’t think it would have made any difference and Urban icon won hands and heels. We were unlucky not to get a place with Prince Elzaam who was very green and beaten a nose for 3rd at Thirsk.
Running Total 32.03pts
Thanks all for kind words about my efforts. A word of warning that the strike rate tends to dip alarmingly after Ascot as the higher quality stables start launching more of their quality 2yos. These can make the precocious ones that appeared smart early season look a bit ordinary.
Hugh
PAULS BETS 2 points lost yesterday running total
+5.8 points today 5.30 salisbury 2 points win madrinho good luck