Members Daily Post: 11/06/18 (complete)

Section 1 (comp), no tips today

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Brighton

3.30 – Winging Willie (micro going) I3 7/1 UP

4.30 – 

New Rich (all hncps 5 yrs, all) ES+ H1 6/1 S3A S6  UP

Cruel Clever Cat (m class) 33/1 UP

 

Windsor

8.20- Come On Come on (4yo+, + m TJC) w2 H3 I3 G1  7/4 S2 S4  UP

 

Pontefract

7.10 – 

Zakatal (all hncps) I3 33/1 

Icefall (m TJC/Going) G1 12/1 S6  UP

8.10 – My Reward (m TJC/Going) H3 I1  7/2 S2  WON 4/1 

8.40 – 

Round The Island (all hncps) I1 8/1 S6  UP

Munthany (3yo+, + m TJC/going/age) 11/1  3rd 16/1 

Space War (3yo+, + m dist)  20/1 UP

9.10 – 

Foxtrot Knight (m dist) I3 4/1 UP

Lexington Place (m dist) 8/1  UP

 

JUMPS

Worcester

5.15 – Walter Oneeightone (m class) 11/1 S2 UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Nothing today 

 

Recent Tips

(running total, from 07/06/18: 2/6,2p, +11.5) 

2.15 Worc – Scrupuleux (added late, 9.23) (3rd run since tipped) WON 16/1 

7.20 Wind- Twin Star UP

9.10 P – Foxtrot Knight (2nd run since tipped) UP

(two added from Mike below, one I missed, the other I wasn’t sure to include as it was a NR, but it was a tip and I suppose it didn’t win, so we will throw it in!) 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

/

*

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

65 Responses

  1. I’m going to keep a complete record of backing Josh’s handicap chasers (starting points), as from last Saturday when there was a loser, Allelu Alleluia and a NR.
    I’m using a progressive staking plan (win only) where the maximum bet will be 2% or £20.
    The progressive sequence is a string of eight percentages, 1, 1.1, 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6, 1.8, 2.0, the stakes increasing after each loser. After a winner, if the current loss has not been eliminated the stake is reduced to where the cumulative loss was below that total. To make that clear! you have a winning bet on the fifth stake (1.5) @ 2/1.
    The return is 30 and the prior four losses total 4.7 or £47 so £30 is deducted from that, leaving a deficit of £17. What is the next bet? Answer £12 or 1.2% because that loss is greater than £10 but less than £21.
    To complicate that a little more, all results will to BSP 🙂
    A bank of £1K will be used.
    After 8 losers, stakes stay at 2% until the deficit is back below 9.3%.
    If the bank grows by 20% then stakes rise by that amount. If the bank halves, so will the stakes.
    The current loss is £10 and the next bet will be £11; there are no qualifiers at Worcester tomorrow – unless Josh tells me differently.

  2. Guys……

    I’m not one for football betting BUT with the World Cup about to start was just wondering if anyone on here had a strong opinion on any bets??
    Outright
    Top scorer
    Anything really !

    1. It might be worth googling the ‘football advisor’ service – they offer a full stats pack and recommended bets (50 of them) for £18, with more to come during tournament. Seems a professional service and great value if you want an interest.

  3. The golden boot has been won with 6-7 goals in the last couple of tourneys Suarez to fill his boots in the group games with Uruguay at around 25/1 most firms looks to be a value bet and most are giving fiver free bets for each goal scored or if you back a team it’s a fiver free bet for every one personally W hill only require a 10er outlay but some sites want 20 per bet and powers are only giving 2 quid free bets for wins and goals
    Hope that’s some help
    Aaron ps I think Josh prefers these type of comments kept to the free post page

    1. The angle for this bet is to go for someone who will score a few in the group stage to get a good start. James Rodriguez of Colombia did so and won it last time around. I do like Suarez as the group Uruguay are in is not strong. Also who plays up front for Germany? See who plays up front in their first game as they have a few potential options.

      If I had to have a bet on the winners I would pick Spain. A good keeper and back four and Busquets in front of them and so they should not be conceding goals. Even if Diego Costa gets sent off they have other choices to go up front.

      I know of someone who has had a big bet on Germany to win their group at 1.38. I know it sounds miles odds on but it is difficult to see it not happening as they do need to win their group to avoid Brazil in the knockout round.

  4. I am sure the bubble is going to burst soon. Not a lot takes my fancy tomorrow so just the one.

    Rotherwick Windsor Monday 20:20 1pt e/w-Price taken 10-11/1-This is a good race and I suspect plenty of winners will come out of it but the selection looked a very solid one and never runs a bad race at this course and distance. Given he didn’t have his usual tongue tie on 2 starts ago he should reverse the form with the favourite. He is back to his last winning mark and David Probert is 2/2 on him. Trainer has 2 wins and a 2nd from 9 runners in June after going 0/20 in May and 1/41 in the first 5 months of the year. Probert has a hell of a record for the trainer also and is 7/18, 9p +30 over flat handicaps for him.

    1. Cheers Nick, I am up 25 points on your tips over last five days or so & I am sure I have missed some from you.

    2. Inspired stuff at the moment Nick, you’ve won me a fair few quid the last week or so, thanks for sharing here. Is there anything you can put the pin on that’s causing this great run?

    3. behave will you! Will be sending you for routine testing soon haha. Well done, a truly incredible run of form these last few weeks, more so than usual!

    4. Nick
      I have made a not inconsiderable amount of cash backing your tips recently.
      In tandem with many others on this site who have donated to charity, I have donated half my profit today (~£32) in your honour, to Blind Veterans UK (ex St Dunstans). I know this was not one of your nominated charities but it is a worthwhile cause.
      Great stuff
      Mike

  5. An angle I have been following for since the start of last jumps season is the association between Conor Dore and Paddy Brennan.Jumps season 17/18+34 Current Season +25.Dore is mostly an aw trainer but does have a few jumps runners as well.Towering and Stuccodor have been the big winners for him so far.Towering winning twice for the combo 25/1 each time and more recently Stuccodor at 20/1 and 5/1.Towering was quite a talented hurdler for Nicky Henderson before becoming a bit frustrating,then switched to Alexandra Dunn had him for a while without success and then onto Dore who has eeked out 2 wins.Stuccodor Weld-Leech-Dore.He seems to pick older horses that would appear to have their best years behind them,now he doesn’t get instant success but perhaps perseveres where others loose patience,so he can obviously see potential and find a level where they can compete.That may be an exploitable angle for people with horseracebase.Has 1 runner tomorow,unusually over the larger obstacles Hurricane Rita 2.15 Worc.With the trainers overall strike rate wont be collecting that often but hopefully the over all returns will pay off

  6. Karl Burke has hit a bit of form recently with his 2yo’s leading the charge.Comedy should improve for his first run and the 12/1 looks value.Ben Curtiss takes over the riding duties,his record riding Burke’s 2yr olds is a solid 20%

  7. Morning,

    Wasn’t going to bother today, but, the 17:15 at Worcester has peaked my interest, especially as one of my fancies is in Josh`s note picks.
    MR MAFIA 9/2 gen 2pt win
    Mr Mafia won nicely last time at Stratford and has really decent form at this course despite not running here since September last year. Harry Stock takes off 5lbs off which will help so has a huge chance for the double here.
    WALTERONEEIGHTONE 12/1 gen 1pt ew
    Though beaten easily last time, that was over 3 miles. Dropping back in trip to a distance he has won over will certainly benefit him and looks good value at current 12/1 looks sure to run his race and should go close

    Good luck on whatever you back today!

  8. LTO losers,

    We have 3 today Foxtrot Knight being the best.

    Foxtrot Knight – (Pontefract, 21:10)
    Race: Featherstone Rovers Handicap4/1
    FTO 25/05 Notes 01/06 Catt 8/8 Saddle slipped
    Timeform C&D winner in May and went close here on penultimate start. 3/1, saddle slipped when last of 8 in handicap at Catterick (6f, good) 10 days ago and easy to ignore that run. Should go well.

    Twin Star – (Windsor, 19:20)
    Race: Toby Eady Commemoration Handicap9/2
    FTO 02/06 Epsom NR Notes
    Timeform 10/1, good fifth of 14 in handicap at Ascot (12f, good to firm) 30 days ago. Tongue strap back on.

    Scrupuleux – (Worcester, 14:15)
    Race: Thursfields Solicitors Novices’ Handicap Chase16/1
    FTO 24/4 Exeter Notes. LTO,. 02/06 Wor 5th Held up, headway 7th, ridden and weakening when hampered 3 out, broke blood vessel
    Timeform Has offered very little for this yard and it’s hard to envisage him playing a part in the finish.

    Good luck if you are following.

    Mike

    1. Cheers Mike, missed the Down horse.
      Twin Star a NR for us LTO, so a tricky one there as to know whether to follow etc, I’ll leave him off but he’s in the tracker, thought may need further and certainly a strong gallop, so will be interesting to see how he goes today. GL

      1. I would think the criterion is whether you tipped it, not whether it ran. Put it another way, you tipped it and it didn’t win.

    2. hmm, 16/1, back the lot shall we! 🙂 Cheers for that mike, clearly missed him when adding horses to tracker.

        1. oh I had little faith haha, looked at him, wasn’t great LTO but broke blood vessel, BUT jockey change and drop in class, in a very weak race…but you’d be tipping more in hope than expectation there, but then that’s when the more systematic ‘three strikes/stop at a winner’ comes to play and removes that subjective anguish I suppose. He was an unexposed chaser who in theory should show more one day, and that was today. He did show some promise at Exeter when tipped but ground and doing too much done for him. Looks like he’s taken some time to learn how to race but have found key now. I’ll start tipping some of these buggers at some point.

    3. Mickey said it before thanks for putting them up for all of us to enjoy and like any method you need a BANK and do not attempt to use your brain for you will not back the larger priced winners it is in our nature to back the shorter priced ones,talking from experience.
      End of May or early June missed putting up on Colin’s bets a 50/1 winner because i used my brain and it could not win but it did and i have backed this method for 10 years,if i had been on a winning run more than likely would have backed it and put it up as a bet,thought i would save myself my £60 stake totally backfired.

      1. Ah Colin, you got caught in that conundrum of subjective judgement. That’s why I prefer to follow statistics. There’s no subjective judgement there. You back whatever the stats tell you.

  9. I decided add a small bet:

    Amber Flush Worcester 17:15 0.5pt e/w-Won over course and distance of the same mark last year and I thought it was interesting that Bryony picks this one over the Down runner (I do think she would have had the choice). She has had an excellent record when only having the one ride at a track. The horse also won on his 2nd run of the season last year. Now the trainer is as cold as Siberia which would normally make it a non-pick but given it is 33/1 I think we can allow ourselves a small bet.

  10. Hi josh

    I’ve seen a couple of other posters asking if you would be able to go through the card at a particular meeting, so I wondered if you could do the same for us for this Saturday’s racing at York? It’s our over 40s football team (the mighty Hartlepool Stag & Monkey Fc, Echo Cup Winners 2018) annual day out, so a few tips and thoughts would be very much appreciated. Thanks, Aidan.

    1. yep shouldn’t be a problem, I’ll see what I can do! (as always post a reminder on Friday’s post in the morning :))
      Josh

  11. The monkey hangers annual day out – only joking Aidan ..I actually have pals in Pool & Seaton
    Have a great day out at the best racecourse in the UK

  12. COLINS BETS
    June minus – 24.25 points at Bookmakers SP
    minus – 11 points at BOG shows how valuable BOG is and why the bookmakers are quick to restrict accounts for they do not want winners.

    3.30 Brighton Genetics David Probert first time in the plate and Andrew Balding is in fine form.
    5.50 Windsor Nine Below Zero
    9.10 Pontefract Alsvinder

  13. Thought I’d share my selections, that since I started tracking properly have been going along nicely. The selections come from looking through the horses highlighted in section 1 above, some of the reports from Gee Geez and using some of the systems from the On Course Profits magazine, all of which are staring points for me to make judgements. I will endeavour to post them up each day, with exception is a Sunday as it’s the only day I don’t bet. If you wish to follow I would advise small stakes as this is still early days but I do have confidence it will give a nice ROI over time.

    Chris M Selections:
    20:20 Windsor – Dream Machine (4/1 gen) GG
    15:15 Worcester – Deauville Crystal (7/2gen) GG
    16:30 Brighton – New Rich (81 gen) RTP
    20:50 Windsor – Walk on Walter (9/2 gen) OCP

    Good luck with whatever you bet on today!

    1. I’m going to add another to the 8.40 which is an S6 qualifier as above.
      Round The Island has won over c/d off 61 under the same jockey last year.
      Tonight he is off 59 and the trainer does well here with a strike rate of 17%+ but with Lewis Edmunds in the saddle here the strike rate is 60% with 6 wins from 10.
      I managed 9/1 at 5am this morning with Hills but now he is 6/1 so I’ll suggest a 1 point win at that price.
      Apologies I couldn’t post at the earlier time

  14. Team RTP really excelled themselves today – thanks a lot everyone. Winners from Martin W, Gerry, Hugh, Nick, Colin, Chris M, Stewart, and that lovely LTO winner prompted by Mickey. Amazing. thanks again.

  15. Magic Nick! Cheers!

    And last time out Scrupuleux. They were also the first two in a trixie, sadly the third didn’t make it. But a huge double,lovely!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.