Members Daily Post: 10/06/18 (complete)

No tips today, Section 1 (x1)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Nottingham

4.05 – 

Justanotherbottle (all hncps) w1 H1 I1 9/2 S1 

Moonraker (micro dist) w1 I3 G3 9/2 

5.15 – Brigadoon (m dist) I3 G1  14/1 S2 S6 

 

Goodwood

2.35 – Hernandes (m runs) 14,30 G3 12/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 11/130,41p, +1)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

None today from me.

 

Recent Tips

(running total, from 07/06/18: 2/6,2p, +11.5) 

None.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

44 Responses

    1. iv’e been looking at the qualifiers the system is coming up with and i’m happy to carry on with this as none have been no hopers and results could easily have been better than they are.
      results 8 selections 0 wins,3 places, staked 8 pts returns 4 pts down 4 pts

  1. Sunday wahey!! After yesterdays win/forecast and near misses, looking to today and although the fields are smallish, there is still value to be had!

    14:35 Goodwood
    PANKO 100/30 gen 2 pt win
    his latest run finishing 3rd at Chester in a stronger race,suggests he has found his way now switched stables,that was his first run for the new stable,and of the season,so can build on that in this weaker race, as this one`s price drifts and becomes better value, my other pick is coming in…
    SEE OF ROME 5/1 gen 1pt ew
    A little disappointing this season so far but he drops to Class 5 level for the first time since breaking his duck at Salisbury last June. Third and fourth in two course visits, the most recent when placed from seven pounds higher. Each way shout if the returning cheekpieces help.

    15:45 Goodwood
    CHIVERS 7/1 gen 1pt ew
    a very much improving horse,loves it here,he won over 14f here latest winning comfortably off (64) and was running on at the line,so definitely not finished yet,he beat Navajo Star who was raised 2lb and won last time out at Wetherby,so form solid.
    GAVLAR 14/1 gen 1pt ew
    Stanley is a strong favourite but hasn’t run this distance & Imphal has form against Gavlar on their latest run at this distance (Gavlar had 8lb more jockey weight). Today Gavlar is 1lb lower (6lb less jockey weight) & Imphal is 4lb higher (1lb more jockey weight). Chance!

    16:05 Nottingham
    ERRISIMUS MAXIMUS 6/1 gen 1pt ew
    was beaten a touch over 2L by (Justanotherbottle) latest at Redcar 5f the tip is 6lb better off today,his form is rock solid,his previous race,he finished 3rd to Major Jumbo at Newmarket beaten 1.5L that horse finished 2nd today in another class sprint,solid form.

    17:15 Nottingham
    BRIGADOON 12/1 gen 1pt ew
    from Michael Appleby yard the 11yo is getting on in years but seems to like the running as he’s been hurdling AW and the flat turf, He’s won eight races from 1m 2f to 1m 6f on ground varying from good to firm to soft and on the all-weather, He’s also had 28 place finishes in a total of 79 rules races
    Since coming to Appleby yard he’s ran here four times with a 4th place and three place finishes with his last run coming here 19 days ago over 2m (firm) when 3rd with Alistair Rawlinson in saddle, The yard bring him back in distance to 1m 6f and go with same jockey and handicapper took another 2lbs off to 64 mark.
    CRAY 6/1 gen 1pt ew
    Fancied this at Doncaster last time, I went to the meeting and there was a massive downpour for about an hour pre race which really went against him, he ran well for a long way but got tired in the ground. Drops down to a mark in the 60’s for the first time and this should be his level having run in class 2 events for 3 of his last 5 runs last year. 6/1 looks a fair price and I will be betting this one.

    Good luck with whatever you back today!

  2. LTO Losers

    None today.

    Yesterday was Kodyanna 7s into 4s hardlines with Bahuta Ache couldn’t get in front but a nice place at 16s. La Sioux lost but BA and LS were previous winners.

    Thanks to Nick for yesterdays 2 winners it was looking like a losing day until they came in. Pity about the R4.

    Mike

  3. Well I left it late yesterday but got there in the end. I have way too much to do today so I am afraid no time for write ups.

    Brigadoon Nottingham 17:15 1pt e/w-Price taken 9-10/1
    Lord Vetinari Goodwood 17:30 1pt e/w Price taken 12-14/1

    1. I did do the £10 yankee yesterday and the last two winners at 9/2 and 10/1 and so had a return of £605. Thanks for that, off to Lake Garda Tuesday but owe you another drink.

      1. That can’t possibly have been value surely? The horses were tipped at 10/1 and 12/1 or something like that, so taking 9/2 and 10/1 is going to lose money hand over fist. Unless the overnight money was a sign that they were both well fancied I suppose, but Nick has also had other horses that have been similarly well backed before losing. Maybe I’m missing something, but I can’t see how putting horses in multiples can be profitable when the prices have plummeted.

        1. You are missing the tradition of the Yankee bet. On the previous occasion Nick put up four selections in one day I did a £10 win Yankee and he had two winners and two non runners and I made a profit of £8,360. I then said that whenever he has four selections in a day I would repeat the Yankee bet. I can only do such bets in betting shops as I am restricted online as I am a fill time trader. I can only take the BOG available in the Coral shop, hence the prices for the latest bet. I am now a celebrity in there after the initial bet and get free sausage rolls and picnic eggs on a Saturday (no expense spared in Corals).
          Thereby is the Yankee story, long may it pay for holidays.

  4. COLINS BETS
    Delighted to say no bet today,never had such a poor run,however i have every faith that it will turn around soon,will put up the returns tomorrow sadly will make grim reading.

  5. I think it has been the same for all of us reading the comments from the last few weeks. Winners here and there, but, nothing to really get the heart racing apart from watching your betting bank emptying at an alarming rate.
    I personally have been treading water since beginning of April for some reason cannot seem to get a run together.
    I know my methods are proven and they will bring in the moola, just, it seems to be every year for the last couple, around April/May my methods do not come to fruition.
    Consulting 100 hints for better betting has helped me along and always will, but, for hours after a day has finished i sit here thinking…”Am I really denting the bookies satchel?”…

    1. It would be good one day for us all to get together and go through one another’s approaches/systems. I am sure that we could all help one another. My approach is simple, find tipsters/micros and systems that work long term and stake them and stick with them through peaks and troughs. I put in a lot of hours over the years and continue to do so to achieve this.
      One thing that works for me is write out a system/micro/process on my whiteboard, have a stare at it and work out what may need tweaking or why it works and go from there.

      A horse racing book worth a read – Horsetrader. The story of Robert Sangster and the rise of Coolmore and Godolphin. It is old and so not cheap on Amazon, but the ebook on Apple ibooks is only £2.49.

      Good luck.

        1. i did when I had a discounted membership in the past. They are good but a bit pricey. However I would go back to them if I needed another good tipping service and there were no cheaper alternatives. Not for low stakes bettors though.

        2. I’ll be emailing out about them on Tuesday, their latest trial with GG went very well, they have another £10 offer for 30 days on, and given the racing in the next 30 days, worth joining just for that in truth, even if no interest in staying beyond it. Learn from write ups and their long term record is very good, but I would agree with Martin to a point, probably not worth bothering long term if you don’t at least start with £10 per point, if not 20, 100 point bank should be fine. Think on average they have churned out 80-150 points per year across both codes but would need to check. I wouldn’t put anyone off checking them out certainly.

          1. I signed up with Cleeve a few days ago because of their £10 trial. A losing couple of days so far, but aside from that they seem like a very professional setup. Like Martin and Josh have said, it’s an expensive service which might make me decide not to stay beyond the trial period.

            One thing I did notice is that they only recommend a 40 point bank, so maybe 100 points (which is my standard bank for a new service too) is overly cautious. I imagine they’ve looked at their historical results and losing runs when arriving at that figure, given how professional they appear to be.

        3. I’ve been with them for a couple of years now. Not cheap (I bet at £20 a point with them) but long term good returns.

          1. Mark – They bet mostly on Saturday races and the big festivals, concentrating on Class 2 and above. Bets are usually released the night before (only exceptions are weather related) & the prices they quote have always been obtainable.

          2. Thanks for your feedback guys, I’ve been out all day so couldn’t respond earlier, I tend to back at smaller stakes but will give it serious thought.

      1. Martin…. I bet in both handicapped and non handicapped races but only bet on novice horses. So far this month I’m about +27, but I tend to play the middle to long end of the market so can be volatile. Strike rate is around 15% so is to be expected. I don’t mind putting them up but they are not tips in the true sense as I only play on Betfair and don’t usually get involved until they are going down to post.

        I make my shortlist in the morning and then wait for the races to come up, if I can get the price about any on my list between post time and the off, then I’m in. Not sure how it would work on here, but might give it a go just to see.

        Tim

          1. Josh….. Novice as in debutantes and others that have just enough runs to get themselves a handicap mark. In handicaps they are mostly first time handicappers as the more runs they get under their belt the more accurate the market becomes about their chances. I tend to get more bets in non-handicap races though, most likely because first time handicapped horses get more attention by the media and the punters, particularly when they are in hands of certain trainers. Mark Prescott, John Gosden etc,etc Is tough to get the odds you need to get the value at post time about these kind of runners. Bookies usually have them well stitched up anyway before the market opens these days, so don’t feel like I’m missing out on anything. The smaller stables that know how to ‘ready one’ are usually where I find the required odds.

            I’m more of a bloodline student than a form student TBH, but the game is all about making profit. The good thing about novices is that they have yet to be taught the bad habits of their predecessors, so you can be more certain that they will run to the best of their abilities. Make no mistake…. poor jockeys ruin good horses.

            Tim

          2. What you might call unexposed horses. Tricky stuff as horses are like humans in that they mature at different rates. I would have thought that such horses would be supported in the market or not if they were fancied? Therefore backing them late would mean lost value but some indication that they were fancied somewhere. I was more interested in methodologies than actual selections and you have outlined an approach. I understand the breeding approach but what would it tell you about unexposed horses? What distances or going they would be best suited to? Whether they mature early or late? I am not much of an expert on bloodlines.

          3. Stallions that regularly produce precocious progeny can be detected quite easily from the stats but like form reading, it all has to be taken into the context of the race conditions on the day. Plus… even though some stallions are known to produce more than their share of first time out winners not every foal they produce is going to be one. Is good when the punters latch on to such a horse from a big stable and back it into odds on, cos there is often a big priced alternative to interest me back in the field. They seem to forget that these are youngsters, most of which have never set foot on a race course before and once the chaos factor kicks in (especially over jumps), anything can happen.

            Sure… you have no hard form you can call upon but backing these kind of horses is all about subtleties, nuances and the odds on offer really. There is no hard and fast way of making a selection cos as I said before it all comes down to the context of the race, so is probably not a niche that best suits systemites. All I can say is that by studying them you get to recognise the clues and know when the odds on offer are just too big.

            Tim

  6. PAULS BETS 2wins out of 2 so far last 2 days 4/1 4/1 for a 1point eah way profit of 9.6 points. Today from value point quit poor so we will go 2points win on stanley 3.45 goodwood good luck

  7. Tips – 2.55 Not, Thundercloud, 1 point each way, 8/1 BOG. Won on seasonal debut and then third at Newmarket LTO. Today’s trip should suit as does the ground. So should go close.

    I am minus 10 points this month and so need a turnaround on tips.

    Good luck.

  8. had a spare few minutes so a quick look through and came up with a ew lucky 15
    Ateem – 14.00 Goodwood 13/2
    Becca Campbell- 14.35 Goodwood 14/1
    Thundercloud – 14.55 Nottingham- Paying 4 Places 7/1
    Brigadoon – 17.15 Nottingham 11/1

  9. If you have a good system then in the long term things will change but its inevitable that a losing run is unsettling – as Josh has said many times you have to retain an adequate bank – if you are backing horses with a 25% strike rate you will have an expected losing run of 24 within a 1000 bet cycle – when it is 10% then the losing run could be as much as 66

  10. We had a june strategy for Peter Bowen’s runners last year,i think it was fairly profitable,he has hit a rich vein of form again so it might be worth watching his runners again,Josh might confirm but I think it might be handicapers with 5 or less nh rules wins

  11. I follow the main RTP flat strategies blind, along with Josh and Nick’s tips. I also follow a couple of other tipsters. All of them show a good profit over the long term. There will be ups and downs with all of them but they usually average out at a profit on a monthly basis with occasional cumulative monthly spikes and monthly loss.

    If you take this approach it will smooth out the big spikes and the big losses. However, to do this you need a big enough bank account to cope with the occasional cumulative bad run. The trick is finding tipsters you can trust.

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