Free Daily Post: 09/06/18 (complete)

2.30 Muss: Scottish Sprint Cup Notes

There isn’t too much to go on for this one with my stats approach…

10/165 runners, 38 places

10/10 Age 7 or younger

9/10 yet to run at G1 or 2 level 

7/10 had 0-1 track runs

7/10 had 5-8 career wins (3/10 had 2 only) 

7/10 Top 3 LTO

7/10 ran 6-15 days ago 

Jockey claim 5 or 7 lb: 4/28,8p 

Trainers: No trainer has won this more than once in in the last 10 years. Barron 0/13,3p, Fahey 0/9,2p, Goldie 0/13,1p

There are 8 horses who hit the 10/10 and 9/10 stats, inc 2 or 5-8 career wins only: Dark Shot / Mayleaf Shine / El Astronaute / Major Jumbo / Soie D’Leau / Orions Bow / El Hombre / Excessible 

The one horse that hits all the X/10 stats is Some D’Leau I think, but they tenuous enough.

I have no strong views on this, my two against the field would be El Astronaute and Major Jumbo I think, for interest. 

Copper Knight (keep an eye on when back at York) Dark Shot and Final Venture looked of some interest also and may run big races.

GL if you have a go at anything.

Josh  

 

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  • SCOTTISH SPRINT CUP

    LINE OF REASON (12/1)
    Line Of Reason won this race 12 months ago and although he’s only won one time since, he’s a horse who needs good ground and his whole campaign has obviously been built around this race again. His preparation has been very similar to last year and he ran a good race when last seen to finish a staying on 7th of 18 at York off a 2 pound higher mark. He did not win but ran well in defeat last year before going on to win this race and the same has happened again but this time around he’s actually 7 pound lower than when successful last year and connections have got last years winning rider Joe Fanning back on board. Line Of Reason has been gifted a kind draw again being in stall 7 so there is every chance he can follow up this year or at least go very close off this much lower mark as I can assure you Midgley will have him ready for this race again and is overpriced to be honest.

    ORNATE (16/1)
    Ornate was a very good, tough horse when formerly trained by William Haggas and Robert Cowell. If you go through his form, he’s only run one bad race in all 25 career runs and has been so consistent. He won a couple of class 3 conditions races last year when rated 105 and 107 and had been running in a lot of listed/group races in between, finishing thereabouts each time. This five year old is all about speed and he threatened to get his head in front a lot of times towards the back end of last year when rated in the high 100’s against some of the classiest sprinters around on ground far from ideal (soft). He’s a much more effective horse when he gets good ground and his both runs this term have been in group company. Notably last time out where he was highly tried against the likes of Harry Angel, Sir Dancelot and Brando at York in a group two and he went well for a long way on the front end. That was over six furlongs so the drop back to 5 furlongs and back down to handicap company will help a lot and he’s also now down to a mark 100, which is more than lenient for a horse who is capable of higher level form. I think connections have plotted this race for Ornate since joining the yard and he’s drawn well in stall 4. He brings group form the table and gets his favoured fast food ground and also being drawn low, he should be able to attack from the front from an early stage. Ornate has a lot of pace so being dropped down massively in grade for this on a attractive mark, he must have a good chance and be hard to pass at a decent price.

    GL
    BC

    BRIAN 2 months ago Reply


    • A great write up Brian. Cheers and good luck.

      reillysmiley 2 months ago Reply


  • ITV racing.
    Haydock.
    2-15. Sea Youmzain 3-1
    2-50. Titi Makfi 8-1
    3-32. Muthmir 3-1
    4-00. Muntadab 40-1 for a reason shouldn’t have chance but i just like the horse.
    Muss.
    1-55. Reverend Jacobs 4-5, impressive at York lto can’t see him getting beaten
    2-30. sky are paying 5 places and iv’e gone for 3, Major Jumbo 10-1 (consistency) Ornate 14-1 (dropping in class) Merhoob 14-1 (c+d winner lto can defy 6lb penalty).
    Newmarket.
    3-05 Yafta 7-2
    3-40. Mark Hopkins 14-1.

    martin whittle 2 months ago Reply


  • 9th June 2018
    Beverley 3.15 Hilary Needler 5f Sprint
    Ratings
    1. Wedding Date, No Lippy, Kodyanna
    Ratings Bet 1pt Win Wedding Date
    I can’t help thinking that Wedding Date’s form from the National Stakes at Sandown is the best here. She was drawn 7 with only two outside her and did not get the best of breaks but still put it up to the best 5f sprint colts we have seen yet this season only giving way in the las t 75 yds. Today she has a big draw advantage over No Lippy and is next to Kodyanna. With the 1 horse withdrawn she is only 4 out and with a decent start should bag the rail and make all. These were my comments from Sandown. Wedding Date – Quite a slightly made filly, looked tremendously fit and as usual the Hannon’s dug out a good one who really tried hard. Not quite the size and scope to cope with the bigger boys here but losing nothing in defeat. Will take some beating against her own sex. 85
    More to follow
    Hugh

    alpha2 2 months ago Reply


    • Of the outsiders in the Needler I think a speculative e/w on Gypsy Spirit with Mosse up might pay dividends. 40’s generally.
      Hugh

      alpha2 2 months ago Reply


      • Thanks, I had a place bet – 10/1 🙂

        chrisrees 2 months ago Reply


  • Beverley 6:10 Global Spirit is a horse I have been watching since a little eye catching performance at the backend of last year on the AW, did not appear to really be put in the race last time out and although frustratingly never won at around 8-1 I think worth a little nibble later on this afternoon

    Mark 2 months ago Reply


  • 19.05 Stratford ROSSETTI

    Ideal Conditions – Stratford, 16 to 30days (1111)

    Notes – the horse has not been in the same form as when winning this race last year and I just hope that that a return to his track prompts a return to form. Ground trip ideal.

    David Peat 2 months ago Reply


    • What do you think about Cause Toujours in this race David? He was favourite in the 2017 champion bumper that Fayonagh won and here he is in this race?

      martin colwell 2 months ago Reply


  • After timing here as I forgot to click send. Won’t count the points from the 2pm!

    Newmarket 2.00 6f Nov
    Ratings
    1. Chance, Calyx
    2. Octave, Khaadem, Lorcan, Salam Zayed
    Ratings Bets 1pt win Chance, 1pt Win Calyx
    I’ve only seen the one, Salam Zayed and rated him 73 so not up to this level. Chance appeals most and with the support for Calyx, I have to cover both.
    Musselburgh 3.10 5f sprint
    Ratings
    1. Hard Solution
    2. Ballistic
    3. Woodside Wonder
    I thought this was a forecast and trifecta race but having watched the way Capitan James ran over 5f at Catterick 2to staying on well at the death I think he is too great a danger to ignore. No bet.

    Beverley 2.40 5f Brian Yeardley Conditions Stakes
    Ratings
    1. Victory Command, Big Ace, Life Of Riley
    2. Jungleinthebungle
    3. All the others except Tin Hat
    Nothing here stands out as a ratings bet. However I am drawn to Midnight Sands trained by James Given. He does occasionally get debut winners, often in these colours and must rate this one highly to throw him in here. A 5lb pull with Victory Command and Life Of Riley. He is drawn 2, BUT has Jungleinthebungle with Charlie Bishop inside him in 1 who will no doubt bounce and go. It could end up being between these two with the shorter priced horses not getting into it until very late.
    Fun bets 1pt win Midnight Sands. 1/6th pt combo ex Midnight Sands. Jungleinthebungle, Adam Tiler, Victory Command =2pts

    alpha2 2 months ago Reply


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