Free Daily Post: 08/06/18 (complete)

Notebook musings/report/today’s notes

Yesterday I shared some thoughts on looking back/utilising my recent losing tips, including a free ‘notebook’ report from the Members’ post, including notes on 40 odd horses. You can read that email HERE>>>

You can read the Notebook notes HERE>>>

Below are my notes from today’s members’ post on three of them that are running today… I don’t really fancy any at the prices personally… we shall see in time if just backing them blind for their next three runs works the oracle, or whether the more nuanced approach is best…


Recent Tips/Eye-catchers

(running total, from 07/06/18: 0/1,0p, -1) 

running total for backing blind ‘3 strikes and you’re out/stop at a winner’ for recent tips, listed below. I will use these as a ‘way in’ to decide if I wish to elevate any to ‘tips’ above. I would not advise simply backing them all as yet although from mid April I think that approach may be on around +60-70 points to morning odds. 

2.00 Carl- Suitcase N Taxi WON 11/1>7/1 (or, just back them blind :)) 

3.10 Bright- Buxted Dream 

9.10 Hayd- Magical Effect


Elsewhere… Notebook..there are two recent tips below, who I don’t really fancy to tip, and I’m not sure I even fancy for 1/4 points but we shall see how that goes! I think Suitcase N Taxi needs 6f to be seen to his best and in any case he takes on two or three in decent form here, including a 4/7 shot who bar an accident, should be winning again. But the yard is in form as we know, as is the horse. I just think he needs a stiffer test of stamina and he also won’t get an easy lead here, not without doing too much…which is never a bad legal tactic in order to get the mark down when you drop out tamely in the last furlong or so! I’ll wait for him to go back up to 6f, small enough field, easy lead assured and probably at a track with more of a bend. 

Buxted Dream…well I want to wait for a return to softer ground, and Spencer jumps off here onto the Simcock horse. I’m pretty sure he’d have had the choice, which may say something as to the chances of his mount, or not. But in any case he clearly didn’t want to ride him here. It could be that he does just want a small field, which is something to consider, and this is smaller than he has faced in recent runs. BUT, I also can’t help ignore the fact that the five above him in the market arrive in much better form, as do a couple of others. I’m sure he will show himself to be well handicapped at some point but I’m not sure it will be today, and he showed nothing LTO. One for change maybe, but I can more than live with not tipping him for 1 point, if he does indeed somehow bounce back here. I should add in this race…the Lacemaker should get an easy lead I think and he should be the one to pass late on… so use that pace info as you please. 

Magical Effect…he is running ok, but 11/2 wasn’t a big enough price to tempt me in here, especially as Ruth’s are hit and miss again…he could go close, and it’s his final run of the three strikes and you’re out… he does drop back in class and is up in trip, which may suit, so no forlorn hope. Maybe he’ll overturn Lamloon later on. 




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6 Responses

  1. 19:05 Goodwood – SHRAAOH (11/2) generally, 3 places at 1/5 odds.

    Not the strongest of staying handicaps for this grade and I like top-weight Shraaoh, who has been holding his form well in class 2 company since winning at Newcastle by 6 lengths back in 2016. He has gone well at this track before, finishing a short head second over 1m4f behind Dal Harraild in a class 2 off this mark 91, and the winner is now rated 111 so that form is very strong and it leaves Shraaoh very well-handicapped here. He’s also run well in defeat behind the likes of Wall of Fire, Dylan Mouth etc off a mark 93 in better company and he made a good, solid reappearance last time out at Newmarket over this trip, where he was keen early on and held every chance until finding no extra at the line and was only beaten a couple of length in fourth. That’s a solid effort because the first three home all had race fitness on their side and Shraaoh was making his seasonal debut and would have needed the run. Trainer Kevin Ryan retains Jamie Spencer in the saddle who rode the son of Sea the Stars that day so with Shraaoh remaining on the same mark tomorrow whilst dropping down in grade and with that run under his belt, there is every chance he can win this up against easier opposition.

    1. Well, my assessment of him was clearly wrong! 🙂 Maybe backing blind will do the trick, time will tell.

      You have a nibble? Hope so.

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