Members Daily Post: 07/06/18 (complete)

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Yarmouth

3.20 – Free Forum (all hncps) ES+ G3 3/1 S3A   UP

3.50 – Arcadian Sea (m going) I1 G3 13/2 S2 S6 3rd 

4.50 – Saphil (3yo+, + m age) (hncp debut) 16/1 UP

5.20 –

Dark Side Jazz (3yo+, + m age) 25/1 UP

Macho Guest (m TJC) (hncp debut) 12/1 UP

Ripon

3.10 – Mikmak (m TJC) 14 I3 G3 5/1  WON 5/1>7/2 

3.40 –

Storm Ahead (m TJC) 14 G3 12/1  UP

Trading Point (m dist move) w2 H3 I3 10/3 UP

5.10 – Regal Mirage (m TJC/dist/class) w2 14 H1 I3 G1 7/4 S1 S2 S4 3rd 

Carlisle

6.05 – Little Kim (2YO) 5/1 WON 5/1>17/2 

7.15 – Starplex (m class) w2 ES+ H1 I1 G1 10/3 S1 S3A S4 UP

8.50 –

Ghayyar (m TJC/class move) 14 G3 10/1 WON 9/1 (10pR4)>11/4 

Amy Blair (m dist + runs) 10/1

Heir of Excitement (m class/age) I3 14/1 

9.20 –

Zoravan (m dist) ES+ 8/1 S3A  UP

Angel’s Acclaim (m class/age) 8/1

Royal Connoisseaur (m class) G3 12/1 UP

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Haydock

None. 

Sandown

None. 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 10/127,39p, -6)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

8.50 Carl – Ghayyar – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) (posted around 8.45) WON 9/1>11/4 

that will be all for tips

Ghayyar… I wanted to take a chance on this one at what could be a big price, but like most in here he has a few questions to answer now. Tim Easterby is in decent form for one with the number of runners he has, 13/57,22p in the last 14 days. Trainer and jockey are 5/23,9p when teaming up in C5 handicaps at the track, 3/8,4p when such handicaps are over this trip. Before this season started the trainer was 7/24,11p,+36 when dropping horses in class at the track. I thought it of some mild interest that they go from a 12k York C4 to a 4k Carlisle C5 here. The horse also takes a big drop down in trip, which may suggest they don’t know what his best trip is. However i’m yet to be convinced he stays 10f+, and he wasn’t really asked for mush of an effort the last day. He had some ok form for Hannon especially at Newmarket when winning his maiden over 8f and running well in an ok race over 9f, beaten late on. It could be he isn’t in form, or that in these conditions on his third run of the season, up this stiff hill, we could see an improved performance. I was also swayed by the opposition. Maybe I have the two at the top wrong but I couldn’t touch them at the price. The Fell horse could just be better now but the trip is a concern, especially here, and he is 0/8,1p on Good/Good to firm, and he didn’t beat much the last day. However he does arrive here in form, which is more than can be said for most of the others. Energia Flavio is now 0/34 in handicaps, 0/16,1p in turf handicaps. It will be a poor race if that record is improved imo and for that reason he has to be taken on. I’m sure Mustaqbal wants it softer and Dods is in iffy form…we are then left with two other stats qualifiers. The Ryan horse has the headgear reapplied but that isn’t enough to tempt me on the back of that last run in similar conditions. They may work their magic though. Amy Blair…will give this a good go from the front but I was struggling to see why he would improve on that run just 5 days ago…but if a horse gets loose on the lead, anything can happen, and he will appreciate this track you’d think, given his liking for Hamilton. Not the worst cover bet I suppose, but he does just look out of sorts. I would like to think they may try and be more aggressive on the selection, tracking the pace and kicking on, testing other’s stamina. His handicap mark is in free fall and i’m sure they will find the key at some point. He is lightly raced, the yard is in form, he is doing a few things different, and there are holes in the top of the market/others, to my eyes anyway! We shall see how he goes.

Elsewhere… I was happy to leave Echo Cove, tipping wise. We shall see in time if it’s wise just to back them blind for a few runs. He has run well the last twice but does give the impression he wants further now. He also bumps into 3 very lightly raced horses from powerful yards/connections, and that Walker horse looks decent enough also. Maybe he will win today but it’s a deep race and i’d be more interested when they try him over 10f, or in a big field all age handicap over 8f on a galloping/stiff track.

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Re-cap… that’s just the sort of losing tip I can cope with. The selection has ran a brave race and it was the right bet at the odds, but has bumped into the one I feared. I hope you took covering fire or maybe even did the forecast, as touched on. I know a few of you did. I read the race ok and was right to take on the Fav. It will come, and when it does, it will hopefully be a big profit spike. My tipping profit has always comes in spikes since I started blogging, so we have that to look forward to, provided I don’t have to wait until next year’s Festival!! 🙂

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Recent Tips/Eye-catchers

any thoughts to follow on morning of racing…

4.20 Yarm- Echo Cove 8/1 (tipped two starts back at Newmarket)

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NOTE: 5f Handicap Sprint Test 

running total: 0/3,3p

This test is still in my thinking, but as always Section 2 comes first, and then if time any 3m+ hncp chases, and after all that if there is time I will flick through. A previous ‘tip’ in this test, Krystallite, bolted in yesterday at what turned out to be a good price, having gone too hard the race before/bumped into one/possibly not 100%. Onto today…

This one won’t be counted as I don’t think he’s value, but it’s good to test the theory, regardless of price… Acclaim The Nation looks like the one to beat in the 4.00 Haydock, 5/2 or so. He is the only out and out front runner in the field, his speed figures on a few criteria are decent enough, and he comes from a hot race, given he was only beaten by the Dash winner LTO and one other. It was solid form. I see no reason why he won’t go close here.. the one niggle is the jockey change, who doesn’t know the horse, and he’s not in the best of form at the moment/maybe not riding with confidence. Were Hart on, and were he 7/2, I may well have put him up for ‘test purposes’ but do with that info as you please. Given he will be the one they have to pass (if i’ve read it right), that does open up some fun change ‘RFC’ options, if you can pick one out you think may get the better of him/chase him home! GL

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell

2.40 Rip – Ad Libitum (not TH) 5/1

3.10 Rip – Mulligatawny 5/1

3.40 Rip – Zodiakos 14/1

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW! Notebook report HERE>>>

Notebook... I have trawled through every Members’ post from the 1st May and added relevant tips/other eye catchers into my geegeez tracker. I have also looked into April and March, adding in all my Cheltenham Festival losing tips for future reference next season and other horses of interest. The report above only includes notebook horses from 1st May. It’s rather sad but I did spend some time trawling through those Festival posts/winners/your comments just to remind myself of the good times, in what is a minor blip at the moment! On of you, William, had some foresight as on the Friday of Festival week he mused that I should remember that day when the next low point comes! So, remember it I have. Of course all of you who’ve joined post Aintree probably don’t think I have a clue what i’m doing, but I do, some of the time. I’ll be back in form soon.

I made notes on all tips + other eye catchers from the start of May, and you can read that report HERE>>>

It’s for my own reference as much as anything but thought i’d share it.

It includes around 40 horses with some brief thoughts on each. There are now 92 horses in my tracker  and the good thing with Geegeez is that you can see future entries for the next week, which is handy. Mike is doing a sterling job in highlighting them and I will try and get in the habit of highlighting previous tips in section 2, to use them as you please. Some of them I will tip again. From when Mike started tracking my losing notes tips (section 2) on 21st May they are 5/22, +33 points (early/bog) I believe. Having flicked through there were at least two more winners in the few weeks before that at 9/1 and 25/1 that won on their next start after being tipped. (plus a handful of losers also) Given that my tipping focus is generally on unexposed handicappers it makes sense they should improve at some point and often i’ve been pulling the trigger too soon. I would not advise backing them blind until more evidence emerges, but I will add any relevant notes, and tip etc as and when. It should prove a profitable way in and given the amount of losers i’m backing we best find a way to try and profit from them in future!! I think we are best operating on a 3 strikes and you’re out – so highlighting them for 3 starts after tipped, and then leaving them. Or, stop at a winner. There are a few who on reflection want softer ground and it will be a case of waiting for more suitable conditions. Of course you’re free to track them also, for as long as you wish.

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For one final time here, the two links below if you haven’t seen them. The first will now live in the research link in the Key, and the second has it’s own link in the key above also, for future reference.

SUMMER STATS 2018: READ HERE>>> (version 2, Haydock SP figure was missing for Dascombe/Kingscote)

Section 1 Strategies: Where to begin?  Please Read HERE>>>

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NOTE: i am on my travels again in the next week but again, you won’t notice any difference. I’m off back down south to Thetford Forest on Sunday with friends to watch Kasabian, which should be fun. Next week both of the horses I have shares in are down to run, Really Super at Lingfield on the flat and then Blessed To Empress at Nottingham. I was at the races that day anyway to meet up with The Betting Insiders Club gang amongst others, so that will add some further excitement. As always i’ll keep you posted as to my own thoughts on their chances. Aintree have a meeting next Friday also, which I may attend, although I’ll have to pay premium for the privilege of not watching Craig David I think!

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RIP Old Boy…

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