Members Daily Post: 04/06/18 (complete)

Tips x4, (+write ups) Section 1 (comp) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Windsor

7.15 – Louie De Palma (4yo+ / TJC) 9/2

 

Ayr

6.30 –

Melaniemillie (m dist/going) I3 10/1  UP

Dundunah (m runs) 9/1 UP

7.00 – Vallarta (m dist/going) I1 G3 4/1 S2 

7.30 –

Explain (m going) H3 I3 9/1 

Areen Heart (m runs) I3 G3 8/1 

8.00 – Cosmic Chatter (m dist/going)  18/1

8.30 – In Focus (m class) I3 11/1 

 

Leciester

None. 

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

3.50- Jack Snipe (hnpc c) I3 7/2 WON 4/1 

4.50-

Tikkinthebox (hncp c) w2 w1  H1 I3  7/2 UP

Lillington (m class/runs) 14,30 6/1  WON 6/1>4/1 

5.25 –

Hardness (all hncps) 14/1 S2 UP

Cornish Beau (m class) (trainer change) 50/1 UP

Starlit Knight (m class) I3 14/1 S2 S5  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 10/119,38p, +2)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

5.25 NA – Baihas – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) PU..ah such a shame, I hope he’s ok but I fear the worst, going wrong after a scrappy jump… it was early on but the position he had in 3rd, and how strongly he was travelling, suggests to me he would have been thereabouts at the end, but that’s insignificant as I fear he’s badly hurt. 

6.30 Ayr – Lady Cristal – 1 point win – 12/1 (PP) 11/1 (gen) UP 9/1 (too keen, didn’t settle, found nil, looked awkward. poor) 

7.30 Ayr – Kupa River – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP, poor. Gone far too fast I think, given how he folded. Don’t know what to make of that. I knew it may not rain but hoped it would, one to track when some cut maybe. Tiercel may be worth tracking from that. 

8.00 Ayr – Cosmic Chatter – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP 33/1, never travelling, summed up the day. 

That will be all for tips, posted 09.05. 

Note: from now on ,esp Mon-Friday i’ll endeavour to post up all tips in one batch, and aim for approx between 8.30-9am. 

Baihas… he doesn’t appear anywhere on here as being a stats qualifier/way in, but having looked at the race due to the qualifiers above, i really wanted to have a go at 8s. I feel this could go one of two ways as he’s either got problems/may need another run or two in handicaps, or he could be thrown in and bolt up. This horse has had his problems and used to be trained by Sir Michael when younger, where he won a maiden and got a flat mark of 85. He was then thrown in to a Group 3 at Royal Ascot, where he ran respectably in midfield. That was in 2013. SMS put first time cheekpieces on him there, Mulholland goes for 1st time blinkers today… coincidentally he is 3/15,4p with all handicap hurdlers running in 1st blinkers, and he doesn’t reach for them too often choosing the more selective route. I don’t think you ever want to waste a go in 1st time headgear and found it interesting enough he puts them on for this run. The horse makes handicap hurdle debut here having been pottering around in Soft/Heavy/GS novice hurdles. I have no idea how he has been given a mark on what he has done, it looks like guesswork to me! I suspect he hated the first time tongue tie LTO and in any case has had a break, surely waiting for better ground, given his flat form was on a road. Mulholland is 10/51,19p, +27 SP with C5 handicap hurdlers returning after 60+ days off. In what looks a moderate enough C5 summer handicap I thought there was enough to go on there at 8/1. It could be he needs the run, he could be too fresh, he may hate the headgear, although surely they have worked him in them (although, as an aside… Willie Mullins never works horses in headgear, they first time they get it applied is on track, which makes logical sense as you usually apply them hoping for improvement) He just looked fascinating, and a bit similar to Nick’s tip yesterday- although probably a couple more questions/chinks. The market may well guide but if he gets a good position and is clearly travelling well/jumping, we could have some fun. Either way, given his profile and that flat mark of 85 (running off 88 in a handicap hurdle here) if he retains any ability, Mulholland will get wins out of him this summer. 

There are three stats qualifiers in the race above… the hobbs horse Hardness gets 1st time blinkers also and Dickie is on… those two things could make a difference. He didn’t do much at Taunton two starts back and he does just look moderate at the moment/too many questions. But given the headgear I have had a small nibble just in case at the odds. He is lightly raced in handicaps and you can never be shocked when a horse like this runs well in a race like this. Down is 0/16,1p at the track with handicap hurdlers returning after 60+ days off.. Starlight Knight would be of more interest on the back of a run, but at what is now 16s, again I have had some change on, as she has the ability if leaving behind her last three runs, which were abject.

Lady Cristal...tipped at Nottingham LTO when withdrawn on the basis of the ground, at a big price. I’ll have another go. 11s was enough to lure me in again here but she may well be another NR depending on the weather. I started the morning thinking i’d best leave Ayr, given they could get thunderstorms later on watered ground, and who knows what the going could be! Soft won’t be an excuse for the other two tips, and they are versatile, but this one clearly wants a sound surface. Hopefully the trainer pulls her out again if it goes soft, or they decide to get a run into her. The horse is only 1/7,2p in flat handicaps and there should be more to come as a 4 year old. She had some ok form last year and is now on her lowest career mark of 60 having won from 66 and 68 already. Trainer/jockey are 4/26,8p in C5 handicaps on turf and I found it interesting that Curtis is back on, having won on her before. He rides Ayr well and Burke has a decent enough record here, 3/12,7p in C5 handicaps in the last 2 years. This is also a Fillies handicap which looks fairly open, and she moves up in trip and drops in class from LTO. It wouldn’t surprise me if 5f is too sharp on decent ground/grass for her now, as she gets older and she is a distance winner. That run the last day was also her first in 14 weeks or so. She should be sharper here. Happy to have a dart.

I was happy to leave the two stats qualifiers at 10s for one reason or another, OMeara’s has a distance niggle but again that’s more of an unknown and she may now want this trip, second run of the season. She didn’t look to stay it at Thirsk last year but that was early on in her career. The Carr horse looks a tad out of sorts and is now 0/8,2p in Class 5. Were this a class 6 I may have been more interested and also if both were 16s+ I may have stared at them for longer. No doubt I may have got one wrong, but i can’t back them all in this race!

Kupa River... one from the Fell test angle below…and in truth I think he looks my most solid stab out of all these today. This is the horse’s first run in a 7f handicap which I found interesting and moves down in trip by 1f from LTO, where he ran well for a long way. He comes here in form as does his trainer, 4/22,12p in the last 14 days. On his 4th run of the season he could be about to peak. He came 1/2 a length second off 87, four runs ago in Ireland for Ger Lyons, and races off 79 here. This could be the perfect trip for him. He is a potential pace angle and could lead, in any case he should be up there, but will need a decent start from his draw. That run the last day suggests GF is fine, and at least this is watered ground. But he won’t mind any rain that falls and you’d think it would improve his chances. But at his price, given that last run, I couldn’t leave him on account of the ground, which is GF as I type. He is top rated on Geegeez also, which is never a bad thing. Were he a qualifier in section 1, he’d be an S6. Trainer/jockey are 3/10 in handicaps at the track, and the trainer is 3/13,5p with all handicappers here in the last year- he appears to now know the sort of horse needed to do well here, and doesn’t seem to waste a trip too often. Hamilton rides the track well, 3/13,5p in handicaps here in the last year.

Explain is of some minor interest at 10s I think given he moves down in class here and this is the easiest race he’s run in for a while. He is just more on the very exposed end in the context of this race and 10s is only ‘ok’. Areen Heart hasn’t won since his maiden in 2016, and as such at a single figure price I can more than live with him beating me. No bother. He could go well enough.

Cosmic Chatter...  a proper exposed horse and he’s a notebook runner from two starts ago where he stayed on well at Ponte from the back, in a race where you needed to be on the pace, beaten by two unexposed ones. A repeat of that run should put him in the mix here I thought. He is fine in all race conditions, is well handicapped again and has won at C4 level. He hasn’t raced at Ayr since 2015 and there were valid excuses for his three runs here, to my eyes anyway. The last run is a write off I think. He missed the start and never looked happy. He was taken off his feet, marooned up the middle of the track, and something bothered him- I wonder if the ground was too firm for him there, given his head carriage and the way he hung at times. He still stayed on well enough, and was at least going forward at the line, suggesting he was holding his form to some degree. Rain would be no bad thing for him here and there is some pace to aim at. In general, for all of his decent runs, he’s been ‘up in the van’ and given he’s been held up on recent starts, I hope they try and race him up there and keep him interested. It may all happen too quickly again, but at 16s, I just couldn’t leave him, as it would be sickening at those odds if he bounced back, which he could well do. Carr is in one of here ‘are they in form or out of form’ periods, who knows! That is partly down to her training methods I think.

This seems an open enough race… I have had change (code for 1/4 point, £5 for me, which every horse underlined/italics in section 2 receives) on Fell’s other qualifier below…Imagine If, given he is 10s, and the trainer is red hot/same stats pointers as above. He is also lightly raced for connections, ran well two starts back, and that last run can be written off. I do think he needs the rain to arrive, based on what we know- he does seem better with cut, and his chance will improve greatly if the heavens open.

We shall see how they all go! There is at least method to my madness, three of them are unexposed enough in conditions and ‘doing something different’ etc and they are all a decent price.

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Red Alert has been flagged by Mike below..that horse steps up from a C5 apprentice race into a deep enough C3 here, and the trainer has a rather moderate record at the track. That was enough for me to leave him even at 20s, but we know what happens now! Surely that’s too competitive for him, but he is a sprinter in form seemingly, so maybe stranger things have happened.

That’s the lot for today, Gl with any bets.

Josh

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Irish Angles

De Bromhead/Summer (any odds)

4.00 List

A Rated / Attribution / Surf Instructor / Tisamystery

Tom Lacey (any odds)

2.20 NA – Silk Run

 

Flat

R Fell (any odds, 8/1< best)

7.30 Ayr – Kupa River

8.00 Ayr – Imagine IF

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Some Monday musings…

Hopefully the master that is Nick M ensured we all had an ok day on Sunday! 🙂 His winner helped me get over another second placed finish, although that one wasn’t too close this time.  His write up is worth reflecting on, as for me that’s as good as it gets in the tipping game, and plenty to learn from such an approach. It had everything.. a unexposed horse making handicap debut / valid excuses for jumps performances to date (running on unsuitable ground, to get a mark they could exploit when running in handicaps returned to Good+, ran on heavy LTO so an excuse for PU, and running over an inadequate trip, now stepping up) / a decent jockey and even more so in context of race / decent trainer-jockey stats/ a possible pace angle in a race with no confirmed front runners – jockey has made all a few times recently and if you think horse will stay/may even want further, being aggressive is an option, esp if you have best jockey in race on top / some ‘hot form’- to a degree, given some of those novice hurdles had produced a few winners who’d gone in from decent marks / horse had a decent level of form already on the level- Nick knew he had ability, had won a flat handicap off 80, run well in c2s of 87…they say adding 30-40lb to a flat mark is an ok guide for jumps, generally speaking, so safe to conclude at some point he may show himself to be chucked in / and finally…he was fit, third run of the year…. pretty much punting perfection and the culmination of 4 years of graft/analysis/improvement. I just need to land on a few more of those that have similar profiles when also a stats qualifier! Plenty to ponder. Top work…

Havisham Fakenham 16:25 1.5pt win-Price taken 11/2-After a week struck down with a virus I am just about on the mend so I thought I would try and get a write up in. I like the angle of Paige Fuller running in amateur races given the as she holds her own against the professionals which makes her head and shoulders above any of the other jockeys here. She is 3/4 in amateur races when riding for the trainer and has an excellent record for him in general. The horse won a class 2 flat handicap off a mark of 82 so considering he makes his handicap hurdle debut off a mark of 96 he looks to be chucked in. They’ve kept him on soft ground and to 2m over the winter (although even than he beat several horses now rated over 100 in December) and they now step him up to 2m5f on good ground. I expect her to make all.

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tbc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. Hi everyone not posted much recently due to my C**p selections and a lovely week off in Cornwall with the Grandkids, yes I am mad.
    anyway a horse tomorrow at Newton Abbot 4.10 jumped off the page, Tamarillo Grove, but the price is already dropping, saw it earlier at 11/1 now 8/1 so someone likes it, Loves this track, can make all or be held up, 2lb below it’s last winning mark, best C/D speed rating (Inform Ratings) and Sophie Leech’s only runner at course tomorrow.

    Cheers, Greg Phillips

    1. I missed the price but I agree with you. The fact that he was 0/13, 0p going right handed before his last run adds to what you said.

    2. Well done, I backed at 8/1 and laid at 5/1 but still made a few hundred quid. I owe you a drink.

  2. Firmdecisions Leicester Monday 17:10 1pt e/w Price taken 16/1
    Alba Del Sole Leicester Monday 17:40 1pt e/w Price taken 16/1

    1. Firmdecisions: In fairness this is competitive and there a couple here I liked (one which was Pursuing Steed so I am glad SP2A have tipped it) but this one looked the value pick. The horse is extremely well treated considering he was less than a length behind Taureen Star off a mark of 90 13 months ago and showed that he is not totally out of form when running OK on the AW this winter when moving to his new trainer. It should be pretty close to good/firm by the time this race starts today and what he wants is 7f on a straight track on good/firm. Trainer has a good record here and is in form. However the crucial factor in picking him today is the fact that the trainer has managed to book Silvestre and there appears to be very little pace on so given this horse appears best from the front I am hoping Silverstre will do what he does better than just about anyone. Silvestre has a great record here and a solid one for the trainer overall. 14s looked too big.
      Alba Del Sole: Has come out of a hot race where several have won or placed in class 5s. Has been dropped 3lbs and drops into a class 6. She is also stepped up to 7f which I think will suit. Jane Elliott is excellent value for her 5lb claim as she showed for our 25/1 winner last week so she is effectively 8lbs better off here. Trainer is in solid form and had a 15/1 winner with Jane on board recently. The likely pace appears to be in 3 and 11 so she should get a nice tow into the race and there is even a chance she may lead. Looked overpriced and has almost halved in price since last night.

      1. Big thank you nick. I don’t always comment on here but it doesn’t mean I don’t appreciate all the hard work you and others put in. I’m only small stakes but still enjoy a winner. Keep up the good work

  3. 1 at NA i like.
    3-20 . Cleni Wells 11-1 1/2 pt ew, cd winner of this race last year gets in off a 8lb lower mark, going is a concern likes a bit more cut in the ground any rain would be a positive.

  4. Brian Hughes goes West for two rides:-
    320 All Set To Go ( K Frost) 8/1
    525 Ballyegan Warrior (D Dennis) 16/1

  5. Josh

    LTO losers. There are 3 today.

    Lady Cristal – (Ayr, 18:30)
    Race: Best Flat Races Live On Racing Uk Fillies’ Handicap10/1
    Ran LTO 30/05 Notts NR
    Timeform Twelfth of 13 in handicap (20/1) at Musselburgh (5f, good to firm) 31 days ago, not ideally placed.

    Cosmic Chatter – (Ayr, 20:00)
    Race: Racing Uk Handicap16/1
    Ran LTO 18/5 Ham Notes
    Timeform Twelve runs since last win in 2017. Below form fifth of 9 in handicap at Hamilton (6f, good to firm, 5/1) 17 days ago

    Red Alert – (Windsor, 19:15)
    Race: Sky Bet Top Price Promise Handicap (Windsor Sprint Series Qualifier)25/1
    Ran LTO 20/4 Bath Notes
    Timeform Good third of 10 in handicap at Newmarket (6f, good, 6/1) 17 days ago

    Josh I will leave you to make any comment.

    Mike

    1. cheers Mike, much appreciated. Two of those do look interesting as above, and having left the other at 20s, we probably know what happens now haha.
      Josh

  6. COLINS BETS
    Newton Abbot
    4.50 Purple N Gold
    Windsor
    7.15 Volatile
    Ayr
    9.00 Lotara
    9.00 Hey Pretty

  7. Well done on the winner. Im not sure why your quoting a write up though. It wasnt on this site yesterday. Or now.

    1. ??? Hi Steven…

      It was not a tip from me, it was Nick in the comments on yesterday’s post, and he definitely did write that 🙂
      I’ve posted that above for my own educational purposes, and as that’s what I was pondering, I thought I would share it, with always the aim of trying to share musings that may make us all better punters in time, and just give anyone ideas about how they may look at certain horses etc. read/ignore/absorb etc as you please.

      As previously discussed, for those who ‘tip’ , in the members comments i think it’s good we are all open about results/progress etc… many share musings and snippets which is great, some share their own bets etc and all with something interesting to say that do, the odd new idea, and it’s good to see how other people think. That write up was quoted for those who may have missed it and to see how, in that example, how Nick’s fine analytical mind was working in that example.

      Nick has been ‘tipping’ the longest in the comments, in terms of posting a staking amount (usually 1 point EW or 1.5 points win from him) and on that basis and his results is the most consistent /profitable within the comments, on such ‘tips’ that have been shared. I have highlighted his results at back end of recent months so you can make an informed choice, as I have encouraged others to do who put in the time to ‘tip’ horses. He won +70 odd points in May, and is now past the +300 point mark I think since Sept 1st, over 200+ points up in 2018. He’s quite good 🙂

      That’s simply shared so that you can make an informed choice as to whether you ignore his comments, and others, etc etc.

      Sadly my pin didn’t land on him, but I follow his tips, so was able to cheer home a nice 8/1 winner. But there was plenty there for me to learn, or to re cap on ideas I have tried to apply myself, but as finding a horse to bet on goes, Nicks approach with that one was near enough as good as you get in my view.

      My own tips in members’ posts can be found in Section 2 above, which is where they live.

      Josh

      1. Thanks Josh.
        More fool me. In fairness just becoming familiar with the site. thats interesting leads to another question though. Are peoples ‘tips’ in the comments section recorded in terms of a points profit generally speaking. Or is it for a few regular contributors?

        1. Oh it can take a while to become familiar haha, but sadly such is the approach here that’s the way it is- it’s enjoyable if you give it time etc and ease your way in, and hence the reason for the length of trial.
          What those who post comments do in terms of results recording is up to them! I don’t keep a record but ask for updates every now and then…and the purpose of the comments is varied, it isn’t exclusively for other members to just ‘tip’ – many share their thoughts every now and then, horses they fancy etc , as with today.
          Yes I think most record any results to points profit, Nick’s generally to 1 point EW, as per stakes he enters next to the horse. Importantly it’s a window into people’s tipping, and the prices they get etc.
          The more comments, and the more varied, the better really. Everything is welcome, there are no rules. People comment as and when they please, while realising the vast majority of members’ don’t post.
          Josh

  8. Excellent content, Josh. My only bone of contention would be the use of “the last day” which in my opinion can only be used a/ if you are Irish or b/ ironically with quotation marks.

  9. iv’e been paper trading what i call a method system as it’s not a pure system over the past couple of months with some quite encouraging results, all bets are ew and 6-1 is the cut off point. 93 bets 7 wins, 16 places, +23 pts to 1/2 pt ew level stakes.
    i’m going to start backing them at £4 a pt from tomorrow and will post on here . i’ll keep full records of results, wish me luck this is when it all goes tits up 🙂

    1. Look forward to it Martin, best of luck. We do enjoy a good system/strategy test in these parts! Just keep positive even when there is a dip.

  10. Todays selection’s (RTR 3 etc); 4.6.18

    Art Of America 16:45 at Gowran Park @ 5.00 20 7/2 B365
    Louie De Palma 19:15 at Windsor @ 5.80
    Areen Heart 19:30 at Ayr @ 8.00
    Zamperini 19:45 at Windsor @ 14.00

    1. well, you may regret that when I hit a spurt haha… he has only just gone past me in the profit column since Sept 1st! 🙂 Although he’s now pulling ahead, i’d best up my game in truth.

  11. I am having a week in Lanzarote and noticed results over the last couple of days. Top work guys. Stewart I would shortlist all the guys selections on here and make a educated guess about what to back. Great set of people here.

    On another note I have just read Paul Jones book from Soba to Moldova ib a coyole of days. Utterly brilliant with lots of fantastic advice and hints. Highly recommended

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