Members Daily Post: 01/06/18 (complete)

Notes x3, Section 1 (comp), test zone, Epsom (comp)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Catterick

4.10 –

Lady In Question (all hncps+ 4yo+) w2 H1 I3 9/4 S2  UP

Kodicat (all hncps + age) 8/1 UP

Fashion Theory (micros distance/class) 16/1 2nd 22/1 (nose)

4.55-

Private Matter (all hncps + 4yo+) I1 7/2  WON 7/2>9/4 

Foxtrot Knight (micro class/distance) H1 G3 3/1 S2  UP

6.05 – Bee Machine (all hncps, 3yo+) w2 H1 I3 G3 10/3 S2 S4 3rd 

 

Epsom

3.45 – Brorocco (all hncps + 4yo+, + m dist) I3 10/1  2nd 10/1 

5.50- Belle Meade (all hncps) 25/1 UP (4th, run out for 3rd, wins in her)

 

Bath

5.45 –

Time Medician (4yo+) I3 20/1  UP

Essaka (4yo+) I3 25/1  UP

7.25 – Sir Plato (m age) 14/1 WON 14/1 (1op R4) >12/1>4/1 

7.55-

Coronation Cottage (3yo+ 5 yrs, 3yo+, m dist) 14,30 ES+ I3 G3 13/2 S3A 

Global Passion (all hncps) H3 5/1 

 

Doncaster

6.00 – Mr Tyrrell (m age) H3 I3 G3 4/1 S4 S5 2nd (sh) 

7.35 –

Danielsflyer (4yo+, + m age) 20/1 UP

Almoreb (m age) 7/1 UP

 

Goodwood

6.10 –

Ravenhoe (all hncps) 14 G3 11/1 3rd 

Pretty Jewel (m age) w1 H1 I1 G3 4/1 S1 S2 S4  WON 4/1>2/1 

8.15 – Paddy A (m runs) H3 13/2 

 

JUMPS

Market Rasen

None.

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/112,36p, -0.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

5.50 Epsom – Belle Meade – 1 point win – 28/1 (bet365/Lad) 25/1 (gen) UP (outran odds, no issue there, and a case that if she was ever able to bad rail in that race she may have won! Ran very well but up middle is clearly like soup compared to nearside, at least today. A decent run, ran out for 3rd, but I will back her to win one day! Much better) 

7.25 Bath- Sir Plato – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) WON 12/1>4/1 (phew!…made all, just, head bob, SH)

7.35 Donc – DanielsFlyer – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) UP (interesting tactics, very aggressive on one stepping up in trip… maybe that mark will come down! He may want it not as firm and maybe a fast run 6f is best, but one to track, he has more handicaps in him at some point) 

 

That will be all for tips

Belle Meade… a proper dart here and if she isn’t backed into 16s< I will know my fate. She hasn’t done much for Balding as yet but hasn’t had many goes in handicaps, drops in trip here, Probert on, and returns to soft…some of her best form last year was with cut in and there is a chance she relishes it. The move back down to 7f may unlock more and she is well drawn if able to get out and hold a position. In the end, 25s, 28s was just too tempting given her lightly raced profile in handicaps. She didn’t do much the last day- well she was awful really – but maybe she really needed the run, and the 8f was too far at Ascot, although there wasn’t much promise in it. One of those. It would have been easier not to back her and is the one i’m least confident of getting a run from out of the three of them, but there is some method and I wouldn’t be shocked if she ran her best race for the yard to date. There are plenty of in form rivals but in soft, plenty have questions, including a few who like to be held up right out the back and will need plenty of luck.

Sir Plato… probably the one I am most confident on of outrunning his odds… he has the form to figure here and is well handicapped, especially with the jockey claim. I found it interesting he comes out 4 days later here after his last run. It’s possibly he didn’t quite get home at Leicester over 8f up that hill, given all of his wins have been on flatter tracks.He ran well for a long way over 10f before that at Windsor, to suggest he was in some sort of form. He shouldn’t have a problem here and has placed over CD. What tipped me into a bet, was the pace… he really should be able to lead here, and try to make all. That is when he’s at his best with nearly all of his wins coming from the front. The Cole horse may be up there but I can’t think they will be too aggressive given they will want to get him home over 8f, and his jockey is now 0/37 or something at the track. He would have won at Brighton though if getting a clear run. Anyway, I thought 14s was too big, and fingers crossed he can get an easy lead and have no excuses, if good enough.

Danielsflyer… another poke here at a big price… the market suggests that this big field handicap is won before the race is run, and maybe that’s the case with the Varian horse..however, there isn’t loads of pace in this, on paper anyway, and if falsely run, strange things can happen. This one runs over 7f for the first time which I found interesting and thought that may unlock some improvement. He ran well two starts back at Ripon over 6f, staying on in a way which suggested he was worth a go over this far. I can forgive any horse a shocker at Ascot. He could just be out of sorts or a line can be put through that. Barron does well here and does have the odd biggie go in, although i’d like to see some money. He has a win on GF but equally shouldn’t mind if they do get a thunderstorm, which is possible. He ran in some very hot C2s last year and should appreciate these calmer waters. Barron will get a win from him at some point this season no doubt.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

D Pipe PU (14/1< guide)

5.20 MR- Red Square Revival 4/1

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.15 MR – Windspiel 8/11

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Epsom

Big Meeting Stats Pointers 

(5 years) 

Trainers

  • R Hannon/Non Handicaps: 4/13,5p, +8 
    • horse aged 2 : 3/5,4p
    • 2YO only races + 4yo+ : 4/6,5p, +18
  • M Stoute/handicaps: 3/11,6p, +5 

Jockeys 

Given the idiosyncratic nature of the track and maybe some pressure to perform at this meeting, I thought it may be worth looking at some jockey pointers…

  • O Murphy/Handicaps: 4/17,4p, +26 
  • SDS
    • 7f > 1m.5f races: 7/18,10p, +38 
    • Horse aged 3: 6/19,10p, +28 
  • James Doyle/All: 5/17,6p, +12
    • 1m.5f: 4/6,4p, +8
    • 3yo+ / 4yo+ races: 5/10,6p, +19 
  • P Dobbs/All: 3/11,5p, +34 

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Day 1 ‘qualifiers’/starting points

From the stats above…

2.00- Its The Only Way

2.35 – Mr Scaramanga / Mythical Madness

4.30 – Give And Take

5.15 – Lake Volta

5.50 – Swift Approval / Galloway Hills

 

Day 1 ‘through the card’ 

2.00 – It’s The Only Way / Marie’s Diamond

Not a race to go mad on if you’re track side, which I know at least one of you is, but Hannon (3/5,4p) and Johnston (4/15,8p) do like winning this race. 

2.35 – Mythical Madness / Medburn Dream 

Mythical Madness is no forlorn hope here at a price, and i’ve been lured in by the Doyle stats. At his best he would go close I think, and has a headgear switch to perk him up. Medburn Dream is just solid in all race conditions and should give this a good go from the front under Franny, hopefully seeing off Johnston’s early enough, or they will both set it up for a close

3.10 – get a drink and enjoy watching class at it’s best in equine form. 

3.45 – Not So Sleepy EW? / Brorocco EW

The fav does look very hard to beat as there is every chance he builds on that last run, definitely one for the place pot. But, funny things can happen here and he may run into trouble. Not So Sleepy looks solid and he really shouldn’t be far away. Maybe a 1-2 with the fav! Brorocco…I was on the fence and didn’t tip him…he is solid but I thought something may be better handicapped and soft is a bit of an unknown in open company- but if he runs his race, he will be thereabouts. 

Fahey/Gosden/Kittow are the trainers with 2 or more wins in this…only Fahey has a runner…I’m not 100% convinced as to his stamina, certainly in this ground, and bar some really bad luck for the fav couldn’t see why that form would be overturned. 

4.30 – Wild Illusion / Flattering 

Wild Illusion, according to both Spencer/Moore blogs today, is the one to beat so i’ll trust their judgement given I don’t really follow G1s that closely, bar watching and enjoying them. Moore says if that one doesn’t win then anything could win this- and we know what AOB outsiders can do, so maybe some change on his bigger priced ones. This race will tap into stamina reserves not yet seen in any of these fillies and something will relish it, and plenty of AOBs are bred to improve for middle distances in time. Maybe Beggy can add the Oaks to his surprise Derby win. Or another biggie will take it. 

5.15 – Lake Volta / Kings Shield

The latter probably a bit short but nothing wrong with wanting ‘winners’ when at the races, and Gosden has done well in this race (2/6,3p). Lake Volta at a price for the SDS stats

5.50 – Belle Meade / Swift Approval EW / Galloway Hill (of those at top) 

Two rags and i’ll touch on Belle Meade above… Swift Approval…seems big for one that is running well, is well enough handicapped, could get on the front end or in any case be in the right spot for a jockey that rides the handicaps well here, and his best turf form seemed to be on soft. I thought he should go well for a long way in this. The top two in the market look solid but 4s in a handicap like this makes me nauseous although they do both looks solid although they will come from further back. Maybe SDS will notch up one for his stats distance + age stats. 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

42 Responses

  1. Fresh Terms Doncaster Friday 20:40 1pt e/w Price taken 8/1
    Thammin Catterick Friday 16:55 1pt e/w Price taken 10/1
    Probably more to follow but these have just been tipped up elsewhere so price will likely contract.

    1. I could do with another Yankee please.

      In the Oaks I like I Can Fly each way in an open race. I am against Prefect Clarity based upon her breeding and the lack of success of her family in this race.

    2. One more which looks solid given proximity to fav LTO.

      Another Touch Epsom Friday 15:45 1pt e/w Price taken 10/1 3p and 8/1 4p split stakes (also PP are money back up to £10)

    3. Hi Nick

      Would just like to thank you for your selections yesterday, I put the 4 in a 50p ew Lucky15 and returned £440 who knows what may have happened had the other two ran?

      Much Appreciate your selections and work you put in.

  2. Josh

    LTO losers

    Only one today FOXTROT KNIGHT…4.55 Catt…11/4
    25/05 Notes
    Timeform Course winner. Latest win at Pontefract in May. 4/1, very good second of 11 in handicap at Pontefract (5f, good to soft) 7 days ago, conceding first run. Bold show expected

    Mike

    1. Cheers Mike,
      Yep just a bit too short now, his time/price was LTO sadly, but he should be going very close if holding his form.
      Josh

    2. Mickey thanks for putting LTO losers up starting to back them today so there will be a down turn on the winners from now on.
      Cheers

  3. no write ups, sorry.

    14:35 epsom
    Mythical Madness 1pt ew
    Masham Star 2pt win
    15:45 epsom
    ZZoro 1pt ew
    Another Touch 1pt ew
    17:50 epsom
    Shared Equity 1pt ew
    Black Bess 1pt ew
    All the best and good luck on whatever you back today!

    1. I`ll take today after May was so atrocious, note to self November and May have strange results that nobody can fathom…took 11/1 ep with betfair for Shared Equity, so happy i beat sp and Mythical Madness wasn’t far away!

  4. Tip – 5.50 Ep Galloway Hills, 9/2 for 2 points win. Will be suited by the soft going and has SDS on board, riding at 8′ 2” and so must be keen.
    I finished May 8.75 points up and since I started post Cheltenham I am 18.25 points up. Not great but not bad.

    Good luck.

    1. It’s going in the right direction, Martin.

      I currently couldn’t find my own arse with both hands, which is why I’ve not added much to the conversations on here of late.

  5. Glad to see you’re an enthusiast for Belle Meade, Josh, I backed it last night, only to learn earlier that the yard say they don’t fancy it much. Unlikely to shorten therefore, but I’m happy with the bet and will not lay off.

    1. oh i don’t like being swayed by trainer comments, especially with horses in that price range! Best sticking to your own eyes I think, especially with handicappers. Price just lured me in, and the pain of her somehow winning at those odds, not tipped, would have been too much! She will pop up at some point no doubt, some ok form in career to date, but they have yet to find key. mark should hit a winnable level in handicaps one day, hopefully today!
      Josh

  6. COLINS BETS
    Market Rasen
    2.50 Big Picture
    Catterick
    4.55 Foxtrot Knight
    Doncaster
    6.00 God Willing
    Goodwood
    7.45 Tricky Spirit
    Bath
    7.25 Sir Plato
    7.25 Arctic Sea
    7.55 Waseem Faris

    May turned out to be a disappointing month the worst ever for me Minus – 34.67 points at Bookmakers SP,those on BOG would not be down so much one won the other day 16/1 widely available SP 8/1.
    Again can only stress that you need a suitable bank.

    1. I don’t back anything under 3/1 and wouldn’t have always shopped around for best prices but I am only -5.5 down since 30/4 using bookies and BOG and I wouldn’t have had Parole as was away last weekend.

      1. Nick thanks for putting up your returns which puts it how valuable BOG is and why Bookmakers are quick to restrict accounts.

        If anyone is using BOG would you kindly record your returns from today till the end of the month so we all can see the difference at the end of the month.
        Thanks
        Colin

  7. Hi Josh I agree with Sir plato should have a good chance of ending your miserable run he ticks a lot of boxes for me right age good win ratio and the right trip and bath is rod millman 4 th best track for number of winners have rode in with you happy days maybe paul

    1. I hope so Paul! I was due one in fairness…you can’t keep up around 60%+ ROI banging in 8s/10s+ winners galore forever haah. Maybe i’m just best on Festivals/jumps…but that Sept/Oct profit on Flat gives me confidence i’ll find my mojo on the level at some point. A losing run of -25 points or so is water off a ducks back with my approach and i’ve had a few of those in recent years, when it starts getting north of 40 I may start sweating. Just need it not to impact on my state of mind, which is did over bank holiday weekend and cost me 35 tipping points. I keep beating SP well enough, and plenty of placed horses…so doing something right and if I keep that up they will start winning again… Millmans was 14s and if his SP is 6s, that’s the way to go… I just hope he gets an easy lead as no excuses if so and young Watson has ridden a few all the way winners.
      GL, Josh

  8. Epsom ratings to 3 places.
    2.00 Maries Diamond….True Belief….Cotubanama.
    2.35 Masham……Donncha……Mythical Madness.
    3.10 [2].Cracksman…..Hawkbill.
    3.45. Ajman King……Zzoro…… Maratha.
    4.30. Wild Illusion……Magic Wand….Bye Bye Baby.
    5.15. [2]. Kings Shield……Lake Volta.
    5.50.Black Bess……Juanito Chico……Pastoral Player.

    There ya go.

    Tony Mc.

  9. well at last my betting gods have stopped fighting with one an another :O)) 1.40 mr
    took a chance of a jockey or horse mistake came from the henderson entry …….. hurrrrahhhh … backed ct’s to win and 2 squids on the o/s …… jobs a goodun only the ct’s horse finished ( or so i thought ?? ) just been paid out on the f/c as well on betfair ??? the o/s must have been remounted and finished the race in the end ???? unless betfair are just feeling sorry for me ?? …….. all future bets paid for already today .
    gl everyone else .. i have had all mine already !!! 🙂
    cheers
    bc 🙂

  10. WELL I AM AWFUL ( A LA DICK EMERY :o) ….. THANKS MARTIN FOR CLARIFICATION .. I THOUGHT YOU STILL COULD ??? …… BUT NO !! ….. I EXPECT BF TO WHIP IT BACK OF ME VERY SOON THEN !! 🙂
    GOTTA GO …. AND CONTINUE THE FIGHT AGAINST OUR SWORN ENEMENY 🙂
    TA
    BC

  11. Today’s Selections:
    Pixiepot 15:25 at Market Rasen @ 5.70

    Iona Days 16:45 at Market Rasen @ 6.20

    Foxtrot Knight 16:55 at Catterick @ 4.10

    Mitchum 17:30 at Catterick @ 9.40

  12. Hi Josh, been watching from a far as usual, some fantastic tipping and overall content as always really enjoying it
    A few weeks ago you put a link up for books that would be useful to read, can’t find it for love nor money, would you mind putting up again please. I go away on Wednesday and would like to take something decent with me (apart from the missus of course!!)
    Thank you

    1. HI Harry,
      here you go..it’s many pages in on the free reports/systems post…
      http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/11/29/racing-books-what-should-i-be-reading-this-christmas/

      Comments worth a read. I’d get Mordin’s betting for a living, if you haven’t, a timeless classic. And Paul Jones new book, £5 off via Geegeez, looks worth getting.. I need to order mine…

      https://www.geegeez.co.uk/paul-jones-from-soba-to-moldova-book-excerpt/

      I should add henrietta knights new book which is fascinating as is Kieron Fallon’s autobiography.

      Josh

      1. Thanks josh appreciate it
        Was getting fallon’s alongside anything you recommended
        Keep up the good work, following S1 & S6 on the flat & S2A & S3A on the jumps plus Nick & your good self
        Really enjoying it, need to find a way to get the blog in Turkey!!

        1. Good stuff Harry, that sounds like a decent systematic portfolio to me, and well on way to 100 points with any luck, which I’d like to think is a good target for any such portfolio, less definitely more. + any ‘tips’ and you’ve been here for a while so hopefully plenty of tipping points from me in the bank! S3A ‘double/treble’ rated is always an option to narrow down S3A if ever needed, across both flat/jumps…that’s looking good/solid. S4 looking ok on flat also, but they tend to be shorter and prob case not to back anything under 3s, generally, suspect they just pay for themselves but that’s a hunch. Anyway, you should be having some fun with those!
          Fingers crossed you find a solution, I am due a tipping burst again at some point soon haha.
          Josh

  13. Well done Josh, cream rises to the top! All 3 horses ran a blinder. Keep up the excellent work.

    Pat

    1. cheers Pat, yep they did…interesting tactics on the Barron one, blast one out that is stepping up in trip!! Both those biggies have handicaps in them and we will nab them when they do. needed that just for the head, but I read Epsom fairly well, many have been placing/well backed etc, so in theory just a matter of time, would like to get that north of +50 though asap, but it will get there.

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