Members Daily Post: 31/05/18 (complete)

NOTES x2, Section 1 (comp) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Lingfield

2.40 – Guards Chapel (micro dist) 14 H3 7/1 UP

3.10 – Hints Of Grey (m dist) 14 H3 G1 5/1 S2 WON 5/1>3/1 

3.40 – Fast And Hot (all hncps) w1 H3 I1 5/1 S2  UP

 

Hamilton

2.30 –

Sfumato (all hncps) I3 12/1 UP (3rd,needs 6f I think) 

Lexington Place (m age) H3 G3 9/2 S5 UP

3.30 –

Jabbaar (all hncps) w1 H1 I3 G3 6/5 S2 S4 2nd 

Restive (all hncps) I1 7/1 S6 UP 12/1 

4.00 – Song Of Summer (all hncps) H3 I3 G3  9/2 S4 S5 3rd 7/2 

4.30 – Colour Contrast (all hncps) H1 G3 11/4 S2 2nd 

 

JUMPS

Ffos Las 

7.00 –

Abbreviate (all hncps) 8/1 UP

Belmount (m TJC) 12/1 S2  UP

8.30 –

Atomic Rumble (m dist) (handicap debut) 10/1 S2 WON 10/1>5/1 

Oscar Sunset (m runs) ES 25/1 S2A S3  UP 25/1>14/1 

9.00 –

Double Court (m TJC) 20/1 S2A UP

Marble Moon (m dist/hncp debut/runs) (handicap debut) 14 ES 9/2 S3  WON 9/2>7/2 (30p R4) 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/110,35p, +1.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

8.30 Ffos Las – Oscar Sunset – 1 point win – 25/1 (gen) UP 25/1>14/1

5.00 Hamilton- Admiral Rooke – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) 3rd 10/1>8/1 (no excuse there really, travelled like the winner but failed to really pick up…unsure whether trip just got him or the ground, or that’s as good as he is…he is maybe running out of excuses. Maybe he is just a bridle horse. Another place)

Oscar Sunset… 25s has lured me in given his old form against all race conditions, a CD win to his name and being 12lb below his last winning mark. He is 11 and did PU LTO, hence why I wanted a big price, but with 25s shots you’re often forgiving them for something. Despite his age he’s only had 21 runs under rules and is 4/12,7p in all hurdles, 2/10,5p in handicap hurdles. Last time out he returned after another lengthy absence in a C2 at Cheltenham. I would like to think he was there for the run. He steps back up in trip and down in class, returning to a venue he likes. He has won and run well after PUs before in his career. The ground is a niggle, given his best form is with cut, but given how fragile he’s been I can’t think Evan would risk him if he thought he wouldn’t handle it and it’s more a case of an unknown, rather than a known known! He ran ok on it at Market Rasen last May where he was outpaced more than anything, and these are the calmest waters he’s been in for some time. The trainer is also ‘in form’ which helps. So, it’s clearly a poke, but there was more than enough there at 25s for me, in what looks an open enough contest. Clearly some younger legs may have him but he is no forlorn hope.

Admiral Rooke… I was going to bottle this one with another 1/4 point jobby, but i’ll be more annoyed if he wins this and 10s is just about big enough to overlook my main niggle… I tipped this one LTO having thought his run before at Ponte looked eye-catching. At Beverley he looked to do a bit too much early and looked a bit one paced. He steps up in trip here, the furthest he’s been, and Mulrennan jumps back on. That was enough really to elevate him to 1 point territory and he is also in the top 3 across all three ratings sets. The main niggle is the going, but that isn’t conclusive as yet and given they keep running him on it they must think it is ok… there is a chance he travels well again and doesn’t put down on it, and if that happens I can’t justify touching him again until he runs with cut. Hopefully this trip and stiff climb to the line is the making of him. 10s was fair just to find out, as he really did look interesting on that Ponte run, despite that race not throwing up any winners as yet.

That will be all for tips. 

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Elsewhere…it’s possible I’ve tipped the wrong Williams horse but it’s a game of price… Marble Moon is fascinating and were he 10s/12s+ I would have tipped him. But he’s not. He ran ok in bumpers on good ground and this is his first run on such a surface since, having been running in heavy ground novice hurdles. He takes a slight step up in trip on handicap hurdle debut, drops in class/into a weak|open handicap, and Wedge takes over. This is at a track where Williams has handicap debutant winners in both codes. He does have a fascinating profile. He either isn’t very good or these conditions will see massive improvement and he could win like a horse with stacks in hand. But, with this profile, I do like a bigger price. We shall see if I have got that right or not.

 

 

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re-cap…well that’s the kind of losing day I can more than live with ..annoying in the context of the recent picture, but all three comfortably beat SP, even after R4s taken into account, and the two flat horses looked like winning for a long way…Fahey’s flat runner ran well, but suffered from mental immaturity I think. He looked to be travelling the best and only gave out late, not beaten far. He didn’t really seem to know what to do when coming under pressure. He looked to handle the ground well enough and may be better on faster. I doubt he will open 10s NTO but is one to keep an eye on as he showed enough ability there to win races. The Fell horse was painful viewing as the jockey sat motionless and when he asked for an effort I thought he may just kick on and grind away. I think he has stayed well enough, just outstayed at the end, in testing conditions. Ironically, given his liking for softer conditions it seems, the amount of rain they had may have done for his chance. He has wins in him, and if I keep getting 9s about 4/1 shots, that notes total will eventually start to move in the right direction again. If 35 out of every 110 bets finishes in the money there won’t be any problems in the long term. A short term blip and I’ll try and keep my head in the right place. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

6.30 FL- Minella Gathering

7.00 FL- Vice Et Vertu WON 25/1>14/1

Flat 

R Fell

2.30 Ham- Dapper Man WON 7/2>6/1 

5.00 Ham- Plansina UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

+298…the magic number…

More praise… well it seems many of us had a good day on Wednesday, mainly thanks to Nick! (again) I’m going to have to get an exclusivity contract written up at some point I feel! 🙂 For info, and in the context of providing information in order for you to make informed choices about who/what you follow, he is on +298 points (mainly to 1 point EW) since tipping with a staking amount from 1st September 2017. He is over 200 points up in 2018, and hit the +70 odd points or so mark in May, which could well be his best ever month. And don’t forget, it started out like it could be his worst, hitting around -20 in the first couple of weeks of May. (approx, tbc) That’s how quickly it can change when you play at big odds. While i’d like to think everyone in these parts may be getting better over time, when you play at big odds, there will be long fallow periods and big spikes, hence the importance of a bank and consistent/steady staking. (on that point, and not to sound like the Grinch, that was the first time Nick has tipped two winners in a day on his official tips since November, and if you’d backed doubles/multiples each day/regularly just on his tips alone, I can only think you’d have lost a fair whack already?? Clearly for a bit of fun every now and then it can pay dividends, especially if you take a strong view on certain tips, but Nick does advise level stakes for a reason. But, you are clearly free to do what you please and some of you seemed to do very very well on Wednesday, so well done. Cue another double now, just like busses. I think Martin copped the biggest payout from content on this blog since one of you scooped over 11k from the forecast in the Martin Pipe hurdle. Happy days) 

I do have a friendly competitive streak and Nick and I have been driving each other on for a good while now I think. And well, he’s just gone ahead of me. I think i’m on +288.25 points in the same period with all my ‘tips’, so, i’ve now got some work to do! 🙂 Still, +586.25 points between the two of us in 9 months isn’t too shabby but you can’t rest on your laurels in this game and i’m currently in the mire and need to up my game, which I will.  Nick will want to stay ahead of me…poor bookies. Many of you have been chipping into the tipping profits also, and long may it continue. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. Thanks for the kind words guys. Will do my best to keep it up. Just the one for tomorrow:

    Court King Ffos Las Thursday 19:00 1pt e/w

          1. very commendable comments chaps, it’s nice to hear people helping others when something great happens in your life. I would have surely done something similar had my phone not gone flat today and managed to see Nick’s tips! great work all round.

  2. Just to add my thanks to Nick. I had both winners today but sadly didn’t do the double or Yankee. Still a cracking day though.

    On the AW front, another winner yesterday with Rustang @ 5/1 but not enough to make a profit. -3pts on the day.

    Two more meetings at Wolves and Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    Wolves
    2.50 Lucky Lucky Man 6/1
    3.20 Houlton 6/1

    Chelmsford
    9.10 Caracas 7/1 & Karam Albaari 9/2

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

  3. Evening guys, just after a little advice. Im off on holiday next week(crete) but still fancy a bet if i can. Is it possible?? Some bookies will probably be quite strict i imagine

    1. Some bookies will work with no problems. I’ve found in the past that I couldn’t place bets directly with 365, but I could via Oddschecker.

      You could probably download a VPN for your phone / tablet as well – I’ve used Tunnelbear in the past – which would allow you to pretend you’re in the UK.

        1. I was also able to use oddschecker abroad recently as long as I was connected to 3G/4G but not via WiFi.

          1. Hi, I use VPN Strong whilst in Spain, its the only one that will allow you to use B365 .

  4. The great thing about this site – and there are many – is somebody always seems to be in form, the portfolio approach working a treat, so thanks guys, I follow Nick, Colin & Josh

  5. awake bright and early so enough time to look through the card at Lingfield, low grade stuff but 3 have stood out for me.
    1-40. don’t normally do shorties but Ventura Magic 7-4 dropping down in grade and SDS on board looks attractive even at the price . 1pt win.
    2-40. All About The Pace 10-1, still a maiden after 12 races but could come on from her well beaten 2nd lto and won’t get a better chance than this to break her duck. 1/2 pt ew
    3-10. Moojaned 7-1 BV lower in other places, looks to be down to a very winnable mark if fit after a break. 1/2 pt ew

  6. Annual trip to Saundersfoot this week so I’m off to Ffos Las tonight. No time to do any study so will be using notes and tips mentioned here. In terms off betting abroad I’ve used the Paddy Power text service in France and Spain no problem. Charges weren’t prohibitive as I recall but best to check with your provider! Stick your bets for the day in 1 text to save as well.

  7. After yesterdays jackpot we move on today with another tough looking day. I was going to tip Admiral Rooke based upon his jog around previously. He is either prepping for something or just a bit dodgy. I am on at 10/1 but wont tip it as Josh has already done so.
    Nick’s selection Court King is being backed I see. i have sent Nick some bottles of his favoured tipple for his efforts yesterday.
    I am going through the Oaks and Derby fields at present.

    1. Hi Josh your free tips in the race along with Nicks tip make it a busy race as my Syndicate horse Timeforwest is also in the race and we are hoping for good run
      Hopefully one of them will come out on top it will be a good race to watch unfortunately cannot get to Ffos Las as quite a trek from Manchester for an evening meeting

      Peter L

      1. Good luck Peter, I did look at her and she is another who wouldn’t shock me if she put up a better performance, certainly on her hurdles runs you’d think this ground may suit just fine and she clearly stays. Best of luck, a decent profit if one of them wins, even with four covered!! Fingers crossed.
        Josh

        1. Thanks Josh so long as they all come back safe then we can only hope for a profit on the race

          Peter L

  8. COLINS BETS
    Lingfield
    2.40 Jackblack
    2.40 All About The Pace
    2.40 Too Many Shots
    Ffos Las
    6.30 Gone Platinum
    Chelmsford
    7.10 Vale Of Kent

    Gone for the 3 bets in the 2.40 if the fav wins loss on the race should be minimal,however Too Many Shots as Pat Dodds in the plate for the first time,All About The Pace was 2nd last time with Haley Turner aboard and she recommended the Hood to be fitted today for the first time so would not be surprised if one of these two won.

  9. Only one LTO losers today Josh has already “tipped” in the notes.

    I would like to add my thanks to Nick also for yesterday.

    Mike

    1. Ah yes, so he is! Good spot, missed that. Yep any top rated + a top 3 (so 2nd/3rd rated) is a S2, odds irrelevant.
      Josh

  10. Todays selections; 31.5.18
    Zac Brown 18:40 at Chelmsford @ 5.90
    Vale Of Kent 19:10 at Chelmsford @ 4.00
    Awesometank 19:40 at Chelmsford @ 4.50
    Dark Side Dream 20:40 at Chelmsford @ 9.60

  11. Ffos Las update. Backed both system horses in the 8.30. Got 14/1 Atomic Rumble opening price. Backed into 5’s. Not the first time on the annual trip down here where money has come for one of Bowen’s and it wins. Local whispers….

    1. Good stuff, well done. I stared and stared at him at 10s this morning but not sure why I didn’t even mention him… another handicap debutant like the Jonjo one at Huntingdon the other day, that was rock bottom on HRB ratings and some way behind the rest… I wanted a bigger price but got that wrong…handicap debut, Bowen 4/17,7p with those in last 2 years… no trip move really, or a big change in ground…and I wanted to see more LTO, as he was properly stuffed although in hindsight that was after 3+ months off, and he clearly was a handicap plot job, dropped into a C5, Sean back in the saddle. Quite happy to leave May behind. Although I haven’t been reading the jumps notes horses well for an age, so some pondering there.

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