91.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.Any general messages/updates etc
1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
4.00- Carlton Frankie (micro TJC) H1 I1 G1 5/2 S1 S4 WON 5/2>7/4
Arctic Sea (all hncps) I3 G1 4/1 S2 UP (unlucky,would have won but for clear run)
Sayesse (m dist) H1 I1 G3 8/1 S1 S2 S4 S6 UP
Good Luck Charm (m going) 14 I3 7/1 UP
Sussex Girl (all hncps) w2 G1 6/1 S6
Stormingin (m class/going) 14 H1 I3 G3 11/10 S2 S4
7.50 – Roy Rocket (all hncps) H3 I3 2/1
H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
I1/I3 = Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3
14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ + (rationale/ angles in link above)
S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start. w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)
‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end6th May 2018)
‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 6th May 2018)
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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)
Test/trial : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/106,33p, +5.5) (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)
6.20 Bright- Sayesse – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP, didn’t do much at all there really, and had a fairly frenetic pace to aim at.
That will be all for ‘tips’.
To my eyes 7s is just too big for this horse in this race and I can only think he was put in at those odds due to that last run at Yarmouth- the fact he returns just 6 days later here suggests we can just put a line through that. Whether or not something upset him, or the ground was as hard as when Blessed ran there a couple of weeks ago (she changed legs 7 times in the race) and he just didn’t fancy it, who knows. The fact he’s won on GS may suggest that he doesn’t want it like a road, even with the odd decent run on ‘good to firm/firm’. I think the form of his last run is built into the odds, in the context of this race/the oppo. If one track gets a drenching today it’s likely to be Brighton and with a win on GS he shouldn’t mind what the whether does, and if there is rain it may inconvenience others. If he came here on the back of his effort over CD three runs back, he’d be joint 7/2 fav. On his penultimate start he ran over 8f in a C3, and ran like a non stayer, certainly at that class. He is 1/2,2p here and this is only his 3rd ever turf run over 7f – he is unexposed over the trip. Callum Sheppard jumps back aboard and these two have a good record together, 1/4,2p. How Black Caesar is half the odds is anyones guess, given in that run here on the 24th when Sayesse came second he was around 8l ahead of him. Maybe they will be closer today but if the selection runs his race, he should finish ahead of him on my reading of things. The horse had some decent form as a 3YO last year, with wins at C3 level, and off a mark of 83 on Turf, so he’s back below his last winning turf mark, with some decent placed efforts off higher. The horse can be slow away and as with any horse that races at Brighton, probably thinks about the game a bit too much sometimes! If on a going day, and if repeating that run here 3 starts back, I think he beats this lot. There is the odd bit of pace and hopefully it’s run at a decent clip but in any case hopefully CS (who’s also in form and riding well) is switched on and gets after him early, as he sees this trip out well on the evidence of his last run here. In any case, more than happy to have a dart at 7s here. I can leave Arctic Sea at 4s given the first time blinkers and he runs as if 7f in a small field here may be too sharp- although if the blinkers work maybe they will try and make all. I don’t think he wants rain but he is unexposed and a danger. I can leave the 9 YO of Gary Moore’s and will cope just fine if he takes this. The yard is in form and they remove the headgear, which can work equal wonders to putting it on.
Re-cap… sometimes you just have to smile, or cry… but it’s fare to say that my infamous Opus Dei kit, which hasn’t been in use since before Xmas, has been in overdrive this afternoon, blood everywhere. (metaphorically speaking!) Betting on horses, and certainly tipping, is all in the head, and if you’re not in the right frame of mind, you can get it very wrong. Had I tipped some winners recently and that ‘notes’ profit pile were on 35+ points say, it’s highly likely I’d have tipped the 5 horses mentioned in section 2 on Monday, (underlined/italic/bold…which, as touched on before, is some indication that I have something on, usually a 1/4 point, sometimes 1/2) and we’d be sat here on 2/5,3p, +33 points for the day, +38.5 overall.
Quite simply, I have bottled it. That’s a result of the losing run and the resulting lack of confidence. I had consciously become scared of losing in recent days, and that isn’t a good place to be in! That mindset makes you raise the threshold for something becoming a tip, almost looking for a perfection which doesn’t exist,and hiding behind ‘mentioning’ a horse, as a sort of safety blanket. The point of moving from a ‘bet of the day’ approach, to a ‘notes’ approach was exactly for days like Monday – it is meant to liberate my thinking and give horses at a price more of a chance. Instead I have become consumed by self doubt- which is exactly the opposite of my March-April Festival tipping bonanza mindset. It’s a funny old game. Part of my problem is that I have started thinking about my tipping point stake- £20- and mentioning it as a factor…which is just bollocks quite frankly. Whether I’m betting £1, £5 or £100, it shouldn’t be impacting on whether a horse becomes a tip. Nor should a losing run north of 20, not at the odds I play at. So, I need to eradicate that thinking.
Those two winners could have been tipped..why…
Clemento- the ‘way in’ was that he was a previous tip at some point on his last three runs, at Catterick I think, and was now running first time up in a novice hurdle. The trainer stats and the fact he was 20/1 should have just tipped me over the edge. The trainer was ‘in form’ and he was 2/6,5p at the track in non handicap hurdles in the previous 5 years, 3/9,7p at the track in total in that time. They generally run their race. He was in the could be anything category in this sphere and those stats would suggest he was here to run his race if good enough. 20/1. Roll the dice. That’s a price where, given the trainer, you can take a chance on their first start over hurdles.
Parole – tipped three days ago at 25/1 at Pontefract… the core reason being as it is for many flat horses…unexposed and more to come one day, this one already had some decent form in the book, at a decent enough level. He moved up in class here which I wasn’t concerned about given the odd run last year. He was better drawn today and moved up in distance- which was obvious would suit. There were excuses for his run LTO, I part thought ground, but also the jockey made no effort to get a decent position, travelling 5 wide. The ‘ground’ niggle was a bottle job, and I knew while I was typing. Yes both his handicap wins has come with cut..but, when a horse hasn’t even run on Good to Firm, how the hell can you say that they won’t handle it?? He hadn’t proven it, and in any case, trusting going descriptions without the use of times on the day is always precarious. In that situation it comes down to price..16s/18s is big enough, given the other positives and the fact he was tipped LTO, to take a chance on the going. Poor.
Still, I’ll take the positives – previous tips are proving a very good ‘way in’ and the fact those 5 horses were mentioned/underlined/italics/bold is some indication that I’m doing something right in the analysis, just not that final step, which is for the reasons discussed above. For someone who’s tipped +295 points of winners since Sept 1st at a ROI that I think is north of 60/70%, you would have thought confidence wouldn’t be a problem. Work to do, but in any case I hope some of you backed one or more of those winners today, and Jumps S2A followers had a 16/1 winner to cheer also. (and that profit pile is where it is because I’m very hard on myself, which is necessary in this game, especially when your drive is solving the puzzle and being right, and that’s something you haven’t been doing recently!)
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.Any general messages/updates etc
5 Furlong Sprint Handicaps – Test (0/3,3p, -2)
6.10 Wolvs – Krystallite – 5/1- 6/1 2nd – went off far too hard I think, probably clings on with a more patient ride out in front, but inexperienced jockey so can’t moan too much, he will learn from that.
Two third places yesterday and given my approach with this test with any luck most of them will run well/be close to the money. Remember I’m using Geegeez + Inform Speed ratings as my ‘way in’ – focussing on those near the top of the speed ratings, and then seeing if I can make a case at the odds. This one has won after a similar break here before and I think there is every chance she can attempt to make all, if sharp enough and getting away. I think she may be the sort who sulks if not leading so we may know our fate early. The jockey has some decent stats to his name for a 7lb claimer and she is well handicapped with that taken off. Given her record after a break, she’s worth an interest (for test purposes! Don’t go backing these just yet unless you use these as a ‘way in’ and come to your own decision)
The other race of interest was the 4.00 Redcar…Carlton Frankie would be the one in the 4.00 but her price is long gone. She was 10/3 last night which looks decent now! I expect her to blast out, make all, and this mediocre bunch won’t have seen which way she’s gone. She should be doing that anyway, given her last two runs in decent C2s, this being a not so decent C4. The hood comes on, and provided this doesn’t come too soon, should be bang there/winning eased down/a shade cosily.
NOTE: I’m training it back up to Liverpool today, I’ll be back by 5 pm or so and Wednesday’s post should be up around the usual time. I think I’m off to Cartmel for the first time on Wednesday, although I fear it could be a wash out. But I’ll have a good look at the card. Later in the week I will focus on Epsom, and see if any trainer stats/trends. I like attacking ‘The Dash’ for interest and one member has emailed asking for some ‘through the card’ notes for the two days, so I’ll see what I can do, and also one of you is off to Musselburgh on the Sat also and has bravely requested some thoughts. I’ll get the coffee ready for Friday 🙂 I’ll also record some videos. I have just Ffos Las and Newmarket July course to complete on the Flat stats pack, and will get that done this week, and I think the Summer Jumps is done also. And I’ll get results updated/links in Key updates/welcome info|guidance for the Flat strategies/content updated.